Podcast Summary: The Exchange (CNBC)

Episode: Novo Nosedives, New AI Darlings & Buy the Former High-Flyers?
Date: November 24, 2025
Host: Dominic Chu (in for Kelly Evans)

Overview

This episode dives into the latest market movers and business headlines as the holiday season gets underway. Key themes include shifting expectations for Fed rate cuts, a deepening split in retail performance, the divergent fortunes of high-flying healthcare names, and the surging momentum behind new AI offerings from Google and Alibaba. Guests discuss what’s driving recent stock moves, whether battered tech names are bargains, and the growing role of AI regulation in Washington.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Market Sentiment

[00:52–05:14]

• Steve Liesman (Federal Reserve Update):
  • The market is increasingly betting on a December Fed rate cut, with probabilities now at 67%.
  • The Fed appears more concerned about job market weakness than inflation risk.
  • Official commentary and data support this, with John Williams (NY Fed) saying:
    "My assessment is that the downside risk to employment have increased...while the upside risk to inflation have lessened somewhat." (01:57)
  • Several Fed members remain cautious and might dissent, but the overall tone is dovish.
  • Upcoming PCE inflation data could influence the final decision, though jobs data will lag.
  • The market could see further tailwinds if a rate cut is delivered or strongly telegraphed.

Memorable Quote:
"One way dissenters could be convinced ... would be [if the] Fed positioned themselves for a January pause." — Steve Liesman [03:52]

• Dominic Chu & Steve Sosnik (Market Reaction and Macro):
  • Markets have pivoted in sentiment—"the mojo has changed"—after recent Fed commentary. [06:26]
  • Bitcoin's and stocks' correlation, termed "nasty," reflects broader risk appetite swings tied to Fed expectations.
  • The market seems to "need" a Fed rate cut for further gains:
    "Like it or not, the stock market is very dependent upon that." — Steve Sosnik [07:46]
  • Fundamentals (such as dividend stocks with strong cash flow) should be prioritized, especially as leverage remains a risk in volatile asset classes like crypto.

2. Health Care: Novo Nordisk Plummet & Eli Lilly's Rise

[11:20–14:45]

• Novo Nordisk drops 6% after Alzheimer’s trial disappointment, hitting a four-year low. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly soars to a $1 trillion market cap.
• Evan Sagerman (BMO Capital Markets):
  • Lilly is consistently outperforming due to better execution, while Novo faces internal headwinds and could become a "value trap".
  • On relative valuation:
    "If you want a value trade in healthcare, go elsewhere besides Lilly." — Evan Sagerman [13:31]
  • Top picks outside GLP-1 drugs include Gilead Sciences (HIV leadership) and smaller biotech/hematology names.
  • Investors should be wary of chasing value in Novo solely because of its underperformance.

3. The Holiday Retail Bifurcation

[16:38–21:36]

• Steve Sadov (Former Saks CEO):
  • The U.S. consumer remains resilient, with ~4% consumption growth and a robust outlook for the holiday season.
  • There’s a pronounced "K economy" or split:
    • Higher-income consumers continue strong spending (luxury, premium retailers).
    • Lower-end consumers are stretched, gravitating toward value and off-price retailers (e.g., Walmart, Costco, TJX).
  • Execution in value and innovation is key. Walmart and Costco are attracting affluent customers and competing on multiple fronts, including fashion and membership.
  • Department stores and certain mid-tier players are losing share to off-price and value-focused formats.
  • The convergence of consumer segments is most apparent at retailers offering both price and innovation.

Memorable Quote:
"We had about a .9 R square between the stock market and luxury sales." — Steve Sadov [17:29]

4. Bitcoin’s Sell-Off and Risk Sentiment

[23:22–25:47]

• Mackenzie Segalos (CNBC Crypto Reporter):
  • Despite a mild rebound, Bitcoin remains fragile. ETFs are experiencing record outflows, with analysts warning of self-reinforcing downward momentum: "For every $1 billion pulled from the ETFs, Bitcoin falls about 3.4%." — Citi estimate [24:09]
  • The risk-off environment extends to crypto, which is behaving more like a high-beta tech stock and closely tracking the NASDAQ 100.
  • Some institutional buyers stepped in as Bitcoin held the $80,000 level, but broader participation is lacking.

