Markets Rebound, Bitcoin Breaks Down & Google's Gains 11/21/25

Summary

The Exchange (CNBC): "Markets Rebound, Bitcoin Breaks Down & Google's Gains"

Date: November 21, 2025
Host: Contessa Brewer (in for Kelly Evans)

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Episode Overview

This episode of The Exchange dives into a dramatic market rebound, with stocks reversing after a significant dip and optimism mounting for a December Fed rate cut. The conversation covers major reversals in equities, sector winners, the mounting pressure on Bitcoin and crypto, and a detailed look at why Alphabet (Google) is outpacing its tech peers on AI. The episode features insights from market strategists, retail analysts, and CNBC’s tech reporters, highlighting volatility, risk sentiment, and where to find opportunities during ongoing uncertainty.

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Key Segments & Insights

1. Fed Policy Shift Sparks Market Rally

[01:36 – 05:15]

• Fed’s December Rate Cut Odds Jump:
  Steve Liesman reports that New York Fed President John Williams alluded to a near-term policy adjustment, swinging market expectations for a December rate cut from 33% to 66%.

  • “Williams dropping a single line about current policy in a speech in Chile where he said, quote: ‘I still see room for a Fed further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate.’” (Steve Liesman, [02:43])
  • Key question: “How many voters on the Fed follow the leader?” (Steve Liesman, [04:08])

• Boston Fed’s Take:
  Susan Collins stresses a cautious and gradual approach:

  • “My baseline says that maintaining mildly restrictive policy is appropriate to ensure that we get that disinflation. … I would absolutely expect to normalize further … cautiously, gradually is appropriate.” (Susan Collins, [03:30])

• Data Headwinds:
  Liesman notes the Fed may make its next decision without key data, increasing uncertainty and potential for dissent:

  • “They don’t have a lot of the main data points. … Fed’s going to meet, make a decision. … I think there’s going to be 3, 4 dissents whichever way.” (Steve Liesman, [04:38])

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2. Investment Outlook: Where to Find Opportunities

Guest: John Stolfas, Chief Investment Strategist, Oppenheimer
[05:15 – 10:03]

• Resilience = Buying Opportunity:

  • Stolfas sees economic dips as buying chances, emphasizing “babies thrown out with the bathwater.”
  • “We continue to like infotech, communication services. We like industrials, we like financials, and yes, we do like consumer discretionary.” (John Stolfas, [05:58])
  • Cyclical sectors are preferred over defensives; volatility is part of the story.
  • Predicts a 25 basis point cut in December:
    • “We can't help but think this will let people know … the Fed is in the process of ending the Fed funds hike cycle that started in March of 2022.” (John Stolfas, [07:01])

• Caution Areas:

  • Real estate and materials not favored; utilities gaining appeal as rate cuts make their yields more attractive.

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3. Technical Outlook: Signals to Watch

Guest: Jessica Inskip, Director of Investor Research, Stockbrokers.com
[10:03 – 15:12]

• Bullish but “At Risk” Trading Cycle:
  • Watching key moving averages (13, 26, 40-week), with the 13-week now breached, turning from support to resistance.
  • “The 13 week is that first line of defense … we’ve actually breached that and now that has become resistance … 6650 is a moving target.” (Jessica Inskip, [10:42])
• Short-Term vs Structural Moves:
  • A break signals likelihood of a short-term correction (next support at 6400).
  • Market could become “range bound” without a broader rally.
  • “If we do not get any Fed rate cuts … we have a volatility spike and then we start testing all these levels.” (Jessica Inskip, [14:16])

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4. Retail Recap: Value Retailers Win the Day

Guest: Melissa Repko, CNBC.com Retail Reporter
[17:15 – 19:46]

• “Value” is Back:

  • Highlights Walmart and TJX outperforming, noting value attracts all income brackets during uncertainty.
  • “Retailers are winning wallet share regardless of income level.” (Melissa Repko, [17:46])

• Old Navy Success, Target Struggles:

  • Old Navy’s strong performance due to value reputation means less discounting is needed.
  • Target faces inventory and staffing problems, contributing to flat sales.

• Walmart Rivals Amazon in E-commerce:

  • 28% US e-commerce growth for Walmart, with strong gains in general merchandise categories.

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5. Morgan Stanley’s Bullish Double Upgrade on Retail

Guest: Alex Drayton, Morgan Stanley
[20:14 – 24:49]

• Early Cycle Thesis:
  • MS sees “Liberation Day” as ending a multi-year recession, entering an “early-cycle environment,” favoring consumer discretionary.
  • “They double upgraded consumer discretionary goods to overweight … certainly a meaningful change in view.” (Alex Drayton, [20:21])
• Stock Picks:
  • Favors Gap, Macy’s, and Urban Outfitters (early cycle winners with positive revision paths, low valuations, and improving trends).
• Quote:
  • “If you want to play early cycle, you'd also take a basket approach to department stores and specialty retailers.” (Alex Drayton, [24:27])

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6. Crypto Downturn: Bitcoin’s Troubles

Guest: Mackenzie Sagalos
[40:31 – 42:28]

• Bitcoin Tests Critical $80,000 Level:
  • $2B in liquidations, “fear and greed” index at lowest since 2022, and major outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
  • “At this point we’re only down around 30% from last month’s all-time high for bitcoin. But the worry here is fading momentum.” (Mackenzie Sagalos, [41:35])
• Institutions Not Buying the Dip:
  • Larger wallets selling; dormant coins moving—signs of big players losing conviction.
• Macro Backdrop:
  • Doubts about a December Fed cut and a higher correlation with AI stocks are adding pressure.

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7. Risk Sentiment & Options Market: Time for Caution?

