← The Exchange
The Exchange
Energy Ripples, Databricks Moves into Cybersecurity, and Anthropic vs. the Pentagon 3/24/26
00:43:21
Carlyle's Jeff Currie says even if the Iran war stops now, surging oil prices will impact the economy for months. Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi on his new cybersecurity product and AI disruption within the space. Plus, Anthropic and the Department of Defense head to court.
Loading summary
Transcript97 lines
- [00:00]
Schwab Trading Representative
Trading at Schwab is powered by Ameritrade, giving you even more specialized support than ever before, like access to the trade desk. Our team of passionate traders ready to tackle anything from the most complex trading questions to a simple strategy. Gut check. Need assistance? No problem. Get 24. 7 professional answers and live help and access support by phone, email and in platform chat. That's how Schwab is here for you to help you trade brilliantly. Learn more@schwab.com trading men are struggling with
- [00:29]
Dr. Guy Winch
their mental health at some of the highest rates we've ever seen. But most aren't getting the support they need and that needs to change. I'm Dr. Guy Winch, your host for season three of the Visibility Gap, presented by Cigna Healthcare. This season we're focusing on men's mental health, bringing together real stories and expert insight to explore the pressures men face every day and why opening up can feel so difficult. Join us for the new season wherever you stream your podcasts.
- [01:02]
Kelly Evans
Scott, thank you very much. And stocks are in a holding pattern, but yields are on the rise today. Welcome to the Exchange. I'm Kelly Evans. The major averages are little changed, although the NASDAQ down half a percent is more considerable as strikes between Iran and Israel have resumed and investors are trying to figure out how real the President's Iran talks are. That said, the S and P, with its two point drop today, is still tracking for its worst month in a year. And a rebound in energy prices has brent back above 100 a barrel today and WTI back above 90. You just heard we're near session highs at 92 now, a 5% pop. The national average for gasoline has hit 398 a gallon per triple A. You can see yields as well. We're seeing some upward pressures here for 38 on the 10 year, 3.91 on the twos. We'll have a two year auction. Just a minute. And concerns about private credit are bubbling up as well, with Ares and Apollo seeing a spike in redemption requests. The stocks are paring their earlier losses, though Ares is almost green and our analysts will explain why he's staying bullish ahead. But let's begin with the very latest on Iran. We turn to Eamon Jabbers, Washington, and we may hear from the president in a little while.
- [02:04]
Jeff Curry
Eamon Kelly, that's right.
- [02:05]
Eamon Javers
We're going to hear from the president in about a half an hour. We're going to be watching carefully to see what he says about the prospect of any US Troops going to Iran. And that's Because Fox News Channel is adding to New York Times reporting from yesterday on the Army's 82nd Airborne Division. Fox's Jennifer Griffin reporting this morning that the division's commander and his command element have been ordered to deploy to the Middle East. Now that follows that reporting from the Times yesterday that said the Pentagon was considering deploying combat troops from the the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle east to augment the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, which is already on its way to the region. The Times reporting that combat forces would come from the 82nd Airborne's immediate response force, which is designed to deploy very quickly around the world. Now the White House not responding to a request for comment on that. Meanwhile, we see this Iranian official, he's taken to social media to mock what he sees as an effort to prop up the oil futures markets. The speaker of the Iranian Parliament this morning writing, we are aware of what is happening in the paper oil market, including the firms hired to influence oil futures. We also see the broader jawboning campaign, but let's see if they can turn that into actual fuel at the pump or maybe even print gas molecules. Now all of this as multiple reports suggest. Several countries are working now to mediate talks between the United States and Iran, although there's no evidence yet of breakthroughs or scheduled in person meetings. So all of that in the air as we see the president come up at about 1:30 Eastern Time here. He's going to do the swearing in for Mark Wayne Mullen, who's going to be the new head of dhs. But we'll also watch for comments on Iran, which you know, the president likes to go off script. So we could get those coming up in about a half an hour.
- [03:51]
Kelly Evans
Absolutely. For now. Amen. Thanks very much. Eamon Javers, our next guest, says even if the war stops right now, the damage is done. Disruption to oil in the Strait of Hormuz, he says will impact the economy for months. Still joining us from the Syra Week conference in Houston is Jeff Curry. He's partner and chief strategy officer of Energy Pathways at Carlisle. Jeff, it's great, great to see you. In those two items that Eamon just mentioned, the Iranian official who says basically the US Is just manipulating or jawboning futures and reports they're considering ground troops. All of which leaves you where on the oil price and on the energy complex from here?
- [04:23]
Jeff Curry
Well, I think with the first point, one thing it's important to remember about oil, it is not a financial instrument. It does not price expectations. It is a spot instrument that has to clear today's supply and demand. So you really can't manipulate a commodity market. Yeah, you can push it down a little bit here and there, but the physical realities will be what dominates this market and they're in front of us.
- [04:46]
Kelly Evans
I like that point that you're making. You've talked about that a lot. And so the price today, which is on the rise, you know, 92 for WTI, 100 for Brent. I don't know if we have a concrete sense of why that is or if it's simply just gaming out, you know, probabilities of whether additional strikes could happen on energy infrastructure.
