Podcast Summary: The Exchange – “Big Gains for Small Caps, Health of Housing & Holid-AI Shopping”

CNBC | November 26, 2025
Host: Dominic Chu (in for Kelly Evans)

Overview

This episode of The Exchange dives into several key themes shaping up business, markets, and consumer life as year-end approaches:

• A strong rally in small-cap stocks and whether the setup is right for continued outperformance.
• The impact of anticipated rate cuts, tax and regulatory shifts, and their macroeconomic implications.
• Sector deep-dives: small cap momentum, the shifting housing market, and turbulence for tech names like Oracle and Nvidia.
• A special focus on how Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming holiday retail and consumer shopping.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Momentum: Small Caps Surge

(00:34–07:14; 07:15–11:49)

Factors Driving the Rally

• Stocks are tracking higher for the week, with the Russell 2000 (small caps) notably up over 4% since Monday, handily beating major indexes.
• Rate cut hopes (potentially in December) and expectations of fiscal stimulus (“the one big beautiful Bill act”) are energizing risk assets.

Bill Stone (CIO, Glenview Trust Company) on Macro Catalysts

• Fiscal policy—including consumer and corporate tax cuts—is set to provide “a shot in the arm” for the economy going into 2026.
• “As long as we can kind of hold it together until then…that gives us an even better chance to get it kind of restarted and get going again.” (Bill Stone, 02:20)
• Market not pricing in a recession. Rate cuts and stimulus may keep this optimism intact.
• Hopes for “broader market participation,” with small caps finally joining big tech and other leaders.

Stock Picks for 2026

• Sherwin Williams (Ohio): Play on housing recovery, “very high quality.”
• Domino’s Pizza (Michigan): Growth, inflation-resistant input costs, strong e-presence, and institutional buying.
  • “If you don’t believe me, Berkshire Hathaway now owns over 8% of that company.” (Bill Stone, 06:29)

Chris Retzler (Needham Small Cap Growth Fund) on Small Cap Set Up

• Fed cuts and possible 2026 tax cuts increase market liquidity that should benefit small/mid cap companies.
• “They trade a lot less liquidity. So it doesn't take a lot of money to flow into the asset class.” (Chris Retzler, 08:54)
• Favorite themes: Infrastructure, military modernization (e.g., Parsons), automation and robotics (Cognex), factory/reshoring bets.
• Acknowledges recent underperformance versus “Mag 7,” but expects aggressive buybacks and insider buying to signal bullishness.

2. Tech Movers: Oracle’s AI Woes

(12:58–18:48)

Oracle’s Turbulence

• Shares have dropped over 20% this month, 40% from year’s high. Worries center on debt load and OpenAI exposure.
• Alex Heisel (Rothschild/Redburn): Maintains sell rating.
  • “We continue to see like these GPU deployments being very, very low value… for every CapEx dollar you spend, you only generate 20 cents in NPV…” (Alex Heisel, 14:45)
• Oracle’s “remaining performance obligations” (RPOs) no longer reassure—debt and long-term lease obligations to fund cloud expansion could be value-destructive.
• Heisel would consider a buy if price sank to $130–$150 range and the cloud business (OCI) was valued more conservatively.

3. Housing Market: From Seller’s Boom to Buyer’s Lull

(24:32–29:32)

Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman on the Cooling Market

• “We’ve just had a massive shift from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market, the first shift in at least a decade.” (Glenn Kelman, 25:09)
• Sellers pulling homes at the fastest rate in a decade; many opting to try again post-holiday. Volume is down, but prices haven’t materially corrected.
• “Sales volume is down as much as 50% in some markets, but prices are about the same.” (Kelman, 26:46)
• Geography notes:
  • Coldest: Florida, Texas (big pandemic run-ups, now most stale listings), D.C. (uncertainty over federal jobs).
  • Midwest is “where it’s at”—affordable homes, more resilient demand (Detroit, Pittsburgh, Chicago).
• Standoff: “Sellers are going to hope for the best and buyers are going to wait for a better deal.” (Kelman, 27:35)

4. Retail and Holiday Shopping: “Holid-AI”

(30:26–39:04)

