The Exchange (CNBC): "Markets Rebound, Bitcoin Breaks Down & Google's Gains"

Date: November 21, 2025
Host: Contessa Brewer (in for Kelly Evans)

Episode Overview

This episode of The Exchange dives into a dramatic market rebound, with stocks reversing after a significant dip and optimism mounting for a December Fed rate cut. The conversation covers major reversals in equities, sector winners, the mounting pressure on Bitcoin and crypto, and a detailed look at why Alphabet (Google) is outpacing its tech peers on AI. The episode features insights from market strategists, retail analysts, and CNBC’s tech reporters, highlighting volatility, risk sentiment, and where to find opportunities during ongoing uncertainty.

Key Segments & Insights

1. Fed Policy Shift Sparks Market Rally

[01:36 – 05:15]

• Fed’s December Rate Cut Odds Jump:
  Steve Liesman reports that New York Fed President John Williams alluded to a near-term policy adjustment, swinging market expectations for a December rate cut from 33% to 66%.

  • “Williams dropping a single line about current policy in a speech in Chile where he said, quote: ‘I still see room for a Fed further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate.’” (Steve Liesman, [02:43])
  • Key question: “How many voters on the Fed follow the leader?” (Steve Liesman, [04:08])

• Boston Fed’s Take:
  Susan Collins stresses a cautious and gradual approach:

  • “My baseline says that maintaining mildly restrictive policy is appropriate to ensure that we get that disinflation. … I would absolutely expect to normalize further … cautiously, gradually is appropriate.” (Susan Collins, [03:30])

• Data Headwinds:
  Liesman notes the Fed may make its next decision without key data, increasing uncertainty and potential for dissent:

  • “They don’t have a lot of the main data points. … Fed’s going to meet, make a decision. … I think there’s going to be 3, 4 dissents whichever way.” (Steve Liesman, [04:38])

2. Investment Outlook: Where to Find Opportunities

Guest: John Stolfas, Chief Investment Strategist, Oppenheimer
[05:15 – 10:03]

• Resilience = Buying Opportunity:

  • Stolfas sees economic dips as buying chances, emphasizing “babies thrown out with the bathwater.”
  • “We continue to like infotech, communication services. We like industrials, we like financials, and yes, we do like consumer discretionary.” (John Stolfas, [05:58])
  • Cyclical sectors are preferred over defensives; volatility is part of the story.
  • Predicts a 25 basis point cut in December:
    • “We can't help but think this will let people know … the Fed is in the process of ending the Fed funds hike cycle that started in March of 2022.” (John Stolfas, [07:01])

• Caution Areas:

  • Real estate and materials not favored; utilities gaining appeal as rate cuts make their yields more attractive.

3. Technical Outlook: Signals to Watch

Guest: Jessica Inskip, Director of Investor Research, Stockbrokers.com
[10:03 – 15:12]

• Bullish but “At Risk” Trading Cycle:
  • Watching key moving averages (13, 26, 40-week), with the 13-week now breached, turning from support to resistance.
  • “The 13 week is that first line of defense … we’ve actually breached that and now that has become resistance … 6650 is a moving target.” (Jessica Inskip, [10:42])
• Short-Term vs Structural Moves:
  • A break signals likelihood of a short-term correction (next support at 6400).
  • Market could become “range bound” without a broader rally.
  • “If we do not get any Fed rate cuts … we have a volatility spike and then we start testing all these levels.” (Jessica Inskip, [14:16])

4. Retail Recap: Value Retailers Win the Day

Guest: Melissa Repko, CNBC.com Retail Reporter
[17:15 – 19:46]

• “Value” is Back:

  • Highlights Walmart and TJX outperforming, noting value attracts all income brackets during uncertainty.
  • “Retailers are winning wallet share regardless of income level.” (Melissa Repko, [17:46])

• Old Navy Success, Target Struggles:

  • Old Navy’s strong performance due to value reputation means less discounting is needed.
  • Target faces inventory and staffing problems, contributing to flat sales.

• Walmart Rivals Amazon in E-commerce:

  • 28% US e-commerce growth for Walmart, with strong gains in general merchandise categories.

5. Morgan Stanley’s Bullish Double Upgrade on Retail

Guest: Alex Drayton, Morgan Stanley
[20:14 – 24:49]

• Early Cycle Thesis:
  • MS sees “Liberation Day” as ending a multi-year recession, entering an “early-cycle environment,” favoring consumer discretionary.
  • “They double upgraded consumer discretionary goods to overweight … certainly a meaningful change in view.” (Alex Drayton, [20:21])
• Stock Picks:
  • Favors Gap, Macy’s, and Urban Outfitters (early cycle winners with positive revision paths, low valuations, and improving trends).
• Quote:
  • “If you want to play early cycle, you'd also take a basket approach to department stores and specialty retailers.” (Alex Drayton, [24:27])

6. Crypto Downturn: Bitcoin’s Troubles

Guest: Mackenzie Sagalos
[40:31 – 42:28]

• Bitcoin Tests Critical $80,000 Level:
  • $2B in liquidations, “fear and greed” index at lowest since 2022, and major outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
  • “At this point we’re only down around 30% from last month’s all-time high for bitcoin. But the worry here is fading momentum.” (Mackenzie Sagalos, [41:35])
• Institutions Not Buying the Dip:
  • Larger wallets selling; dormant coins moving—signs of big players losing conviction.
• Macro Backdrop:
  • Doubts about a December Fed cut and a higher correlation with AI stocks are adding pressure.

