The Exchange – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Memory Momentum, Tech Trade Fade, and Lowe's "Influencer" Era
Host: Kelly Evans (CNBC)
Date: January 22, 2026

Episode Overview

This CNBC The Exchange episode covers the day’s top business and market headlines, with an emphasis on the dramatic run-up in memory chip stocks, the evolving landscape of AI and tech competition, GE Aerospace’s outlook following strong earnings, the impact of weather and speculation on natural gas prices, and Lowe’s initiatives to engage younger consumers in a challenging housing market. In-depth interviews and expert analysis help break down these complex stories.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Snapshot and Memory Momentum

• Major Indices Performance: S&P up strongly; Dow up 500+ points; Russell 2000 extends a 14-day outperformance streak.
• Gold & Commodities: Gold nears all-time highs at $4,900/oz; Silver and other metals also strong. Oil drops below $60/barrel.
• Crypto IPO: BitGo debuts up 23% on its first trading day, even as Bitcoin dips below $90,000.

Shift from Big Tech to Memory Stocks

• Tech’s Changing Guard: The so-called “Mag 7” (biggest tech stocks) have gone flat: Nvidia (+2%), Apple (-5%), Meta/Microsoft (-13%), Amazon (+8%) in last three months.
• Memory/Storage Boom: SanDisk surges +237% in three months; Micron & Western Digital double.
  • Notably, this sector is cyclical, typically moving with computer refresh cycles.
  • Key Insight: Is this cycle different due to AI-driven demand?

2. Deep Dive: Memory Chip Cycle & Shortages

Guest: CJ Muse, Senior Analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald

• Why This Cycle Is Different (03:00)

  • “We’ve been in essentially a seven-year down cycle. No urgency…to add capacity. With incremental growth from AI, I think we’re going to be undersupplied for all of 26 and 27…”
    (CJ Muse, 02:55)
  • SanDisk & Micron earnings potential: Street is modeling $4/earnings for SNDK’s March quarter, but real numbers could hit $10-$12 given tight supply and pricing power.

• Will Shortages Hit Consumers?

  • “PC unit volumes will decline 10% this year and smartphone volumes at least 5%—because there’s not enough chips, not enough memory…at the high end, higher prices; at the low end, de-speccing of memory.”
    (CJ Muse, 04:22)

  • Implications: Supply issues may explain Apple’s underperformance; only companies who secured memory allocations early won’t be constrained this year.

  • “If you didn’t get in line in the last three months, you’re going to have a problem this year.”
    (CJ Muse, 04:54)

• Supply Chain Consequences

  • “Many of my clients are long memory and short the PC supply chain. What I think is less well-known is the pain coming to the handset market…unit volumes will be weaker.”
    (CJ Muse, 05:45)

• Duration of the Shortage

  • New fabs take 2+ years to build. Even with added wafer capacity from Samsung and Hynix, real relief won’t come before 2028. “This is definitely a cycle unlike any other…peak earnings will not be 26, but 27. There’s still upside.”
    (CJ Muse, 06:55)

3. AI Investment: Bubble or Inevitable Battle?

• Brett Taylor, OpenAI Chair (via Squawk Box at Davos, 08:13):
  • “It probably is a bubble…When everyone knows that AI is going to have a huge impact…money is plentiful. You end up with too many competitors at every layer of the stack.”
  • “But I think that’s good. Competition’s good. It ends up with this culling effect where the free market determines who has the best products and the most value…”

Panel: Alex Kantrowitz (Big Technology, CNBC Contributor)

• OpenAI’s Position Amid Rising Competition

  • “I don’t get the obituaries for OpenAI. The company has 800 million weekly active users…One of the leading models…and a proven ability to get ahead of everybody else on product…”
    (Alex Kantrowitz, 09:09)

• Financial Sustainability Concerns

  • Discussed NYT op-ed arguing OpenAI will run out of money versus Google’s deep financial resources.
  • “If they continue to build on their lead and have this product lead…they’re going to figure out a way to make that money…and certainly they have an IPO that’s probably going to come in 2027…”
    (Alex Kantrowitz, 10:16)
  • Recognizes Google’s distribution edge, but notes OpenAI’s strength is reimagining products “from the ground up,” not just tacking AI onto legacy stacks (11:22).