- [05:04]
Jeff Curry
Well, I think when we look at WTI and Brent, they're in the WTI is the Western Hemisphere. I'm here in Texas and it's up there in Oklahoma. This part of the world will be the last part to feel these disruptions. The way you like to think about it is there's a finite buffer between when a disruption occurred and when you get physical disruptions. In places like Asia, that time period is like two to three days. So they're going to be hitting this within the week. In places like Philippines, it's already there. New Zealand, Australia, they're already feeling it. You know, jet fuel in some parts of the world is over $300 a barrel. So there's other parts of the world that are feeling it. In places like Europe, it's going to be within the next week or two. So I think the point here is the physical realities drive the physical price in oil like Oman and stuff that's traded in Asia is already trading 150, $160 a barrel. That's what's likely is in store for places like Europe in the coming weeks. Now, wti, that's here in Oklahoma or up in Oklahoma, it's going to be the last one to feel it. And that's going to be way off in the future.
- [06:09]
Kelly Evans
Do you. Well, still you're talking about a much higher oil price where I think a lot of folks have settled on this idea that we've put in the highs and are probably heading back down towards, I don't know, the number 90, 80, 70 a barrel. Do you think that's realistic?
- [06:22]
Jeff Curry
No, absolutely not. And why? These are physical markets. They've priced the physical reality of supply and demand that we have not seen peak physical weak strength in these markets or the shortages yet. So like a financial market, prices, the future, the expectations, why we call financial markets anticipatory assets. Commodities are what we call spot assets. They have to clear the supply and demand of today. There are no expectations. And so when that shortage hits, that's when you're going to see peak prices.
- [06:52]
Kelly Evans
When you talk about shortages, I've heard this kind of going around that, you know, watch out, come April 1st, we're going to start to see actual shortages in the market. Can you explain what you and others mean by that? Are we talking about in certain parts of the crude oil market globally or are we talking about things that could affect availability at the gasoline pump here in the U.S. well, the way I
- [07:13]
Jeff Curry
like to think about it is there's an air pocket going through global supply chains is indeterminate link that's getting bigger and bigger because we don't have new refueling supply coming out of the Gulf. So the air pocket gets bigger and bigger. And think about this. It takes somewhere around three to four weeks to sail a ship from the Gulf into Europe or the US Like Rotterdam or into, let's say the East Coast. So when you think about how long it takes from the time when the disruption started, take four weeks from when, let's go somewhere early March, you're talking early April, when you're going to feel it in places like Rotterdam and in the US East Coast. Now, in terms of thinking about the US because it is more insulated, meaning it produces what it consumes, it'll be the last to feel it, but it'll start when Europe starts to feel it. That's when the US Is going to start to feel it in the price level.
- [08:00]
Kelly Evans
That said, we go back to the Russia war on Ukraine. When that broke out, it was 12 days after the start that the oil price peaked. So it's not as if that was four to six months later. It seems to be that the markets, even though they're spot markets, like you're saying, I think financial market participants are thinking the worst of the the pricing is over because of, you know, the quick nature of that response and that reality.
- [08:26]
Jeff Curry
I think it's an important distinction between that event in Russia, Ukraine and today that did not lead to real physical disruptions because we saw the system adjust. The Russian exports didn't fall off a cliff and stay that way like people anticipated. And where there is one of those things, buy the rumor, sell the fact. And that's what happened. So people are looking at go, ha ha, you aren't going to trick me this time. They're not. They're buying the rumor and trying to sell the fact. But here it's going to be one of these, you better start buy the fact. Because when that fact hits, it's going to be real shortage again. We're talking the biggest supply disruption the world's ever seen. I'm going to even quote fatigue Barol, who said, he's the head of the IEA, who said this is the biggest disruption of both 73 and 79 combined. So he himself says this thing's really big. You can't expect that this is not going to have a physical impact.
- [09:17]
Kelly Evans
I was struck by that as well, because usually people like that are in the business of calming everyone down and saying there's not a crisis. And he was kind of playing it up the other way. And I don't know if there's an element of politics and that. I have no idea what then, Jeff, can be done. Right now, if we're sitting on kind of this, you know, this tidal wave, it's like the water's gone out and we're about to see what's coming back onshore. What can be done in the interim?
- [09:39]
Jeff Curry
Well, I think what they've done and the policy response is release the spider. The problem is the flow rate is not matter. So you got that headline, 400 million barrels, but you can only get out like a million to 1.3 million barrels per day against a. Call it a 15 to 20 million barrel per day shock in the US the US is about 1.3, Europe is about another. Bring it up to 2. So it's not going to do anything. There's no policy response that can really tame prices once the shortages get here. So, yeah, you know, we could be out selling the futures and trying to keep it down that way. But the physical market is what matters and that's not going to have an impact on it. An important difference between futures markets in commodities markets versus financial markets markets, stocks and bonds are long only instruments. These markets are long short. For every long there has to be a short. And as a result, you cannot influence them by buying or selling like you can financial markets. And the reality is the physical market is really going to bite sometime in the next couple of weeks.
- [10:39]
Kelly Evans
Do you think that if people will leave it here, but do you think people who listen to this are going to panic and actually start stockpiling, even consumers perhaps, and worsen a problem that doesn't exist yet, or do you think that that would actually be prudent irrational behavior on the part of businesses or. Or other users of the products?
- [10:57]
Jeff Curry
100%, you're right. That is going to be the reaction. Hoarding, precautionary inventory building, Whatever you want to call it, I mean the reason why China is protected right now, they've been hoarding for years, built up a huge stockpile anticipation for an event like this. And that's what the SPR was created for. But we drew it down in 2022. And so when we look at consumers, I mean you go back to the 70s, people were building fuel tanks in their backyards to be able to supply their automobiles. So this hoarding dynamic, it's underway. We estimate the impact on global demand is somewhere between 2 and 3 million barrels per day already in the current environment that's almost entirely focused on hoarding. So yes, in fact, I would argue when we talk about a security premium embedded in commodity prices, it's that hoarding dynamic that defines that security premium.
