The Exchange – CNBC

Episode: Coal Revival, Discounted Medications and AI in Banking
Air Date: September 30, 2025
Host(s): Melissa Lee, Seema Mody, Mike Santoli, Morgan Brennan

Episode Overview

This episode delivers a pulse check on U.S. markets amid looming government shutdown fears, evaluates the AI investment and cloud infrastructure landscape, examines the shifting U.S. energy strategy including nuclear and coal, discusses a pivotal drug pricing move by Pfizer, and explores how AI is fundamentally transforming banking workflows—all while highlighting the latest moves from flagship consumer and tech companies.

Key Segments & Discussion Points

1. Market Update & Government Shutdown Anxiety (01:31–03:54)

• Market sentiment: Stocks marginally lower but showing resilience in a strong quarter; NASDAQ up ~10% since July.
• Shutdown impact:
  • Melissa Lee and Seema Mody debate how much shutdown fears are baked into markets.
  • Concerns center on loss of government data for markets and a “soft patch” in consumer finance with rising bankruptcies and consumer delinquencies surfacing.

    “Working with less government data flow could become an issue. Looking below the surface, it’s a little heavy to be honest… a mosaic of a troubled consumer.” —Seema Mody [02:40]

• Consumer fragility: Indications of pre-recessionary consumer confidence and a stutter in the labor market seen in survey data.

2. AI Cloud Infrastructure: CoreWeave & Hyperscaler Investment (03:54–14:42)

CoreWeave’s Expansion and Industry Insight

• CoreWeave’s surge: Shares jump following $14B infrastructure deal with Meta; recent deals with OpenAI, Microsoft lessen customer concentration concerns.
• Expert guest: Amit Darianani (Evercore ISI) provides an industry assessment. > "Demand for infrastructure is far in excess of what supply is. Corby is positioned to benefit really, really well from having one of the largest independent GPU clusters…" —Amit Darianani [04:35]
• Risks:
  • Useful life of GPUs: Key to business viability; shorter lifecycles could undermine economics.
  • Middleman risk: As a middle layer, CoreWeave’s margins depend on supply scarcity and ability to layer on value-added software/services.
• Moat & Competition:
  • Sizeable GPU cluster and close Nvidia partnership give CoreWeave differentiation, but pricing power will fade as market matures and supply catches up.

AI CapEx & Market Implications

• Guest: Venu Krishna (Barclays)
• Hyperscaler strength:
  • The likes of Microsoft and Amazon are already monetizing AI via core operations and seeing productivity boosts.
  • Net margins for big tech up 200 bps last quarter.

    “In their core businesses… they’re already deploying and monetizing it… that’s the reason why big tech net margins actually improved almost 200 basis points.” —Venu Krishna [09:53]

• What if CapEx falls:
  • Krishna’s research finds a 20% drop in data center CapEx would mean a minor (3–4%) S&P earnings hit but could cut 10–13% from valuations due to narrative risk.

    “The risk is much higher on the valuation front… if you have a pullback in CapEx.” —Venu Krishna [12:28]

3. Washington Watch: Nuclear Power & the Coal Revival (15:03–25:35)

Energy Secretary Chris Wright Interview

• DOE nuclear pilot: Announcing grants for four companies (including OKLO) to rebuild domestic nuclear fuel production, reduce reliance on foreign (esp. Russian) sources. > “We’re going to give them grants and work with them to stand up the nuclear fuel cycle right here in the United States.” —Sec. Chris Wright [17:26]
• U.S. nuclear timeline: Realistically “two or three years, not two or three months” to bring new nuclear supply online.
• Using plutonium: Administration considering using excess plutonium in next-gen reactors, aiming to boost grid reliability and lower costs. > “Nuclear is the second largest source of US electricity and it works 24/7 whether the wind is blowing or the sun is shining.” —Sec. Chris Wright [19:07]
• Coal policy pivot:
  • Defense of coal as essential to grid reliability; blame assigned to previous closures for a 25% rise in electricity prices.

    “Coal is the third leg… backbone of our electricity system… let it compete in the marketplace. 16% of US electricity today, we need it.” —Sec. Chris Wright [21:25]

• AI’s demand surge:
  • To support AI and reindustrialization, aim is adding 100 GW of firm capacity in 5 years vs. prior plan to shut 100 GW.

    “To have the US lead in AI… we need to add about 100 gigawatts of firm capacity in the next five years.” —Sec. Chris Wright [23:20]

• Shutdown effect:
  • Government closure would hamper DOE’s progress; Wright faults delayed staff confirmations on Senate obstruction.

4. Drug Pricing: Pfizer's New Deal (28:38–32:13)

• Major news: President Trump announces Pfizer will offer all its prescription medications to Medicaid at most-favored-nation prices, with more firms rumored to follow. > “Today Pfizer is committing to offer all of their prescription medications to Medicaid and it will be at the most favored nation’s prices. It’s going to have a huge impact…” —President Trump (quoted by Venu Krishna) [28:38]
• Angelica Peebles reports:
  • The deal also includes a 3-year tariff exemption for Pfizer, direct-to-consumer sales via a new Trump Rx portal, and launch price parity with other countries.
  • Analysis: Impact more symbolic than financial for Pfizer—discounted drugs are largely older, lower-revenue ones.