Guest: Dirk Wheeler, Citi Research; Chris Murphy, Susquehanna
[30:39 – 47:28]

• Santa Rally Under Threat:

  • “The whole world bought into the Santa Claus rally … odds to lose money Nov/Dec are quite low.” (Dirk Wheeler, [30:41])
  • Nvidia’s strong earnings failed to prop up markets; bubble doubts rise, especially over AI order quality and OpenAI’s private status.

• AI Bubble or Bull Market?

  • “When you enter bubble territory, you are not supposed to get bearish, you’re supposed to be bullish. ... The difference is that it usually ends badly if you’re in a bubble...” (Dirk Wheeler, [33:54])
  • Google seen as better positioned than OpenAI, thanks to profitability and reach.

• Options Market Signals Hedging, Not Panic:

  • “High put volumes and more aggressive demand for downside suggest caution, but it doesn’t seem like panic mode.” (Chris Murphy, [46:49])
  • Big move: Bearish collar on the Bitcoin ETF, indicating continued downside bets in crypto.

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8. Alphabet’s AI Surge and Industry Impact

Tech Segment with Deirdre Bosa
[37:12 – 40:08]

• Google Takes AI Lead:
  • Sam Altman tells OpenAI staff to prepare for “rough vibes” as Google's Gemini 3 wins industry accolades.
  • Google’s “full stack” advantage: “distribution, ecosystem, chips, models, products.”
  • “They released [Gemini 3] across the [Google] ecosystem…potentially billions of users who aren’t even necessarily looking for a chatbot.” (Deirdre Bosa, [38:49])
  • Google’s financial strength gives it an edge over OpenAI and other rivals in an AI downturn.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Babies that get thrown out with the bathwater, those really great stocks that…get thrown down like hot potatoes onto the floor by the traders.” (John Stolfas, [05:59])
• "We're building an AI bubble and the Fed is cutting into it. So that is extremely bullish." (Dirk Wheeler, [31:10])
• “The market is doubting a little bit the quality of some of the order numbers that are floating around.” (Dirk Wheeler, [32:09])
• “The difference between a bubble and a normal bull market though is that it usually ends badly if you’re in a bubble and you give back most of these gains eventually.” (Dirk Wheeler, [33:54])
• “I call it the ceiling of uncertainty because it’s when the first tariff was actually introduced and until we overcame and got tariff clarity, we did not overcome that ceiling.” (Jessica Inskip, [14:16])
• “My baseline says that maintaining mildly restrictive policy is appropriate to ensure that we get that disinflation.” (Susan Collins, [03:30])
• "[On Google] They have the distribution…the power of the best model out there right now…so even your mom…might be using Gemini 3 and thinking this is the best one." (Deirdre Bosa, [38:49])

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Timestamps of Important Segments

• 01:36 – Market Recap, Fed policy news introduction
• 02:38 – Steve Liesman on Fed rate cut odds
• 05:15 – John Stolfas’s sector recommendations
• 10:03 – Jessica Inskip’s technical breakdown
• 17:15 – Retail earnings and “value” theme
• 20:14 – Morgan Stanley’s bullish outlook & stock picks
• 30:39 – Dirk Wheeler on risk and “Santa” rally
• 37:12 – Alphabet AI surge & tech rivalry
• 40:31 – Bitcoin’s downturn explained
• 43:28 – Options market and hedging signals

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Summary Takeaways

• Market sentiment dramatically reversed on Fed commentary; strong probability of a December rate cut is fueling a rebound, though uncertainty and volatility remain high.
• Opportunities cited in tech, communication services, industrials, financials, and select retail, with cyclicals favored over defensives—caution on real estate and materials.
• Technical signals point to a fragile market with short-term correction risk, market breadth concerns, and “uncertainty ceilings” looming.
• Retail sector success is led by value-oriented names; even higher income shoppers are price conscious during economic volatility.
• Bitcoin is under sustained pressure: lacking institutional buyers, experiencing liquidations, and facing broader risk-off moves tied to macro and crypto-specific fears.
• AI and mega-cap tech remain a market engine, but doubts are building around sustainability—Google now seen as outperforming due to scale and financial resources.
• Options markets signal a move from greed to caution, but not outright panic, as the year’s end draws near.

This episode equips listeners to understand the forces behind the market’s major swings, where risk and opportunity lie, and how shifting macro, technical, and sector-specific dynamics are shaping strategies into year-end 2025.

Transcript

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[Alex Drayton]

You're listening to the Exchange.

[Jessica Inskip]

Here's today's show.

[Contessa Brewer]

Frank, thank you. Welcome to the Exchange on this Friday. I'm Contessa Brewer in for Kelly Evans today following the biggest intraday reversal since April. Stocks surging back today as the odds for a December rate cut climb. Now tech not the leader. The Dow is taking the reins. Home improvement trade is seeing the biggest gains. All three major averages on track now to close lower for the week though the Mag 7 is lower for the week with one exception. Alphabet. It's up again today and it's a recent AIO momentum reportedly getting to Sam Altman and the open air team will have those details coming up here. And Bitcoin under pressure once again. Briefly touching 80,000 right now it's 84788 on track for its worst week in three years negative for the year. This would be only the third negative year since 2015 though. We begin with the Fed. And from one Fed official in particular that seemed to have turned market sentiment around. Steve Liesman kicks us off with the very latest. Steve? Hi.

[Steve Liesman]

Hey, Contessa. Yeah. The influential New York Fed President John Williams coming off the fence on the issue of those December rate cuts and dramatically swinging the odds in favor of the Federal Reserve cutting. Williams dropping a single line about current policy in a speech in Chile where he said, quote, I still see room for a Fed further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate. To move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral near term is what everybody got excited about. Those December rate cut probability jumping to 66% from 33 January remaining odds on favor, but a little bit higher, 80% for that same single cut. Their probability swung so low because of a torrent of hawkish Fed speak from voters and non voters who expressed reluctance about a December cut. And that talk continued today when I sat down with Boston Fed President Susan Collins.

