
Micron crossing $1 trillion in market cap for the first time; how much room is left to run? Pope Leo calling for the “disarming” of AI, saying it threatens to normalize an “anti-human vision” of society. And as the New York Knicks head to their first NBA finals since 1999, Wall Street is buzzing about Madison Square Garden Sports’ potential spinoff of the Knicks and Rangers.
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Kelly Evans
Here's today's show. Thank you very much, Scott. More record highs, more concerned about AI and some astounding moves in the memory names. I'm Kelly Evans and welcome to the Exchange. The S and P, the Nasdaq and the Russell small caps all at new records today. The Dow sitting it out with about a 185 point drop. But semis and memory are leading the way again. Just look at some of these stats. Micron is Soaring more than 16%. The company has hit $1 trillion in market cap. Hard to fathom 1 trillion dol in market cap for micron. Western Digital up 8. SanDisk almost 9. The Semi ETF, the VanEck Semi ETF estimates we're showing there is up another 3.6% today. It's up 66% this year. So let's start right there with these seemingly unstoppable moves. Micron and Western Digital up more than 200% this year. SanDisk, how about 560? And Micron CEO saying in an interview Friday he sees the memory chip shortages lasting beyond 2026. Here for our opening exchange, Gil Laurier from DA Davidson. Gil, it's great to see you and talk to you about what sparked the latest move higher here.
Gil Laurier
I think everybody's just recalibrating how they think of memory. Memory that existed even up until a year ago was a small byproduct of the data center where some applications and information was stored in. In the era of AI, memory is one of the most important components. The models are only limited by memory. Now how they get trained, how they get delivered, how they interact is all capped by Memory. That's what people in the technology industry are referring to, the memory wall. And since to get more memory, we need to build new plans. And as you mentioned, the CEO of Micron just mentioned that there's no new plans coming online until 2027, 28. That means that the price of memory will continue to go up, not just the volume. That sets these companies up very well. And Micron is the gold standard. It's an American based company that deals in the highest value added parts of memory, the DRAM and the high bandwidth memory. And it doesn't look like their growth is going to slow down anytime soon. The stock's gone up a lot, but their earnings from fiscal 24 to fiscal 27 will have gone up 100 times. $100 of earnings, which is what they'll do next year, is 10 times their previous cyclical high. And yet even as we speak right now, they're still trading at only nine times forward earnings.
Kelly Evans
That's the almost hilarious part, except that we all remember these cycles that the memory names go through and why they would deserve perhaps that discount. $1 trillion valuation. A trillion doll for a memory name. Is that reasonable?
Gil Laurier
Absolutely. The contrast to make right now is how CPU companies are trading. Right? So your AMD and Intel are trading at least at 40 times, depending on how kind you are to intel and its fab. When we're talking about Micron training at nine times, they're all cyclical. If we have. If the demand for AI slows down, the demand for both of their products is going to slow down. But that doesn't look like that's happening anytime soon. And there's some reasons to believe the memory market may be even better than the CPU market. We talked about the fact that you need more CPUs because that's how agents work. They actually execute on the CPU what the GPU told it to execute, which means you need more CPUs per GPU. But in memory, it's exponential. The bigger the model, the more you need memory. The more you load into the model for inference, the more you need memory, and then the longer you interact with the model, the more you need memory. So if the memory market is good, or maybe better than the CPU market, why is there such a big discrepancy in multiples? And in the CPU market, these excess profits are drawing in competition. Nvidia just said that from not selling CPUs on a standalone basis at all last year, they're going to have $20 billion of CPU revenue this year, while ARM is starting to sell CPUs while in memory at the high end we don't have any new competition. It's just Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix. So why are CPU stocks trading at 40 times and memory at 9 times?
Kelly Evans
So if memory stocks had a market multiple that this would be a $3 trillion company. I mean it's really amazing to wrap your so some of the knocks I've heard on Micron in particular are that a lot of its earnings growth, that 100x factor that you mentioned, has come through pricing, not through volumes necessarily. So when it, when the cycle turns you could have 100x of downs. I mean that's why they would trade it at a nine times multiple.
Gil Laurier
Well, that's how memory was before again when it played a small part and it was a commodity, it's no longer a commodity. Right. Nvidia's co designing with these companies. This is now an integral part of the data center design. It's not interchangeable, it's not fungible. So it's not the same market. And so these companies can continue to price at these levels for the foreseeable future. Again, no new supply at least until 2027, maybe even late 2027. So there's no reason for them to change that which they are now leveraging for long term agreements. Memory, when it was a commodity, used to be on a spot market on an invoice basis. Now they're doing long term deals with hyperscalers that at least want to lock in these prices or some relatively moderate escalation as opposed to worry about the fact that a year or two from now when there's a lot more demand and there isn't any more supply, they wouldn't have to pay three or four times as much.
Kelly Evans
Do you.
Gil Laurier
The memory companies are transforming themselves into far less cyclical companies.
Kelly Evans
I wonder how many of those watching have had the same thought where they go, you know, because at the moment the Chatbots loss it was launched, it was pretty clear it was a shocking transformational new technology. Don't you sometimes go back and wish man, if I had just foreseen how this would play out for Nvidia, how this would play out for oh, but then the GPU would lead to the CPU and then there'd be the right and then if you had just foreseen what this would mean for do you ever like one of the most incredible money making opportunities of all time? And so I think the frustration a lot of us feel is every day that it goes on, you both feel like well I missed it but it's still going. I don't want to get in now. I, I don't know how much longer this goes on. If we didn't really see it coming we're not going to see it turning. It's. It's both astonishing and amusing and also frustrating to watch.
