Podcast Summary: The Exchange (CNBC)

Episode: Metals on the Move, Tech on Deck and Another Government Shutdown?
Date: January 26, 2026
Host: Kelly Evans

Overview

In this episode, The Exchange unpacks a dramatic trading day driven by soaring metals prices, a tumbling dollar, speculation over Federal Reserve leadership, high-stakes decisions facing U.S. policymakers, looming government shutdown worries, and tech earnings that could set the tone for markets. The program features expert guests, market analysis, and investigative segments, delving into how macro developments are impacting metals, tech, and American policy.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Market Moves: Metals Surge, Dollar Dips, and Fed Speculation

• Gold and Silver Rally: Gold surpassed $5,100/oz for the first time (00:57, 30:44), and silver marked an outsized move, propelling the metals trade into the spotlight.
  • Pippa Stevens: “Gold is surging above 5,000 for the first time ever, silver crossing into the triple digits...Despite gold’s monster gain, firms like Morgan Stanley say the run might not be over.” (30:45)
• Dollar at Lows: The DXY fell below 97, to a four-month low, suggesting possible imminent U.S. Treasury intervention in FX markets, especially concerning dollar-yen (02:12).
• Fed Chair Speculation: Rick Reeder emerges as a betting favorite for the next Fed chair, ousting previous frontrunners Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett (02:12).
  • Steve Liesman: “Only the president knows who he will pick and suggests any surge in the odds of a particular candidate arise mostly on hot air more than actual information.” (02:12–03:50)

Notable Quote

“To say Friday’s rate check was unusual would be a serious understatement, in part because the treasury often doesn’t do so unilaterally.”
— Steve Liesman (02:12)

2. Fed Statement and U.S. Economic Outlook

• Focus on Labor Market Language:
  • Dean Mackey (Point72): “The sentence I’m focused on is whether they take away the sentence saying downside risks to the labor market have risen. If they do take that away, it’s sort of giving an all clear signal… I don’t think they want to do that.” (07:00)
• Sticky Inflation Expected: Mackey predicts inflation stays near 3% for most of the year, limiting Fed’s rate cuts (08:49).
  • Dean Mackey: “That’s why I think it is going to limit how much the Fed cuts rates this year...we are looking for one more rate cut from the Fed in response to that weakness.” (08:49)

Notable Quote

“If [the Fed] stay concerned about labor market weakness, that means rate cuts… If that language goes away, [it's] extremely hawkish.”
— Kelly Evans (07:23)

3. Auction Performance and the Dollar’s Big Picture

• Strong Two-Year Treasury Auction:
  • Rick Santelli: “Today’s your day...a fabulous A-plus auction...Everything about this auction was solid.” (11:00)
• Fiat Currency Concerns: Santelli connects currency devaluation and the metals rally to broader money-printing concerns.
  • Rick Santelli: “Fiat currencies…central banks may have finally stepped a little too far into the pond of over-dramatic monetization.” (12:33)

Memorable Moment

“The dollar is the yen trade. The dollar is the interest rate trade. In Japan what’s going on is a rebellion...Too much printing of currencies...”
— Rick Santelli (12:33)

4. Tech Earnings Preview and Sector Strategies

• Meta’s Potential Capex Pivot:
  • James Chukmuk (Clockwise Capital): “With Meta, we’ve seen this with Zuckerberg...he does have the ability to focus on efficiency and focus on the short term at the expense of the long term…Meta could outperform the group.” (14:01)
• Portfolio Positioning: Chukmuk highlights Google as his top portfolio weight due to underappreciated AI and advertising assets (16:10).
• Commodity Trades Dominant: Clockwise has 30% of its portfolio in silver, bitcoin, and gold (17:03), reflecting heavy conviction in ongoing commodity outperformance.

Notable Quote

“Just to give you a sense of how bullish we are, 30% of our portfolio in our private fund is silver, bitcoin, and gold. 10% each, roughly...all roads, no matter what, lead to inflation.”
— James Chukmuk (17:03, 18:02)

5. Government Shutdown Watch and Political Fallout

• Minneapolis Shooting Response: Eamon Javers covers the federal response and shifting tone after a deadly ICE-involved shooting, with President Trump sending a border official to Minnesota (21:45).
• Shutdown Odds Increase:
  • Brian Gardner (Stifel): “We still have a couple of days to go. It’s not a guarantee that the government is going to shut down, but a partial shutdown does seem to be the base case at this point.” (23:55)
• Potential Impact: SEC would again pause most operations if a partial shutdown occurs (24:53).