[Contessa Brewer]

My baseline says that maintaining mildly restrictive policy is appropriate to ensure that we get that disinflation.

[Alex Drayton]

And then over time I would absolutely expect to normalize further.

[Contessa Brewer]

But I think doing so cautiously, gradually is appropriate.

[Steve Liesman]

Now Krishna Guha, he works at Evercore isi, follows the Fed there, worked also for Williams for a couple of years, suggested Williams comments would have come with a quote, sign off from Fed Chair Jay Powell called Williams remark a leadership steer at a divided Fed. And now the question, Contessa, is how many voters on the Fed follow the leader?

[Contessa Brewer]

Well, that's a great question. Also, what data do they even have to work with ahead of the next month's meeting and what won't they have? All right, we've got a frozen Steve Leisman, but you know this issue of the data and what, what comes in, what they have to work with, are they going to have CPI or not? And it looks unlikely at this point, Steve, we were just talking about the data and what they have to work with and what they don't.

[Steve Liesman]

Yeah, if I'm unfrozen now, I can answer the question, but I can't control whether. Here's the thing, they don't have a lot of the main data points. They have retail sales data point, they have a joke data point. The big data comes after the meeting. We have a full screen that comes afterwards. You're going to get the CPI and the November jobs report which will include some data from October So the Fed's going to meet, make a decision. I suppose they can have an emergency meeting if they feel like they're on the wrong side. But right now I think there's going to be 3, 4 dissents in whichever way the Fed decides come this December.

[Contessa Brewer]

All right, Steve Liesman, frozen or unfrozen, it's great either way. When you're frozen, you know what we just say, let it go. I would sing it, but then the lawyers call and there's, you know, trademark issues, blah, blah. My next guest says the economy remains resilient and any pullbacks are actually buying opportunities for mid to long term investors. John Stolfas, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer is joining me now. Okay, so where are you looking for the opportunities amid all this bubble talk and excuse me, but the roller coaster that is the market right now.

[John Stolfas]

Well, great to be on the show with you today contest especially really where the Fed has been so kind to us. You know, great to hear from the New York Fed for the Boston Fed today and see the market rally the way it is. We think, you know, where we stand right now. It really is opportunity not so much to buy the dips wildly, but rather to focus on the babies that get thrown out with the bathwater, those really great stocks that for the moment get thrown down like hot potatoes onto the floor by the traders, the short term aggressive investors on any excuse to sell without FOMO in a market, in a bull market that continues to appear to be very much intact. So we continue to like infotech communication services. We like industrials, we like financials. And yes, we do like consumer discretionary. We have been for a long time recommend cyclicals over defensives. That's worked out now for years as well as for this year itself. We think volatility part of the story. The big issue is it will the Fed indeed cut in December? We think it does. 25 basis points. We call it another down payment by Jerome Powell to let both Wall street and Main street know that that indeed the Fed is in the process of ending the Fed funds hike cycle that started in March of 2022. So far, what do we have? We have three cuts from last year, two cuts so far done this year with one more likely to go. We can't help but think that this will in effect just let people know that it may not be lowering rates as fast as many in the market want, particularly leveraged players and leveraged players on Main street, whether it's real estate or people just looking for lower mortgage rates but we think overall the resilience in corporate earnings is replicated as shown by The S&P 500 thus far remarkably good. A powerful with a domination of earnings growers versus I think just one or two negative earnings growers among the sectors among the 11 sectors. And they're to be expected with energy based on the fact that we're awash oil around the world. But the rest is very good, you know. And so we think stocks have time to move up and heel from the wobble that it had over the course of the last 10 days.

[Contessa Brewer]

You mentioned Consumer Discretionary. In all of the focus on whether the Fed is going to cut or not cut. What gets lost is how that affects how consumers see the economy. The University of Michigan just out with its consumer sentiment index which basically was in line with expectations and they saw a little bit of a pop just itty bitty post government shutdown when that ended. If you like all these sectors, info, tech, communication services, industrials, financials and consumer discretionary. What's there left not to like?

[John Stolfas]

Well you know I think for example, you know we're not hot on real estate at this point. We think that's that's more a granular story where you want to look at the individual and of properties. We would also think that related to materials not quite yet. It's beginning to warm up and gain some favor. I think earlier today it was seeing some favor but we do think some that have been in the shadows sort of for a while here. Utilities are looking good. If the Fed is in the process of reducing interest rates that trend should help reduce the typical what they call the bond market proxy of the utilities stocks. When interest rates are high, their yields aren't as attractive typically but this would be much more typical would be much more attractive for their yields. In addition to that the interim to long term story for utilities, especially the regulated utilities of The S&P 500 looks good with prospects for improvement of the grid in the US to provide all that electricity we're going to need.

[Contessa Brewer]

All right, John Sulfas, you're there. Seeing that consumer discretionary is the leader in terms of sectors up more than a percent and a half. Good to see you. My next guest says defense lines were breached in yesterday's whipsaw actions. Warning. There is a new key level to watch in the S and P and if we close below it we could be in for further declines. Let's bring in Jessica Inskip who's the director of investor [e-mail] Jessica what are you looking at in terms of your market signals that would indicate we could be in some danger?