Gil Laurier
It's all sun cost. We can go back in time and change our investment decisions. We can make decision now and the world changes so quickly. We wouldn't be having this conversation even six months ago before anthropic and agentic AI increase the demand and put it on, on another exponential slope. All we can do is follow the developments as they happen and they're happening very rapidly and say what can happen from here and for you take a reasonable time frame a year out, right. Are we going to have more supply of memory a year from now? We won't. Is in video going to be in great shape a year from now? It will. We know those things and those are the things we hang on to and making decisions for the next year year.
Kelly Evans
And for you that includes all of the memory stocks, basically the semis. I mean is there anything you would kind of caution people about or it's just the visibility that you have based on everything that's happened is you can, you got to chase it, you got to own it, you got to have it.
Gil Laurier
We really focused on Micron and memory. They're at the high end. There's other companies like SanDisk and Western Digital that are in different markets and Micron does make and as well which is at the lower end but it's becoming a less important part of its business. The other companies are Korean and Japanese. They have their own specific issues. Samsung's employees may go on strike. So we're really focused on Micron here. It's an American company. It's building in the U.S. yeah. President Trump took the CEO with him to China last week. This is a gold standard company. If he was trying to get a huge premium to all these other companies, maybe we'd have to be more selective but it's not. And so that's the one we're focused on.
Kelly Evans
I hate to say if you were an employee at sam, this is not a bad time to go on strike when the entire world's, you know, stock markets and future production hangs on your bottleneck and maybe if they just get a lot more equity or something, I don't know. But you're right, that's a development that would differentiate them from a Micron and the rest. Gil, always appreciate talking through this with you. Thanks.
Max Wasserman
Thank you.
Kelly Evans
Thanks for making the time. Gil Laurier From D.A. davidson to your note auction. Top of the hour, Rick Santelli, results at the cme. Rick, as we're all going back and forth about what the Fed's going to do next year.
Rick Santelli
Well yeah, and that's all about the two year note and you'll see exactly how it's been affected in a moment. All right. We had the first of three legged auction for 183 billion. This part was a 69 billion tranche of two year notes. The yield 4.071 exactly what the one issued market was at 1 Eastern when the auction ended. So it priced spot on. All the metrics were very close to 10 auction average. My grade for investor demand at the first tranche this two year was a C as in Charlie. But there's some interesting aspects to this as you look at the chart. Pay particularly close attention to the chart that started in February of 25 because just about a week ago we had the high Yield close around 412 and that was the comp all the way back to February 25. So we're six basis points away from its cycle high yield close. But the 10 year their cycle high yield close was right in the high four 60s. So it is much bigger distance which means the curve is flattened rather dramatically and you hit it. Kelly, the main reason is nervousness regarding the Fed outlook and lack of easing. Now whether that ultimately has a long lasting effect on a 2 year only time will tell but the 10 year has been much easier. And just watch oil tenure is following oil straight down. Kelly, back to you.
Kelly Evans
Perfect segue for our next chat. Rick, thanks. Because investors remain upbeat about a Middle east peace deal even as the US conducted fresh strikes on Iran over the long weekend. Which product which caused she should say a mixed reaction in the oil markets today. Our next guest is recommending kind of a barbell strategy of exposure to both the tech and the energy trades. Max Wasserman is here on set with me. He's senior portfolio manager at Miramar. It's good to see you.
Max Wasserman
Good to see you again. Thank you.
Kelly Evans
Rick just said it. Oil goes down, the ten year goes down. Can they both keep falling and if so, do you bail on this energy trade or no, not at all.
Max Wasserman
Because you heard earlier guests talking about how technology is running, right? So with a barbell strategy you want one part of it offsetting the other. And historically energy and technology go different directions. So we know that the Middle East. And we know that energy markets can change every moment, right? So not to have exposure there means you have really no defensive play because of the energy prices. If there's a problem in the Middle east, oil goes right back up, interest rates go up, technology stocks go back down. So you want to have a hedge. You know, we're dividend investors, so we'd like those dividends as well to help the portfolio. Right now we have about 27% in technology and about 10 to 12% in energy. And we like that ratio. Right now you're still getting the growth, but we know that risk is right there. And today everybody's very optimistic, right? Everybody's putting new ps, everything on the technology. But if at the end of the day the President says something different and energy goes up, then we're talking something different tomorrow with it. Maybe a 4, 6 or even a 4, 7 out of 10 year.
Kelly Evans
On the question of which energy names, we've seen some real outperformers like Diamondback. There's obviously the majors. I mean, I don't know if you can get specific, but where do you think that people should be to both be defensive? But you still want to do well. You don't want to sit with 12% of the portfolio and you're watching Micron go up 900%.
Max Wasserman
No, not at all. In fact, that we have investments in Chevron is one of our larger 1:1 oak, which is a pipeline. And then we have EOG, so on exploration. So we have the gamut between the three. But the same token, we have a big investments. Our largest actual investment is in Broadcom. And then we have Alphabet. So we have that seesaw, if you will. And it's played out very well the first quarter of this year when nobody wanted tech and the market was down. Right. So if you are loving energy, we're saying that you need to take a more cautious approach. Nobody knows where this is going to end. They really don't. And you know, everybody's trying to put a new P E, you know, earnings, and they're trying, you know, technology. But I think it's a mistake because P E is applied for predictable earnings every single day. You have everybody upscaling what their earnings are going to look like for chips, what they're going to look like for data centers. So how do you put it on that? So what they do is they just ratchet up the multiple expansion and they try to justify it where the rest of the market is more predictable earnings. That's why you have the 2025. I don't know if you can ever put those multiples on chip stocks. They're doing it right now, but that would change.
