The Exchange — CNBC

Episode: Meta's Major Momentum, Tesla's Major Pivot, and Microsoft's Major Problem

Date: January 29, 2026
Host: Kelly Evans

Episode Overview

This episode of The Exchange dives deep into major market moves and pivotal shifts across the tech sector and commodities. The main focus is on Meta’s explosive revenue beat and ambitious capex plans, Tesla’s dramatic company pivot led by Elon Musk, Microsoft’s concerning stock decline amidst AI competitive pressures, and the wild action in metals markets against the backdrop of a potentially weaker US dollar. The show features in-depth analysis with leading Wall Street analysts, lively debate, and contrasting viewpoints—as well as a breakdown of the possible macroeconomic and policy drivers behind today’s headlines.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Meta’s Major Momentum: AI-Fueled Revenue Growth

Guest: Brent Thale (Jefferies, Tech Sector Research Analyst)
Timestamps: 00:38–09:45

• Meta’s Stock Soars: Shares are up almost 9% on a big quarterly revenue and guidance beat, despite outlining capex plans that could total $135 billion this year.
• Capex Justified: Brent Thale asserts the massive spending is warranted by Meta’s underlying earning power and differentiated AI investments.
  • Quote: "They’re going to do $36 earning power and you can actually lower the multiple on it and get much better outcome in terms of the stock." (03:02 – Brent Thale)
• AI as the Differentiator:
  • Meta’s investments in AI have improved engagement, ad load, and ultimately revenue growth, keeping the platform ahead of competitors.
  • "The world of this immersive Internet and world that they're creating is so different than what Google and others are creating." (03:31 – Brent Thale)
• Investor Sentiment: Meta demonstrates strong acceleration in revenue; the Street is recognizing it as an AI winner, similar to the upbeat Nvidia narrative.

2. Microsoft’s Major Problem: Lagging AI Impact and Investor Capitulation

Guest: Brent Thale
Timestamps: 04:35–09:45, 27:26–29:53 (with Deirdre Bosa)

• Stock Plunge: Microsoft’s stock suffers its worst day in five years (down almost 12%), dragging down the software sector broadly.
• Inflection Elsewhere: Thale explains money is flowing out of software into sectors with more clear-cut AI-driven growth, notably semiconductors and hardware.
  • Quote: "It's not that Microsoft is bad, it's just that the numbers are not inflecting in AI." (05:03 – Brent Thale)
• AI Adoption Lagging: "Software has not come to AI yet"—investors are exiting as exciting AI payoffs happen elsewhere first (e.g., hardware, semis).
• OpenAI Anxiety: Heavy reliance on OpenAI is now seen more as a risk than a differentiator, especially with model commoditization and competition from Google Gemini and Anthropic.
  • Deirdre Bosa: "That dependence on OpenAI is taking a lot away from certainty going forward." (29:12)

3. Tesla’s Major Pivot: Betting the Company on Robotics & Autonomy

Guest: George Janarik (Canaccord, Sustainability Research Analyst)
Timestamps: 09:56–15:11

• Drastic Company Transformation: Tesla to discontinue Model S and X, repurposing its Fremont factory to build Optimus humanoid robots and pour $20B+ into capex—doubling last year’s spend.
  • Quote: "To finally cut ties to the S and X, spend $20 billion in CapEx, and maybe even build a semi fab, it's a pretty big deal." (10:38 – George Janarik)
• Vision Over Visibility: Modeling Tesla now “incredibly difficult”—the company shifts to betting on autonomy and robots rather than traditional auto sales.
• Robotaxi Revolution: Introduction of CyberCab, a steering-wheel-less vehicle as part of the robotaxi strategy; plans to scale to millions by decade’s end.
  • "They plan to make more of those and sell more of those than they have every other vehicle in their lineup." (12:46 – George Janarik)
• Valuation Tied to Musk’s Vision: Tesla’s value is as much about Musk’s boldness as fundamentals. Musk could become the world’s first trillionaire if this pivot succeeds.

4. Metals Mania & The Dollar’s Plot Twist

Guests: Pippa Stevens (CNBC), Chris Murphy (Susquehanna), Michael Gapen (Morgan Stanley), Barry Knapp (Ironsides Macro)

Metals Mayhem

Timestamps: 17:36–22:41

• Gold & Silver at Records: Gold, silver, and copper surged to new highs; copper especially displayed unprecedented volatility with an 12% intraday move.
  • "A move like this is almost unheard of. Copper is usually pretty stable. It is not a tech stock that can swing 10% in a day." (17:36 – Pippa Stevens)
• Speculation vs. Fundamentals: Surge attributed first to fears of dollar debasement and geopolitical worries, then retail momentum and speculative fervor.
  • "This reminds me of meme stocks." (21:36 – Kelly Evans)
• Volatility Dynamics: Options in metals markets behaving chaotically, with historic levels of implied volatility—unusual pricing quirks make trading risky.