- [11:48]
Kelly Evans
I see. Understood. Jeff, really important time to have you on. Thanks so much for making the time. We really appreciate it.
- [11:54]
Jeff Curry
Jeff Curry, thanks for having me.
- [11:55]
Kelly Evans
From Carlyle joining us there from Sierra Week. You might have seen the market taking a turn lower. We do have reports from the Wall street journal that the US is sending 3,000 additional troops to the Gulf. No comment on putting boots on the ground. But Rick Santelli, that's it's not just your two year auction that that is moving us around at this hour. And how did it go?
- [12:15]
Rick Santelli
No, but it is partially the two year auction because it went terribly weak. Let's start at the beginning. 69 billion two year notes, the first of the three part offering from the treasury totaling 183 billion. This 69 billion moved out the door at a yield of 3.936. Those are two year notes. The problem was it tailed by about two basis points because the when issued market was at 3.918 and tailing is never good. D as in dog is the grade I gave it. And I might even be generous. If you look at the metrics, they're all quite weak. The bid to cover, meaning how many dollars of investment are chasing every dollar of securities available was $2.442.44 for every dollar's worth of securities the treasury is selling that is the smallest, the weakest bid to cover since May of 24. And if you look at the direct bidders, they're about half of the 10 auction average weakest since March of 25. But maybe the biggest thing that really is quite telling is that dealers on a 10 auction average usually take 11% of the auction. This time they took over 24%. That's the biggest primary dealer take part since October of 22, which means that the buffet table was so full of leftovers that the dealers had to scoop up twice the amount they normally do. Never a good sign. So usually two year, usually this series of twos, fives, sevens, Kelly goes really well. The shorter maturities are a little easier. But what's hanging on this one is the fact that the Fed and the timeline for easing has shrunk, almost moving into a potential for tightening. And that really makes it difficult to be owning two year notes back to you.
- [14:01]
Kelly Evans
And we are up 13 basis points on the session, which is not the kind of action you want to see. No wonder the market taking it with a bit of trouble. Rick, thanks. Appreciate it. Rick Santelli, thank you. All told, the S and P is now on track for its worst month in a year. But my next guest says the real story is that the indices are still only down 5% or less since January 1st. Let's bring in Steve Sosnik. He's the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers here on set with me. I mean, maybe, maybe forget it now that we've seen the two year and everything go. But what did the market internals tell you?
- [14:31]
Steve Sosnik
The market internals tell me that we still have this underlying bid. There's still this undercurrent of fomo. There's still nobody who wants to miss a rally. And as a result, partially because as Jeff Curry said earlier, that oil is not as bad as could be. We're not in that. We're not at the depths that we thought we might be. This has been the Persian Gulf situation is something that we've been modeling out risk managers and I was one for a long time. We're always gaming out what we're would happen if there was a closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the, the gaming was 150 to $200 barrel oil and a minimum 10% correction in the S&P 500. Well, we haven't gotten those and to that extent maybe because oil is not as bad as it could be, at least not yet according to him. Or maybe it's just because we've gotten so convinced that, you know, every dip is a buying opportunity and every, every presidential move can be undone, shall we say that, that nobody wants to be the one who wants, you know, who's selling it out. And that's what, that's the dynamic.
- [15:38]
Kelly Evans
Where do you see people kind of most excited to jump in and across kind of the markets broadly? Is it the favorite names we've talked about over the years Is it sectors like soft? I mean, where do you see activity? I hear more than ever about some of the new drone, AI defense companies and things like that.
- [15:54]
Steve Sosnik
There's always going to be a group of people looking for, you know, sort of the sexy new company. And yeah, there was the drone. The drone company that went up, you know, 11 fold in two days. You know, that's a cool story. Well, we see most of the activity. We still see people aggressively dip buying. Micron was the most active stock on our platform.
- [16:11]
Tim Seymour
Wow.
- [16:12]
Eamon Javers
Overlap.
- [16:12]
Steve Sosnik
Because why? Because Micron got such a great performer.
- [16:15]
Rick Santelli
But it got that pullback.
- [16:16]
Steve Sosnik
But exactly. It got, it got the, you know, the crap kicked out of it after earnings. And so people rushed in. One name that we do see a lot of people buying is vo, which, which tells me that investors are active, that people are seeing this as a longer term possibility.
- [16:29]
Kelly Evans
And VO is just the broad market. It's Vanguard S&P 500.
- [16:33]
Steve Sosnik
It is. But what happens when SPY is active? Those that tells me traders are trading it because SPY is more of a trading name. VO is not as liquid. It doesn't have liquid options at all, but it's cheaper. So investors like vo, traders like spy.
- [16:47]
Kelly Evans
And so you think this is a moment. And again, we're saying the worst month in about a year. Well, what happened a year ago, look at the panic after the tariffs that the President put on. And again, look at what happened if you weren't coming in to buy at that moment. And I guess that's what people are conditioned to do here.
