The Exchange (CNBC) — "Low P/E Picks, Mixed Media & Tesla's ‘Monster Year’ Ahead"

Date: December 15, 2025
Host: Kelly Evans
Featured Guests: Charlie Brinskoy (Ariel Investments), Sima Modi (CNBC), Christina Partsinevelos (CNBC), Stacey Rasgon (Bernstein), Peter Supino (Wolf Research), Dan Ives (Wedbush), Eunice Yoon (CNBC Beijing)

Overview

This episode of "The Exchange" navigates key developments in financial markets as the trading year nears its close. Host Kelly Evans leads a fast-paced discussion covering volatility in tech stocks (notably Oracle and Broadcom), the real risks and opportunities in AI-related capex, strategic sector rotation for 2026, analysis of Nvidia’s China dilemma, a sharp look at media/streaming shakeups, an exposé into FDA spending, and a bullish deep dive on Tesla’s AI-driven future. The episode closes on the intersection between AI and children’s toys, offering a window into China’s consumer tech trends.

1. Market Update & Oracle’s AI Challenge

[01:00–07:41]

Key Points

Market Slide: Stocks are down heading into the last full trading week of the year; Oracle and Broadcom are major drags, particularly following negative sentiment around hyperscaler profitability.
Oracle’s Wild Ride:
- Oracle’s stock skyrocketed from $118 at 18x P/E to $350 at more than 30x, before tumbling back.
- AI/data center buildout is real, but profitability and margin transparency concern many, as does a rising debt load surrounding its expansion.
- Credit markets have turned cautious, treating Oracle as potentially sliding below investment grade.
Sector Rotation: Value investors like Charlie Brinskoy are reducing Oracle exposure and looking to banks, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and materials for better risk/reward in 2026.
Quote (Charlie Brinskoy, 02:25):
"There are good companies but not so good stocks. And that's what this was. Oracle is still extremely well positioned... the stock just got way ahead of itself."

Notable Exchange

On AI & Oracle’s Position:
"AI is real. Data centers are real. [Oracle is] the leading company in data software for big companies... those companies are going to want to use AI to create their own benefits from their own data." — Brinskoy (03:29)
On Debt & Disclosure: "They’re not being very forthcoming on the profitability of the contracts... We need a little more disclosure." — Brinskoy (03:58)

2. Credit Markets & AI Capex Jitters

[04:54–07:41]
Guest: Sima Modi

Key Takeaways

Oracle’s heavy capex and looming jumbo bond issuance has spooked credit investors; five-year CDS spreads are at highs not seen in some time, reflecting uncertainty and the need for banks to hedge risks.
Sector-wide, companies like Meta and CoreWeave also face widening bond spreads as markets puzzle over who’ll profit from the massive AI/data center buildout — and at what risk.
The playbook for 2026: Focus on sectors and names less exposed to AI capital intensity and more likely to benefit from cyclical inflation, such as consumer, banks, real estate, and materials (e.g., Barrick Gold, Johnson & Johnson, Madison Square Garden).

Memorable Quote

"The Magnificent Seven is still overpriced... If you just own the S&P 500, you are making a big bet on AI." — Brinskoy (09:41)

3. Nvidia, AI Chips, & the China Limitation

[11:14–17:47]
Guests: Christina Partsinevelos and Stacey Rasgon

Headlines

Nvidia may boost H200 chip production after Chinese orders outpace expectations, despite export controls.
Key Questions: Will Nvidia/TSMC have the capacity, and will China actually buy amid government pressure to favor domestic suppliers?
China’s Play: The government encourages local alternatives; Nvidia has zeroed out China in its forecasts, so any sales are “upside only.”
AI Supply > Demand: Constraints are manufacturing, not demand; Nvidia is “selling everything they can make.” The limiting factor is wafer/packaging/memory capacity, not interest.
Investor Cautiousness vs. Real Demand:
"The only ones right now that seem to be worried about demand and sustainability seem to be the investors. The actual [companies] that are doing the spending right now — it’s full steam ahead." — Stacey Rasgon (17:19)

