Podcast Summary: The Exchange (CNBC)
Episode: Iran Tensions, Trading Walmart, and “Owning” the Economy
Date: February 19, 2026
Host: Kelly Evans
Overview
This episode of "The Exchange" blends market analysis with deep dives into geopolitical developments, sector rotations in the stock market, and demographic trends shaping the US economy. Key stories include escalating tensions with Iran and their impact on energy prices, divergent fortunes for stocks like Walmart and Deere, and a provocative discussion on how America's seniors "own" the economy. Expert insights are offered by guests including Michael Sansettara (Sylvan Capital), Jihan Ma (Bernstein), Dan Yergen (S&P Global), economic columnist Greg Ip (Wall Street Journal), and market strategist Nancy Tangler.
Key Segments & Insights
1. Old Economy vs. Tech Stocks
[02:00 - 09:34]
Sector Rotation and Market Sentiment
- Markets near session lows; Dow down 377 points, tech struggling, while energy and materials lead YTD.
- Notably, Deere (“old economy”) surges, while tech is soft.
Michael Sansettara on Portfolio Approach
- Growth vs. Value: Tech's dominance in growth indices hasn’t faded, but “old economy” stocks like Deere can play a role:
- “We’ve been waiting for some strength in industrials…this is the first green shoots we saw announced today.” —Michael Sansettara [03:04]
- Stock Selection: Portfolio actively includes both tech (Nvidia) and select industrials (Deere), seeking company-specific growth.
- On Nvidia’s Valuation:
- “The multiple has contracted…it's been growing into its multiple.” —Michael Sansettara [05:53]
- No major rerating expected for tech unless they morph into commodity-like operations, which he rebuffs:
- "No, probably not...the long term demand for these technology companies has been surprisingly resilient because they've managed to continue to innovate." [07:35]
On Software Fear, Picks, and Opportunities
- Applovin and Palantir seen as misunderstood growth stories in currently out-of-favor software sector.
2. Walmart’s High Valuation and Growth Prospects
[09:34 - 13:41]
Jihan Ma (Bernstein) on Walmart
- Valuation dynamics:
- “Walmart is not really at its mature stage earnings power yet… I think the PE multiple looks artificially inflated.” —Jihan Ma [10:15]
- Adjusted PE is more mid-30s rather than reported low-40s, expecting normalization as earnings power catches up in ~3-5 years.
- Omni-channel transformation: Years of investment are “really starting to pay off.”
- E-commerce and Profitability: Growth can't continue 20%+ annually forever, but retail media, automation, and efficiency are new profitability levers.
- Outlook: Target $150/share within a few years if momentum holds, but watch for multiple compression as growth levels off.
3. Geopolitical Tensions: US & Iran and Impact on Oil
[15:45 - 21:07]
Guest: Dan Yergen (S&P Global)
- Rising Tensions:
- US military buildup “the most… since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.” [15:45]
- Both US and Iran preparing—Strait of Hormuz closure for Iranian drills [16:30].
- Objectives:
- President’s goal broadly “very explicitly focused on the nuclear” with no clear appetite for regime change [17:16]; prefers a “very significant deal.”
- Market Impact:
- Oil prices include an “$8–$10/bbl fear premium.” [20:36]
- “If we were not in the position we are in shale, we would see the oil price actually much higher.” —Dan Yergen [19:49]
- Global Preparedness:
- Saudi pipelines and US as energy exporter lessen the chokepoint’s severity.
- Longer-run impact:
- Despite the fear premium, sees recent energy price inflation as mainly geopolitically driven.
4. Deere’s Breakout and Rotation to Industrial "Old Economy"
[23:40 - 26:01]
Seema Modi & Kelly Evans
- Deere surges nearly 13% after smashing earnings forecasts and raising guidance.
- “Earnings beat by 20%. Its outlook for the full year was 6% ahead of consensus.” —Seema Modi [23:40]
- Drivers:
- Higher prices offset tariffs, rebounding demand reduces inventory, ag recovery (notably China buying US soy again).
- “Companies like Deere…make things, tangible items that cannot be disintermediated by AI.” —Brian Sponheimer via Seema Modi [24:52]
- AI-powered precision agriculture is a growth area.
- Valuation caution:
- Deere P/E: 38x now, vs. 18x 5-year average.
- “They're already jumping ahead to some of these conclusions. Maybe we'll see if they can now sustain that.” —Kelly Evans [26:01]
5. Demographics: “Seniors Own the Economy”
[28:51 - 37:08]
Greg Ip (Wall Street Journal), Steve Liesman, Kelly Evans
- Capital Ownership:
- “I was really surprised how much bigger the share of that capital is owned by older people… if you take an aging population and you multiply it by an epic 40-year boom in asset prices, this is what you get.” —Greg Ip [28:51]
- Social Implications:
- Entitlements have “more or less solved elderly poverty.”
