Podcast Summary: The Exchange – "Freight Fright, Consumer Names Report and Uber's Slide"

Date: November 4, 2025
Host: Courtney Reagan (in for Kelly Evans), CNBC
Key Guests/Speakers: Matt Mishkin (Manulife John Hancock), Steve Liesman (CNBC), Hayden Brown (Upwork), Frank Collin (CNBC), Craig Fuller (FreightWaves), Victoria Green (G Squared Private Wealth), Mackenzie Seagal Wallace (CNBC Tech), Chris Tommaso (First Watch Restaurant Group), and others.

Overview

This episode of The Exchange explores market jitters around sky-high tech stock valuations, the real impact of AI on workforce reductions, the acceleration of the freelance economy, pain points in the freight and logistics sector, and fresh analysis of key consumer names like McDonald’s, Norwegian Cruise, and Uber. The show probes beneath headline numbers to clarify speculation vs. reality in tech, labor market shifts, and the evolving shape of American consumption and logistics.

Segment Breakdown & Key Insights

1. Stock Market Snapshot & Valuation Concerns

Segment Start: 00:45

• Host: Courtney Reagan notes broad market declines, with valuation concerns returning to the fore. The S&P 500 trades at a forward P/E of over 23, near levels seen at the dot-com peak in 2000.
• Tech Highfliers Highlighted: Stocks like Palantir (down 7% on earnings, but up 150% YTD), AMD (P/E 51), Intel (P/E 165), and notably Palantir (P/E 259) are questioned for their sustainability.
• Guest: Matt Mishkin (Manulife John Hancock Investments)
  • Encourages investors to focus on the PEG ratio (Price-Earnings to Growth) over raw P/E, emphasizing quality companies with solid balance sheets and low PEGs.
  • “We don't like companies that are trading at 100 plus P/E ratios, but the way that we're looking at valuations today is relative to the growth.” (02:34)
  • Sectors with more reasonable earnings-growth-adjusted valuations: tech, communication services, health care, and industrials.
  • On the economy: Despite worries over a weakening jobs market, corporate earnings projections for 2025 and 2026 are being revised upward.
  • Criticizes the Fed’s recent hawkishness: “We think the Fed made a policy mistake last week coming out more hawkish... That hawkish tilt… may produce more of a negative impact to the economy than they're looking for.” (05:22)

2. AI, Layoffs & Labor Market Narratives

Segment Start: 07:30

- Steve Liesman Investigation

• Dispels the notion that recent mass layoffs at UPS, Amazon, Target, etc., are being primarily caused by AI.
• Many companies, Liesman notes, are engaging in “AI-washing” — blaming job cuts on AI for cover, when in fact many layoffs reflect regular business restructuring or response to economic pressures.
• Notable Quote:
  • “It's much easier for a company to say we're laying off workers because we're realizing AI-related efficiencies than to say we're laying off people because we're not that profitable or bloated.” – Steve Liesman (08:18)
• Goldman survey: AI-related job losses could lead to 4% workforce reductions next year and up to 11% over three years, but most cuts so far are unrelated to AI.
• On Automation: Reminds listeners that not all automation is AI, and “automation is what we've done for 300 years... but it's not AI.” (10:50)

3. Freelance Economy’s AI Boom

Segment Start: 11:54

- Guest: Hayden Brown, CEO, Upwork

• Differentiates “freelance” (large, complex projects, $1.5T US market) from “gig” jobs (small, transactional projects).
• 28% of US knowledge workers are engaged in flexible work; Gen Z freelancing at a 53% rate.
• AI is driving both new demand for skills and the platform’s own product innovation:
  • “Gross services volume from AI-related work jumped 53% year over year in the third quarter.” (14:03)
  • Upwork’s own AI agent, UMA, is responsible for $100M in incremental GSV.
  • Small and mid-size businesses use freelance platforms to competitively access AI skills they can't afford to hire full time.

4. Freight, Logistics & ‘Recession’ Fears

Segment Start: 18:28

- UPS, Amazon, and Labor Dynamics (Frank Collin reporting)

• UPS has cut nearly 50,000 jobs (34,000 operational, 14,000 corporate).
• These job reductions are tied not to automation/AI but to changing business focus (e.g., reducing low-margin Amazon volume).
• Courier and messenger jobs have actually grown 5% YoY due to shifting volumes between companies.
• Expert insight (Jason Miller, Michigan State): It’s “reshuffling” not net job loss — some companies expand as others contract.

- Freight Contraction Like ‘Great Financial Crisis’? (Craig Fuller, FreightWaves)

• Year-over-year trucking volumes down 17%, especially in industrial sectors: “The goods economy, certain portions... are collapsing right now.” (21:28)
• Long-haul freight (energy, automotive, housing, manufacturing) is down 30% YoY — “very Great Financial Crisis levels of concern.”
• The consumer is holding up in retail, but industrial activity is deeply impaired, tied to high rates, inflation in wholesale prices, tariff impacts, and weak manufacturing demand.
• De minimis tariff threshold elimination has worsened parcel freight in the US but is only one of several factors behind demand slowdown.
• Watch housing for a leading indicator of recovery: “As much as 20% of the trucking market is related… to housing. So when people buy a home… all of that drives a substantial amount of freight…” (25:26)