[Jessica Inskip]

Absolutely. And great to see you condescend the trading cycle. Even though it's bullish, it's at risk. So we say it's bullish when the 13 week, the 26 week and the 40 weekly moving averages are sloping upwards and they're acting as support. The 13 week is that first line of defense because it represents one quarter worth of prices despite beating earnings. And that broad based. We've actually breached that and now that has become resistance. Right now that's 6650. It is a moving target. So I want to make sure that the S&P 500 market cap weight closes above 6650. We're so, we're so close today. But consistent closes are extremely important. So meaning I need to watch the 13 weekly moving average on the S&P 500 in order for us to be resume that bullish trading cycle. Otherwise we did see a weekly MACD crossover. We haven't had a weekly MACD crossover, contessa, since December 26th of 2024. That led to the major decline that we had starting in early March to those April lows when we did breach the 13, 26 and 40. But before that there was a pullback. Pullback to the 26 weekly at that time to that ceiling of uncertainty. And then of course Liberation Day is what pulled us further. So that's why it's important is we have a MACD crossover and we've breached the first line of defense.

[Contessa Brewer]

Okay, so when you're talking about these crossovers and your, your break even point, 6600. Right. Okay. Does that indicate to you a short term correction or something more structural?

[Jessica Inskip]

Short term. So technical analysis is very much a if this then that type of statement. So it's constantly shifting and moving and if we add moving averages, those two are moving as well. So the 13 week is at 6650. That is going to adjust. So if that breaks 6650 supported by a MACD crossover, we risk going to the 26 weekly moving average which is around 6400. So it's lines of defense. As those get breached, either they're going to act as support or they're going to turn into resistance.

[Contessa Brewer]

And what does the breach signal from broader market trends?

[Jessica Inskip]

So that's where we'd like to look at the equal weight. This has been less aggressive, but as history has showed us, there is a rhyme or an echo and the Equal weight has been breaching these lines first but they've also really failed to maintain higher highs. Now that to me doesn't mean that we're into a more aggressive fall down, but it does mean that the rally would be rather narrow if these aren't supported or overcome. So support for the equal weight is around 7300. This is important because that's an area that was created in October of last year that acted as resistance for a period of seven months. So we haven't declined below that. But if we did, that's where that if then statement that would be very bad. We would risk a decline much lower. But it would be ever so hard to go above that line because there's so many points where that acted as resistance for seven months. And it's psychology. If you owned stocks at that price, your break even, you might want to get out of it at that point if you're incurring losses. So it's the equal weight is struggling. But that doesn't mean that we're necessarily in for a rally. I see it as more range bound and then using that as a signal to watch the market cap.

[Contessa Brewer]

In your note here you're talking about this being a ceiling of uncertainty. How should investors try to factor this in especially considering we don't know what the Fed is going to do in December and there are all these tariff worries.

[Jessica Inskip]

I completely agree. So the big ceiling of uncertainty and I like to match them up, where's the ceiling uncertainty on the market cap? Where is it on the equal weight? So on the market cap it's actually 6147. I call it the ceiling of uncertainty because it's when the first tariff was actually introduced and until we overcame and got tariff clarity, we did not overcome that ceiling of uncertainty. That's where we can line technical analysis with events because technical analysis is really telling us investor stuff, sentiment, what's the mood of the market? And the market does not like uncertainty. It creates volatility and we see that volatility spikes. If we look at the one day VIX or even the thirty day vix, there's very many volatility products coincide consistently with uncertain uncertainty of some aspect. As of late it's if we do not get any Fed rate cuts or it feels like the Fed is going to be a little more restrictive, we have a volatility spike and then we start testing all these levels.

[Contessa Brewer]

Jessica Inskip, thank you for the great explainer there. Appreciate it. Coming up, the first wave of retail earnings behind us if there's one big takeaway, it's that value does win people's wallets. We'll tell you why we're talking with Morgan Stanley analyst who's turning bullish on the sector as the retail ETF tries to snap a six day losing streak in video shares trying to bounce back after giving up yesterday's early gains. And while Citi says the AI bubble has not popped, they're ready to take some risk off the table. Their head of global macro strategy joins us with the move Citi's making here. The Exchange back right after this.

[John Stolfas]

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[Contessa Brewer]

The first big week of retail earnings in the rearview mirror. Home Depot, Lowe's, Target off to a bit of a rocky start. And then you've got Walmart and slaying down the gauntlet, raising its full year guidance for a second straight quarter. TJX followed suit. And now the theme of the week is value. Retailers are winning wallet share regardless of income level. Joining me to talk more about it, cnbc.com retail reporter Melissa Repko. Why now? Why is value the thing that all consumers, even if you've got lots of money?

[Jessica Inskip]

After the recurring theme that I hear from a ton of different retail CEOs I spoke to like Marvin Allison at Lowe's. He was saying it doesn't matter what your income is. You're reading the same headlines. You're reading about things like the prolonged government shutdown and layoffs. And all those things catch consumers attention regardless of what salary they make. And that makes them think a little bit about how they're spending their dollars and how much they should be scrimping too.

[Contessa Brewer]

Well, the interesting thing and I we sit close to each other in the newsroom. So I heard you talking about Old Navy and what stellar performance Old Navy had for Gap. And and even though they come in at lower prices, they are not having to put their stuff on discount. Why not?

[Jessica Inskip]

Well, they are sharper if you compare them to a lot of other players in the field and they are known for value. When you think about the reputation of retailers, Walmart and TJ Maxx and Old Navy, they're the companies that come to mind when people say I'm looking for a deal, I'm looking for a strong price point. And so those are the players that are really winning so far.

[Contessa Brewer]

Who's losing? And for instance, there was a mixed report from Target. Yes. Why is Target struggling so much?

[Jessica Inskip]

Target has a lot of its own self inflicted problems when you think about even retail fundamentals. If you go into a lot of stores, the thing I from so many shoppers is that they're noticing out of stocks, they're noticing short staffing, long checkout lines. Those basic things are things that frustrate people especially during a busy time of year and that's been really plaguing them for the past four years where they've had roughly flat annual sales.