- [17:02]
Steve Sosnik
That's exactly it. People are conditioned to see every dip as a buying opportunity. What's the proverb? If you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail. And you know, to some extent that was the case. And you know, I wrote, I wrote earlier this week about the Trump put, and on Friday I wrote, what's the strike price on the Trump put? Yesterday we learned that the strike price was either 6500 on the S&P 500 or 445 on the, on the 10 year. I actually think it was more of a bond, it was almost more of a bond reaction because as a real estate guy who hangs around with other real estate guys, you're very, you're very tied into the borrowing costs. But as a result, I think that's why you saw the President say what he said both Friday afternoon and again yesterday morning, sort of to, to put in that, that level. But what happens here is this is a lot harder to undo than the tariffs. The tariffs were the stroke of a pen and, and you could change them. In this case, you know, you're dealing with global supplies of a commodity that, that take a long time to, to ship around the world and to get those price pressures through. And it's not just crude oil, it's, it's, it's liquefied natural gas, it's, it's fertilizer, it's helium which did you know? I didn't know until this goals I had no idea that helium was so critical to semiconductor production. So there' factors of the supply chain that need to be worked through. So even if this thing resolves tonight, there's still going to be supply effects, supply shock effects. Question is, if it ends quickly, you can call it transitory and I know that's a dirty word when it comes to inflation, but you could think of it as transitory. The longer it lasts, the worse this becomes because they get more embedded in the system.
- [18:41]
Kelly Evans
Quick last question then for the retail buyers. Are they going to be caught off sides if there is a longer lasting impact to energy and more of a problem for the market in some, some
- [18:50]
Steve Sosnik
fashion, there is a real risk to it. And one of the basic things that I ask people is if you can't price safe assets like to your notes, as Rick Santelli just said, how are you expected to price riskier assets like stocks that base their prices on those shorter term assets?
- [19:05]
Kelly Evans
It's an excellent place to leave it. Steve, thank you, appreciate it. Steve Sosnik with Interactive Brokers. We've got a news alert on aam ARM Holdings, Christina Parts and Evolis here with those details. Christina.
- [19:15]
Christina Parts
Well Kelly, AR is no longer just the blueprint company for making chips. After 35 years of licensing chip designs to everyone from Apple to Amazon, ARM is now making its own silicon for the first time. The company actually just unveiled its first in house processor called the AGI chip. With Meta as the lead customer, ARM says it delivers twice the performance of traditional server chips, which is really a direct hit at intel and AMD while using the same amount of power. And this really comes as AI agents take on more complex tasks like reasoning and decision, driving really a surge in demand for general purpose processors. CPUs. ARM says data centers could need more than four times the current capacity. Beyond Meta, ARM has signed other customers like OpenAI, Cerebras, Cloudflare, SAP among others with about 50 partners backing the launch. But it is a bold although expected move that puts ARM direct indirect competition with the very customers it still licenses to include. Intel, AMD and Amazon, so it's entering the CPU race, which is growing. Alibaba just announced the CPU chip today too.
- [20:22]
Kelly Evans
Amazing to watch how AI is really causing everyone to throw off the previous playbooks and just say we're all going at it, whether against each other or with each other or some combination thereof. Christina, thanks for now. Appreciate it. Christina Parts in Evil S Coming up, Private credit concerns are back in the spotlight after Moody slashed its rating on a KKR fund run by KKR and Futures Standard, I should say. At the same time, Apollo is giving investors less than half of their requested withdrawals. What does it all mean for the health of the space? Plus Databricks making its big debut not in the public market yet, but in the cybersecurity space. And that's putting some pressure on shares of Palo Alto CrowdStrike and others. We'll talk to the CEO about that and always going to keep asking him about that path toward an ipo. It's coming up on the Exchange. This is the Exchange on cnbc.
- [21:14]
Schwab Trading Representative
Trading at Schwab is powered by Ameritrade, giving you even more specialized support than ever before, like access to the trade desk. Our team of passionate traders ready to tackle anything from the most complex trading questions to a simple strategy gut check. Need assistance? No problem. Get 24. 7 professional answers and live help and access support by phone, email and in platform chat. That's how Schwab is here for you to help you trade brilliantly. Learn more@schwab.com trading men are struggling with
- [21:43]
Dr. Guy Winch
their mental health at some of the highest rates we've ever seen, but most aren't getting the support they need. And that needs to change. I'm Dr. Guy Winch, your host for season three of the Visibility Gap presented by Cigna Healthcare. This season we're focusing on men's mental health, bringing together real stories and expert insight to explore the pressures men face every day and why opening up can feel so difficult. Join us for the new season Wherever you stream your podcasts, this segment is
- [22:13]
Kelly Evans
brought to you by Gelt. If you're a business owner wondering whether your CPA is just filing forms instead of helping you use taxes strategically, GHELT was built for you. Their expert CPAs and innovative AI tools help optimize entity structure, deductions and retirement contributions with proactive year round tax planning. Sirius XM listeners receive 10% off their first year of service when they sign up. Visit joingelt.com to schedule a discovery call. That's joing.
- [22:40]
Tim Seymour
Joingelt.com the private credit market remains very murky.
