The Exchange (CNBC) – Podcast Summary

Episode Title: No Rate Cuts This Year, The Crude Conundrum, and Housing Catalysts
Air Date: January 14, 2026
Host: Kelly Evans

Overview

This episode dives into the prospects for interest rate cuts (with a prominent case made for none in 2026), volatile moves in oil prices amid global tensions, and new catalysts in the U.S. housing market. Featuring interviews with JP Morgan’s Michael Feroli, Laffer Tangler Investments’ Nancy Tengler, Citi’s Max Layton, and real estate mogul Ryan Serhant, the episode blends market analysis with original reporting on policy and technology.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Interest Rates: No Cuts, Not Even Close

Guest: Michael Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist, JP Morgan
Segment: [06:20–23:20]

• The Data Picture:

  • November retail sales had the largest monthly increase since July.
  • Existing home sales in December were robust.
  • PPI inflation “as expected.”
    "Core PCE inflation next week will be above 3%." (Feroli, [07:00])

• Feroli’s Outlook:

  • No rate cuts in 2026; next Fed move could be a hike in 2027.
  • Fed funds rates are not as restrictive as many believe—financial markets “are generally pretty boomy.”

    "The case that the Fed is restraining the economy with rates in the high 3s just doesn’t really...jive up with what we’re seeing." (Feroli, [08:40])

  • The “new normal” for monthly jobs growth may be as low as 0–50,000 due to demographics and immigration policy.

    "Given the new normal, 0 to 50,000 jobs a month might be enough to absorb new entrants into the labor market." (Feroli, [12:40])

  • Inflation progress is “modest but not there yet”—core PCE could end the year in the “high twos.”

    "It’s some modest progress, but not getting all the way back to the low twos." (Feroli, [21:50])

• Risks for Markets:

  • Markets still price in some probability of a cut, but policy looks set to diverge from market hopes.
  • A sudden shift to even tighter policy could "catch the market way off sides and would be a political explosion." (Evans, [15:00])
  • Investors should not assume inflation is conquered.

2. Bullishness Despite Fed Uncertainty

Guest: Nancy Tengler, CEO & CIO, Laffer Tengler Investments
Segment: [23:20–37:10]

• Productivity and Wages:

  • Productivity trends are improving ("an uptrend for productivity... analogous to the 90s").
  • Wage gains now surpass inflation.

• Fed Outlook:

  • Unconcerned about a scenario where the Fed resumes fighting inflation.
  • Probability of the Fed halting cuts and resuming hikes seen as "less than 20%."

    "I just don’t see it, Kelly...I would assign a probability of less than 20%..." (Tengler, [29:00])

  • The economy is “in transition,” and historical market norms may not apply; compares the moment to the 90s.

• Investment Approach:

  • Advocates for long-term positions, using volatility as "your friend."
  • Sector picks: Amazon, Google, AMD, Tesla, CrowdStrike, and less-covered Symbiotic.

    "During the tariff tantrum, we added to Tesla at $240, Palantir at $88, Nvidia at $108." (Tengler, [34:15])

• Bank Sector:

  • Expresses concern about ongoing regulatory uncertainty and declining corporate tax receipts as a warning sign for earnings.

3. The Oil Conundrum: Geopolitics and Supply-Side Uncertainty

Guest: Max Layton, Global Head of Commodities, Citi
Segment: [44:00–58:35]

• Market Context:

  • Oil is up 10% in the past week due to new tensions in Venezuela and Iran.
  • Brent oil could hit $70 in the next few days, WTI up to ~$67 from just under $55 recently.

    "We think Brent prices can hit $70 in the next few days…" (Layton, [45:45])

• Drivers:

  • Unfolding protests in Iran and elevated Russia/Ukraine conflict add to geopolitical risk premium.

    "The geopolitical risk premium has risen by around $5 over the last few days..." (Layton, [47:00])

  • No current disruption in major producing regions, so price gains are mostly “premium” rather than drawn from actual supply loss.

• Fundamentals:

  • “Show me the surplus”—debate remains over “real” oil demand and supply due to wide variances in third-party estimates.
  • China is absorbing minor surpluses via stockpiling.
  • Shift in Citi’s view from bearish to “above consensus neutral.”

• Comparison to Metals:

  • Metals see more persistent supply constraints and capital allocation, while oil’s spare capacity (e.g., OPEC barrels) tempers bullish scenarios.
  • Massive inflows to physical gold (almost $1T annualized, up from ~$300B in recent years).

4. Washington Watch: The Greenland Gambit

Guest: Eamon Javers, CNBC Washington Correspondent
Segment: [59:00–1:07:50]

• White House Meeting:

  • U.S. officials meet with Denmark and Greenland over American ambitions for Greenland, justified as a “national security” issue.