[Contessa Brewer]

The other interesting thing when we're looking at Wal Mart and its stellar performance is the way that it's been able to come back and give Amazon a run for its money in the E commerce sector.

[Jessica Inskip]

That is really one of the big stories. They put up 28% growth in their e commerce business for the US and for some categories in their marketplace they're seeing north of 40% gains. Automotive, toys, apparel. And so those general merchandise categories tend to be higher margin, which means they can offer really compelling deals with milk and eggs and things like that that draw people into their stores and find that balance.

[Contessa Brewer]

Melissa, it's great story. Thank you so much. And you can read the full thing on cnbc.com the full story. I don't mean to call it a thing. Thank you, Melissa. Morgan Stanley is turning more optimistic on these retail stocks. The Firm issued a rare double upgrade on the consumer discretionary sector on goods and it says that softline retail will be the next winners. Joining me with her stock shopping list on the sector is Morgan Stanley's Alex Straighten. Alex, nice to see you today.

[Alex Drayton]

Good to see you too. Thanks for having me.

[Contessa Brewer]

Give me a sense of what drove the double upgrade. What were you looking at?

[Alex Drayton]

Yes, I want to be clear here. This came as a part of our U.S. equity Strategy Team's 2026 outlook. They issued a pretty bullish forward look with above consensus EPS on the total market. And a part of their call was we're moving to an early cycle environment. And that's where as you called out, they double upgraded consumer discretionary goods to overweight super rare. I think what really matters for me here is that they've been underweight this sector for the better part of the last three to four. So this is certainly a meaningful change in view from them. But to put it in a nutshell for you, they think that Liberation Day represented this key capitulation moment marking the end of a three year rolling recession and that many key ingredients of an early cycle environment are now evidence that matters to me because soft line stocks are typically early cycle winners.

[Contessa Brewer]

Okay, so basically what your team laid out is that there's compressed cost structures that have enabled some operating leverage, that there's a rebound in earnings revision. Brett. And that there's been pent up demand across constrained sectors. In this consumer discretionary goods sector that you, you look at. Where do you see pent up demand? And especially this would be important ahead of Black Friday, this all important holiday shopping season. Where might you see companies benefiting from that demand?

[Alex Drayton]

It's a great call out in your. You're talking about the three key items that they're seeing on of an early cycle type of environment. And one is that that compressed cost structure we saw a Covid related reduction that's now starting to potentially enable margin expansion. We have gross margins that were sitting at highs entering this year. Rebound in earnings revisions. And then of course this pent up demand dynamic. I think what we're most clearly seeing that aligns with our US Equity strategy team is this concept of a rebound in earnings revisions. To put some numbers on it, like 2Q and 3Q were beaten raised quarters in my space. 90% of my companies so far have surpassed expectations. 80% have have raised GUID. And so especially when you think about this kind of negative sentiment that's plaguing the group, it makes for a really nice entry point. And that's exactly what our equity strategists are hitting on. So for me, there's not so much of this reversion type of theme that you see in other goods categories like hard lines, for example, that had a multi year give back post Covid for me, in apparel and footwear, there's not so much of this reversion story or pent up demand that's necessarily happening. We have a relatively tempered holiday outlook. I think there's many more tailwinds or headwinds that we can identify over the tailwinds. But we do think that there's a possibility that the holiday comes in better than feared on negative sentiment.

[Contessa Brewer]

We're showing right now some of your favorites. The stocks that you highlight. Gap, which had an amazing report, it's up 8% right now. Macy's is up 5 and a half percent and Urban Outfitters up 4%. What about these in particular are part of your strategy, part of your thought process around consumer discretionary goods?

[Alex Drayton]

Sure. So as I mentioned, soft line stocks, they're early cycle winners and particularly the lowest quality end of our sector. So that's department stores and specialty retailers. They do better in early cycle than say something like off pricers and brands who typically are viewed as more defensive. They do better in recession. So there's a less steep peaked a trough for them compared to these department stores and specialty retailers. So for me, in the context of knowing that these lower quality subsectors tend to do better in early cycle, the ones that we liked best or felt more comfortable kind of recommending people revisit our gap in urban where we're overweight and then Macy's where we're equal weight. And there's really three things that these stocks have in common. We see a potentially positive revision path for them into 2026. We see relatively undemanding valuation compared to peers, compared to coverage compared to industry and historical average. And then lastly, they all three have some narrative going on that's either an ongoing compelling rate of change story if you're Macy's urban Athleta, or a consistent execution story. So free people, anthro, Old Navy, etc. So those are what those three have in common. But really, if you take a step back, if you want to play early cycle, you'd also take a basket approach to department stores and specialty retailers.

[Contessa Brewer]

Alex Drayton, it's great to talk to you. Thank you so much.

[Alex Drayton]

Thanks for having me.

[Contessa Brewer]

Coming up, Bitcoin is holding below 90,000. It's touched its lowest level since early April as fears of a crypto winter set in, we'll take a look at what's behind the decline. Right now, bitcoin's off by more than 3%. What would it take to turn that around? Take a look at some of the names hitting all time highs today. You've got insurance giant Traveler up more than a percent, Lowe's up almost 2%, Johnson and Johnson a percent and a third Rollins and TJX. TJX up by 10. 2.25%. We'll have more of today's big movers on the other side of this break.