5. Are Former High-Flyers Bargains?

[28:56–34:49]

• Victoria Green (G Squared Private Wealth):
  • Oracle (ORCL):
    • Down 23% in November but still up YTD; remains a buy due to AI investments and manageable leverage.
    • “You want a growth company pursuing growth during transformative times like this.” [29:45]
  • Palantir (PLTR):
    • Down nearly 20% this month, but a leader in government and commercial AI, with strong revenue growth. Also a buy.
    • “They are the leader in software and they’re going to modernize…maybe modernize the US Government.”
  • Robinhood (HOOD):
    • Down 23% this month, but not just a "crypto play"—growing in options, equities, prediction markets, and sports betting. Still bullish.
  • DoorDash (DASH):
    • Down 26%, but a hold (not a buy) due to questions about growth sustainability and increased competition, including the impact of AI on its platform.

6. AI Race: Google's Gemini and Alibaba's Qwen

[35:59–38:28]

• Deirdre Bosa (CNBC Tech Reporter):
  • Big story: Breakout chatbot products (Google's Gemini, Alibaba's Qwen) from companies with full-stack systems—models, infra, data, distribution.
  • Both stocks have roughly doubled in the past year, but Alibaba trades at a much lower forward P/E.
  • The China vs. U.S. AI race is characterized by efficiency versus heavy investment, with U.S. tech’s collective market cap 10x China's. “It really comes down to this question—what is the global AI system going to be built on? Is it going to be on the American stack or the Chinese stack?” [37:24]
  • Opportunity for further rerating in Chinese AI players if they can continue to innovate efficiently.

7. The Battle Over AI Regulation

[39:06–42:00]

• Emily Wilkins (CNBC):
  • $10 million campaign from Build American AI (supported by leading Silicon Valley figures and VCs) launches to push for a national AI regulatory framework—seeking to pre-empt a patchwork of state laws.
  • The White House is preparing executive action to pressure states on AI regulation if Congress can’t enact comprehensive federal rules.
  • Competing priorities: Should progress be led by the states while federal standards lag, or pause state-level actions until federal rules are clear?
    • "We should eventually have a federal AI standard. I strongly agree with that. But…should we stop the states from making any progress before the feds have solved the problem?" — NY Assemblyman Alex Borres [40:26]

8. Sales Tax Bonds and Holiday Shopping’s Impact

[42:59–46:17]

• Dan Close (Nuveen):
  • Every holiday transaction (in states with sales tax) generates cash for municipal infrastructure through sales tax bonds.
  • These bond types are increasingly important, especially in states relying more on sales tax due to lack of income taxes.
  • Investors focus on debt service coverage, tax pledge breadth, and resilience to shocks when selecting these bonds.
  • Sales tax rates and structures vary widely state to state.

Notable Quotes

• "The stock market is very dependent upon [Fed rate cut expectations]." — Steve Sosnik [07:46]

• "Lilly will continue to outperform…Novo could become a value trap versus a value play." — Evan Sagerman [13:31]

• "You want a growth company pursuing growth during transformative times like this." — Victoria Green, on Oracle [29:45]

• "What is the global AI system going to be built on? The American stack or the Chinese stack?" — Deirdre Bosa [37:24]

• "We should eventually have a federal AI standard. But…should we stop the states from making any progress before the feds have solved the problem?" — NY Assemblyman Alex Borres [40:26]

Timestamps: Important Segments

• Fed Rate Cut Outlook / Macro: [00:52–05:14], [06:26–11:20]
• Healthcare Divergence: Novo vs. Lilly: [11:20–14:45]
• Retail Bifurcation and Consumer Health: [16:38–21:36]
• Bitcoin, Crypto, and Risk Factors: [23:22–25:47]
• Tech High-Flyers: Buy or Hold?: [28:56–34:49]
• AI Competition: Gemini vs. Qwen: [35:59–38:28]
• AI Regulation Moves: [39:06–42:00]
• Sales Tax Bonds & Holiday Shopping: [42:59–46:17]

Episode Tone

The tone is analytical and cautious-yet-optimistic, mixing Wall Street pragmatism with curiosity about disruptive innovation (AI, crypto, changing consumer habits). Both guests and hosts keep the discussion accessible but data-driven, making big macro themes relevant to listeners' investment decision-making.

For listeners: This episode is a one-stop snapshot of November’s major economic, tech, and market trends—providing actionable perspectives for both professionals and lay investors as the year winds down.