• Broader Implication:

  • OpenAI vs. Google/Microsoft/others is a true “gunslinger” fight (12:12). Billions in market cap are at stake as AI competition accelerates.

4. Crypto Moment: BitGo’s IPO

Guest: Mike Belshee, BitGo CEO

• What is BitGo?

  • “We’re an infrastructure provider. It’s a brand you might not have heard of because we power institutions and brands you have heard of. We start with a highly regulated, highly protected security layer…”
    (Mike Belshee, 13:49)
  • Largest collection of institutional clients; services include custody, trading, and staking.

• Bitcoin and Digital Assets Outlook

  • “Bitcoin deserves full credit for pioneering this space…hasn’t gotten traction as a payment system, but is clearly a great store of value. All the cryptocurrencies are going to continue to see strength over the long arc of time…”
    (Mike Belshee, 14:38)
  • Points to excitement about tokenized assets (Larry Fink, BlackRock: “Every asset, every stock, every bond can be tokenized.”)

• Intersection of Crypto & AI

  • “AI is definitely not going to be touching physical currency. It’s going to be using something like a digital currency…these two worlds absolutely intersect.”
    (Mike Belshee, 15:52)

5. GE Aerospace: Post-Earnings Outlook

Guest: Larry Culp, GE Aerospace CEO (interviewed by Phil LeBeau)

• Financial Results & Demand

  • “We talked about the fourth quarter ending very strongly. Orders were up 74%. Revenue up 20%, operating profit up 14%...It’s all about supply because when you look at those order books, demand is strong.”
    (Larry Culp, 19:33)
  • Full-year 2025 revenue up 21%, EPS up 38%, cash up 24%.

• Short-Term Challenges

  • Stock pulled back on profit-taking after a 60% gain over the past year.
  • Skepticism about margin/free cash flow guidance: “Time will prove out the guide we put out is a realistic guide...”
    (Larry Culp, 20:47)

• Production Capacity & Supplier Constraints

  • Key bottleneck is supply, not demand: “Our priority suppliers were up 40%...that enabled us to improve deliveries of new-make engines by 26%...”
    (Larry Culp, 21:53)

• Defense & Geopolitics

  • In alignment with government objectives to deliver innovations to warfighters amid scrutiny over defense contractor practices.
    (22:46)

• AI Applications in Aerospace

  • “There’s no question AI is going to help us be better at design, manufacturing, selling, and supporting the 80,000 engines we have in the field today…”
    (Larry Culp, 24:07)

6. Natural Gas Price Squeeze

Reporter: Pippa Stevens

• Extreme Price Volatility
  • Nat gas jumps 60% in the week ahead of an Arctic blast—the best week on record (28:05).
  • Main drivers:
    • High short interest covering as weather forecasts shifted
    • Surge in demand (heating degree days now 35% above 10-year average)
    • Supply fears due to freeze-offs in Appalachian Basin
• Stock Market Relevance: Most unhedged gas producers (like EQT, Range Resources) may benefit most, but supply disruptions can offset trading gains.

7. Small Cap Rally – Optimism or Over-Speculation?

Guest: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research

• Skepticism on the Russell 2000 Rally

  • “There is not a junkier index out there than the Russell 2000…Companies that make no money or lose money, their stocks in aggregate have outperformed companies that make money by 2000 basis points…This is what the stock market’s become—speculative and junky.”
    (David Rosenberg, 32:35)

• Interest Rates and Market Mood

  • “I think just what’s happening in the stock market is not about interest rates, it’s about bullions and incredible investor confidence over the future. We’ve had a massive shift in the innovation curve, but there are still lots of question marks in front of the total addressable market for AI.”
    (David Rosenberg, 34:17)
  • Believes Fed will eventually cut rates, but for now is hawkish and on hold.