- [22:47]
Crispin Love
We've got all these investors that want
- [22:49]
Kelly Evans
to get out and they can't get out. That was Double Line's Jeffrey Gundlach warning of private credit strains here on CNBC yesterday afternoon. Not long after those comments, Apollo made news in its flagship $15 billion private credit fund by meeting just under half of the redemption requests from investors today. Ares also reporting about 11% of investors wanting their money back. Shares of both firms under pressure on the news but off the lows. Moody's meanwhile cutting the rating on a private credit fund run by KKR and Standard Future to junk as bad loans grow. But my next guest is staying bullish. Let's bring in Crispin Love, senior research analyst at Piper Sandler. Crispin, welcome. And you think you know, but again, as we understand it, these 5% kind of gates exist for most of these funds as a feature, not as something that happens in times of stress. And you think in a way they should just leave the gates up and maybe that will help quell the panic. We saw a little bit of this with the real estate piece a couple of years ago. Different ways firms tried to deal with the spike in redemption requests. So I'd love to hear what you think would be the best move by most of these firms now.
- [23:54]
Crispin Love
Absolutely. And thank you for having me, Kelly. We view the 5% cap on redemptions as balancing the interests of new existing and investors looking to redeem capital. We do understand that it can be a short term hit for stocks, but it does help alternatives balance liquidity and put capital work during times like these when it is a period where there could it could lead to some very attractive investments.
- [24:23]
Kelly Evans
You are bullish. Tell me. You know, of all the companies we've seen sell offs between 40, 60%. I think in the case of Blue Owl in terms of the equity, the owners of some of these funds. Are you bullish across the board. Do you think the sell off has created opportunity? Just talk through the investment case.
- [24:38]
Crispin Love
Absolutely. So we're somewhat balanced. I'd say our favorite name in the old space right now is Apollo. Their focus is on credit, but 60% of that of their portfolio is investment grade. Software exposure is limited on the credit side. They have effectively zero software exposure in the private equity. And they also have their insurance business which I think could be a stabilizer in this current environment because I think, well, flows over the near term are going to be challenging and it's not something that's going to improve tomorrow or even over kind of the next couple of months. Or perhaps even quarters. And then we also remain overweight. On Blue Al and kkr, we, we think just that the stock moves have given investors and an attractive entry point, but it's not going to be a straight line. And then we have neutrals on, on Blackstone and Field Asset Management.
- [25:32]
Kelly Evans
I was thinking about Blue Owl today because when going through some of their filings as this broke out, you know, I believe I could be wrong that one of their big exposures was to revolut the UK fintech firm which actually had some good news this morning. And so I'm wondering if your kind of case for owning exposure to these companies is predicated on the underlying assets performing well or if they've fallen enough in value that even if the underlying defaults and you tell me whatever rate you have penciled in here that you, that there's maybe still, you know, an investment case to be made, right?
- [26:04]
Crispin Love
Absolutely. I think it's, it's on both ends, it's on value and then it's on the fundamentals of the company. On credit quality right now, our view is that credit quality is not, not going to get better from where we are right now. Defaults are very low, kind of below 1% and I think you're going to have one off issues within the private credit space. But we don't view that as being systemic across the whole portfolio. When you're thinking about these types of companies, they're investing with kind of large cap companies which have kind of plenty of EBITDA and loan to values are typically in the 30 to 40%. So you have to look at. Okay. In order for the private credit firms to take losses, private equity needs to get completely wiped out.
- [26:50]
Kelly Evans
Right.
- [26:50]
Crispin Love
And then to your point on Revolut and just other areas that can help, I think digital infrastructure and data centers are a big part of these stories where it's not just private credit to middle market firms firms, but you do have digital infrastructure which is going to be a, be a tailwind for, for years to come.
- [27:07]
Kelly Evans
Yeah. So do you think it's to some extent an open story and the Wells Fargo guest we had on, I'm sorry, Morgan Stanley Investment Management yesterday on Power Lunch, he said they've had institutional clients who are buying into some of these firms even as retail is panicking and leaving. So not to call it smart money or anything like that, but do you see similar inflows to some of these areas?
- [27:28]
Crispin Love
Yes. And it's interesting when you look at 2025 results, fundraising was extremely strong across institutional and also in the wealth channel. And yes, of course, right now you're seeing wealth step back a bit. But even with Apollo's news last night where they had effectively 725 million of gross inflows into the product, they had requested redemptions of 1.6 billion of which they will redeem right around 730 million or so. So net flows in the wealth products right now are relatively stable. It's not, it's not just capital going out the door. And then on the institutional side, I think you're going to continue to see fundraising in those types of areas.
- [28:10]
Kelly Evans
It's fascinating. Crispin, we think you have a great name. I mean, this is, you know, if they ever hear the Bachelor. No, anyway, a pledge. Not only that, but you can break this down in an understandable way. So I really appreciate the time this afternoon. You. Thank, thanks.
- [28:23]
Tim Seymour
Great.
- [28:24]
Crispin Love
Thank you for having me.
- [28:25]
Kelly Evans
Of Piper Sandler. Coming up. We're about three hours away from the start of a high stakes hearing between Anthropic and the Pentagon. We'll get a live report outside the courthouse ahead. Stay with us on the exchange.
- [28:37]
Schwab Trading Representative
Trading at Schwab is powered by Ameritrade, giving you even more specialized support than ever before, like access to the trade desk. Our team of passionate traders ready to tackle anything from the most complex trading questions to a simple strategy gut check. Need assistance? No problem. Get 24. 7 professional answers and live help. And access support by phone, email and in platform chat. That's how Schwab is here for you to help you trade brilliantly. Learn more@schwab.com trading men are struggling with
- [29:06]
Dr. Guy Winch
their mental health at some of the highest rates we've ever seen. But most aren't getting the support they need and that needs to change. I'm Dr. Guy Winch, your host for season three of the Visibility Gap presented by Cigna Healthcare. This season we're focusing on men's mental health, bringing together real stories and expert insight to explore the pressures men face every day and why opening up can feel so difficult. Join us for the new season wherever you stream your podcasts.