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[Contessa Brewer]

Welcome back to the exchange markets. Right now it looks like you've got the Dow Industrials up more than a percent S&P 500 almost 2% higher and the NASDAQ composite up half a percent. The yield on the 10 year treasuries moving lower. It's 4.069% right now. And here are some of the movers we're watching this hour. Eli Lilly is becoming the next trillion dollar company. It's the first health care company in the world to join this club dominated by the big tech giants. That stock is up a percent and a half right now, but it has climbed 36% this year on the popularity of its weight loss drug Zepbound and its diabetes treatment Mounjaro. And the homebuilders are gaining today as odds for a December Rate cut climb and yields fall. The home construction ETF ITB is on pace for its best day since August, led by shares of Hovinanian, LGI Homes and KB Homes. You've got Hovannian up 11 and a half percent right now. That iShares is up 5%, LGI Homes up 10% and the consumer trade higher today with hotels, cruises and gaming stocks all in the green. I'm going to highlight some of them here. Wyndham is up four and a half percent, Hyatt following suit. MGM Resorts, Royal Caribbean, I've just checked Caesars is up 6% right now and you've got DraftKings up almost 4%. We're seeing this across a slew of travel, leisure and gaming space. The latest reading of consumer sentiment shows the outlook for economic conditions, while still low, did improve after the government shutdown ended and inflation readings also improved. The biggest winner in this group is the Wyndham Hyatt, MGM and Royal Caribbean. Get to Bertha Coombs now for a CNBC news update. Hi Bertha.

[Deirdre Bosa]

Hi.

[Contessa Brewer]

Contessa House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan is reportedly asking major US Banks to hand over communications and other materials related to former special counsel Jack Smith's election interference probe of President Trump. According to Politico, which reports that bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley are among dozens of financial incidents institutions that received letters from the committee. No comment yet from any of the banks. Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell is entering the race for California governor. Swalwell announced the run on Jimmy Kimmel Live last night. He joined several Democrats in a crowded field. Current Governor Gavin Newsom is term limited and Grammy winning rapper Perus Michelle of the fugees sentenced to 14 years in prison. He was convicted of illegally funneling millions in foreign contributions to President Obama's 2012 re election campaign. The rapper has vowed to appeal. Contessa Bertha, thank you for that. Coming up, after Nvidia was unable to reignite animal spirits in what has been a rocky market, Citi says the risk reward for stocks has officially deteriorated. We're going to talk to the company's head of global strategy about how it's reallocating positions into year end. Well, this is a lot more fun today covering the stock market because the shares are rebounding. We saw yesterday's major market reversal as bets of a December rate cut jump back up. I mean it was 39% yesterday. CNBC.com has it as fed funds rate saying 70% chance of a rate cut in December. That is pretty significant. About face. Even with today's gains, the bull's inability to take charge has my next guest cutting his tactical equity risk. He says the risk reward in the market is deteriorating. Dirk Wheeler is the head of Global Macro Strategy and Asset Allocation at Citi Research. Dirk, great to have you here today. Give me a sense how you put these wild reversals into some perspective to come up with a strategy about your position.

[Dirk Wheeler]

Yeah, no, I think what happened was that the whole world bought into the Santa Claus rally, really. Right. Which is, by the way, super reliable usually. So the odds to lose money November, December, especially when the S and P had a strong year, already is quite low. And that really drove positioning stronger and higher into year end. And there were two fundamental underpinnings, of course. There was the enthusiasm and there was the Fed. And in particular, the Fed story, I think was. Was a very important reason to be long because essentially the story was, listen, we're building an AI bubble and the Fed is cutting into it. So that is extremely bullish. And then I think what happened yesterday was really that over the last weeks is that the market got nervous on whether we would really get this Fed cut in December. And secondly, people got nervous on the story. And there are very nuances to that. And we can go into that, of course, and then.

[Alex Drayton]

But.

[Dirk Wheeler]

But no one gave up on Santa Claus before Nvidia. Right. And so Nvidia came with a very strong quarter. I mean, our analyst raised his target and so forth, and the market couldn't hold. And I think that led to some liquidation yesterday because Nvidia was meant to be the last data point that keeps.

[Contessa Brewer]

People in the story, which is confusing and baffling to me. And it always is when I cover earnings and you see a great earnings report and then the stock tanks. And I'm thinking, what more did you want? But maybe more is more. You know, it doesn't matter if you're going to increase your expectations by 60%. No, no, no. We wanted it to be 80% or 100% or 1,000%. The sky's the limit.

[Dirk Wheeler]

I think part of the problem was really that the market is doubting a little bit the quality of some of the order numbers that are floating around. Right. And a lot of stress. I think that the start of the derailing of some of the AI names came really when people start to question OpenAI and whether a company with really a very small revenue base can really put 1.4 trillion of orders into the market. And that's the extremely ambitious, of course. And so I think that is what, what caused the beginning of this downgrading expectations. And then, you know, do you believe the numbers that you hear is the question to ask.

[Contessa Brewer]

And then we got those comments from New York Fed President John Williams suggesting that no, a rate cut is still on the table in December. And then you see how the market reacts here. What's your expectation?

[Dirk Wheeler]

Yeah, so Citi still has a rate cut for December and for January. And before Williams it was a, it was dicey. I mean, I think the market had it right to, to be careful on that call just because the, you know, we don't get the data. The Fed really would like to see to, to make that assessment whether another cut is necessary or not. But I think even if you wouldn't get this cut, we still would have expected it to be a dovish pause in the sense that the Fed would probably have said, listen, the V8 for a few more data points. But then we could always cut in January if the data really is weak and our economists make the case that the job data will remain weak going into, I guess then the January rate.

[Contessa Brewer]

Meeting really, when you're looking at the potential for AI and big tech to be a bubble, are you looking at historical comparisons to try and analyze that? How are you trying to weave your way through whether this is or is not a bubble?