- “In 2019, the federal government spent roughly $29,000 on Everybody 65 and over and only around $5,000 or $6,000 on Everybody 18 and younger.” —Greg Ip [34:04]
- Political Tensions:
- “The politics caters to it… older folks come out to vote and young folks don’t.” —Steve Liesman [34:38]
- Future Challenges:
- “I am not convinced that we will have another 40 years in asset markets…there are fewer younger people…to support all the promises we've made to the elderly.” —Greg Ip [35:36]
- On solutions: Immigration reform is necessary to address support ratio issues.
6. AI Rivalry: Anthropic vs. OpenAI Public Snub
[38:04 - 41:04]
Kate Rooney (CNBC)
- Viral moment as Sam Altman (OpenAI) and Dario Amodei (Anthropic) refuse to hold hands on stage at India’s AI Summit.
- “It does speak to a broader competition and growing animosity…a quiet rivalry.” —Kate Rooney [40:38]
- Altman touts India’s growth for OpenAI products; advertising and monetization strategies are emerging.
- Refers to ongoing competitive jibes (Anthropic's Super Bowl ad, etc.).
7. Private Credit Market Volatility and Investor Strategy
[41:05 - 47:09]
With Nancy Tangler (Laffert Tangler Investments)
- Blue Owl halts redemptions, sells $1.4B in assets:
- “I just don’t think you need to take on that kind of risk right now in this environment…” —Nancy Tangler [42:10]
- Cause for broader concern, but risk is manageable with prudent allocations.
- Recommends seeking conservatively managed asset managers (citing Brookfield).
- On opportunity in software: Palantir, Microsoft, ServiceNow positions added on recent pullbacks, exited Adobe and Salesforce.
On Walmart and Deere
- Walmart: Valuation “pretty healthy”… trimmed before earnings due to outsized gains; applauds transformation (automation, e-commerce, advertising growth).
- Deere: Continues to buy; focus on tech stack, improved margins, inventory management, and solid dividend growth.
Notable Quotes & Timestamps
- “We’ve been waiting for some strength in industrials and…this is the first green shoots we saw announced today.”
— Michael Sansettara (02:35) - “The multiple has contracted…it's been growing into its multiple.”
— Michael Sansettara (05:53) - “I think the PE multiple looks artificially inflated… still pretty far away from this long term mature stage earnings power.”
— Jihan Ma (10:15) - “If we were not in the position we are in shale, we would see the oil price actually much higher than it is today.”
— Dan Yergen (19:49) - “A massive amount of wealth in the hands of the people who are now retired.”
— Greg Ip (28:51) - “In 2019, the federal government spent roughly $29,000 on Everybody 65 and over and only around $5,000 or $6,000 on Everybody 18 and younger.”
— Greg Ip (34:04) - “I am not convinced that we will have another 40 years in asset markets… The numbers are just not going to be large enough to support all the promises we've made to the elderly.”
— Greg Ip (35:36) - “I think Blue Owl is a little different… I just don’t think you need to take on that kind of risk right now in this environment.”
— Nancy Tangler (42:10) - “We recently added to Palantir and Microsoft… We think this is a deep seek moment.”
— Nancy Tangler (44:38)
Timestamps Index
- 02:00 – Market overview and sector rotation
- 02:35 – Michael Sansettara on tech vs. industrials
- 05:53 – Nvidia valuation discussion
- 07:35 – Commodity vs. tech thesis
- 10:15 – Jihan Ma on Walmart’s valuation
- 16:30 – Dan Yergen on US-Iran buildup
- 19:49 – Oil market mechanics
- 23:40 – Seema Modi on Deere’s breakout
- 28:51 – Greg Ip on seniors and economic ownership
- 34:04 – Federal spending on age cohorts
- 35:36 – Asset market caution for young generations
- 38:04 – Kate Rooney on the OpenAI-Anthropic rivalry
- 41:05 – Nancy Tangler on Blue Owl/private credit
- 44:38 – Software stock pick discussion
- 45:41 – Walmart and Deere investment strategies
Closing Thoughts
This episode is a cross-section of crucial financial market narratives, from geopolitics and sector rotations, to deep structural changes in demography and wealth. The discourse ranges from tactical investing calls (Walmart, Deere, software) to sweeping analysis on who benefits most from US economic trends—a must-listen for investors tracking both the daily headlines and the long arc shaping wealth in America.