4. Media & Streaming Shakeout for 2026

[19:55–25:38]
Guest: Peter Supino (Wolf Research)

Main Discussion

Paramount Struggles: Sub-scale in a world where streaming is defined by scale (fewer, less lucrative subscribers, and low recent studio productivity).
- Paramount needs a Warner deal for survival, but pursuing it brings high debt and risk (21:20).
Streaming Remains Fragmented: Owners of sports/film/TV IP will resist “winner-take-all” dominance by Netflix.
Valuable Bets: Live entertainment and music benefit from higher IP value — especially for “superstars.” Live Nation and Spotify highlighted as key investment vehicles for this trend.
Cautious Outlook: Streaming faces rising costs, diminishing returns as the fight for sports rights intensifies and the “easy wins” of consolidation are past.

Notable Quote

"Streaming is heading into a period of rising costs, deteriorating marginal returns... what’s next seems to be growing by way of buying sports rights, which is expensive." — Peter Supino (24:46)

5. FDA Spending Investigation

[30:25–34:29]
Reporter: Melissa Lee

Key Points

Amid a government shutdown and amidst major staff/budget cuts, the FDA sent 31 staffers on a $250,000 trip to a Singapore conference — funded not by taxpayer dollars but by drug/device “user fees”—prompting watchdogs and lawmakers to question the agency’s priorities and optics.
The conference had virtual attendance options (some FDA staffers attended virtually).
FDA removed policy links from its website after inquiry, providing limited further comment.

Notable Quote

"Those dollars are still public dollars. Those still belong to all of us, the American public." — Dylan Hetler Gaudet, Project on Government Oversight (33:10)

6. Tesla’s "Monster Year" Ahead

[35:28–42:25]
Guest: Dan Ives (Wedbush)

Key Insights

2026 Bull Thesis: Tesla will shift from being “just” an electric vehicle maker to a central AI/physical AI player, with robotaxis, cybercabs, and robotics (Optimus).
- Autonomous driving/FSD could see penetration climb from 15% to 50%+ of Tesla buyers, radically boosting margins.
- Tesla could command 70–80% of the global autonomous market.
Valuation: Ives sees potential for a $2–3 trillion market cap by late 2026/early 2027.
SpaceX IPO & Musk Factor: If SpaceX goes public (possibly in 2026), it could expand rather than cannibalize the Musk “ecosystem” — but Tesla remains “the best play” on physical AI.

Notable Quotes

"When it comes to physical AI, nothing better than Nvidia and Tesla... I think we're looking at 2 trillion, probably a 3 trillion [dollar] market cap by late 2026." — Dan Ives (35:46)
"From a margin perspective, [FSD] is going to be huge. Look, Waymo is going to be a rounding error compared to what Tesla is going to do." — Ives (39:45)
"Now you look at Musk, laser-focused on what's going to be the most important chapter for Tesla... It shows investors are recognizing what autonomous, what robotics could mean for the Tesla story." — Ives (41:47)

7. China’s AI Toy Boom & Data Privacy

[43:12–46:44]
Reporter: Eunice Yoon

Highlights

China is mass-producing AI-embedded toys (e.g., Ultraman chatbot, Luna the AI puppy) with growing sophistication, voice recognition, and adaptive learning (banked in the cloud).
Risks: Many run on cloud-based memories, raising data privacy and surveillance concerns.
- Some AI toys can work offline for rural settings, but parents and experts note the potential for hacking or misuse.
Cultural Insight: Chinese families and children are eagerly embracing AI, and the segment reached an estimated $4 billion mark.

Memorable Moment

Demonstration of Ultraman AI toy offering guidance (“No, it’s a terrible idea” when asked about doing drugs), showing the tech’s potential as a parental tool, but also raising issues of appropriate boundaries and data exposure.

8. Additional Noteworthy Points

Stocks in Focus: ServiceNow slumps hard (~12%); Zillow and CoStar fall on reports of Google testing direct real estate listings; Costco downgraded despite solid earnings.
Consumer Trends: High-end consumers continue to show strength; car supply chain stocks like Finia and BorgWarner are outperformers.
AI Supply Chain: Nvidia “sells everything it can make,” and demand exceeds production capacity, making supply constraints the governing issue.