Kelly Evans
Right.
Max Wasserman
So we think, remember things change quickly and we're seeing a Fed that's coming in that everybody thought was going to be cutting interest rates right now. And now everybody's wondering will they have to raise it potentially if inflation is that stubborn. So we think there's a lot of risk here and nobody's really adjusting for it.
Kelly Evans
You also have a few names like Home Depot, Abbott Labs, you know, is this because of you're looking for again kind of income plays here for the whole portfolio or just because you, I mean Home Depot has been a tough stock. Abbott Labs, some of these have been really tough parts of the market. Is that okay with you because you can either clip the coupon and they're a small percentage just in case or do you at some point really expect these to start performing better?
Max Wasserman
Well, first of all they're great companies. It's right now like the companies are broken. It's the market doesn't want them. Right. Everybody's playing I don't want homes because you know sales and interest rates are too high. We don't want defensive like health care because we just don't see the growth as it was mislike Covid anymore. So we are paying for it. Great companies paying you a 3% yield and we think a tremendous growth potential. Nobody wants them now but they will. Right. So the question is where's your asymmetrical return?
Kelly Evans
What's your time horizon when you're.
Max Wasserman
Well, we're looking at, we're long term investors so we're willing to look two, three, four years. I know it's a crazy thing to do in this market.
Kelly Evans
Long term is 20. No.
Mark Harris
Right.
Max Wasserman
But we're looking, look at that. So when you have a change. Nobody wanted energy by the way last year, right. And now everybody's talking about it. And by the way, we take a company like Qualcomm, we have an investment it nobody wanted that in April. In April was 130, $140. Stock today hit 250. Nothing's really changed. Its perceptions change. So perception will change. And imagine for a moment we go into the fall. Let's say the Fed does start talking about cutting interest rates or the economy slows down. That's going to change where people want to be asset allocated to where they're going to be. Well, your asymmetrical return, I mean Abbott Labs, a great company is up 33%. Right? Home Depot down. So your asymmetrical return is there, right? Not trading a huge multiples, everybody piling into these tech trades. We have these investments. But how much you think you're really going to make are you hoping for to keep the greater fool theory somebody else is going to keep?
Kelly Evans
I mean you wouldn't buy a Micron here.
Max Wasserman
Then how you predict the earnings, right? How do you put a multiple on earnings you can't really predict? And that's the question. We have a Broadcom, we have a Qualcomm. We're not going to chase everything we know there's some areas we're not, but we see what happens. Any word comes out a semiconductor, any chip, this is, we have inventory build up. These things you can't get away from. So it's great for momentum, it's great to have a little exposure. But chasing here, I know somebody just put a sixteen hundred dollar target on Micron. Okay, great. So you're going to come in now and you're going to, you know, if I want to go to Vegas, I'll go to Vegas. You know, I buy good investments. You know, our clients are wealthy, they want to stay wealthy. They're not looking to try to double triple their money. They're good consistent returns and control risk. All right, you got to have a basement exposure here, but let's be realistic.
Kelly Evans
I was about to go double long, now I'm. Oh, you're talking me off the ledge.
Max Wasserman
Not too much. Too much there, Max.
Kelly Evans
Thanks very much. Really good to check in with you today. Max Wasserman with Miramar Capital. Coming up, Pope Leo calling for the disarming of artificial intelligence in a stark warning about the dangers of this new technology to humanity. As he was flanked by one of anthropic co founders. By the way, how should investors factor this into the AI trade? We'll talk about that next. Plus, the New York Knicks advancing to their first NBA Finals since 1999. I see, I see a deer cheering over there. Kareem. Double cheers over here. Is it time they become their own standalone public company? Shares of MSG Sweet Sports have nearly doubled over the past year. We'll ask longtime shareholder Charlie Berbrinskoy about that ahead on the exchange.
Max Wasserman
This is the exchange on cnbc.
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Kelly Evans
Welcome back. Pope Leo's first encyclical was issued over the weekend. The topic Artificial intelligence A stark warning. Actually the Pope warning that AI threatens to normalize what he described as a quote, anti human vision of society. A world where technology could prioritize efficiency over people, replace human judgment, disrupt jobs and concentrate power inside a handful of non state companies. This comes as AI leaders themselves are racing to shape the future of tech. Notably, Anthropic co founder Christopher Ola was among those attending the encyclical presentation. Let's talk more about this now with Daniel Newman. He's CEO of the Futurum Group. Does the Pope have a point? Daniel, welcome.
Daniel Newman
Hey Kelly, good to see you. And you know we've spoken many times before and I'm very optimistic about AI. But I think the Pope does bring a a good point. This is an important conversation to be had. I think saying that he is, you know, very negative should be balanced with a more nuanced viewpoint. He wants responsible and ethical use. He doesn't want a few companies to potentially control how AI works and how it is distributed. And of course anyone that's observing from here could say that could happen if we don't put the right frameworks and governance around how AI continues to proliferate around society. But I also thought that he made a number of comments about how technology is for good. I think it was 135 years ago a prior Pope Leo did A similar encyclical about the industrialization, the Industrial revolution. And here we are, we were concerned about jobs, we were concerned about what that would mean for the economies, for innovation. And like every technological revolution, it came with more jobs, a larger economy and more opportunity.