[Dirk Wheeler]

No, exactly. I mean, that's really the key question because the bubble word gets used extremely loosely, I would say. Right. And it's very important to have some structure around that. And so we use a definition that we have used for quite some time, which is if something goes up by more than two standard deviations against the long term trend in real terms, it's a bubble. And the interesting part of that is when you enter bubble territory, you are not supposed to get bearish, you're supposed to be bullish. But the difference, because they can last quite some time. The difference between a bubble and a normal bull market though is that it usually ends badly if you're in a bubble and you give back most of these gains eventually. So for us that means we are not calling for the end of the bubble. We're just saying you have to always have some hedges on as well, because eventually this, the bubble will turn well.

[Contessa Brewer]

And then you have one of the biggest players in the space is OpenAI, which is not publicly traded. There's not a stock that's moving on it. So then how do you factor that in?

[Dirk Wheeler]

Yeah, that is the biggest complication to make the comparison to 2000. And, but, but Investors are lucky in a sense because you can get a sense of how open is trading by looking at SoftBank. SoftBank has of course invested a large amount in OpenAI. They went around 11% and we did the math and we stripped out all the other holdings that they have to the extent we could. Some things we don't know, but they think smaller. And you find that the SoftBank price moves very, very closely with our estimate of the value of OpenAI. And so if you want to know, how does this private company at the heart of this whole AI debate really trade? How is the market assessing its prospects? You, you really can look at the SoftBank equity price and, and that of course has not been trading overly well.

[Contessa Brewer]

Is anything about what's happening today, what the optimism that we're seeing in the market today, changing your thought process about repositioning risk?

[Dirk Wheeler]

I think the story has not changed. What has changed today is that we got this Williams comment and so the market has repriced the Fed and of course that's actually in line with the city's call for, for a Fed cut. But then you might still prefer to own different type of stocks, right? I mean then it's more what interest rate sensitive stocks, they benefit more if the story is still a little bit on the back foot.

[Contessa Brewer]

Dirk, it's great to have you here. Thank you so much for sharing your insight.

[Dirk Wheeler]

Thank you very much.

[Contessa Brewer]

Coming up, Alphabet has gone from laggard to leader when it comes to AI. Not only is it the only Magic 7 name higher this week up nearly 8%, but the latest, latest version of Google's Gemini has open a Sam Altman telling employees he expects rough vibes for a bit. His company is trying to play catch up. How Google's managing to pull ahead, that's next. And a reminder, you can get the most out of CNBC by checking out CNBC Pro. You'll get exclusive analysis, real time data, deep dive reporting. Head to cnbc.compro for a special limited time opportunity. Do not miss that. We'll be right back. Welcome back. Alphabet is the only Mag7 stock positive on the week and its renewed AI momentum is worrying one of Google's biggest AI rivals. According to new reporting, Deirdre Bosa has more in today's tech check. Tell us all about it.

[Deirdre Bosa]

This is a good one, Contessa. So according to a memo obtained by the Information, Sam Altman told his employees that he had expects, quote, the vibes to be rough out there for a bit as Google's recent progress could create some Temporary economic headwinds for them. Now that line, temporary economic headwinds, it gets at this emerging narrative in the air race, hype versus hard economics. And Google's numbers, they are first in class. Gross margin of 32%. Cash reserves $112 billion. Free cash flow over the last quarter, $24 billion. Now open air, on the other hand, isn't even profitable. It's burning cash fast and it has to raise again and again just to keep pace with a company that can fund its entire AI strategy out of search profits. Put another way, if I need to, Google can weather a downturn. But the bubble bursting or even maybe deflating could be existential for Altman and OpenAI. So when you hear Google's leaders contestants start talking about a bubble this week like we have from Senator Pichai and Demis Hassabis, you got to wonder who that really hurts and who it could help. But a very interesting change in dynamic over the last few months and the.

[Contessa Brewer]

Other interesting thing, and we had briefly touched on this yesterday Dee, when we were talking, is that Google has a lot of experience in consumer facing products. And so the idea that you would be able to use your AI in a way that is accessible to people, whether they're small business owners or factory workers or entrepreneurs or just, you know, my mom, that they would be able to give those products in a way that's accessible.

[Deirdre Bosa]

You're hitting really the core of the bulk thesis around Google right now. And that is the full stack. It has the distribution, the ecosystem, the chips, the models, the products. I mean Even with the Gemini 3 release this week, they didn't just release it to subscribers or to people who are looking for a chat bots, they released it across the that's AI mode. So that's potentially billions of users who aren't even necessarily looking for a chatbot. They're getting the power of the best model out there right now. So even your mom who's Maybe using a ChatGPT, a Gemini, I don't know if she's using a number of them. I told my mom that she has to. She might be using Gemini 3 and thinking this is the best one. And then that may be sticky because she's using Google or she's trained on Google, so certainly flexing that. And it's funny to go back to Contessa, you know, Satya Nadella's comments from not all that long ago saying that he wanted to make Google dance. They're dancing and I think they're having fun doing it.

[Contessa Brewer]

So fun Little fun fact here. I went onto Gemini after we talked about Nano Banana yesterday and asked, can I use Nano Banana right now? And it told me that you can't actually eat nanobanana, that it's not a fruit, its own product. So I said, no, that's not it. Yeah. Okay, let's try again, Deirdre.

[Deirdre Bosa]

All right. There's some, there's some work to do.

[Contessa Brewer]

Thank you. Coming up, bitcoin hit its lowest price since April this week. That's pressuring names like coinbase strategy and bit and wine immersion tech. Those shares down 24%. Look at that. What will it take for crypto to regain its footing? We'll discuss that next. What a difference a day makes here. We're seeing session highs now on the Dow industrials up almost 2% s and P500 up the same. Nasdaq up the same. And you're seeing the yield on the 10 year treasury sinking 4.081% is the yield right now. But we're looking at a down day for crypto as bitcoin hits the lowest level since April. It's now on pace for its worst week in three years. Stands at 84,009 11, down 1.8% today. What's driving the downside move? Mackenzie Sagalos is following bitcoin and the move lower. What's happening here? Hey, Contessa.