7. Risk Sentiment & Options Market: Time for Caution?

Guest: Dirk Wheeler, Citi Research; Chris Murphy, Susquehanna
[30:39 – 47:28]

• Santa Rally Under Threat:

  • “The whole world bought into the Santa Claus rally … odds to lose money Nov/Dec are quite low.” (Dirk Wheeler, [30:41])
  • Nvidia’s strong earnings failed to prop up markets; bubble doubts rise, especially over AI order quality and OpenAI’s private status.

• AI Bubble or Bull Market?

  • “When you enter bubble territory, you are not supposed to get bearish, you’re supposed to be bullish. ... The difference is that it usually ends badly if you’re in a bubble...” (Dirk Wheeler, [33:54])
  • Google seen as better positioned than OpenAI, thanks to profitability and reach.

• Options Market Signals Hedging, Not Panic:

  • “High put volumes and more aggressive demand for downside suggest caution, but it doesn’t seem like panic mode.” (Chris Murphy, [46:49])
  • Big move: Bearish collar on the Bitcoin ETF, indicating continued downside bets in crypto.

8. Alphabet’s AI Surge and Industry Impact

Tech Segment with Deirdre Bosa
[37:12 – 40:08]

• Google Takes AI Lead:
  • Sam Altman tells OpenAI staff to prepare for “rough vibes” as Google's Gemini 3 wins industry accolades.
  • Google’s “full stack” advantage: “distribution, ecosystem, chips, models, products.”
  • “They released [Gemini 3] across the [Google] ecosystem…potentially billions of users who aren’t even necessarily looking for a chatbot.” (Deirdre Bosa, [38:49])
  • Google’s financial strength gives it an edge over OpenAI and other rivals in an AI downturn.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Babies that get thrown out with the bathwater, those really great stocks that…get thrown down like hot potatoes onto the floor by the traders.” (John Stolfas, [05:59])
• "We're building an AI bubble and the Fed is cutting into it. So that is extremely bullish." (Dirk Wheeler, [31:10])
• “The market is doubting a little bit the quality of some of the order numbers that are floating around.” (Dirk Wheeler, [32:09])
• “The difference between a bubble and a normal bull market though is that it usually ends badly if you’re in a bubble and you give back most of these gains eventually.” (Dirk Wheeler, [33:54])
• “I call it the ceiling of uncertainty because it’s when the first tariff was actually introduced and until we overcame and got tariff clarity, we did not overcome that ceiling.” (Jessica Inskip, [14:16])
• “My baseline says that maintaining mildly restrictive policy is appropriate to ensure that we get that disinflation.” (Susan Collins, [03:30])
• "[On Google] They have the distribution…the power of the best model out there right now…so even your mom…might be using Gemini 3 and thinking this is the best one." (Deirdre Bosa, [38:49])

Timestamps of Important Segments

• 01:36 – Market Recap, Fed policy news introduction
• 02:38 – Steve Liesman on Fed rate cut odds
• 05:15 – John Stolfas’s sector recommendations
• 10:03 – Jessica Inskip’s technical breakdown
• 17:15 – Retail earnings and “value” theme
• 20:14 – Morgan Stanley’s bullish outlook & stock picks
• 30:39 – Dirk Wheeler on risk and “Santa” rally
• 37:12 – Alphabet AI surge & tech rivalry
• 40:31 – Bitcoin’s downturn explained
• 43:28 – Options market and hedging signals

Summary Takeaways

• Market sentiment dramatically reversed on Fed commentary; strong probability of a December rate cut is fueling a rebound, though uncertainty and volatility remain high.
• Opportunities cited in tech, communication services, industrials, financials, and select retail, with cyclicals favored over defensives—caution on real estate and materials.
• Technical signals point to a fragile market with short-term correction risk, market breadth concerns, and “uncertainty ceilings” looming.
• Retail sector success is led by value-oriented names; even higher income shoppers are price conscious during economic volatility.
• Bitcoin is under sustained pressure: lacking institutional buyers, experiencing liquidations, and facing broader risk-off moves tied to macro and crypto-specific fears.
• AI and mega-cap tech remain a market engine, but doubts are building around sustainability—Google now seen as outperforming due to scale and financial resources.
• Options markets signal a move from greed to caution, but not outright panic, as the year’s end draws near.

This episode equips listeners to understand the forces behind the market’s major swings, where risk and opportunity lie, and how shifting macro, technical, and sector-specific dynamics are shaping strategies into year-end 2025.