    “These aren’t the huge blockbusters you might be familiar with… sounds like, yes, prices are coming down… Pfizer is not really giving up a whole lot here.” —Angelica Peebles [29:06]

• Strategic win: Uncertainty around tariffs and price controls is cleared, boosting investor confidence.

5. Tech & Consumer Check: Amazon, Nike, and Banking AI (36:23–48:17)

Nike Earnings Preview (36:23–39:35)

• Backdrop: Nike shares are at 2018 levels, facing stiff competition and excess inventory, but entering a hopeful transformation phase.
• Tariffs: Impact of stepped-up tariffs on sector costs, especially after recent U.S.-Vietnam trade negotiations, will be in focus.
• Brand health: Questions about brand strength versus upstarts after a pivot to “athleisure”; World Cup may provide a performance-oriented catalyst.

Amazon Device Event & Betting Expansion (41:31–47:01)

• Alexa+ launch: Amazon refreshes smart device lineup with generative AI-powered Alexa Plus.
  > “Customers are shopping more with the upgraded Alexa plus assistant, a sign that Gen AI powered commerce may be gaining traction.” —Mackenzie Segalis [41:31]
• Adoption hurdles: Early Alexa+ reviews mixed, and product lagging vs. OpenAI/Google.
• FanDuel partnership: Amazon to integrate real-time sports betting with FanDuel for Prime Video users. > “They have the interface, they have all the customers, all the information. Why not exploit it?” —Seema Mody [47:48]

AI in Banking: JPMorgan’s “LLM Suite” (43:32–46:04)

• Hugh Son exclusive: JPMorgan’s new portal leverages large language models to instantly generate investment banking materials, freeing up staff for higher-value tasks. > “LLM Suite was able to create an investment banking deck in about 30 seconds… Productivity is the payoff, it looks like.” —Melissa Lee & Seema Mody [45:54]
• Cultural challenge: Debate over whether AI automation deprives juniors of formative, detail-oriented training.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On government shutdown & markets:

  “Working with less government data flow could become an issue... a mosaic of a troubled consumer.” —Seema Mody [02:40]

• On CoreWeave’s business risks:

  “Corby makes a fundamental assumption … that the useful life of a GPU is five to six years. Is that truly going to hold up or is it going to be much lower?” —Amit Darianani [05:38]

• On tech CapEx risk:

  “The risk is much higher on the valuation front... if you have a pullback in CapEx.” —Venu Krishna [12:28]

• On coal’s role in the U.S. grid:

  “Coal is the third leg… backbone of our electricity system.” —Sec. Chris Wright [21:25]

• On new energy strategy for AI era:

  “To have the US lead in AI… we need to add about 100 gigawatts of firm capacity in the next five years.” —Sec. Chris Wright [23:20]

• On Pfizer’s pricing deal:

  “Pfizer is not really giving up a whole lot here… This gives investors certainty and again, you can see that reflected in the moves today.” —Angelica Peebles [29:06, 30:47]

• On JPMorgan’s use of AI:

  “LLM Suite was able to create an investment banking deck in about 30 seconds. Something that would normally take a team of junior bankers hours.” —Seema Mody [43:32]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:31] – Market recap and shutdown impact
• [03:54] – CoreWeave, AI infrastructure & investment discussion
• [09:53] – Venu Krishna on tech CapEx and market exposure
• [15:03] – Government shutdown brinkmanship and energy segment lead-in
• [17:00] – Sec. Chris Wright on U.S. nuclear & coal policy
• [28:38] – Pfizer’s Medicaid drug price deal announcement
• [36:23] – Nike earnings preview
• [41:31] – Amazon’s AI device event and Alexa+ launch
• [43:32] – JPMorgan's in-house AI (LLM Suite) demo and implications

Tone & Style

• Direct, data-driven, and pragmatic—CNBC’s panel remains focused on what matters to markets and investors, with brief, pointed analysis and pointed guest questions.
• Balanced skepticism— Experts weigh both sides of policy and company-specific news (“Pfizer win is more PR than profit hit,” “AI investment could mean valuation risk”).
• Conversational and brisk—Hosts intersperse industry insight with pithy asides (“super expensive stock. And it’s sort of paying the price for that as well … And super expensive bowls.” —Seema Mody [48:11]) while keeping the pace moving.

Conclusion

This episode of The Exchange offers a sweeping look across critical business and policy drivers: from the crosscurrents of AI and energy policy shaping corporate investment and market valuations, to high-profile corporate news (Amazon, Nike, Pfizer), and the disruptive edge of AI in banking. Listeners come away with a panoramic understanding of how today’s headlines—government gridlock, energy, pharmaceuticals, and AI—are converging to define the next chapter for U.S. business and investors.