• Inflation Outlook

  • “The inflation numbers today were great across the board…valid reasons to believe inflation will be a downside surprise through 2026.”
    (David Rosenberg, 36:13)
  • Shelter disinflation and food price decline haven’t fully worked through to CPIs, suggesting more moderation ahead.

• Memorable Moment

  • On personal AI tool use: “I still have a horse and buggy delivering my milk in the morning. I’m an old curmudgeon and a Luddite.” (39:21)

8. China’s AI Advances and the Open Source Edge

Reporter: Deirdre Bosa

• Key Battleground: Coding Agents

  • Chinese startup Jeep’s open source coding model GLM 4.7 is surging in US and China user base.
  • “Coding agents are becoming commoditized just as chatbots have. And China’s edge here is open source…They’re cheaper to run, easier to customize, harder to be cut off from.”
    (Deirdre Bosa, 41:20)

• Security Considerations

  • Risk depends on whether model is run in-browser (info may go to China) or locally (safe for startups).
  • Notable Development: Jeep built a leading AI model entirely using Huawei chips, signaling hardware advances and resilience to US chip sanctions.

9. Lowe’s “Influencer” Era – Attracting Younger Shoppers

Reporter: Melissa Repko

• Initiatives Target Gen Z & Millennials
  • Free lollipops, Lowe’s Kids Club, and influencer tie-ins aim to draw younger consumers and families, not just established homeowners.
  • “70% of Lowe’s sales come from DIY shoppers—double Home Depot’s share. That makes them more exposed to pullbacks and gives potential upside if DIY rebounds.”
    (Melissa Repko, 45:05)
• Broader Trend: Uptick in furniture/decor spending may signal a resurgent interest in home investments even as housing starts remain slow due to high mortgage rates.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• CJ Muse on Memory Shortages: “If you didn’t get in line in the last three months, you’re going to have a problem this year.” (04:54)
• Brett Taylor (OpenAI Chair): “It probably is a bubble…, but competition’s good. It ends up with this culling effect where the free market determines who has the best products and where the most value is.” (08:13)
• Alex Kantrowitz on OpenAI: “The company only has 800 million weekly active users…a proven ability to get ahead of everybody else on product.” (09:09)
• Larry Culp (GE Aerospace): “It’s more a supply and fulfillment challenge than it is one of demand.” (21:53)
• David Rosenberg on Small Caps: “There is not a junkier index out there than the Russell 2000…” (32:35)
• Deirdre Bosa on China’s AI: “Coding agents are becoming commoditized just as chatbots have. And China’s edge here is open source...” (41:20)
• Melissa Repko on Lowe’s: “70% of its sales come from DIY shoppers. That’s about half at Home Depot.” (45:05)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Memory Momentum & Chip Shortages: 03:00–07:52
• AI Bubble/Competition (OpenAI & Google): 08:13–12:38
• BitGo Interview & Crypto Outlook: 13:08–16:38
• GE Aerospace Earnings & Industry Trends: 19:23–24:38
• Nat Gas Price Spike: 28:05–30:24
• Small Cap/Skepticism (Rosenberg): 32:35–39:41
• China AI/Jeep Coding Agent: 40:14–43:09
• Lowe’s “Influencer” Era: 44:11–47:00

Episode Tone & Style

Balanced, news-driven, and analytically sharp, as is customary for CNBC. The host Kelly Evans navigates between breaking news, technical analyses, and interviews by drawing out actionable insights and timely soundbites, while maintaining an accessible, occasionally playful tone.

Useful For: Anyone looking for a quick yet substantial update on the most pressing business, tech, and market stories—particularly investors, tech-watchers, and industry professionals who want context on the chip cycle, AI rivalry, and consumer trends in home improvement.