The Exchange – CNBC

Episode: Musk's Mega Merger, Disney's New CEO, and Walmart's New Milestone

Date: February 3, 2026
Host: Kelly Evans

Overview

This episode of The Exchange dives into seismic shifts across tech, retail, and media. The central focus is Elon Musk’s proposed mega merger between SpaceX and X (including xAI), a development poised to reshape the AI and space sectors. The show then transitions to major C-suite shakeups at Disney and Walmart, explores turmoil in fintech, and addresses the latest market volatility—particularly in tech and AI stocks.

Key Topics & Discussions

1. Musk’s Mega Merger: SpaceX and X/xAI

• Vertical Integration Vision: Musk aims to merge rockets, satellites, data compute, and AI models, creating a closed-loop infrastructure no competitor can match (02:01).
  • Deirdre Bosa outlines how this “Musk Playbook” gives him speed over regulators and lets him prioritize innovation before profitability.
  • For Silicon Valley, the story “sells itself.” For Wall Street, it’s more complicated—especially since SpaceX is cash-positive, but xAI is a heavy loss-maker (reported $10 billion loss in 2025).
• Blurring the Lines: Walter Isaacson (author of Elon Musk) highlights Musk’s penchant for “blurring distinctions between his different companies” and playing a long-term business model, funneling profitable streams into riskier bets (06:24).
• Potential IPO Concerns:
  • While an IPO had been whispered as imminent, Isaacson speculates Musk might delay it, leveraging the merged company’s private status to operate more freely (09:15).
  • Market values are fluctuating: previous reports suggested the IPO could hit $1.5T, but merging with xAI now pegs it at $1.25T.
• Tesla’s Role and Shareholder Implications:
  • Phil LeBeau explains Tesla’s current reliance on Model 3/Y for sales, the quiet success of its energy business, and why the stock is not reacting: “It’s essentially a play on three things: autonomous tech, robotics, and Musk himself” (03:54).
  • Isaacson points out Tesla’s massive investment in the merged entity, raising long-term questions about resource allocation (11:41).

Memorable Quotes

• Deirdre Bosa (02:36):
  “Control the stack, move faster than regulators, worry about economics later. This is the Musk Playbook.”
• Walter Isaacson (06:24):
  “He’s always been able to look 10, 20 years down the road, have some audacious plan like going to Mars, but then backfill it with a business model that helps fund the way there.”
• Kelly Evans (10:28):
  “Why doesn’t he just create ticker M.U.S.K. and put it all under one hold?”

2. Disney’s CEO Transition and Media Landscape

• New CEO Announcement:
  Parks head Josh D’Amaro will succeed Bob Iger as Disney CEO, effective March 18. Iger stays on as advisor and board member until year-end (12:20).
• Investor Sentiment:
  Chris Marenghi (Gabelli Funds) addresses negative FCF, tiny streaming margins, and park tourism woes but maintains optimism: “Disney is an experiences company now, 2/3 of their profits come from that business. That’s a good thing, especially as AI shakes up content creation” (14:09).
• Media Mergers Pressure:
  Netflix’s planned merger with Warner Bros Discovery is viewed by some as defensive, tying up competitors and seeking elusive scale (15:10–15:57). Senate hearings are in progress, though only regulatory authorities hold decision power.

Memorable Quotes

• Chris Marenghi (14:09):
  “What Josh D’Amaro’s elevation really underscores is that Disney is an experiences company now… and that’s a good thing, especially against the AI backdrop.”

3. Fintech Troubles: PayPal, Robinhood, and Affirm

• PayPal’s Sharp Decline:
  Q4 earnings miss and weak profit forecast send shares down 20%, with CEO Alex Kriss replaced by HP’s Enrique Lores (18:39).
  Dan Dolev (Mizuho): “There’s enormous value here, it’s obviously sort of a buy-the-dip moment. But it will take time to extract that value” (20:41).
• Sector-wide Selloff:
  Broader fintech and software stocks are dragged down by macro fears, bitcoin volatility, and investor rotation. Robinhood’s fortunes remain tightly linked to crypto swings (21:43). Affirm is the outlier:
  Dolev: “Affirm will hit it so far out of the park… They have unlimited TAM, $8 trillion… they execute best in class, especially with Amazon” (22:23).

4. Walmart Hits $1 Trillion Milestone, Welcomes New CEO

• Historic Market Cap:
  Walmart joins the $1 trillion club, doubling the XRT’s performance and now trading like a tech stock (44x forward earnings) (27:46).
• CEO John Furner’s Profile:
  Known for “servant leadership” and technological drive, Furner brings deep Walmart roots—his father worked directly with Sam Walton. He’s seen as ideally placed to continue McMillon’s legacy and steer the retailer’s tech-enabled transformation (29:38).
  • Courtney Reagan: “If there was such a thing as a perfect candidate, John Furner might be it…” (29:38).

