Podcast Summary: CNBC’s The Exchange — “Nvidia on Deck, Muddy Waters’ New Long Position & Read on Retail”

Date: November 19, 2025
Host: John Ford (in for Kelly Evans)

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on three main themes shaping the current market moment: anticipation for Nvidia’s critical earnings update amid AI investment fever, a rare long call from short seller Carson Block (Muddy Waters Capital) on Snowline Gold, and a status check on the pulse of retail as major companies report earnings. The show delivers expert market insight, exclusive interviews, and breaking news—from White House jabs at the Fed to Goldman Sachs’ view on the AI investment cycle.

Key Discussion Points

1. Nvidia Earnings and the AI Trade

• Setup for Earnings

  • Nvidia is pivotal for the AI market and broader indices (8% of S&P 500, 10% of Nasdaq 100).
  • New details on a partnership with AI startup Humane: a massive GPU commitment spanning Saudi Arabia and the US to offset vanished China revenue, as countries focus on “sovereign AI” infrastructure (01:46).
  • Options markets are signaling a significant move (~6%, or $300B in market value), while traders are positioning mostly for upside.

• Panel Discussion

  • Low Tony (Plexo Capital):

    • “A beat is a meet. If they meet their numbers, that might be perceived as a miss.” (04:01)
    • The durability of AI demand is key; “digest” is the word investors don’t want to hear, as it hints at slowdown.
    • Massive infrastructure spend (~$3T over 5 years), with only half likely fundable from tech cash flows—the rest via debt (06:49).
    • The future AI landscape will belong to efficient, durable enterprise applications, not just training.

  • Jay Goldberg (Seaport Global Securities):

    • Only analyst with a Sell rating on Nvidia currently: “There’s a lot more that can go wrong for Nvidia than can go right.” (05:08)
    • Believes we’re nearing the top of the current semiconductor cycle: “At some point next year...things need to...digest.”
    • Notes growing risk as major cloud players (hyperscalers) invest in their own AI chip designs—Amazon’s Trainium, Google’s TPU, Meta and possibly Microsoft (10:39).

  • Deirdre Bosa (Tech Update/Timestamp 08:53):

    • Google’s latest AI model was trained entirely on its custom TPU chips, not Nvidia’s—a “first at this level.”
    • Broad industry diversification: Shopify, Anthropic (committing to 1 million TPUs), Apple, Meta, and OpenAI all increasingly use non-Nvidia silicon.
    • Suggests Nvidia’s dominance may erode over time, as hyperscalers build fully integrated stacks.

  • Low Tony (On Ecosystem Insulation):

    • Predicts a “mixture” world: hyperscaler custom chips for proprietary use cases, Nvidia for customers’ varied workloads (12:03).
    • Nvidia’s committed ecosystem provides resilience but is no guarantee if demand softens or custom chip performance improves.

2. White House Breaking News: Tensions Over the Fed

• Eamonn Javers Reporting (13:47):
  • President Trump, in remarks at the Saudi Investment Forum, issued unusually sharp public criticism of both Fed Chair Jay Powell (“he's got some real mental problems”) and Treasury Secretary Scott Besant (“if you don’t get it fixed fast, I’m going to fire your ass”).
  • “Hard to tell if the president was joking...Sometimes he does these jokes which have a little edge to them, and it voices the frustration under the surface there.”
  • Notable intra-administration tension; first time Trump publicly criticizes Besant this way.

3. Carson Block’s (Muddy Waters) Rare Long: Snowline Gold Corp

• Interview with John Ford (19:04):
  • Carson Block: Known for legendary short calls, now bullish on Canadian gold explorer Snowline Gold after presenting at the SON Conference in London.
  • Shares up as much as 21% during the segment.
  • “Snowline is what we think is a true tier one discovery that is going to unlock a whole gold district there. We don’t find any reason to question the resource estimates.” (19:17)
  • Believes a major miner will acquire the company—“We don’t think this company is independent, you know, in three years from now, quite possibly bought out before then” (19:04), with multi-billon CAD upside potential even if gold prices fall.
  • Gold mining context: Majors have stopped greenfield exploration post-financial crisis. New deposit discoveries are exceptionally rare (“in the 1990s...1.7B ounces...this decade on track for only 60M ounces” 21:00).
  • Stands by past short theses such as Applovin (“they’re cheating and...violating terms...But we’re in an environment where anything that calls itself AI...can do no wrong”). (24:17)

4. Retail Earnings and Consumer Health

• Melissa Repko Interview (40:16):
  • TJX (parent of TJ Maxx) stands out as a winner, with strong value-seeking traffic and fresh inventory.
  • “TJX’s opportunity is really as consumers make trade offs; they’re going to its stores to try to find those better deals.” (40:16)
  • Broader pattern: even higher-income consumers are cautious; Lowe’s, Home Depot see hesitance on big ticket projects.
  • All eyes on Walmart earnings next, as it provides the broadest read (exposure to both SNAP-affected shoppers and higher-income households).