Julia Boorstin (CNBC) on AI’s Breakthrough in Retail

• “More than three quarters of shoppers say they plan to use AI for assistance with holiday shopping. That’s up from 40% last year.” (Boorstin, 30:26)
• AI platforms like OpenAI (partnerships with PayPal, Walmart), Google Gemini, and Perplexity are rapidly integrating purchase tools.
  • AI agents projected to account for 21% of all global holiday orders ($263B in sales; Salesforce data).
• The downside: brands wary of “loss of relationship” as AI intermediates purchases. “It kind of gets rid of brand loyalty.” (Boorstin, 32:20)

Shikha Jain (Simon Kucher) on Consumer Attitudes

• 54% in Simon Kucher’s survey plan to use AI this shopping season.
  • Most common: product reviews, price tracking, deal hunting, idea generation.
  • 46% cite desire for human touch/personalized gifting as main barrier.
• Demographics: younger shoppers (Gen Z, millennials) most likely adopters, but “even younger people are saying loss of that human element” is a concern. (Jain, 35:15)
• Spending trend: Modest 6% YoY increase, but largely due to inflation/tariffs—not more goods.
  • “They're planning to participate a lot less in Black Friday and Cyber Monday because of the anticipation of higher prices.” (Jain, 37:25)
• Hot categories: Experiences (travel, dining, gift cards), furniture/appliances for millennials, staples like toys and beauty.

5. Airlines, Nvidia, and the China Chip Battle

(39:37–46:36)

Thanksgiving Travel & Airline Picture (Phil LeBeau)

• Record 31 million flyers expected, busiest Thanksgiving ever.
• “The leisure market has largely stayed in place for the airlines…corporate travel went away, and that's probably not going to be made up.” (LeBeau, 41:38)
• Fiscal-year guidance for airlines has held amid robust holiday travel and only limited disruptions.

Nvidia & Chinese Competition (Deirdre Bosa)

• More Threads, China’s first domestic GPU maker, to IPO in Shanghai—4,100 times oversubscribed.
• “China's industry is fragmented, it is subsidy-dependent, and they still lag American chips by generations. Yet Nvidia itself is warning investors to pay attention.” (Bosa, 43:06)
• High-level U.S.-China tech decoupling continues: Alibaba, Baidu may be restricted from U.S. markets due to defense ties.
• “They may never get there, but they're certainly trying everything they can.” (Bosa, 44:59)

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On stimulus and tax cuts:
  “As long as we can kind of hold it together until then…that gives us an even better chance to get it kind of restarted and get going again.”
  — Bill Stone, Glenview Trust (02:20)

• On brands and AI shopping:
  “If you're dealing with an AI agent, it kind of gets rid of brand loyalty.”
  — Julia Boorstin, CNBC (32:20)

• On housing market transition:
  “We’ve just had a massive shift from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market, the first shift in at least a decade.”
  — Glenn Kelman, Redfin (25:09)

• On Oracle’s AI investments:
  “For every CapEx dollar you spend, you only generate 20 cents in NPV.”
  — Alex Heisel, Redburn (14:45)

• On Chinese GPU progress:
  “China’s industry is fragmented…yet Nvidia itself is warning investors to pay attention.”
  — Deirdre Bosa, CNBC (43:06)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Small caps surge & market outlook: 00:34–11:49
• Oracle’s AI blues: 12:58–18:48
• Housing market chill: 24:32–29:32
• AI & Holiday Retail: 30:26–39:04
• Thanksgiving travel & airlines: 39:37–42:22
• China’s GPU ambitions & Nvidia: 43:06–46:36

Conclusion

The Exchange delivers a brisk, info-packed rundown of market movers heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. The episode provides actionable ideas (e.g., stock picks in small and mid caps), sharp warnings about over-loved tech names, context for a frozen housing market, and a forward-looking take on AI’s transformative effects—especially in retail. Emerging competition for Nvidia and ongoing U.S.–China tech rivalry frame how rapidly global market landscapes can shift.

If you missed it, this holiday-tinged episode is a must-listen for investors, homeowners, and anyone curious about how AI and macro trends will shape the coming season.