Dollar’s Secular Shift

Timestamps: 32:23–40:02

• Structural Break in USD: Analysis suggests the dollar’s relationship with Fed policy expectations has “structurally broken,” potentially starting a secular decline.
  • "The dollar is undergoing a secular decline. The trick for Treasury Secretary Bessant will be making sure it doesn't get disorderly." (32:23 – Barry Knapp)
• Macro Impact on Commodities: Weak dollar helps fuel commodity price action; China now accumulating gold and other assets instead of dollars, reallocating trade surpluses.
• Limited Inflation Pass-Through: Despite risks, import channel for inflation in US still modest; but policymakers must watch massive foreign holdings of US assets ($62 trillion).

5. Big Tech’s AI Race: Startups & Kingmakers

Timestamps: 24:18–29:53, 44:23–45:40

• Shifting AI Strategies: Microsoft & OpenAI’s synergy once a key differentiator, but now a source of risk amid stiff competition from Google’s Gemini and Anthropic.
• Industry Scorecard: Each company is now measured by AI product adoption, revenue growth, and ecosystem partnerships.
• Apple’s Hardware Focus: Ahead of Apple’s earnings, the narrative focuses on iPhone hardware as their main monetizable AI play (with “Apple Intelligence” expected to boost device upgrades rather than recurring SaaS revenue).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Brent Thale (on Meta’s momentum, 03:02):
  "We think the stock's going to a thousand... They're going to do $36 earning power and you can actually lower the multiple on it and get much better outcome in terms of the stock."

• Brent Thale (on Microsoft’s inflection problem, 05:03):
  "The problem is that there's so much more excitement going on when you look at what's going on in the build out of infrastructure. Software has not come to AI yet...if we had a normal environment, stock's down a couple percent."

• George Janarik (on Tesla’s pivot, 10:38):
  "...to finally cut ties to the S and X, spend $20 billion in CapEx, and maybe even build a semi fab, it's a pretty big deal."

• Kelly Evans (on metals volatility, 19:52):
  "It's one thing to move shares of GameStop, I mean who cares, right? But when you're moving the price of important components of the global economy, it makes me a little nervous."

• Chris Murphy (on wild metals option markets, 20:53):
  "When implied volatility is above 100... You're expecting the underlying to move 6% on an average day. So today's move in silver is very much a nothing when you compare it to what it's expected to move."

• Barry Knapp (on the dollar’s structural break, 32:23):
  "The dollar had a structural break with the market implied Fed policy path on Liberation Day... I think the dollar is undergoing a secular decline."

• Michael Gapen (on asset flows, 36:43):
  "There are so many investors outside the United States that hold dollar assets. The rest of the world holds $62 trillion in US dollar liabilities. There is no other market that can handle that size."

• George Janarik (on Tesla’s future, 15:00):
  "He'll be very likely the world's first trillionaire if he does what he's set out to do."

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Meta's Momentum (Brent Thale): 00:38–09:45
• Microsoft's Drop & AI Competition: 04:35–09:45, 27:26–29:53
• Tesla’s Pivot (George Janarik): 09:56–15:11
• Metals Mayhem & Speculation (Pippa Stevens, Chris Murphy): 17:36–24:18
• The Dollar, Macro, and Commodities (Barry Knapp, Michael Gapen): 32:23–40:02
• Big Tech AI Race, Apple's Outlook (Deirdre Bosa, Steve Kovac): 27:26–29:53, 44:23–45:40

Additional Fast-Facts

• Software stocks had their worst month since 2008 (ServiceNow, Salesforce both hammered)
• Royal Caribbean led S&P gains, suggesting some rotation into travel/leisure
• News Alert: SpaceX and xAI in merger talks ahead of possible IPO (40:38)

Tone & Style

Lively, analytical, sometimes irreverent; guests and host Kelly Evans balance hard-nosed financial analysis with conversational humor, focusing on making sense of rapid market changes and investor psychology in real time.

This episode is packed with actionable insights and in-the-moment analysis for anyone tracking tech, macro, and commodities. It’s a must-listen for understanding why Wall Street’s enthusiasm—or fear—is rapidly changing day by day in 2026.