OpenAI Announcements, Crypto Under Pressure & Rivian's New Chip 12/11/25

Summary

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The Exchange (CNBC)

Episode: OpenAI Announcements, Crypto Under Pressure & Rivian's New Chip
Date: December 11, 2025
Host: Kelly Evans

Episode Overview

This episode of The Exchange dives into a pivotal day for technology and markets: OpenAI’s major new releases and Disney partnership, the shifting tides in the AI and crypto markets, fresh moves in custom chipmaking from Rivian, and the latest investment landscape as the year draws to a close. Host Kelly Evans and a diverse roster of reporters and guests unpack the competitive battle in AI, the outlook and practicalities of cryptocurrency investing, and the strategic bets happening in the EV and chip sectors. Real-world market impacts—ranging from Google, Broadcom, Rivian and Disney, to small-cap records and the Santa Claus rally—provide a throughline for timely business insights.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. OpenAI’s Announcements and Disney Partnership

Timestamps: [01:04] – [05:58], [07:16] – [14:55], [35:35] – [39:57], [42:32] – [47:18]

Release of GPT-5.2 & “Code Red”

• OpenAI unveiled GPT-5.2 as its “most advanced frontier model yet for everyday professional use”—improved for long, multi-step tasks (coding, spreadsheets, document analysis) with fewer hallucinations; available to both consumers and via API ([01:21]–[02:10]).
• Announced alongside a $1 billion investment and a content deal with Disney.
• The “Code Red” is described less as a crisis, more as OpenAI’s way of focusing resources amid competition, particularly from Google ([01:21], [03:05]).
• Quote (Mackenzie Segalos, [01:21]):
  “Code Red ... is actually a normal part of the company’s playbook, essentially marshaling resources around one key priority.”

Disney Partnership

• OpenAI and Disney’s Sora signed a non-exclusive, three-year content deal, allowing users to generate videos with up to 200 Disney characters—but NOT their likeness or voices ([03:05], [42:32]).
• Disney’s Bob Iger stresses this protects, not threatens, creative IP ([42:47]).
• Quote (Bob Iger, [42:53]):
  “In fact, the opposite. I think it honors them and respects them in part because there’s a license fee associated with it.”

Enterprise Focus and Competitive Landscape

• OpenAI is pivoting from consumer-first to enterprise, seeking profitability in line with rival Anthropic ([04:36], [07:16]).
  • Anthropic generates 85% of revenue from enterprises, outpacing OpenAI.
  • Fiji Simo (ex-Meta, now at OpenAI) is seen as key to monetizing AI products, with ads sidelined “for now.”
  • Quote (Alex Kantrowitz, [07:16]):
    “OpenAI is now taking a strategic pivot … now they’re all in on enterprise.”
• Comparison with Google’s Gemini 3—Gemini makes gains via distribution and integration, not necessarily a better model per se ([08:39]).
• Quote (Alex Kantrowitz, [08:39]):
  “It’s not necessarily a model battle, it’s a distribution battle.”
• User experiences debated: ChatGPT’s “thinking mode” is slower/more resource-intensive; Gemini is praised for rapid responses, but real-world performance of new models still being assessed ([09:30]).
• Quote (Kelly Evans, [09:58]):
  “The user experience with Gemini is it’s instantaneous ... ChatGPT, you’re paying $20 a month for a model that right now ... takes literally several minutes.”

Guardrails and User-Generated Content

• Disney’s deal seen as establishing safer standards for IP holders faced with AI-generated user content ([43:20] onwards).
• Analysts suggest other rights holders will likely follow.
• Quote (Jim Stewart, [44:21]):
  “They’re putting a toe into ... a whole new market area: user-generated content.”

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2. Chips and Custom Silicon: Broadcom & Rivian

Timestamps: [14:55] – [18:35], [35:35] – [41:50]

Broadcom’s AI Chip Momentum

• Broadcom is seeing surging demand (up 25% in two months) due to custom AI chips (TPUs), especially for Google’s Gemini models. Other major clients: Meta, Apple, Anthropic ([14:55]).
• The AI revenue growth projection: 56% by fiscal 2027; expected inflection in 2H 2026 with large Anthropic contracts ([15:57]).
• Oracle’s move to “chip neutrality” benefits Broadcom.
• Analyst note: Much of Broadcom’s growth may be redistributing revenue between existing customers rather than opening net-new opportunities.

