The Exchange – CNBC

Episode: DeepSeek Redux?, Weighing down Netflix & Rate Cut Buys
Date: December 9, 2025
Host: Kelly Evans

Episode Overview

This episode explores the looming Fed rate cut decision, market implications across tech, streaming, and travel sectors, and the policy and business dynamics of U.S. chip exports to China. Highlighted segments examine whether the current economic data justifies a rate cut, what’s next for Netflix amid acquisition drama, and the significance of Nvidia’s partial return to China’s market. Expertise is provided by economists, strategists, and sector insiders, giving listeners a panoramic view of key business stories shaping the day.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Fed’s Impending Rate Cut – Debate Over Justification

Timestamps: 01:22–10:23

- Fed Survey and Market Expectations

• Steve Liesman (CNBC) summarizes:
  • 87% of respondents expect a Fed rate cut, but only 45% believe the Fed should actually cut.
  • Expectations are for a “hawkish cut,” meaning a cut now, but a pause to follow.
  • Inflation worries (especially an AI bubble) and division inside the Fed are top risks.
• Quote:
  • “A cut followed by a pause… but only 45% think the Fed should cut. That’s a pretty big split.”
    — Steve Liesman (02:15)

- Neutral vs. Restrictive: Where Does Fed Policy Stand?

• Paul McCully (Adjunct Prof., Georgetown; ex-PIMCO Chief Economist):

  • The Fed is “completing the normalization process,” moving from restrictive policy to “the outer suburbs of the neutral neighborhood.”
  • Real-world effects depend on which part of the economy you consider—Wall Street may be at “neutral,” but Main Street and the bottom half are still feeling restrictiveness.

• Quote:

  • “There’s not one natural neutral rate for the economy.”
    — Paul McCully (06:12)

• Kelly Evans and Steve Liesman discuss the divergence between strong asset markets (e.g., silver, crypto, stocks up) and still-restrictive conditions for small businesses.

- Data Gaps and Forecast Risks

• Steve Liesman expresses discomfort with decision-making “without two months of data,” and warns against forecasting in such uncertainty (08:00).
• McCully emphasizes the Fed “needs to normalize the yield curve,” essentially following the bond market’s lead (09:34).

2. Market Movers and the Bond Auction

Timestamps: 10:23–13:08

- Bond Auction Results and Inflation Jitters

• Rick Santelli (CNBC):
  • The 10-year Treasury auction was “solid,” not a disaster.
  • Investors growing nervous in front of the cut; inflation still running above the Fed’s 2% goal, and “doesn’t look as weak for the labor market.”
  • The bond market isn’t “revolting against a cut,” but is wary.

3. Tech, AI, and Rate Cut Plays

Timestamps: 13:08–18:18

- Productivity vs. Labor Market Weakness

• Discussion about AI’s impact on productivity and whether it justifies additional rate cuts.

• Steve Whiting (CIO, Group):

  • Sees productivity from AI as a potential tailwind for the economy, but warns that aggressive easing could foment bubbles.
  • Doesn’t think labor market is so weak as to demand “emergency” cuts.

• Quote:

  • “Can you imagine runaway bubbles in the economy with easier monetary policy…? This makes it even more difficult for the Fed.”
    — Steve Whiting (15:41)

• Whiting remains optimistic on tech stocks, predicting a strong 2026 but recommends diversification to sectors like health care for balance.

4. Netflix and Streaming M&A Drama – Opportunity or Risk?

Timestamps: 20:54–25:51

- Netflix’s Acquisition Choices

• Mark Douglas (CEO, MNTN):

  • Netflix’s failed bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) may be a net positive:
    • Being more nimble, tech-centric, and global is preferable for Netflix.
    • Skydance's competing bid for WBD is “must-have” for them, but “nice-to-have” for Netflix.

• On AI and Content:

  • Sees AI as lowering the cost of content creation, an opportunity not a threat, contrary to some analysts’ warnings that AI could “disrupt” streaming incumbents.

• Quote:

  • “I view [AI] very much as an opportunity… People are not ready to talk about the short-form film they watched for five minutes.”
    — Mark Douglas (24:54)

• Ad market described as “healthy,” with AI accelerating, not undermining, content creation and competitiveness.