[Jessica Inskip]

So bitcoin briefly tested that critical $80,000 support level this morning, dropping to a seven month low before bouncing back. A sign of just how fragile this market has become. $2 billion in liquidations in the last 24 hours and institutions aren't showing signs of buying. The dip Thursday saw the second largest outflows ever from US spot, Bitcoin, ETFs and coin glasses. Fear and Greed index just hit its lowest level since the 2022 meltdown. Now, crypto winners in the past have come during year two of that bitcoin having cycle where we are now roughly and have been associated with drawdowns of 80% or more. At this point we're only down around 30% from last month's all time high for bitcoin. But the worry here is fading momentum. Citi flagged in a note this morning that large wallets are reducing positions and dormant coins are starting to move. A sign of whales losing conviction in the trade. There's also the broader macro backdrop, growing doubt that we'll get a Fed rate cut in December and a rising correlation between crypto and the AI names. Both are getting hit as investors rotate out of Speculative trades and into defensives like gold, the digital asset. Treasury stocks are really taking the brunt of it, especially Strategy, the biggest corporate holder of Bitcoin and and the most liquid proxy for the asset. It has become a pressure valve for hedge funds shorting the space now down more than 43% in a month.

[Contessa Brewer]

Contessa. All right, Mackenzie se gallos, thank you for bringing us up to speed there. Still ahead, stocks shaking off yesterday's wild reversal as hopes rise for a December rate cut. But the Dow is still on pace for its first monthly loss since April while the Nasdaq is set to snap an eight month winning streak. What options are revealing about the market's next move when the exchange is right back. Stocks are rebounding but today's gains not enough to turn things positive for the weekend. My next guest says while yesterday's big reversal could be seen as a healthy correction of October's speculative excess, the options market reflects intense demand for downside hedges markets with SPY put volume surging to its second highest level ever. Joining me to discuss what's happening in options, Chris Murphy, co head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna. It's great to see you today, Chris. Give me a sense of what the options are telling you.

[Steve Liesman]

Sure.

[Contessa Brewer]

I mean just, just as you mentioned, you know we look for a lot of those, you know, highest put volume all time shifting in skew, which just means a lot more demand for downside options than usual. VIX term structure inversion. That's when you obviously looking at the VIX and see how that shot up compared to the rest of the VIX curve. We often look to those as capitulation indicators that all the kind of bad news is being priced in in the here and the now. And we saw a lot of those elements yesterday. So those metrics may look scary but a lot of times we think of those as contraindicators because all the bad news is being priced into the options.

Market and some of these frothy names have really been squeezed. You've got Robinhood Palantir Coin sinking more than 7%. Bitcoin down about 10% just over 10 days. How do you read that?

Well, you know we're watching the options trading for a turnaround there unfortunately in bitcoin today I bet the Bitcoin ETF by far the most notable trade was a bearish collar where they bought 100,000 December 43 puts. So looking for more downside there versus selling the 53 calls comfortable with less of a chance for a rebound. So you know, we're always going to be looking for the options. We're not seeing a ton of bullish flow there. We are seeing unwinding of hedges in other speculative areas like the Ark complex. And, you know, in something like software that's been hit hard, we're seeing investors closing their puts there, but not so much in the Bitcoin ETF right now.

We have a nose alert right now. Chris, stay with me here on Nvidia. The stock is at session highs on reports that U.S. officials are having early discussions about letting Nvidia sell its H200AI chips to China. That is a move that would mark a major win for Nvidia. You heard a lot of analysts and even Jensen Huang on the earnings call talking about optimistic expectations for next year even without China. If suddenly the White House were to reserve, reverse itself and allow these chips to be sold to China. That could really boost Nvidia's bottom line. And there you're seeing the stock reacting now, up a full percent. Chris, back to you. These AI plays have been sort of the theme that is driving all the other market action. Is that true for puts and calls as well?

Yeah. You know, it's interesting you bring up Nvidia. We're talk, of course, we're talking about Nvidia every day, but, but, you know, we've been talking about since the earnings yesterday and since the reversal, similarly in the options. Usually you see a lot of FOMO in the Nvidia options, a lot of bid to the upside options, less people reaching for downside protection. That's kind of flipped a little bit since yesterday's reversal. And over the course of the last week, we're seeing more demand for downside, less demand for upside, you know, and that's why, you know, something like the news you just mentioned is a little bit of a surprise and that could change things. We'll have to check out out, you know, how the Nvidia options react to that breaking news.

If you're looking at an aggressive demand for hedges and some poor liquidity that might indicate some caution, then do you see this as sort of a fundamental breakdown or is it something that is maybe just more sentiment driven?

You know, I don't personally, you know, I think that, you know, kind of, as you mentioned at the very beginning, what was really probably mispriced was a month ago when the most short baskets were outperforming the S and p by about 25%. You know, people are still up on the year. The S and P is up 11 or 12% on the year Things are getting a little shaky into year end so it makes sense to start seeing an increase in hedging, you know, 5% peak to trough pullback for the S and P. Given everything that was going on in October, froth wise seems pretty standard to me. Of course we're seeing more protection right now, but it doesn't seem like panic mode.

Chris Murphy of Susquehanna, thank you so much for joining us today. Again, you've got all the indices at session highs right now. Brian will have more for you on that ahead on powerlunch. Thank you for watching the Exchange. We head to Power Lunch right now.

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