Kelly Evans
Yeah, he said something to the effect of, you know, in the first rare Navarro or whatever back in the day, there was a thought, thinking at the time that Pope should only comment on kind of matters of faith directly. And he said no, that that's what began social teaching. This idea of like the world still impinges upon all people, all Catholics. And so it's okay for us to comment. So he's continuing in that vein and to choose this as the first topic and to be quite cautious about it. Do you think that's going to have some, an impact on the way that, you know, maybe it gives people a little bit of pause, but I'm not sure what the practical impact might be on Silicon Valley.
Daniel Newman
Well, we have a really important set of consequences right now in terms of deciding how much governance, how much policy to put over. I just think about the US and China consistently battling for economic superiority and the impact that I could have. So if the west decides to, to slow down, to maybe be more methodical, to put more, to apply more policy and governance around AI, will that stop other parts of the world from potentially moving faster? We have this conversation constantly right here on this platform. So we have a lot at stake here because there is no question that there's going to be trillions of dollars of economic productivity gains that will come from. I think we're seeing that. I think anyone that uses it every day is seeing the impact that AI has. We have questions about receipts, we have questions about earnings, we have questions about security. We've cut. And I think the Pope is bringing up a really important point that Silicon Valley elites, public company CEOs, policy leaders around the country and around the world, they need to be asking, how do we put rules and rails around AI that make sure that we don't slow innovation, we don't cause harm to our economy, we don't lose the battle with China to be, be the leaders of AI on a global scale. But at the same time, we have to say we need to keep children safe, we need to maintain pillars in our society like education, government. All these things need to happen. So there's a lot of nuance right here. And I think it's great that the Pope is using his voice to bring the conversation to the forefront.
Kelly Evans
I have certainly not Made it all the way through. It is a beautiful, you know, there's many sections for that there goes into love and all this. I mean it really philosophically is, is a wonderful reflection. What does it say to you that the Anthropic co founder is involved and is kind of part of the presentation?
Daniel Newman
Yeah, I have really mixed feelings. We use Anthropic deeply throughout our organization. It's a wonderful technology. Anthropic has probably made more money than any other company by creating fear around AI. I can't even begin to extrapolate how much market cap out of SaaS and out of other AI related industry move to anthropic as it went from 300 billion to 1.3 trillion. But I think they have this sort of again, like the Pope, this nuanced approach of saying, hey, we're going to put our hands up. We're going to question the government use, we're going to question ethical use. You know, we've, we've spent the last two decades, Kelly, you and I have children, you know, asking questions of ourselves. Should our children spend more time on iPads? How much screen time should they have?
Kelly Evans
Don't get me started. You don't. She's going to, she's going to start. I will say, Daniel, when I read this, I almost wish that a similar reflection about screens broadly had happened. Maybe 5, 10. And in many ways AI is kind of the tip of the spear for something that to me is about more than AI. It's really about like the. So I hope that it's that people don't think it's overly narrow in its message. I mean it's a point in which we're all sort of saying, yeah, we're putting our hands up and saying, I think we need some help with this.
Daniel Newman
Those are algorithms. I mean that is AI. That was the application of AI, whether it's our Netflix feeds, our Instagram feedback feeds. It's the, you know, it's the quote unquote, the brain rot as we flip through TikTok and stair. And we haven't asked a lot of questions about that along the way. AI is a. Another application. So again, it all goes back to how we use it. Do we use it for good? Because people have used the Internet for great things and we've expanded the economic condition exponentially because of the Internet. But we've also allowed a lot of bad things to happen through hacking in the dark web and through what we can be exposed to on the Internet. I think is going to have the same set change is happening faster than ever before. And I think as a society people do extremely well with change over longer periods of time. But this change is exponential, it's rapid. And with AI we're dealing with that short period of change and people are just not adapting really well. And that's where I think we need
Kelly Evans
structure quickly to put a pin in it. You say as opposed to framing this is whether AI is good or evil, which the encyclical does not. But you know, nor should the public discourse. You're saying it really should be about, as you were saying, disparate distribution and speed. Is there anything further to add to that?
Daniel Newman
I think that this, the pace of change, Kelly, is, is extraordinary right now. And so we need to have a balance of continuing to try to lead the world, grow the economy, but we need to train people. We need to have a real conversation about careers, jobs and the human purpose as AI continues to, you know, create all of this year. So it's a great conversation. I'm glad we're having they're still having
Kelly Evans
trillion dollar IPOs, I assume in the wake of this probably three it looks like exactly soon. Incredible. And just, you know, Micron's a trillion dollar company. These could be 3 trillion IPOs. Daniel, really appreciate it. Thanks for making the time.
Daniel Newman
Always good.
Kelly Evans
Daniel Newman from the Futurum Group. Speaking of Tech, don't miss CNBC's full interview with Amazon executive chair and Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos in case you missed any of it. And bon boy, has it had a big impact since airing the first time. Catch it tonight at 7:00pm Eastern. Coming up, if you've gone grocery shopping lately, you might have noticed egg prices are down sharply from this time last year. We'll tell you what's driving the drop next.