5. Consumer Earnings: Restaurants, Retail & Travel

Segment Start: 29:23

- Victoria Green (G Squared Private Wealth) on Trading Consumer Names

• McDonald’s: A buy—gaining value-conscious consumers from pricier brands like Chipotle, with international growth likely to offset any US slowdown. “I think the stock could overperform here... as the consumer trades down a little bit, maybe a little less at Chipotle, a little bit more at McDonald's.” – Victoria Green (30:09)
• Norwegian Cruise Line: A sell—revenue miss, lower guidance, strategic repositioning to family-friendlier fleet (lower margins), higher debt costs, softening in “experiences” spending.
• Shopify: Remains a growth favorite despite a revenue miss; strong e-commerce and AI integrations.
• Notable Statistic: Shopify up over 4,000% YTD. (33:00)

6. Uber’s Driverless Bet & the Robo-Taxi Race

Segment Start: 34:13

- Reporter: Mackenzie Seagal Wallace

• Uber, despite a strong quarter, guides light on EBITDA; stock slides.
• CEO Dara Khosrowshahi touts AV (autonomous vehicle) expansion to 10 cities next year, partnerships with Waymo, Baidu, Lucid, Neuro, and pilot in the UK.
• Baidu now rivals Waymo in robo-taxi volumes.
• Uber plans to build a fleet of 100,000 Nvidia-powered AVs, aiming for cost-effective self-driving at scale.
• On Regulatory Patchwork: AV rollout varies by market and regulation is inconsistent; key reason for targeted and limited deployments globally.

7. Real Estate Dealmaking and Sector Trends

Segment Start: 37:18

- Reporter: Diana Olek

• Deal activity in commercial real estate well below pre-Covid levels.
• “Flight to quality” trend: $100M+ deals are up 35% YoY in Q3—big buyers like Apple, Nvidia, MetLife snapping up discounted or high-quality assets.
• Office and open-air retail see more activity; hotel sector lags due to economic uncertainty.
• Nuveen and Tanger big on open-air retail (grocery-anchored, essential services).

8. Restaurant Spotlight: First Watch CEO Interview

Segment Start: 42:48

• Guest: Chris Tomasso (First Watch Restaurant Group)
• Despite sector pressures, First Watch posts four consecutive quarters of higher same-store sales and traffic.
• Commodity inflation managed well; margins improved. Most customers are higher-income and not showing signs of trading down or shrinking check sizes.
• “We’re not seeing any difference in their behavior when they come in... We had some positive mix for the quarter.” – Chris Tomasso (43:55)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Market Valuations:
  “We want to make sure these businesses are built to last for a long time. We think about investing in a longer term nature.” – Matt Mishkin (02:34)
• On AI-related Layoffs:
  “It's much easier for a company to say we're laying off workers because we're realizing AI-related efficiencies than to say we're laying off people because we're not that profitable or bloated.” – Steve Liesman (08:18)
• On generational shift in freelance:
  “Gen Z is freelancing at 53% of that knowledge workforce... they’re choosing to work this way because it gives them control and freedom.” – Hayden Brown (13:23)
• On industrial contraction and truck freight:
  “The goods economy, certain portions... are collapsing right now... When you look at the industrial sectors... we're down 30% year over year which is very Great Financial Crisis levels of concern.” – Craig Fuller (21:28)
• On Robo-Taxis:
  “Uber is now aiming to build its own fleet of 100,000 Nvidia powered AVs. Part of its push to make self driving cars cost effective at scale and really own that AV stack.” – Mackenzie Seagal Wallace (35:12)

Segment Timestamps

| Segment | Start Time | |--------------------------------------------------|------------| | Market and Valuations, Palantir focus | 00:45 | | Mishkin on Growth & Valuation Metrics | 02:34 | | Fed Policy and Macroeconomic Outlook | 05:22 | | AI & Layoffs ‘AI-Washing’ Investigation | 07:30 | | Freelance Economy & Upwork | 11:54 | | UPS, Amazon, Freight Employment Trends | 18:28 | | Freight ‘Great Financial Crisis’ Patterns | 21:28 | | Consumer Names: McDonald’s, Norwegian, Shopify | 29:23 | | Uber Automation, Robo-taxis | 34:13 | | Real Estate Deal Trends | 37:18 | | First Watch Restaurant CEO Interview | 42:48 |

Original Tone & Flow

The episode combines urgency about market overextensions, skepticism toward corporate spin around tech and layoffs, journalistic curiosity, and a practical trading lens. The host and guests balance big-picture skepticism with on-the-ground reporting, clear explanations, and concrete data.

Summary Takeaways

• Valuations are historically high, but growth may offer justification—on a selective basis.
• Companies and media must dig deeper behind “AI-driven” layoff headlines—many cuts are overdue restructuring.
• Freelance and flexible work, boosted by AI skills, is accelerating—especially among younger workers.
• Freight and logistics are in severe contraction on the industrial side, with echoes of the GFC; recovery hinges on housing and rates.
• In consumer staples, the pivot to value remains strong (McDonald’s), while travel/leisure and premium segments face more headwinds.
• Automation and robo-taxi efforts are a long game for Uber and others, with regulatory hurdles and operational risks remaining high.
• CRE deal activity is subdued but “quality” assets are still moving at significant volume and discount.
• Dining out remains healthy for higher-income consumers, but cautious for lower-income demographics.

This episode provides a comprehensive, on-the-ground look at underlying stories in business beyond the headlines—key for investors, professionals, and consumers parsing signal from noise in market narratives.