The Exchange – "Clash of the Kevins, 2025's Biggest IPO & Reels Hit a Bigger Screen"

CNBC, December 16, 2025 | Host: Kelly Evans

Brief Overview

On this episode of CNBC’s The Exchange, host Kelly Evans and a roundtable of top analysts examine the current state of the U.S. economy and markets, the uncertain future leadership of the Federal Reserve (“the Clash of the Kevins”), the Medline IPO—potentially the largest in years—and the evolving landscape of media and tech, including Instagram Reels' expansion to TV. The discussion is timely and wide-ranging, touching on labor market “funkiness,” stickier inflation, challenges and opportunities in tech, and the shifting tides in retail, healthcare, and IPOs.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Economic Data Breakdown: A "Funky" Labor Market

• Participants: Kelly Evans, Steve Liesman (CNBC), Diane Swonk (KPMG)
• Highlights:
  • "Funky" Jobs Data: The delayed jobs report shows lackluster gains and a 4-year high unemployment rate, indicating a transitional labor market (00:43–04:08).
  • Household & Government Shifts: Moribund private hiring vs. significant federal layoffs raise questions about future employment for government workers (02:16–03:17).
  • Consumer Resilience: Despite labor headwinds, core retail sales were stronger than headlines suggested, with upward revisions for prior months. Consumers are spending, treating tax cuts as windfalls, which may further entrench inflation (04:08–05:37).
  • Fed’s Dilemma: The divide at the Fed mirrors economic uncertainty, with some policymakers pushing for rate cuts amid sticky inflation data (05:37–07:54).
  • Monetary Policy Nuance: Discussion of the Fed's current “QE-light” liquidity operations—while not true easing, technical adjustments have marginal impacts (07:54–09:39).
  • Small Business Pain: The ADP report shows small businesses have shed a quarter-million jobs amid reciprocal tariffs, versus previous growth—a troubling signal for robust job recovery (10:52–11:39).
• Memorable Quotes:
  • Steve Liesman: “I don't know if funky is an official economic term, but I'm going to go with it.” (02:16)
  • Diane Swonk: “We have a labor market with a one-legged stool. Health care and social assistance is driving all employment gains in the private sector… That’s nothing to be excited about.” (06:23)

2. Fed Chair Speculation: The "Clash of the Kevins"

• Participants: Kelly Evans, Dan Clifton (Strategas)
• Highlights:
  • Who Will Lead? Prediction markets have Kevin Hassett slightly ahead of Kevin Warsh for next Fed Chair, with both seen as competent choices (12:24–13:20).
  • Policy Implications: Both candidates believe in a productivity boom that may justify lower Fed Funds rates, but differ mainly on the balance sheet (13:20–15:42).
  • Balance Sheet Outlook: Warsh is seen as more hawkish, likely seeking a smaller Fed balance sheet, but current banking regulation makes immediate reduction difficult until financial deregulation (15:43–16:30).
  • Systemic Risk: The ongoing tug-of-war is rooted in broader fiscal imbalances, notably a $2T deficit, leaving policymakers with "bad options" for liquidity and stability (18:00–18:42).
• Memorable Quotes:
  • Dan Clifton: “You have two very qualified candidates… both Kevins believe that we’re in a productivity boom and that boom is going to allow the Fed funds rate to go lower.” (13:20)
  • “At the end of the day, you know what the real problem is, Kelly? It’s a $2 trillion budget deficit.” (18:14)

3. Tesla Rally & Autonomous Driving’s Next Phase

• Participants: Kelly Evans, Victoria Green (G Squared Private Wealth)
• Highlights:
  • Tesla’s Upside: Stock surges near record highs as driverless robo-taxi tests roll out, even as rivals like Ford scale back EVs (21:08–21:42).
  • Autonomous Dream: Victoria Green sees upside even amid short-term volatility, emphasizing long-term value of full self-driving breakthroughs (21:42–22:40).
  • Uber’s Future: Despite Tesla’s moves, Uber’s platform and ecosystem may shield it from existential threats, and robo-taxis might actually help margins if incorporated (23:04–23:57).
  • Nike & FedEx: Analyst skepticism toward Nike’s growth story ("show me" quarter); cautious optimism for FedEx’s restructuring and continued e-commerce growth (24:26–26:21).
• Memorable Quotes:
  • Victoria Green: "This is the dream, right? If you actually get the Cyber Cab going, get full self driving, autonomous driving robo taxis. This is why Tesla doesn't trade like a traditional automotive company." (21:47)