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Kelly Evans
wherever you get your podcasts. We have record highs for the S and P, the NASDAQ, the Russell 2000. Today the Dow is near session lows, though erasing a 200 point gain earlier on the Russell. Small caps are still up about a percent and a half. Now to the pantry staple that has served as a constant inflation gauge. Eggs. The prices are down 39% year on year. That's from the latest CPI data. So yes, some relief for consumers. But of course, the steep decline in prices is hurting retailers. CNBC food and wellness reporter Brandon Gomez is here with more. Can I tell them what you just told me?
Brandon Gomez
Yeah, please.
Kelly Evans
Or do you want to tell them?
Mark Harris
No.
Brandon Gomez
I mean, I can dig into the reasons why, but how much did you
Kelly Evans
just pay for eggs in Connecticut?
Brandon Gomez
Under a dollar for a dozen. Okay, then this is the so egg prices, right? They're falling fast after last year's avian flu shock left shelves empty and prices soaring. Now the dynamics, as you have heard, have flipped. I was at the grocery store this weekend. You saw a dozen eggs for less than a dollar. So what happened? Well, producers have aggressively rebuilt flocks after losing millions of hens last year. And that pushed wholesale prices lower. And it's now squeezing margins for these prices. Producers, companies across the industry like Cal, Maine and Walmart flagging egg deflation this quarter. Walmart even said lower egg prices drove a slowdown in private label sales. Now I spoke with the CEO of organic egg producer Pete and Jerry's. Here's what he said.
Kelly Evans
A lot of retailers today are facing
Max Wasserman
50 to 60% price deflation on their commodity eggs.
Kelly Evans
Again, cage and cage free. Not on ours. So that's a, that's a challenge for them. They have to lap some very high
Max Wasserman
revenue numbers from last year versus some
Kelly Evans
very low revenue numbers this year.
Brandon Gomez
You heard, he said. Not on ours. But Pete and Jerry's is not immune to macro pressure. He told me companies like his are still dealing with higher input costs, feed, diesel, labor. And this all comes as protein demand booms. Four in 10Americans say they're More focused on protein than they were five years ago with eggs remaining a staple. Cheaper. Breakfast is good news, Kelly, for shoppers, but bad news when you're talking about these grocers and producers who have a bottom line to produce tech.
Kelly Evans
I'm trying to get to 140 grams of protein a day. Do you know how hard it is?
Brandon Gomez
It's very hard. I'm at the 200 mark at this point.
Kelly Evans
Oh my gosh.
Brandon Gomez
Possible.
Kelly Evans
Yeah. And eggs have too much fat, so then you got to go with the egg whites. I'm paying seven now. I'm fancy and I get mine delivered with, with milk. Organic milk Co is great company, but I'm still paying 799 each per dozen for those eggs.
Brandon Gomez
And I'd be curious to see right where those eggs are sourced, as you heard from Pete and Jerry. Is it's not across the board the same issue. But what is the same issue is the input costs are continuing to rise. Diesel fuel for a lot of these organic egg producers. They have to transport their eggs from the farms where they pick them up to then to the distribution center and then into the grocery store. So it's all eating into margins regardless. I just, I find this is a fascinating way to look behind the curtain to see what's actually happening. And if the macroeconomics is what's driving these prices lower, what we're hearing is it's because of this oversupply issue.
Kelly Evans
Even in a weird way, it might take the sting out. Yes, gasoline prices are really high, but if people notice a little bit of relief somewhere else, maybe that helps. Still, we'll see if it's sustainable. To be quite that low like it is, like 1999 all over again. And that's for later in the show. Brandon, thanks. Let's get to Contessa Brewer now for a CNBC news update. Hi, Contessa.
Contessa Brewer
Hi there, Kelly. Elon Musk is responding to a Reuters report saying the Pentagon and Space X were at odds over a price increase of the company's StarLink service for US drones used in the war against Iran. Musk calls the report false and says the Pentagon made improper use of this Starlight Starlink civilian system used it for military purposes, which he called a direct violation of terms of service. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is calling Alberta's separatist movement a dangerous bluff. Last week the oil rich province announced plans to hold a vote this fall on secession from Canada. Calshi odds right now have it at a 20%, 3% chance they will vote to Leave. Connecticut is launching an investigation into the online gaming and chat platform Roblox. State's attorney general says the investigation is based on reports of child exploitation and harm on that platform, claiming that Roblox has built an online pedophile playground. His words. Connecticut has previously sued Meta and is investigating TikTok in efforts to protect kids online. That's the news right now. Kelly will send it back to you.
Kelly Evans
All right, thank you, Contessa. Coming up, the New York Knicks advancing to the NBA Finals for the first time since. Yes, 1999. That's got wall street excited about the future of Madison Square Garden Sports. Will the company go through with splitting off the Knicks and the Rangers? We'll speak with longtime shareholder Charlie Wabrinskoy. Welcome back. It was a night to remember in New York as the Knicks make their way to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999. The win putting both MSG stocks in focus. That's Madison Square Garden Sports, which owns the Knicks, Rangers, some local sport affiliates and a trading center. And then there's Madison Square Garden Entertainment, owner of the Arena, Radio City Music hall, the Beacon Theater, and a number of regional sports networks. Wall street is now expecting another split. Here to talk about that is Charlie But Brinskoy, the vice chair and head of the investment group at Ariel Investments, he's owned MSGS and MSG since 2015, which was before that split. And Charlie, we are a Chicago guy. We should point out this is not, you're not sitting there as a, you know, as a New Yorker rooting for. So it just, I find that amusing. But anyway, it's great to have you back and what a night.