Rivian’s AV Chip & AI Day

• Rivian unveiled their in-house custom AV (autonomous vehicle) chip, moving away from Nvidia to own vertical integration, enable better performance and control costs ([35:35]).
• CEO RJ Scaringe argues the long-term value is in controlling both hardware and proprietary driving algorithms—major R&D investment going into self-driving ([36:12], [37:07]).
• Company is targeting “personal Level 4 autonomy” for now, with ridesharing/robotaxi a possibility later.
• Quote (RJ Scaringe, [37:07]):
  “[We’re] building technology to enable very high levels of self driving … This is where we’re spending a very significant part of our R&D dollars.”
• Despite the tech debut, shares are down 9% as analysts question Rivian's ability to sustain innovation at scale ([35:52], [37:07]).

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3. Crypto Under Pressure & The Future of Digital Assets

Timestamps: [19:57] – [25:48]

Market Sentiment and New ETF Launch

• Crypto markets are soft: Bitcoin is down 20% in three months, recently below $90k ([19:57]).
• Hunter Horsley (CEO, Bitwise Asset Management) introduces the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW), enabling diverse crypto exposure. Bitwise has $15B AUM ([20:36]).
• Fund screens assets for market cap, liquidity, and regulatory filters—explicitly avoided problematic assets like Terra Luna.
• Quote (Hunter Horsley, [21:38]):
  “It’s not as simple as pulling up a website like CoinMarketCap and just taking the top 10 assets. We have to screen assets for things like market cap and liquidity and regulatory considerations.”
• Despite retail profit-taking, institutions and major financial advisors are increasing exposure; some are even adjusting classic ‘60/40’ stock/bond portfolios to include crypto ([24:00]).

Outlook

• Horsley sees crypto’s asset class status shifting from “backwater” to “front and center alternative”; Bitwise expects new all-time highs in 2026, driven by adoption, stablecoins, tokenization, and favorable policy ([24:34], [24:48]).
• Quote (Hunter Horsley, [24:48]):
  “I think we will find ourselves [at new highs] even next year.”

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4. Markets Roundup & 2026 Investment Outlook

Timestamps: [27:40] – [35:17], [31:12] – [35:17]

• Dow hits record highs, small caps surge, but Nasdaq and crypto underperform—reflecting portfolio rebalancing following Fed liquidity measures ([27:40], [31:12]).
• Chris Heisey (Merrill/Bank of America): 2026 = the “year of a proud bull” (markets moving modestly, profit growth over multiple expansion, less euphoria than late 2020–2021).
  • Small and mid-caps overweight; overweight in equities overall ([33:33]).
  • Fed's approach signaled “risk-on” but expects more volatility, especially in tech/growth sectors ([33:39], [34:30]).
• Profit taking in crowded tech/semiconductor sectors is fueling rotations into small/mid-caps, financials, and emerging markets.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On OpenAI’s Direction:
  “Enterprise is where revenue is ... OpenAI has been behind.” — Mackenzie Segalos ([04:36])

• ChatGPT vs. Gemini:
  “The fact that we can’t tell [which is better] is really telling. And that’s why OpenAI has hit this lever ... when things are commoditized, it comes down ... to distribution and ... applications.” — Alex Kantrowitz ([13:19])

• AI IP Paradox:
  “It’s ironic ... a company with very valuable IP now owns a stake in a company everyone’s concerned is going to destroy the value of that IP.” — Kelly Evans ([44:59])

• Chips Arms Race:
  “The process of developing a chip is not something you take lightly ... but it allows us to build a more efficient system [and] get to much higher levels of performance at a very affordable cost.” — RJ Scaringe, Rivian ([36:12])

• Crypto’s Institutional Surge:
  “We had more wealth management firms and institutions buy a product than any time in our eight year history.” — Hunter Horsley, Bitwise ([23:15])

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Important Timestamps for Key Segments

| MM:SS | Segment | |-------|----------------------------------------------| | 01:04 | OpenAI “Code Red” announcement, GPT-5.2 rollout, Disney deal | | 03:05 | Discussion on enterprise focus; Sora partnership and implications | | 07:16 | Analyst roundtable: OpenAI vs. Gemini, enterprise pivot | | 14:55 | Broadcom chip momentum, AI chip demand & custom silicon | | 19:57 | Crypto under pressure, Bitwise CEO on new ETF | | 24:48 | Crypto outlook for 2026, institutional adoption | | 31:12 | Market rally analysis, 2026 investment preview (Chris Heisey) | | 35:35 | Rivian’s AI Day: custom chip, AV ambitions, CEO interview | | 42:32 | Disney/OpenAI deal in Hollywood IP context; media industry response |