Timestamps for Key Segments

Oracle & AI Skepticism: 01:00–07:41
Nvidia, AI Chips, and China: 11:14–17:47
Media/Streaming Outlook: 19:55–25:38
FDA Singapore Trip Investigation: 30:25–34:29
Tesla Bull Case (Dan Ives): 35:28–42:25
AI Toys in China (Eunice Yoon): 43:12–46:44

Notable Quotes

Charlie Brinskoy (Oracle):
"There are good companies but not so good stocks. And that's what this was." (02:25)
Stacey Rasgon (Nvidia):
"The only ones right now that seem to be worried about demand and sustainability seem to be the investors. The actual [companies] that are doing the spending right now, it's full steam ahead." (17:19)
Dan Ives (Tesla):
"When it comes to physical AI... this is going to be a golden chapter for Tesla." (35:46)
Eunice Yoon (AI Toys):
"AI toys aren’t without risk. Some of the companies... have all of those what they described as, as memories or... other data... banked in the cloud. So in that way, there is some exposure to risk." (46:07)

Tone & Style

Crisp, analytical, and fast-paced in CNBC’s trademark style.
Direct quotes illustrate the strongly opinionated, occasionally contrarian voices.
Segments blend market immediacy with deep dives, expert analysis, and a sense of urgency looking into 2026 and beyond.

Summary Prepared for:
Anyone interested in tech investing, AI impacts across sectors, 2026 market positioning, and the intersection of regulation, innovation, and global competition. This episode is a must for those needing both an overview and granular insights into AI’s real risks/rewards—and the new frontiers being set by Tesla, Nvidia, and China’s consumer sector.

The Exchange (CNBC) — "Low P/E Picks, Mixed Media & Tesla's ‘Monster Year’ Ahead"

Overview

1. Market Update & Oracle’s AI Challenge

[01:00–07:41]

Key Points

Market Slide: Stocks are down heading into the last full trading week of the year; Oracle and Broadcom are major drags, particularly following negative sentiment around hyperscaler profitability.
Oracle’s Wild Ride:
- Oracle’s stock skyrocketed from $118 at 18x P/E to $350 at more than 30x, before tumbling back.
- AI/data center buildout is real, but profitability and margin transparency concern many, as does a rising debt load surrounding its expansion.
- Credit markets have turned cautious, treating Oracle as potentially sliding below investment grade.
Sector Rotation: Value investors like Charlie Brinskoy are reducing Oracle exposure and looking to banks, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and materials for better risk/reward in 2026.
Quote (Charlie Brinskoy, 02:25):
"There are good companies but not so good stocks. And that's what this was. Oracle is still extremely well positioned... the stock just got way ahead of itself."

Notable Exchange

On AI & Oracle’s Position:
"AI is real. Data centers are real. [Oracle is] the leading company in data software for big companies... those companies are going to want to use AI to create their own benefits from their own data." — Brinskoy (03:29)
On Debt & Disclosure: "They’re not being very forthcoming on the profitability of the contracts... We need a little more disclosure." — Brinskoy (03:58)

2. Credit Markets & AI Capex Jitters

[04:54–07:41]
Guest: Sima Modi

Key Takeaways

Oracle’s heavy capex and looming jumbo bond issuance has spooked credit investors; five-year CDS spreads are at highs not seen in some time, reflecting uncertainty and the need for banks to hedge risks.
Sector-wide, companies like Meta and CoreWeave also face widening bond spreads as markets puzzle over who’ll profit from the massive AI/data center buildout — and at what risk.
The playbook for 2026: Focus on sectors and names less exposed to AI capital intensity and more likely to benefit from cyclical inflation, such as consumer, banks, real estate, and materials (e.g., Barrick Gold, Johnson & Johnson, Madison Square Garden).