- [29:35]
Eamon Javers
Before we had AT&T business wireless coverage, our delivery GPS wasn't the most reliable. Once our driver had to do a 14 point turn to get back on route.
- [29:44]
Kelly Evans
A 14 point turn.
- [29:46]
Eamon Javers
An influencer even livestream the whole thing. Not good for business. Now with AT&T business wireless, routes are updating on the fly and deliveries are on time. And the influencer did get us 53
- [29:59]
Kelly Evans
new followers though at&t business wireless connecting changes everything. Look at the markets where we're seeing a move again, a little bit of weakening after the past few items of news flow. You could say it's the two year auction that Rick gave a D. These headlines from the Wall Street Journal that the US still considering putting deploying troops I should say to the Middle East. The Dow is about unchanged. The S and P is down a quarter percent right now. The NASDAQ's down 8, 10. The small caps for what it's worth are fractionally higher. And take a look at some of the stablecoin names where Circle and Coinbase are seeing big drops, with circle down 22% its worst day since going public last June. It comes after industry insiders apparently saw a draft of the US Clarity Act. The legislation essentially would bar rewards on passive stablecoin balances and ban structures economically equivalent to interest. Mizuho analyst Dan Dahl of saying that could reduce the use case for Circle in the near term and make holding stablecoins on Coinbase's platform less attractive in the long run, which explains why these names are under such pressure. And we'll wait to see any more clarity on that front run. Let's get to Leslie Picker in the meantime for this CNBC news update. Hi Leslie.
- [31:07]
Leslie Picker
Hi Kelly. Afghanistan's Taliban today released American academic Dennis Coyle, who's been held since January 2025. The Foreign Ministry saying Coyle was released after a letter of appeal from his family and that he would be pardoned for eid, the holiday marking the end of Ramadan. Coyle was detained on allegations of violating laws, but Afghan authorities never publicly stated what those laws were. Delta Air Lines is suspending its standalone service for members of Congress until the TSA is fully funded. In a statement to the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Delta says taking care of its people and customers is becoming increasingly difficult. During the shutdown last week, Delta CEO told CNBC that TSA working without pay is inexcusable. An Epic Games says it will cut more than a thousand jobs after a drop in usage for its flagship game Fortnight. CEO Tim Sweeney told employees that the cuts in savings from lower contracting and marketing spending will put the company in a more stable place. Sweeney says the layoffs are not related
- [32:11]
Kelly Evans
to a I Interesting. All right, Leslie, thank you. Coming up, the cybersecurity names are under pressure today after databricks announced it's entering the market. We're going to ask CEO Ali Goatsie about that move right after this. One of the most valuable private companies in the world making a big move today Entering the cybersecurity market and making its first move into first party apps. Deirdre Bosses at the RSA conference in San Francisco with Databricks CEO Ali Gozi.
- [32:41]
Deirdre Bosa
Deirdre Kelly, thank you very much.
- [32:44]
Kelly Evans
And Ali, thank you so much for
- [32:45]
Deirdre Bosa
being here with us. Right off your keynote, you know, I look around, we've got Splunk crowdstrike Palo Alto on the floor of rsa. See, this year you are now entering the cybersecurity market. They have decades of expertise, thousands of people who specialize in cybersecurity. Why do you think the databricks can take them on?
- [33:03]
Ali Gozi
Yeah, I think there's a big secular shift happening now. And I really think AI is going to kill the SIM this year. I think this is the year it kills the sim. You know, the security, what's the same assembly is a security information event management system that does all of your detections in your organization. It detects if something is wrong, if something is suspicious, and all of that. This is the year where it's going to be disrupted. You know, these old legacy systems are very expensive. Getting data into them is super hard. People are not even looking at all the data. And then on top of lots of manual labor, you know, security teams are waking up every day and they're having thousands of alerts and just can't go through them. And then on the other side, the attackers are to going getting more and more sophisticated. And let's just using agents to attack these systems no longer even humans. So two, three years ago, it would take something like, you know, three, four months from the time a vulnerability was found until someone exploited it. That is now down to one day. So it's not even humans anymore attacking these systems. So we need a new approach. And the new approach is open. So all your data in an open lakehouse and then unleash all the agents. Agents. Open agents that you compose on top of that so that we're fighting agents with agents instead of fighting agents with humans.
- [34:14]
Deirdre Bosa
And critically, something you have that they don't necessarily have is the data. Already you have the data lakes, which is why I believe you're able to make this more cheaper. Right, Lower cost. You say you're going to cut it by some 80%. What happens to these legacy players who you're also partnering with?
- [34:29]
Ali Gozi
Yeah, well, I think that, you know, they will adapt. You know, everyone will adapt to the new model. I think the SIM goes away. I think the security lakehouse, this open security lakehouse becomes the next way in which you actually defend we also launched an ecosystem for that reason. We call it the Open Security Lakehouse ecosystem and we have many partners as part of that. But I think this is going to be the way of the future. If we don't do it this way, I think many organizations will actually crumble because there's so much attacks coming.
- [34:55]
Deirdre Bosa
So it feels like cybersecurity is just the beginning, considering how much data you're sitting on. And you said yourself that you are going to be part of the software disruption. What does that mean? What's next?