5. Goldman Sachs: AI Investment—Bubble or Business as Usual?

• Leslie Picker interviews Kim Posner, Co-Head of GS Investment Banking (29:54):
  • On the AI “bubble” question: “I think that AI will be absolutely transformative and value creating across industries over time...but it’s much greater scale, it’s much faster, and there’s much, much broader applicability.” (30:14)
  • GS research: Historically, tech innovation triggers equity bubbles 75% of the time, but “we aren’t in an AI bubble yet.” Still, “it’s still too early to tell...time will tell.”
  • Debt issuance by hyperscalers is massive, but credit metrics and balance sheet strength are robust; only modest spread widening for now (32:20).
  • Strategic alliances between model companies and hyperscalers: “Strategic partnerships…are merited because of the size of the opportunity. Others would argue interconnectedness creates elevated risk—especially in the event of a correction.” (33:34)
  • Upbeat on M&A and IPO rebound: CEO confidence driven by “pro-growth US administration, continuing Fed easing, robust equity markets, and AI as a growth catalyst.”

6. Industrial AI Derivatives: Caterpillar’s Boom

• Sima Modi Report (43:23):
  • Caterpillar is the Dow’s top performer over the last three months, benefiting from the race to build hyperscaler data centers.
  • “It’s the hyperscalers that are lining up” for Cat’s generators and turbines; sales up 31% in the past year.
  • The energy/transport segment now 40% of sales thanks to AI power demand.
  • Watch-outs: inventory lags, demand lumpiness, speculative buildouts may risk future pullbacks.

Notable Quotes and Moments

• “A beat is a meet. If they meet their numbers, that actually might be perceived as a miss.”
  — Low Tony, 04:01, on Nvidia’s high bar of expectations

• “There’s a lot more that can go wrong for Nvidia than can go right. There’s just so many...expectations built on top of them now that it’s hard to surprise people to the upside.”
  — Jay Goldberg, 05:08

• “Google’s latest AI model was trained entirely on GPUs—and not Nvidia's GPUs. That’s a first at this level.”
  — Deirdre Bosa, 08:53, on Google’s TPU announcement

• “We don’t want to hear the word ‘digest’ because that means there’s a slowing down so that the hyperscalers can actually make sense of all their commitments.”
  — Low Tony, 04:49

• Carson Block on gold’s importance:
  “In the 1990s, there were gold discoveries of about 1.7 billion ounces. So far this decade...we’re on track for discoveries of only 60 million ounces. ...the majors need to acquire companies like Snowline.” (20:48)

• President Trump, on Fed Chair Powell & Treasury Secretary Besant:
  “He’s got some real mental problems...Scott, if you don’t get it fixed fast, I’m going to fire your ass.”
  — Reported by Eamonn Javers, 13:47

• Goldman Sachs’s Kim Posner, on the AI bubble:
  “Despite many similarities, they found that we weren’t in an AI bubble yet. Now, I think it’s still too early to tell.” — 30:14

Timestamps of Important Segments

• [01:03] Nvidia earnings preview & market impact
• [01:46] Nvidia’s Sovereign AI deals; options market set-up
• [04:01] Panel: What would “calm” markets for Nvidia really look like?
• [08:53] Google’s AI chip (TPU) challenge, implications for Nvidia
• [10:39] Forecasts of hyperscalers eroding Nvidia’s dominance
• [13:47] TRUMP: Breaking news, public rebuke of Powell & Besant
• [19:04] Carson Block’s bullish case on Snowline Gold
• [24:17] Block on Applovin, AI’s current investor “euphoria”
• [29:54] Goldman Sachs on AI bubble; Lesley Picker interviews Kim Posner
• [40:16] Retail read: Melissa Repko on TJX, Walmart, Target, Lowe’s
• [43:23] Caterpillar’s AI-fueled performance surge

Conclusion

This episode captures the market’s current AI obsession—both opportunity and fragility. Nvidia’s pivotal earnings, the debate over sustainable AI demand, and analogs to past tech cycles set the tone. Meanwhile, “classic value” in retail and mining (from TJX to Snowline Gold) shows investors seeking shelter or new opportunity outside pure tech. With strategic catalyst moments just ahead—Nvidia’s print, Walmart’s retail bellwether, and signals from AI’s capital stack—the next few days were framed as critical for the late-year market turn.

For more in-depth reporting and live coverage of the coming earnings and market events, visit cnbc.com/pro.