Podcast Summary: The Exchange (CNBC)

Episode: Jobs Report Blowout, Top Tech Picks, and Data Center Tailwinds
Date: February 11, 2026
Host: Kelly Evans

Episode Overview

This episode covers the surprising strength of the January jobs report and its impact on market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, the shifting outlook and volatility in the technology sector, the continued buildout in data centers as a tailwind for industrial hardware suppliers, and the disruptive impact of AI on the workforce and software industry. The show features in-depth analysis with market economists, tech portfolio managers, major company CEOs, and industry reporters.

1. Markets React to Blowout Jobs Report

Segment: 00:54 - 09:17

Key Points:

• January Jobs Data: The jobs report was much stronger than expected, with 75,000 more jobs created than forecasts, and the unemployment rate dipping to 4.3%.
• Market Reaction: Initial market enthusiasm faded quickly, with the Dow giving up a 300-point gain, yields jumping, and tech stocks under pressure.
• Interpretation: Economists warn not to take the strong payroll number at face value due to seasonal adjustments and warning of possible later revisions downward.

Notable Quotes:

• Tom Simons, Jefferies (on strong jobs number):

  "Businesses didn't seem to hire quite as many people during the pre-holiday season. So the way the seasonal adjustments work in the modeling...it ends up with this sort of perversely strong number on payrolls." (02:48)

• Steve Liesman, CNBC (on market's view):

  "There's a massive expectation of job firing that may not have come to fruition because you didn't have the hiring in the early part. So basically the market, especially when it comes to the Fed outlook, is unchanged and that's really the story." (05:11)

Additional Insights:

• Demographics & Labor Force: Participation rates are at a 25-year high among prime-aged workers, and underlying demographic shifts are a central factor in labor market trends.
• Fed Cut Expectations: The jobs data brings "slightly less expectation of cuts," with Simons seeing a run rate of “about 50k jobs a month” as sustainable (08:27).

2. Treasury Auction and Market Sentiment

Segment: 09:17 - 11:24

Key Points:

• 10-Year Treasury Auction: Rick Santelli grades it a "D plus," noting weak demand and that dealers were left holding more of the auction than usual.
• The market digests ongoing volatility amid shifting interest rate expectations.

Notable Quote:

• Rick Santelli, CNBC:

  "The auction, well, it did not go well...It was weak bid to cover. Dealers took 13.4 versus a 9% 10 auction average – weakest since August of last year...It was not a good auction." (09:27)

3. Tech Sector Volatility & Top Picks

Segment: 11:24 - 19:17

Key Points:

• Software Rout: Major software names (ServiceNow, Adobe, AppLovin) drop as much as 5%+ amid narrative fears about circular investing and disruption.
• Portfolio Moves:
  • Nancy Tengler (Laffer Tengler Investments) describes recent exits from Salesforce and Adobe, favoring companies she trusts to adapt to AI (holding/adding Microsoft, Palantir, Apple; still likes ServiceNow).
  • Historical context: Big tech names often rebound strongly after big selloffs.
• Investment Philosophy: Hedge funds and algorithms fuel volatility, but conviction in management and fundamentals is key. Courage and adaptability are required in this environment.

Notable Quotes:

• Nancy Tengler:

  "One of the things you have to do as an investor is you do have to bet on management, and [ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott] is one of the best managers in Wall Street. He's also hopping mad. So I think they will make the pivots." (14:15)
  "You just have to have some courage in these periods and know that when you're wrong, you've got to exit." (15:38)

4. Spotlight: Generac’s Data Center Boom

Segment: 21:28 - 26:27

Key Points:

• Generac Stock Surges: Shares up 18%, riding the wave of data center demand despite a temporary hit in residential generator sales.
• Business Breakdown:
  • Residential business awaits normal power outage trends to rebound.
  • The explosive driver is the commercial/industrial segment supplying diesel backup generators to data centers.
• Scale of Opportunity:
  • Data centers require enormous backup power (hundreds of units per site, each costing ~$1.5M).
  • CEO Aaron Jagdfeld: “There are data centers being built today...that take a gigawatt of power.”
• Why Diesel?: Diesel chosen over natural gas due to reliability; supply constraints with natural gas in some regions.

Notable Quotes:

• Aaron Jagdfeld, Generac CEO:

  "These are operations, they can’t have even a second of downtime...They have to invest in these types of backup assets to protect those revenue streams." (24:37)

5. Mazda’s Resurgence Through Affordability

Segment: 33:15 - 38:22

Key Points:

• Mazda’s US Strategy: Focus on affordable vehicles (CX-5, Mazda 3) to achieve half-a-million annual US sales by the end of the decade.
• Tariff Navigation: Growing US manufacturing in Alabama; nimbleness with supply chain and production decisions.
• Consumer Behavior:
  • US car buyers are nervous, taking longer to finalize purchases, but are still shopping.
  • There’s rising demand for affordable sedans (Mazda 3).