Memorable Moment

“For Democrats…they do not want to face their primary voters having voted for ICE and DHS funding without getting something for it..."
— Brian Gardner (23:55)

6. Tech Industry’s Silence on Social Issues

• Muted Tech Response: Deirdre Bosa notes tech CEOs’ avoidance of direct comment on the Minneapolis shooting, contrasting current strategy with more activist roles in previous years (26:59).

Notable Quotes

“The silence from major tech leaders...underscores how much the sector has shifted...”
— Deirdre Bosa (26:59)

7. More on the Metals and Energy Markets

• Extreme Moves: Gold up 82% YTD, silver’s outperformance drives ratio to decade lows, and natural gas spikes 120% week-over-week. Spot prices in some regions skyrocket (30:44).
• Short-Term vs. Secular: Guests debate if commodities can sustain such momentum or whether a pullback is likely following these parabolic moves.

8. U.S. Market and Economic Fundamentals

• Wells Fargo's View:
  • Scott Wren: “Moving into a modest growth, moderating inflation environment. You’ve got plenty of AI Capex...The Fed will probably cut a couple of times.” (34:18)
• Inflation Expected to Stay Near 3%: Slightly below-core scenario but not expecting return to pre-pandemic norms (35:48).

Notable Quote

“We’re not big fans of fearing that inflation is going to go higher, might not drift a lot lower, but it’s certainly above where the Fed wants to see it, that’s for sure.”
— Scott Wren (35:48)

9. Wildfire Technology Partnerships

• AI-Enabled Wildfire Detection: CEOs of Lockheed Martin and PG&E announce a $100M+ joint venture (Amber Point) with Salesforce and Wells Fargo to use AI and space/aerial data for rapid wildfire detection (40:19).
  • Jim Taiclet (Lockheed): “This can mitigate fire risk by enabling us to predict, detect and then address and respond to fires in ways that have never been thought of before. Taking fire detection from hours to minutes.” (43:46)
  • Patty Poppe (PG&E): “We’ve lowered rates 11% since 2024...This is just one more potential enabler...create a return on investment [for customers] as we move forward.” (41:34-42:50)

Notable Quotes

“The wildfire is just another enemy. We know how to sense enemies...and how to defend against those threats...”
— Jim Taiclet (43:46)

10. Bitcoin and Crypto Update

• Fragile Crypto Market: Bitcoin tries to regain footing, but significant ETF outflows signal risk appetite remains cautious (36:22).
  • Mackenzie Sigalos: "Traders are using Bitcoin as a pressure sensor for risk appetite." (36:22)

Important Timestamps and Segments

• Metals and Markets Open: 00:57, 02:12-06:20
• Fed Chair Discussion: 02:12, 03:50, 04:19
• Fed Statement Preview & Inflation Talk: 07:00-10:49
• Treasury Auction/Dollar Commentary: 11:00-13:12
• Tech Earnings & Strategy: 14:01-19:06
• Commodity Call: 17:03-18:02
• Government Shutdown/Minneapolis Shooting: 21:23-26:58
• Tech's Social Stance: 26:59
• Metals/Energy Price Moves: 30:44-34:18
• U.S. Market Strategy: 34:18-36:21
• Bitcoin Market: 36:22
• Wildfire Mitigation Partnership: 40:19-46:36

Memorable Quotes

• “All roads, no matter what, lead to inflation.” — James Chukmuk (18:02)
• “The dollar is basically the yen trade.” — Rick Santelli (12:33)
• “The Fed will probably cut a couple of times and you got deregulation. So for us, I can think of a lot of things, why people should like America and assets in America.” — Scott Wren (34:18)
• “The wildfire is just another enemy. We know how to sense enemies.” — Jim Taiclet (43:46)

Tone & Style

The episode maintains CNBC’s signature brisk, data-driven, and slightly skeptical newsroom tone. Kelly Evans leads with incisive questioning, and guest contributions oscillate between cautious optimism (re: economic and tech fundamentals) and clear-eyed warnings (inflation, political risk, fiat currency doubts).

Summary

This episode captures the volatile crosswinds shaping late January 2026: surging metals (especially gold), FX intrigue, tech’s pivotal earnings reports, fraught political landscape with a possible government shutdown, industry’s shifting stance on social justice, and the ascent of AI-driven solutions to real-world crises like wildfires. Market participants, policymakers, and corporate leaders are all recalibrating to high uncertainty, but the prevailing thread is that inflation and policy shifts—both in D.C. and overseas—are set to define the coming months.

For listeners seeking a pulse on metals, macro policy moves, tech positioning, and government affairs in U.S. markets, this episode of The Exchange encapsulates 2026's early turbulence with clarity and depth.