Charlie Berbrinskoy
Thanks. Thanks, Kelly. Great to be here. By the way, Bulls and Bears are not public companies, so it's impossible for me to own them.
Kelly Evans
Exactly. So you're forced to look elsewhere. For the record, are they going to split off the Knicks and the Rangers? What? I don't know if I feel like us even talking about it might jinx them. So let's just say if the Knicks were to make it to the Finals, win the Finals, how much of a tailwind would that be for spinning them off?
Charlie Berbrinskoy
Yeah, I think that's the right way to ask the question because it is critical that they complete this spin. It's not so much how much money they're going to make by being in the Finals. We estimate they make an additional 10 to 15 million dollars per playoff game, including in the Finals. If you do that by 4, you get maybe $50 million. We think this is worth $9 billion. So it's not so much the extra money you make by being in the finals. It's, and this is the theory that there's been a lot of pressure put on Jim Dolan for his ownership. He didn't want to sell when they weren't doing well. This would be the perfect time to sell. After winning the championship, he can focus on what he loves, which is music and the sphere. The owning the stadium is a great business. This would be a wonderful way to ride out into the sunset.
Kelly Evans
So he'd keep the stadium. He'd spin out the team that.
Charlie Berbrinskoy
Well, that's the idea. He's going to split the Rangers and the Knicks into two different companies and then hopefully sell one of the two. Right now, the stock is selling for about 60% of Forbes magazine's valuations of the two teams. And so we think there's still a lot of value here, but people aren't sure he's going to sell. And so one scenario is he just sells the Rangers for about $4 billion. That would, we think, be very positive for the stock even on its own, if he keeps the Knicks.
Kelly Evans
So what do you think the Knicks are worth?
Charlie Berbrinskoy
Yeah, the Forbes valuation is. Is around $9 billion. That's third highest behind the warriors and the Lakers. So we think that's. That estimate is old estimates before the team went on this incredible historic winning streak, best winning streak in playoff NBA history. And so we think the valuation should be over 10 billion. And that. That can't really happen until the split. You're not technically allowed to do a split in contemplation of a sale, so there would be some time that would have to go by. But we do think the chance of a sale is much higher after these two companies. These two teams are split in half.
Kelly Evans
Michael Zanian at CNBC here, our sports guy, puts their valuation at 10.1 billion. So, yeah, the company is trading at a discount to that. It would be opportune to sell if he wants to. A lot of times people sell and we always read these stories about, you know, groups of billionaires or what. This would be a sale to the public. Why?
Charlie Berbrinskoy
Well, it would be. It's already public. So technically we are on our share of the Knicks and Rangers right now. They're on together. They're going to split into two public companies. And the beauty is if you sell one of the two, there's no corporate tax. If you sell the whole company, then individual owners just pay their share. You don't have the double taxation of selling if they're one of the two, if they're together. The other thing that's going on here, Kelly, it's very important, is that there's new IRS regulations that stops you from deducting for tax purposes salaries of more than $1 million if you're a public company. And the Knicks have salaries of about $225 million. So those rules don't apply if they're a private company. So by going private, if selling to a group of tech billionaires would reduce the tax bill by something like $40 million a year.
Kelly Evans
Wow. Do you think that IRS rule was meant to apply to sports teams?
Charlie Berbrinskoy
It was, yes. It was, in fact specifically discussed on the floor of Congress that it would apply to sports teams. It's in my opinion, crazy. That only applies to public stocks and private stocks. But that is the way it's written. So publicly traded companies cannot deduct salaries more than basically $1 million. And the next salaries, again are about 225.
Kelly Evans
We have to go. But Charlie, is this going to end up meaning that there's many fewer publicly traded sports companies at all?
Charlie Berbrinskoy
There aren't that many now. It's just really the Braves and the Knicks and frankly, these companies don't make a lot of money. They're prestigious. People love to own them. They don't really make a lot of money, so they don't make a lot of sense as public companies. We think the Knicks should be privately owned.
Kelly Evans
Wow. Temper your enthusiasm. Forget, you know, no one wants to own a piece of this. Just let the billionaires deal with it and hope they create winning teams that we can all root for, I guess. Charlie, thanks very much. Appreciate it. Today, Charlie Brinscoy with Ariel. We've got some mega merger merger speculation coming up. Will Elon Musk combine Tesla and Space X into one massive company? Will weigh those pros and cons next. Welcome back. Speculation is starting to build as we gear up for Space X to IPO about a potential merger between that company and Tesla. What could be the benefits and are there any hurdles? Seema Modi is exploring that very question and a big one in today's tech check. Hi, Sima.
Seema Modi
So, Kelly, we've been digging into this one really closely, myself as well as Laura and the digital team about this, this potential merger between these two companies. And what we're hearing is that Elon Musk has engaged in conversations about a potential merger between Space X and Tesla as to why he might push for this. Worth noting. His rewards compensation is tied to two milestones being hit, one of which is achieving a $7.5 trillion market cap. A merger with Tesla would likely get Space x to over 3 trillion. But folding Tesla into Space X does raise the question about his ability to lead what would essentially look like a diversified conglomerate that spans rockets, satellites, data centers and cars. That doesn't seem to faze longtime Space X investor Taj Paul Bhatia.
Charlie Berbrinskoy
And I think it's been proven by Elon himself, but many others that, you know, the days of the serial entrepreneur
Brandon Gomez
where they're doing one at a time, that's of course where all of us have to get our start and takes that level of focus.