Notable Quotes:

• Tom Donnelly, Mazda North America CEO:

  "If customers are making decisions in two weeks or three weeks, they're now taking five and six weeks...People are shopping in that $30,000 to $40,000 range in a big way." (34:36, 37:13)

6. AI Disruption in the Workforce and Software

Segment: 39:15 - 41:13

Key Points:

• Viral CEO Warning: Matt Schumer’s viral post argues AI is now replacing, not just helping, technical work — and this will hit non-tech jobs soon.
• Real-World Impact:
  • Salesforce and Workday are both cutting headcount.
  • New “AI-native” companies like Anthropic operate with far leaner workforces, hinting at a lasting shift in how many people will be required at future large software companies.
• Market Implications: Software stocks suffer as the market recalibrates expectations about future employment and revenue models due to AI.

Notable Quotes:

• Deirdre Bosa, CNBC:

  "AI doesn't just help him do his job anymore. It actually replaces the technical work. And he's warning that what is happening to tech workers is coming for everyone else." (39:30)

• Kelly Evans:

  "Do you need a 70,000 person workforce for some of the software that's happening? I don't know." (41:13)

7. AI and Ad Tech Innovation with Mountain CEO

Segment: 42:29 - 47:44

Key Points:

• Mountain’s AI Story: Adtech firm Mountain grows revenue 36% YoY. AI is now central to everything they do, from coding to generating marketing videos.
• AI in Practice:
  • Example: AI-generated ad video cost $500 and took less than a day — would have cost $75,000 and taken weeks with traditional production.
• Job Impact: Rather than destroy jobs, AI tools are increasing demand and opportunity for creative work; lower costs spur more content creation.
• Advertising Outlook:
  • Netflix and the ad-tier market present a significant backlog/opportunity for the ad industry.
  • Small businesses can now advertise on premium platforms like Netflix at costs comparable to Instagram or TikTok.

Notable Quotes:

• Mark Douglas, Mountain CEO:

  "We actually created more work...the cost is coming down like the production costs, but the amount of activity is going up substantially." (44:06)
  "Anything you see from Mountain that doesn't have Ryan Reynolds in it is AI generated." (42:40)
  "It was done in under a day, nine versions by the second day, and cost $500." (43:44)

8. Other Market Movers (Brief Highlights)

Segment: 28:27 - 33:15

• Mattel: Drops 22% after earnings miss and weak guidance.
• Meta: Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square has taken a new 10% stake.
• Robinhood: Down 11.5% after a mixed quarter and big drop in crypto trading revenue.
• Britney Spears: Sells catalog for $200M.
• Mazda and data center-related industrials/Energy: See earlier sections for in-depth discussion.

Timeline Quick Reference

| Time | Topic/Segment | |------|---------------| | 00:54–09:17 | Market and Jobs Report Analysis, Fed Outlook (Tom Simons & Steve Liesman) | | 09:17–11:24 | 10-year Treasury Auction Recap (Rick Santelli) | | 11:24–19:17 | Tech Sector Moves & Portfolio Management (Nancy Tengler) | | 21:28–26:27 | Generac & Data Center Tailwind (CEO Aaron Jagdfeld) | | 33:15–38:22 | Mazda’s Growth Strategy & Consumer Sentiment (Tom Donnelly) | | 39:15–41:13 | AI Workforce Disruption & Software Industry (Deirdre Bosa etc.) | | 42:29–47:44 | Ad Tech, AI, and Small Biz Opportunity (Mark Douglas, Mountain CEO) |

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• The Fed and Labor Market Math:
  Steve Liesman’s Greenspan joke – “The vast number of people that are 35 today in 30 years will be 65. That’s kind of funny, right?” (07:36)

• On Ride-Out Tech Volatility:
  Nancy Tengler: “You just have to have some courage in these periods and know when you’re wrong, you’ve got to exit. And that’s what we did with Salesforce and Adobe.” (15:38)

• On AI’s Paradigm Shift:
  Deirdre Bosa: “AI doesn't just help him do his job anymore. It actually replaces the technical work. And he's warning that what is happening to tech workers is coming for everyone else.” (39:30)

• Generac’s Data Center Scale:
  Aaron Jagdfeld: “A fairly decent sized data center could have a couple hundred of those machines...the upside is staggering.” (23:50)

• AI Ad Production Revolution:
  Mark Douglas: “It was done in under a day, nine versions by the second day, and cost $500 [vs. $75k under old model].” (43:44)

Conclusion

This episode delivers a rich mix of breaking economic data, professional portfolio insights, sector-specific company stories, and big-picture trends—most notably the continued market shake-up around AI disruption, its impact on both blue-chip tech names and the workforce at large, and the enormous capital flowing into data center infrastructure. With seasoned guests and pointed questions, the discussion navigates the line between Wall Street's short-term volatility and the fundamental long-term shifts that will define the coming decade.