- [35:06]
Ali Gozi
Well, what do you need for this new era, this agentic era? Well, you need a platform where you can build agents. Databricks has that. You still need the database for system of record. We have that as well. That's lake based that we launched. That's our transactional database that we launched last year. And then you need a data platform where you can have all of your data. So we have the three ingredients that you need essentially for any SaaS application. So you know, for us, those SaaS applications that make sense and we're starting here with SIM, we want to build them and we want to go for it. Yes, this disruption will happen and you know, I think we'll be part of that as well. We will partake in it.
- [35:40]
Deirdre Bosa
So what do you tell? You have tens of thousands of customers, you have lots of software customers as well. How do you make this not threatening for them? How do you convince them to stay on your platform, keep giving you their data when you could turn around and compete with them?
- [35:54]
Ali Gozi
I think that this disruption is going to happen anyway. Like it's like there's no way we can stop time or like stop this from happening. It's just bound to happen. We're going to have Agentix software, that's the new interface. We're going to have databases that are built for agents. That's what we call it lake base at databricks. And you need data. Platform data is the most important. And by the way, you need governance in the middle that actually secures all of that because otherwise you can't just let your agents loose and they're accessing salary data and sensitive data and exfiltrating stuff. So you need good governance as well. This is going to happen anyway. So you know, I think the world will adapt to this new world. Like if we don't do it, others will do it. We will try to be as partner friendly and do it in an open way and work with our partners as much as we can.
- [36:35]
Deirdre Bosa
But it's going to happen. Anyways, as you said last time we spoke, I think it was about a month, maybe six weeks ago. You had just raised the $7 billion. I asked you why. You said that some of your investors and yourself included were feeling a little bit nervous. You were seeing some bubbly behavior in the trade. How do you feel now and how does that make you think about an eventual ipo?
- [36:56]
Ali Gozi
Well, I mean, I feel really good. I think our timing was like perfect. We raised money exactly just before, you know, this meltdown is happening. Now, we thought, frankly speaking, that the meltdown would be on the side, but it's now instead that anything that AI companies do, you know, kind of like just decimates anything in software, frankly. Anything in tech, it seems.
- [37:14]
Deirdre Bosa
But when you say meltdown, do you, what are you referring to?
- [37:17]
Ali Gozi
Well, I'm saying look at the stock market. They just down so much. And you might tell who cares about stock prices, software, anything in technology is down. Right. And what does that mean? Well, it means that those companies, their employees are getting paid less. And by the way, there's this pressure now that SBC needs to be reduced stock based compensation. Well, so that makes it really hard for all of these companies and they have to start cutting and to get more efficient. So it's a perfect time to be private, I think.
- [37:40]
Deirdre Bosa
Couldn't it be a perfect time to go public if you're showing the opposite? I know that you guys are already free, cash flow positive. And I'm assuming you haven't overhired or maybe you have.
- [37:48]
Ali Gozi
I think there's too much volatility this year in so many ways. And, you know, so I think the two years that are the best to be private are 20, 22 in the last half a decade. And then now is the best time to build for that, that future.
- [38:00]
Deirdre Bosa
Okay. Building in private, you'll continue to do so. Ali, thank you so much for chatting with us. Kelly, I'm going to toss it back over to you.
- [38:08]
Kelly Evans
Ipo. Just do it. It's going to be fine. It is. Ali, about that, thank you, Ali Godsee and Deirdre Bosa really appreciate it. Coming up, Anthropic is the first American company to be deemed a supply chain risk by the Pentagon. A decision that a high group, a group of high ranking former military personnel, including secretaries of the Navy and Air Force, say could ultimately hurt military readiness. Anthropic and the DoD will meet in court for the first time in less than three hours. We'll get a live report next. As America celebrates its 250th anniversary. CNBC spotlights the companies that rose with
- [38:47]
Steve Sosnik
the nation and continue to shape its future.
- [38:56]
Karen Kohlberg
I'm Karen Kohlberg, CEO of King Arthur Baking Company, which has been around since 1790 and is America's oldest baking company. King Arthur was founded over 200 years ago and I always like to think of what the country was like at that time. There were 13 states. George Washington was our first president and our founding family at that point said we need flour for people to bake. Flour was a cornerstone of the kitchen and having incredibly high quality flour was important so that people could sustain their families. When I think back over 250 years, it's our values that guide us. They are foundational. They are our commitment to quality, a commitment to our community, and it's Stewardship. We became 100% employee owned in 2004 and it is very much a defining aspect of who we are. We rebranded from King Arthur Flour to King Arthur Baking Company in 2020. We knew that we needed to modernize. We knew that we needed to be setting up the company for the next 50, 100, 250 years. And we wanted the name to reflect that. We can innovate beyond flour. Education and teaching people how to bake is a core part of what has made us success and made our company endure over centuries, whether it was putting recipes in an ad years ago or in today's world offering on demand baking classes so that people can learn how to bake. When I think about King Arthur growing alongside America, I think about resilience. I think about the importance of knowing what you're about, knowing what you're trying to accomplish and knowing who you are.
- [40:50]
Kelly Evans
Hours away from the first decision in what could be a protracted legal battle between Anthropic and the Department of Defense, Mackenzie Segalos is in San Francisco outside the courthouse with the latest on that story. Hi, Mackenzie.