    President: “...I just need it psychologically. Because when, psychologically, you own a place, you can do things differently than if you don’t own it.” (quoted by Javers, [1:02:20])

  • Press conference delayed; first info may emerge from the Danish side.

• Viewpoint:

  • The White House is keen to secure control for defense infrastructure despite long-term military presence.
    • “The president said, I just, I need it psychologically...that appears to be the state of mind going into this session.” (Javers, [1:03:00])

5. Housing Sparks: Home Sales, Policy, and Builder Stocks

Guests: Diana Olick (CNBC), Ryan Serhant (CEO, Serhant Real Estate)
Segment: [1:09:00–1:22:35]

• Data Update:

  • Surge in mortgage demand after President Trump proposes $200B of mortgage-backed bond buys by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, temporarily dropping mortgage rates below 6%.

    "Refinance demand surged 40% for the week and was 128% higher than the same week one year ago." (Olick, [1:09:45])

  • Existing home sales up 5% month-over-month, 1.4% year-over-year in December.

• Inventory & Pricing:

  • Inventory drops 18% month-over-month, to a low 3.3 months supply.
  • Median sale price up 0.4% annually.

• Serhant’s Market Insights:

  • "Market is moving from frozen to functional...people weren’t stuck, they were just waiting." (Serhant, [1:13:40])
  • Rates are more attractive (Below 5% on some 5/1 ARMs); buyers are returning, but the key challenge is supply, not narrative.

    "We don’t need narratives, we don’t need stories, we don’t need ideas. We need roofs." (Serhant, [1:18:25])

  • Policy should focus on zoning reform, incentivizing builders, and unlocking frozen inventory.

• Generational Shift:

  • Gen Z/Alpha may not be as excited about mortgages; the market must address supply, not just credit conditions.
  • Cautions: “If we don’t do any of those things, we’re just treating symptoms...not the underlying disease.” (Serhant, [1:21:05])

6. Tech & Geopolitics: Nvidia, AI Chips, and US–China Tensions

Contributors: Eunice Yoon (Beijing), Deirdre Bosa (CNBC Tech)
Segment: [1:27:00–1:39:35]

• Nvidia Chip Tug of War:

  • US allows Nvidia's H200 AI chips for China under conditions—but Chinese authorities may block their import or tightly restrict usage.

    "The national security community has been warning that these chips could be used to upgrade the Chinese military..." (Yoon, [1:31:30])

  • Chinese AI leader Jeepu claims its advanced new model is trained entirely on domestic Huawei chips, raising questions about the need for Nvidia, and signaling China’s drive toward technological self-reliance.

• Strategic Implications:

  • If Chinese domestic chips prove “good enough,” Nvidia’s China business could become a bridge, not a long-term growth engine.

    "So Nvidia and other American advanced chips—nice to have for sure but less and less a need to have. So China’s strategy as volume—insiders tell me that the U.S. strategy needs to be efficiency." (Bosa, [1:36:30])

• Competitive Dynamics:

  • Western firms still seek the “best of the best” chips for frontier AI, but for many applications and markets, “good enough” chips at scale could suffice.
  • Ongoing glitches and issues in Western AI toolsets (e.g., Gemini), with shout-outs to emerging competitors like Claude.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Rate Cuts:

  "I think the case for a [rate] cut in the near term is pretty weak." — Michael Feroli, [07:15]

• On Labor Market:

  “We do have to get used to a new normal in job growth...it’s going to be with us for a while.” — Feroli, [12:50]

• On Market Volatility:

  “[We] use volatility as our friend...we’re not trading for tomorrow, we’re in for the next three to five years.” — Nancy Tengler, [34:10]

• On Oil Market:

  “Show me the surplus...Most of it’s getting absorbed by China though and most of it’s supply disruption.” — Max Layton, [54:05]

• On Housing Supply:

  "We don’t need narratives...we need roofs." — Ryan Serhant, [1:18:25]

• On U.S.–China Tech Dynamics:

  “So Nvidia and other American advanced chips—nice to have for sure but less and less a need to have.” — Deirdre Bosa, [1:36:30]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 06:20 – Feroli on inflation, rates, and labor market
• 23:20 – Tengler on productivity, macro risks & investment strategy
• 44:00 – Layton’s oil price thesis
• 59:00 – Javers on the U.S.–Greenland meeting
• 1:09:00 – Olick & Serhant on housing data and market dynamics
• 1:27:00 – Yoon & Bosa on Nvidia, China, and AI chips

Tone & Style

The episode maintains CNBC’s newsroom style: direct, analytical, with a tilt toward actionable insight. Discussions are outward-facing, focusing on what data means for investors, businesses, and policymakers.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This summary delivers the essential insights and robust context on why markets moved, how experts are interpreting macro and geopolitical themes, and what’s next for oil, housing, and tech. The episode is a must-listen for those seeking timely, in-depth perspective on rate policy, geopolitical shocks, and investment positioning in 2026.