5. AI Market Shakeouts: Nvidia, OpenAI, and Gemini

• Nvidia’s Stock Jitters:
  Pressure mounts on AI infrastructure names like Nvidia, Broadcom, and CoreWeave amid reports OpenAI is shopping for chip alternatives due to dissatisfaction with Nvidia’s latest offerings (39:23).
• Nvidia – OpenAI Rumors Debunked:
  CEO Jensen Huang calls suggestions of tension “complete nonsense” and affirms the partnership:
  Jensen Huang (39:37):
  “We love working with OpenAI. We are incredibly honored and delighted to be able to invest in their next round.”
• Broader Context:
  Gemini (Google’s LLM) is built atop non-Nvidia chips, upping competitive stakes. Investors are rotating out of 2025’s AI winners, shifting toward analog, memory, and peripheral infrastructure plays.

Notable Exchange

• Kelly Evans (41:38):
  “We’re focusing on the fight between them… but the whole story is that they together have to figure out what to do about this—the rise of Gemini.”
• Christina Partsinevelos (43:03):
  “We’ve seen a rotation outside the compute AI names… into peripheral parts of the AI infrastructure build-out like memory and storage.”

6. Market Volatility, Small Caps, and Software Reset

• Market Selloff:
  Dow reverses from an all-time high, driven by software and AI “open-air” names tumbling. VIX spikes to near 20 (45:14).
• Small Cap Rotation:
  Julie Biel (Kane Anderson Rudnick) observes breadth improving and cyclical/industrial small caps surging:
  “We’ve really transitioned into this analog world… If we have a broader market, it feels like it becomes healthier” (33:32).
  • Warns, though, against indiscriminate small-cap buying due to disparate profitability and cyclicality (35:34).
• Software in AI Era:
  Ubiquitous platforms like Salesforce struggle as investors overestimate near-term AI productivity:
  Biel: “There was a lot of promise… this agent would do all of the heavy lifting… but we’re not quite there yet. The gating factor isn’t technology, it’s ourselves and our willingness to adopt it" (37:30).

7. Additional Noteworthy Market Movers

• Gold and Silver Rally: Metals experience their best percentage gains since 2009, likely as risk-off assets amid tech swoon (25:06).
• Cisco at New Highs: CEO Chuck Robbins (26:56) addresses AI bubble concerns—sees parallels to dot-com era, but insists winners will emerge.
• Palantir Outperforms: Jeff Kilberg: “We’re seeing some indiscriminate selling across the board… but it’s a stock picker’s market” (44:29).

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Musk’s Mega Merger Discussion: 02:01–12:20
• Disney & Media Analysis: 12:20–16:21
• Fintech Focus (PayPal, Robinhood, Affirm): 18:39–23:43
• Walmart’s Trillion Dollar Milestone: 27:46–30:38
• AI & Nvidia Segment: 39:23–43:36
• Market Rotation & Small Cap Panel: 33:32–38:20
• Market Check & Analyst Insights: 44:29–47:01

Episode Takeaways

• Musk’s merger is a bold, high-stakes bet on vertical integration for the AI/space age, with major implications for Tesla and public/private markets.
• Disney and Walmart highlight how legacy giants are pivoting—Disney to experience, Walmart to tech.
• Fintech faces turbulence, but select players like Affirm shine amid the chaos.
• AI infrastructure names are under scrutiny as hyperscalers (OpenAI, Google) reevaluate their partners and platforms.
• The stock market is seeing a shift from “software is eating the world” to a renewed focus on analog, hardware, and diversified growth.

Recap of Notable Quotes

• “Control the stack, move faster than regulators, worry about economics later. This is the Musk Playbook.” — Deirdre Bosa (02:36)
• “He’s always been able to look 10, 20 years down the road, have some audacious plan like going to Mars, but then backfill it with a business model that helps fund the way there.” — Walter Isaacson (06:24)
• “Affirm will hit it so far out of the park… They have unlimited TAM, $8 trillion… they execute best in class.” — Dan Dolev (22:23)
• “If there was such a thing as a perfect candidate, John Furner might be it…” — Courtney Reagan (29:38)
• “There was a lot of promise… this agent would do all of the heavy lifting… but we’re not quite there yet. The gating factor isn’t technology, it’s ourselves.” — Julie Biel (37:30)
• “We love working with OpenAI. We are incredibly honored and delighted to be able to invest in their next round.” — Jensen Huang (39:37)

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