Memorable Quote

"The Magnificent Seven is still overpriced... If you just own the S&P 500, you are making a big bet on AI." — Brinskoy (09:41)

3. Nvidia, AI Chips, & the China Limitation

[11:14–17:47]
Guests: Christina Partsinevelos and Stacey Rasgon

Headlines

Nvidia may boost H200 chip production after Chinese orders outpace expectations, despite export controls.
Key Questions: Will Nvidia/TSMC have the capacity, and will China actually buy amid government pressure to favor domestic suppliers?
China’s Play: The government encourages local alternatives; Nvidia has zeroed out China in its forecasts, so any sales are “upside only.”
AI Supply > Demand: Constraints are manufacturing, not demand; Nvidia is “selling everything they can make.” The limiting factor is wafer/packaging/memory capacity, not interest.
Investor Cautiousness vs. Real Demand:
"The only ones right now that seem to be worried about demand and sustainability seem to be the investors. The actual [companies] that are doing the spending right now — it’s full steam ahead." — Stacey Rasgon (17:19)

4. Media & Streaming Shakeout for 2026

[19:55–25:38]
Guest: Peter Supino (Wolf Research)

Main Discussion

Paramount Struggles: Sub-scale in a world where streaming is defined by scale (fewer, less lucrative subscribers, and low recent studio productivity).
- Paramount needs a Warner deal for survival, but pursuing it brings high debt and risk (21:20).
Streaming Remains Fragmented: Owners of sports/film/TV IP will resist “winner-take-all” dominance by Netflix.
Valuable Bets: Live entertainment and music benefit from higher IP value — especially for “superstars.” Live Nation and Spotify highlighted as key investment vehicles for this trend.
Cautious Outlook: Streaming faces rising costs, diminishing returns as the fight for sports rights intensifies and the “easy wins” of consolidation are past.

Notable Quote

"Streaming is heading into a period of rising costs, deteriorating marginal returns... what’s next seems to be growing by way of buying sports rights, which is expensive." — Peter Supino (24:46)

5. FDA Spending Investigation

[30:25–34:29]
Reporter: Melissa Lee

Key Points

Amid a government shutdown and amidst major staff/budget cuts, the FDA sent 31 staffers on a $250,000 trip to a Singapore conference — funded not by taxpayer dollars but by drug/device “user fees”—prompting watchdogs and lawmakers to question the agency’s priorities and optics.
The conference had virtual attendance options (some FDA staffers attended virtually).
FDA removed policy links from its website after inquiry, providing limited further comment.

Notable Quote

"Those dollars are still public dollars. Those still belong to all of us, the American public." — Dylan Hetler Gaudet, Project on Government Oversight (33:10)

6. Tesla’s "Monster Year" Ahead

[35:28–42:25]
Guest: Dan Ives (Wedbush)

Key Insights

2026 Bull Thesis: Tesla will shift from being “just” an electric vehicle maker to a central AI/physical AI player, with robotaxis, cybercabs, and robotics (Optimus).
- Autonomous driving/FSD could see penetration climb from 15% to 50%+ of Tesla buyers, radically boosting margins.
- Tesla could command 70–80% of the global autonomous market.
Valuation: Ives sees potential for a $2–3 trillion market cap by late 2026/early 2027.
SpaceX IPO & Musk Factor: If SpaceX goes public (possibly in 2026), it could expand rather than cannibalize the Musk “ecosystem” — but Tesla remains “the best play” on physical AI.

Notable Quotes

"When it comes to physical AI, nothing better than Nvidia and Tesla... I think we're looking at 2 trillion, probably a 3 trillion [dollar] market cap by late 2026." — Dan Ives (35:46)
"From a margin perspective, [FSD] is going to be huge. Look, Waymo is going to be a rounding error compared to what Tesla is going to do." — Ives (39:45)
"Now you look at Musk, laser-focused on what's going to be the most important chapter for Tesla... It shows investors are recognizing what autonomous, what robotics could mean for the Tesla story." — Ives (41:47)

7. China’s AI Toy Boom & Data Privacy

[43:12–46:44]
Reporter: Eunice Yoon

Highlights

China is mass-producing AI-embedded toys (e.g., Ultraman chatbot, Luna the AI puppy) with growing sophistication, voice recognition, and adaptive learning (banked in the cloud).
Risks: Many run on cloud-based memories, raising data privacy and surveillance concerns.
- Some AI toys can work offline for rural settings, but parents and experts note the potential for hacking or misuse.
Cultural Insight: Chinese families and children are eagerly embracing AI, and the segment reached an estimated $4 billion mark.