Charlie Berbrinskoy
But we've seen with several successful entrepreneurs,
Brandon Gomez
this parallel entrepreneurship seems to work.
Seema Modi
Now Musk is CEO and sits on the board of both SpaceX and Tesla, along with his brother Kimbal. SpaceX board members Antonio Gracias Stevens Durston previously sat on Tesla's board. So there is a lot of shared knowledge. We're also told engineers from both companies often collaborate on solving issues tied to energy, battery storage, compute radiation. The feasibility of a deal may just come down to Musk himself. He certainly controls both companies and we know with Space X He has about 85% voting control, doesn't want this.
Kelly Evans
What would the downsides be?
Seema Modi
Downsides? I think one question is just on the market narrative right now Space X is viewed as this high growth, tech savvy company that many investors want to get in on. But as you grow in market cap and also become more diversified across different businesses, does that lead to a sense that where the company is seen as more of a slow growing industrial company versus one that is hot, which is clearly what investors see right now.
Kelly Evans
Great point. I never imagined making this comparison, but it's like the new ge, right? From years ago before they did all the spin outs and maybe that chapter would be coming. But your point about how he would be. His compensation is tied to market cap. 7 and a half trillion dollars. A big number.
Seema Modi
It's a big number and one that seems right now unachievable. But if you think about one way of growing inorganically and being able to boost the market cap in this way, that would certainly get him there. But of course that's not. The only milestone he has to reach is also bringing 1 million people to Mars, right?
Kelly Evans
Yes.
Seema Modi
Those are the two things he needs to achieve to get that performance bonus that was detailed in the S1 last week.
Daniel Newman
Wow.
Kelly Evans
All right, Seema. Thank you. Sima Modi. Coming up, a sinkhole at New York's LaGuardia Airport report leading to a slew of delays and cancellations over the weekend. But while flyers were left frustrated, our next guest says this could be a sign of opportunity in one area of the market. That's next. Welcome back. A sinkhole at New York's LaGuardia Airport leading to a number of delays and cancellations over the long holiday weekend. That news leaving travelers frustrated. But our next guest says it's a sign that one area of the market is actually set for some gains, specifically the airports. He says it's one of the top areas for opportunities in the muni space. Mark Paris is Invesco CIO and head of municipals here on set with me. Welcome.
Mark Harris
Thank you.
Kelly Evans
Why are airports such a big opportunity right now?
Mark Harris
Yeah, so I think there's a lot that airports bring to investors. First of all, origination and departure fees, gate fees, think about concessions. You know, a lot of people complain that these airports are really long and they have to walk. They used to have a lot of moving sidewalks. Not some more. They want you to buy things while you're waiting for.
Kelly Evans
They've gotten rid of the moving sidewalks so that you buy more. Oh, come on.
Mark Harris
A lot of places have. Absolutely. And so, you know, what we find is that these are great investments. They have high days cash on hand. So that's really good for the credits. They're usually rated A or better and even the weaker ones. I think you find that when you do the math, when you do your research, you know, you go to a lot of cities right now, the cities can be sleepy, but the airports are extremely vibrant. So we found great investments in airports. We think that spreads are going to continue to tighten and yields are very attractive.
Kelly Evans
Munis have done reasonably well this year. I mean, maybe you can quantify it for us. As I understand it, they've outperformed corporates and even the treasury market.
Mark Harris
Yes. So flows have been fantastic into the muni sector this year. After a couple of years of lackluster flows, a couple of years of rates moving around, munis are getting a good amount of money coming into bonds and that's been really good. While supply has been high, high yield supply has actually been very low in the muni market. And so we actually think that high yield municipal bonds start startup. Hospitals, charter schools, continuing care living facilities, those have been really been a good opportunity for investors. But yields in general are just very high. And when you look at like a 4% yield on a 20 year muni bond in, you gross that up. That's Pretty significant returns for what would
Kelly Evans
that be, like 7, 8%?
Mark Harris
It depends on what tax bracket you're in, but absolutely, you're looking at almost equity like returns.
Kelly Evans
Right. So you mentioned startup hospitals, charter schools. I'm just curious, what would their borrowing costs typically be on the other side of that? So again, investors in these spaces would be able to capture what might be an incredible, I mean if we're talking 10% on a tax equivalent basis, that's wow. Obviously it comes with a high default risk, but what, what kind of number is, is typical for those.
Daniel Newman
Yes.
Mark Harris
So you could at 5%, 6%, a lot of high yield long municipal bond funds right now are yielding in the mid fives. And that's because you're buying 5, 6, maybe even 7% deals. But you want to make sure that you have a good security package. You want to make sure that, you know, you have a debt service reserve fund, a good cap I in the bond. And then, you know, when you're investing in the bond, you do constant surveillance on that bond to make sure that the demographic work, the credit works, what competition is going on. So there's a lot of factors that go into it, but yields are very high right now in both high grade and high yield municipals.
Kelly Evans
Interesting. You mentioned that there's been a lot of inflows, a lot of money coming into the muni space. Where's that money coming from?
Mark Harris
Yeah, so it could be a variety of factors. We're certainly seeing some changes in the, in the private credit market. Obviously the equity market is very high. Tremendous amount of money market bonds right now. And if you're getting three and a quarter, three and a half in a money market fund, you know, why not go out on the curve? We love the 20 year part of the curve right now in munis. That's right around, like I said, 4%. It's about 80, 85% of what you get and get on the long end. And then high yield munis, it's a much flatter curve. So you can actually get that 5, 6% yield in a shorter high yield bond. We think that helps on the duration front. And also, you know, clipping that coupon right now is a big deal.