5. Nvidia, China, and U.S. Tech Policy

Timestamps: 31:34–43:55

- Sudden Policy Reversal: Chips for China

• Eamon Javers (CNBC):

  • Despite an ongoing DOJ anti-smuggling operation (Gatekeeper), the Trump administration now permits Nvidia to sell H200 chips to vetted Chinese customers.
  • U.S. will impose a 25% tariff, chips moving via Taiwan–U.S.–China.

• Beijing Response (Eunice Yoon, CNBC):

  • China’s government is playing it cool, continuing to push domestic chips and “self-reliance,” possibly restricting Nvidia imports.
  • Chinese firms prefer Nvidia but increasingly diversify to domestic sources.

• Risks and Uncertainties (Christina Partsinevelos, CNBC):

  • Congressionally proposed bills may still block exports.
  • Margins hurt by surcharges.
  • Limited supply, possible Chinese block, and U.S. memory chip restrictions make revenue uncertain.

• Quote:

  • “Washington has said yes for now, but China could really just say no.”
    — Christina Partsinevelos (36:55)

- Policy Consistency and AI Regulation

• Bradley Tusk (Tusk Ventures):
  • Questions why U.S. chips are prioritized for China over allies (UAE, Japan, South Korea).
  • Sees policy incoherence: White House claims “AI is national security,” seeks to block state-level regulation, yet at the same time opens high-end chip exports to China.
• Quote:
  • “If it’s that critical of a national security issue, why are we sending the chips to China?”
    — Bradley Tusk (40:03)
  • Also critiques lack of fiscal coherence with tariffs and spending/tax cuts.

6. “Rate Cut Winners”: Top Stocks to Play the Move

Timestamps: 45:56–49:28

• Victoria Greene (CIO, G Squared Private Wealth): gives picks expected to benefit if the Fed cuts rates:
  • Delta Air Lines: Asset-heavy, benefits from lower debt and fuel costs, still strong demand for premium/experience travel.
  • Viking Cruises: High-net-worth clients, asset-heavy, solid bookings into 2026.
  • Lowe’s: Could benefit from thawing housing market and home remodeling demand.
  • Prologis: A beneficiary from lower rates; up 21% year-to-date.

7. Notable Market Movers & Headlines

Timestamps: 44:24–45:35

• CVS Health up 2% after strong guidance.
• AutoZone down 6–7% on weak profits, hurt by tariffs.
• 21 Capital crypto treasury firm, debuts down 25% post-SPAC merger.
• Walmart near record highs, shifting to Nasdaq, CEO sees strength from higher-income shoppers but pressure at the low end (29:17).

Memorable Quotes

• Steve Liesman: “A cut followed by a pause… but only 45% think the Fed should cut. That’s a pretty big split.” (02:15)
• Paul McCully: “There’s not one natural neutral rate for the economy.” (06:12)
• Steve Whiting: “Can you imagine runaway bubbles in the economy with easier monetary policy…? This makes it even more difficult for the Fed.” (15:41)
• Mark Douglas: “I view [AI] very much as an opportunity… People are not ready to talk about the short-form film they watched for five minutes.” (24:54)
• Eamon Javers: “The country that controls these chips will control AI technology. The country that controls AI technology will control the future.” (32:19)
• Christina Partsinevelos: “Washington has said yes for now, but China could really just say no.” (36:55)
• Bradley Tusk: “If it’s that critical of a national security issue, why are we sending the chips to China?” (40:03)

Important Segment Timestamps

• 01:22–10:23: Fed rate cut debate, economic normalization, data gaps
• 10:23–13:08: Bond auction and market signals
• 13:08–18:18: Tech leadership, AI productivity vs. bubbles, sector outlooks
• 20:54–25:51: Netflix streaming M&A, ad market health, AI in content
• 31:34–43:55: Nvidia’s China policy reversal, chip export details, tech policy debate
• 45:56–49:28: Rate cut stock picks: Delta, Viking, Lowe’s, Prologis

Tone & Language

The episode features a newsroom-driven, fact-heavy style with a balance of analytical skepticism (about Fed moves and policy contradictions) and lively, practical market advice. Exchanges are candid, occasionally witty, and offer both technical and strategic business perspectives.

This summary encapsulates the major topics, expert views, and actionable insights from "The Exchange" episode, offering listeners a comprehensive reference for both the economic debate and market-moving stories of the day.