4. IPO Spotlight: Medline’s Record-Breaking Debut

• Participants: Kelly Evans, Leslie Picker
• Highlights:
  • Medline’s Significance: Could be the biggest IPO since Rivian; seen as a test for private equity and for non-tech sectors dominating the public pipeline (28:05–31:53).
  • Business Model: Medline boasts resilient, “sticky” revenues, secular health tailwinds, and aggressive acquisition plans but holds substantial private equity debt (28:23–29:48).
  • Broader IPO Trends: AI-linked private firms (e.g. Databricks) still raise massive sums in private markets, but Medline’s move may signal a broader public window opening, especially for healthcare (30:13–31:53).
• Memorable Quote:
  • Leslie Picker: “It’s almost like we forgot how to spell IPO.” (28:23)

5. Market Movers & Regulatory Rumblings

• Markets: Stocks are down, led by energy as oil prices hit 4-year lows; crypto rallies on Visa’s announced support for USDC stablecoin settlements (34:14–35:29).
• Small Caps Forecast: Liz Ann Sonders (Schwab) argues for selectivity—fade unprofitable small caps, lean into higher-quality, profitable ones as market breadth improves, but earnings must hold up as economy slows (35:58–39:00).
• Tech Infrastructure Risk: Deirdre Bosa reports rising bipartisan scrutiny over data center energy costs—political pressure threatens to increase costs, shifting the tech regulatory debate from antitrust to utility bills, potentially impacting margins much faster (40:43–42:38).
• Memorable Quote:
  • Deirdre Bosa: "Political pressure can raise costs very quickly...they’re tying infrastructure costs directly to inflation, which is still the most sensitive voter issue." (40:43)

6. Media & Tech Evolution: Reels and the Connected TV Boom

• Participants: Kelly Evans, Julia Boorstin
• Highlights:
  • Instagram Reels on TV: Meta launches a TV app for Instagram Reels, chasing YouTube in the lucrative connected TV ad market (43:47–44:30).
  • Ad Market Shift: Connected TV ads command higher premiums and are expected to overtake linear TV by 2027 (44:31–44:54).
  • Battle Lines Blur: The convergence of short-form video, podcasts, and streaming is erasing divides between traditional platforms and social media, with Netflix and Meta both expanding offerings (44:59–46:56).
• Memorable Quotes:
  • Julia Boorstin: "All content is all attention and eyeballs. The question is just, are you watching on your phone? Are you watching on your screen? Are you multitasking? There are ads everywhere." (46:44)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Steve Liesman (on the labor market): “Will these federal government workers find jobs in the private sector? I’m reserving judgment about what the hell is going on until I figure out what the hell is going on. Can I say hell on TV?” (02:16–03:27)

• Diane Swonk (on inflation): “Even if we get a little improvement in the labor market, we're still going to have some stickier inflation. … Along with uncertainty, it is also normalizing inflation and it gives us this stagflationary nature. Even though the overall economy adds up on paper to look better than it feels to most Americans.” (06:23)

• Liz Ann Sonders (on small caps): “You want to fade the unprofitable, lower quality segments within small caps, but lean into the higher quality profitable segments.” (38:11)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Economic Roundtable: 00:43–12:00
• Fed Chair "Clash of the Kevins": 12:24–18:56
• Tesla, Uber, Nike, FedEx Outlook: 21:08–26:21
• Medline IPO Discussion: 28:05–31:53
• Market Movers/Small Caps: 34:14–39:43
• Tech Regulation Risks: 40:43–42:52
• Connected TV & Reels Expansion: 43:47–46:56

Final Takeaways

• The economic outlook remains cloudy, with transitions underway across labor, retail, and inflation, and policy choices looming large for 2026.
• The race for Fed Chair between “the Kevins” is viewed more in terms of subtle policy differences, particularly on balance sheet reduction and regulatory change.
• Innovation-led companies (Tesla, Meta) and sector rotations (healthcare IPOs, small caps) provide opportunities—but selectivity and an eye on regulatory risks remain crucial.
• The battle for ad dollars intensifies as content platforms blur the lines between TV, social, and streaming; connected TV is a major battleground for growth.

For listeners:

This episode distills a pivotal moment at the crossroads of markets, regulation, and technology, setting the tone for an eventful 2026.