Memorable Moment

Demonstration of Ultraman AI toy offering guidance (“No, it’s a terrible idea” when asked about doing drugs), showing the tech’s potential as a parental tool, but also raising issues of appropriate boundaries and data exposure.

8. Additional Noteworthy Points

Stocks in Focus: ServiceNow slumps hard (~12%); Zillow and CoStar fall on reports of Google testing direct real estate listings; Costco downgraded despite solid earnings.
Consumer Trends: High-end consumers continue to show strength; car supply chain stocks like Finia and BorgWarner are outperformers.
AI Supply Chain: Nvidia “sells everything it can make,” and demand exceeds production capacity, making supply constraints the governing issue.

Timestamps for Key Segments

Oracle & AI Skepticism: 01:00–07:41
Nvidia, AI Chips, and China: 11:14–17:47
Media/Streaming Outlook: 19:55–25:38
FDA Singapore Trip Investigation: 30:25–34:29
Tesla Bull Case (Dan Ives): 35:28–42:25
AI Toys in China (Eunice Yoon): 43:12–46:44

Notable Quotes

Charlie Brinskoy (Oracle):
"There are good companies but not so good stocks. And that's what this was." (02:25)
Stacey Rasgon (Nvidia):
"The only ones right now that seem to be worried about demand and sustainability seem to be the investors. The actual [companies] that are doing the spending right now, it's full steam ahead." (17:19)
Dan Ives (Tesla):
"When it comes to physical AI... this is going to be a golden chapter for Tesla." (35:46)
Eunice Yoon (AI Toys):
"AI toys aren’t without risk. Some of the companies... have all of those what they described as, as memories or... other data... banked in the cloud. So in that way, there is some exposure to risk." (46:07)

Tone & Style

Crisp, analytical, and fast-paced in CNBC’s trademark style.
Direct quotes illustrate the strongly opinionated, occasionally contrarian voices.
Segments blend market immediacy with deep dives, expert analysis, and a sense of urgency looking into 2026 and beyond.

Low P/E Picks, Mixed Media & Tesla's ‘Monster Year’ Ahead 12/15/25

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Summary

The Exchange (CNBC) — "Low P/E Picks, Mixed Media & Tesla's ‘Monster Year’ Ahead"

Overview

1. Market Update & Oracle’s AI Challenge

Key Points

Notable Exchange

2. Credit Markets & AI Capex Jitters

Key Takeaways

Memorable Quote

3. Nvidia, AI Chips, & the China Limitation

Headlines

4. Media & Streaming Shakeout for 2026

Main Discussion

Notable Quote

5. FDA Spending Investigation

Key Points

Notable Quote

6. Tesla’s "Monster Year" Ahead

Key Insights

Notable Quotes

7. China’s AI Toy Boom & Data Privacy

Highlights

Memorable Moment

8. Additional Noteworthy Points

Timestamps for Key Segments

Notable Quotes

Tone & Style

Summary

The Exchange (CNBC) — "Low P/E Picks, Mixed Media & Tesla's ‘Monster Year’ Ahead"

Overview

1. Market Update & Oracle’s AI Challenge

Key Points

Notable Exchange

2. Credit Markets & AI Capex Jitters

Key Takeaways

Memorable Quote

3. Nvidia, AI Chips, & the China Limitation

Headlines

4. Media & Streaming Shakeout for 2026

Main Discussion

Notable Quote

5. FDA Spending Investigation

Key Points

Notable Quote

6. Tesla’s "Monster Year" Ahead

Key Insights

Notable Quotes

7. China’s AI Toy Boom & Data Privacy

Highlights

Memorable Moment

8. Additional Noteworthy Points

Timestamps for Key Segments

Notable Quotes

Tone & Style