- [41:03]
Mackenzie Segalos
Hey, Kelly. So is this. This is the first time a judge will weigh in on the standoff between Anthropic and the Trump administration. Today's hearing is about Anthropic's requests that a judge block two things until the case concludes. The Pentagon's supply chain risk designation, which effectively blacklisted the company from all federal business. And President Trump's directive ordering the government to stop using Claude. Now, Anthropic argues that's retaliation for exercising its right to protect the speech. The doj, framing this as an operational security issue, saying Anthropic poses a risk because it retains privileged access to Claude and could theoretically tamper with or shut off the model during military operations. But on Monday, the judge tipped her hand a bit, sending both sides a list of questions that she wants answered, including what evidence actually shows Anthropic had ongoing accident access or control over Claude after delivering it to the government. Now, support for Anthropic has been broad. Microsoft filed an amicus brief while roughly 150 former judges and even employees from OpenAI and Google have backed the company, calling this government overreach. And Anthropic is fighting this on two legal fronts here in California on First Amendment grounds and then in D.C. arguing that the Pentagon misused a law meant for foreign adversaries. Both cases, though, they aim to strip that label before the damage is permanent.
- [42:30]
Kelly Evans
Listen, the stakes are very, very high. We look forward to hearing more about it. And Mac, you know, I think I would have done better in calculus, by the way, if you were my teacher in high school. I just there it was, it was a rough time and anyway, we'll talk offline, but but appreciate it very much and congrats. Mackenzie Segalos. Coming up, it's been a rough month for US markets with the S&P down nearly 5% just in March. It's been a lot worse overseas, though. South Korea's high flying Cosby down 11%. European stocks down more than 8. But as the Iran war continues, should you be bargain hunting overseas or staying closer to home? We'll discuss that when the exchange comes right back. Welcome back. The US And Israel waging a war against Iran while other international markets are feeling the most pain about it as concerns about energy costs and supplies persistent. This in Europe, we're talking about 9 and 10% drops this month. Japan's Nikkei, Korea's Cosby are down 11%. And the Hang Seng is the relative outperformer with about a 5% drop. But do all of these dips provide entry points for a larger narrative that might reassert itself if this conflict can pass? Let's bring in Tim Seymour of Seymour Asset Management. He's also a CNBC contributor. And Tim, it was interesting. One of the flips that's happened over the past few weeks is people saying, hey, maybe it is time, time to look at U.S. stocks again. I think I know how you feel about this, but I am just curious as this goes on, if your thinking might change.
- [43:53]
Tim Seymour
Well, what I always try to do, Kelly here. First of all, great to be here and establish that while I run an international ETF, I devo and I've been investing internationally for 30 years I have to be real about trends in history and as someone that's invested in other parts of the world for a long time, I mean there's supply shocks for example, really hit current account countries and hit the effects a lot harder. Doesn't come back right away. So the big picture trends and themes that you set the table on I think are real. But I don't expect necessarily that this is going to be a flip the switch and foreign investors who were overweight US flow immediately back into the 10 year historical average of where they were which is 25 to 30% US and not 50% and US investors who are absolutely, absolutely underway International. You know, it's hard to argue. We could talk about US equities, we could talk about international. I mean there's, there's an argument that megacap tech in US looks kind of interesting here but the setup for international is very good and it's actually been resilient for the last three weeks. Once after the war kind of headlines hit.
- [45:02]
Kelly Evans
Yeah and I see that you're Denny, they were a big part of this to say go international kind of before the turn of the year and they're saying we stick with it. We think that's going to reassert itself, itself. I am curious and again it's not like people are forced, you don't have to do just international if you wanted to do, you know, a little bit of everything like we do in the market. What is interesting to you about big cap tech in the US because is that a move that's now mature and passe even though it's very short, you know, just last three or four weeks or, or. Why is that interesting to you?
- [45:28]
Tim Seymour
Well, I think for example even the headlines with AAM and Metta today show that there is some flexibility. Yes, there's capex being spread but I think if you look at companies like Matter or even Microsoft Broadcom, you're talking about PEG ratio so price to earnings growth of under 2, they've gotten really attractive on forward multiples. I mean Microsoft did 21 times. We know what's going on in software but you can't tell me that there's also not flexibility in the CapEx and in the free cash flow dynamics. And we know that there's a secular growth story and you know every day we, we wage war, we are taking longer to get back to at least some of those EPS trends that started the year when universally the strategists of the world said we're going a lot higher. So I just think you have secular growth that's hard to dispute and that should be defensive here. And these companies were selling off for a year. We could, we could push back. But the bottom line is I think US Mega cap tech is interesting here, but it doesn't mean you shouldn't be looking international.
- [46:30]
Kelly Evans
It's very interesting. We don't have a lot of time, Tim, but quickly, just how is your where are you on metals, on energy? Is that both areas people should lean into or tbd?
- [46:40]
Tim Seymour
Gold is still a safe haven. Make make no mistake. And in fact, the gold investors that were there for the FOMO of, you know, maybe left, maybe they haven't. But, but reality is I like precious metals, but I do think copper demand continues to have also natural supply kind of demand imbalances. And yes, I do think you're going to continue to see energy prices keep moving higher.
- [47:03]
Kelly Evans
All right, Tim, Seymour, appreciate it. Great to see you this afternoon. We'll leave it there with Seymour Asset Management. That's it for us. Thanks for tuning in to the Exchange and I'll join you for power lunch with a whole lot more right after this break. Try angel stuff for you to she. It's made by angels. Soft and strong. Budget friendly. All right. The choice is simple. Pick up a pack today. Angel soft. Soft and strong.