Kelly Evans
But that's interesting. You think that some of the problems with private credit, maybe investors a little less comfortable there, could send them into something that's financing again, a charter school or a startup hospital. But through the muni space, I just
Mark Harris
think muni flows have been low the last few years. We're seeing a pickup and it could be from a variety of different sources, but that could be one of them.
Kelly Evans
Quickly, you mentioned hospital, I'm sorry, airports right off the top. What would, what else is at the top of the list for you right now? That's attractive.
Mark Harris
Yeah. So look, I think with higher, you know, oil prices, everybody's worried about things like toll roads. But remember that municipalities use the essential services. Water and sewer bonds aren't affected by oil prices. You know, you've got schools, you've got hospitals. So we think that you do a broad amount of research and you buy good, high quality bonds. You clip that coupon, we think rates are going to kind of stay in a range right now and that's a great time to clip that.
Kelly Evans
And I watch the miles travel data. It still looks fine. It doesn't really show much of an impact for those, those toll road holders. Mark, thanks very much. Mark Harris from Invesco today. That's it for us. Thanks for watching the Exchange and I'll go join Brian Sullivan for Power Lunch right after this break. You've been listening to the Exchange. Make sure you're subscribed to get each episode every day, same time, same place.
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Episode: "Micron’s $1T Move, Pope Leo’s AI Warning, Knicks Win & Potential Spin(off)"
Date: May 26, 2026
Host: Kelly Evans
This episode covers a whirlwind of market-moving topics, notably Micron’s historic $1 trillion valuation and the seismic changes in the memory chip industry. It also spotlights Pope Leo’s first encyclical on Artificial Intelligence and its implications for society and tech policy, examines energy and tech investment strategies amid a volatile Fed outlook, and dives into Madison Square Garden Sports' (MSG) potential Knicks/Rangers spinoff in light of their NBA Finals success. Other topics include falling consumer egg prices, speculation regarding a Tesla–SpaceX merger, and opportunities in municipal bond markets like airports.
(00:55–10:11)
Micron’s Historic Surge:
Long-Term Memory Shortages:
AI’s Transformation of Memory:
Cyclical Risks & Multiple Discrepancy:
Commoditization vs. Strategic Partner:
Notable Quote:
“If memory stocks had a market multiple [like CPUs], this [Micron] would be a $3 trillion company.”
—Kelly Evans (05:36)
(10:11–12:16)
With: Rick Santelli (CME Group)
Treasury Auction Results:
Oil, Rates & Tech/Energy Barbell Strategy
(12:14–17:38)
With: Max Wasserman (Miramar Capital)
Barbell Portfolio Approach:
Energy Picks:
Tech Positioning & Valuation Cautions:
Defensive, Income, and “Asymmetrical Returns”:
Time Frame:
Notable Exchange:
Kelly Evans (16:42): “I mean you wouldn’t buy a Micron here?”
Max Wasserman: “Then how you predict the earnings, right? How do you put a multiple on earnings you can’t really predict? If I want to go to Vegas, I’ll go to Vegas.”
(20:08–26:52)
With: Daniel Newman (Futurum Group)
Pope’s Warning on AI:
Ethical and Governing Challenges:
Regulation & Global Competition:
Anthropic’s Involvement & The Broader Message:
Notable Quote:
“We haven’t asked a lot of questions about [algorithmic feeds, social media] along the way. AI is another application. So again, it all goes back to how we use it. Do we use it for good?”
—Daniel Newman (25:22)
(28:57–31:44)
With: Brandon Gomez (CNBC Food and Wellness Reporter)
Egg Prices Plummet:
Not Uniform Across Market:
Nutritional Trends:
(34:34–39:08)
With: Charlie Berbrinskoy (Ariel Investments)
MSG Valuation Dynamics:
Valuation:
Tax Incentives:
Notable Quote:
“We think the Knicks should be privately owned… these companies don’t make a lot of money, so they don’t make a lot of sense as public companies.”
—Charlie Berbrinskoy (38:52)
(39:54–42:22)
With: Seema Modi (CNBC)
Elon Musk’s Mega-Merger Idea:
Pros & Cons:
Musk’s Other “Milestone”:
(43:08–47:07)
With: Mark Paris (Invesco)
Infrastructure Investment Case:
Muni Market’s Year-to-Date Strength:
Attractive Sectors:
Changing Fund Flows:
“The models are only limited by memory. Now how they get trained ... is all capped by memory—that's what people...are referring to, the ‘memory wall.’”
—Gil Laurier (02:15)
“If memory stocks had a market multiple [like CPUs], this [Micron] would be a $3 trillion company.”
—Kelly Evans (05:36)
"Nvidia's co-designing with these companies. This is now an integral part of the data center design. It's not interchangeable, it's not fungible. So it's not the same market.”
—Gil Laurier (06:02)
“If I want to go to Vegas, I’ll go to Vegas… Our clients are wealthy, they want to stay wealthy… Good consistent returns and control risk.”
—Max Wasserman (16:44)
“AI is... another application. So again, it all goes back to how we use it... Do we use it for good?”
—Daniel Newman (25:22)
This episode delivers a rapid-fire digest of today’s biggest business, tech, geopolitical, and investing stories—with expert analysis, real-world implications, and frank investment talk. No matter your market interest, there’s something here for you.