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Conclusions & Takeaways

• AI is at a strategic crossroads between model innovation and practical business application, with OpenAI and Google locked in a near-commodity race—distribution, integration, and enterprise sales now matter as much as model quality.
• IP protection is going mainstream for AI: The Disney-OpenAI deal heralds a potential wave of controlled licensing to address creative industry anxieties while opening the door to user-generated content.
• Crypto is entering a new adoption phase, with ETFs enabling mainstream and institutional investment even as the retail market cools.
• In chips, control and specialization are the new battlegrounds, with everyone from Broadcom to Rivian moving to own or shape their hardware futures as AI workloads explode.
• Markets are shifting: Tech leadership is being challenged by a rotation into small/mid-caps and broader asset classes as 2026 approaches, profit-taking is fueling new winners, and investors are bracing for a different environment—less boom, more resilient bull.

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Transcript

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Thank you very much Scott. When OpenAI declared code red, we're now getting a sense of what that means. First, a major partnership with Disney announced earlier today. Welcome to the Exchange, by the way, I'm Kelly Evans and right now, more breaking news on the ChatGPT front. Let's get straight to Mackenzie Segalos with the details.

[D]

Mak hey Kelly, so OpenAI has just unveiled GPT 5.2, which it's billing as its most advanced frontier model yet for everyday professional use. Better things like long multi step tasks such as coding, spreadsheets, document analysis with far fewer hallucinations, according to the engineers who built it. Now it's rolling out both in the consumer chatbot and via the API for enterprise customers. It also lands, as you said, on the same day as a new billion dollar investment and Sora content deal with Disney Fiji SEMA, one of OpenAI's high profile hires out of Metta, told a small group of us a short time ago that this recently declared Code Red is actually a normal part of the company's playbook, essentially marshaling resources around one key priority. Simo said that this release has been months in the making, but I will say this Kelly under the hood Code Red. This new phase of the company looks more like incremental tune ups than moonshot bets. GPT 5.2 is a faster, smarter update, but it's not GPT 6 and it's not the kind of step change that we saw with Google's Gemini 3. It's also not immediately obvious how $1 billion and a couple hundred Disney characters in Sora remains really change that core model race that it is fighting against Google. But Altman actually made the case on our air this morning that the real bet here is on owning more of the stack, including an in house AI chip that he says should drive down the cost per token. That's currently our best proxy for what it costs to run these models.

[A]

Kelly, what else would you add? Mackenzie I just logged on to see if I can use 5.2 and I don't see it yet. I also noted that I thought Sam's energy maybe I'm reading too much into this, but was a little flat in his interview earlier today.

[D]

I mean, these are the two big announcements that they've made since declaring this code red last Monday in that internal memo. And we're seeing a $1 billion equity investment which is a drop in the bucket compared to the $1.4 trillion worth of compute commitments that Sam Altman made. And then we're seeing an incremental update to the model. Now they say that this does still beat Gemini 3 on some of those key benchmarking tests, especially where agen AI capabilities are concerned. But people are looking for something bigger. This is their 10 year anniversary today and they've certainly come a long way since those routes as a, as a scrappy research lab. But I think that, I think that people are looking for more on the product front. And what I will say with Sora is that this is still a gated experience that is very expensive to run. Something that Sam Altman was asked about on our air this morning and he made the point that it's a freemium model. People will pay for the kind of video generation that this new partnership will lead to. But keep in mind, Kelly, this is not an exclusive deal. Bob Iger teased at the fact that only one of the three year commitment that this IP content deal entails will actually be exclusive to Open Air. So there's a question as to whether other players like Google might ultimately strike a deal with them. Yes, they're at the cease and desist phase right now, but that could lend itself to a formal partnership.

[A]

Why are they saying this is a model for professional use? Does that mean that I as however, I mean, look, I'm a paying user of their $20 a month. My husband is too, although he's kind of talking about dropping that and going over to Gemini. So why are they emphasizing that this 5.2 model is for professional use?

[D]

Because enterprise is where revenue is and that's something where OpenAI has been behind. They have a roughly 7030 split in favor of consumer adoption versus anthropic, which has been focused singularly on the enterprise customer. From the outset, 85% of their revenue comes from that enterprise customer. And that's why you've seen that they're on a path to profitability. I where they'll reach that sooner than open, I will. And so by releasing this new model that apparently is more competitive with that enterprise customer, it's additive to revenue in a way that focusing on the consumer is not. And Fiji Simo, remember, she is this new flashy hire that they made to oversee all product development at Metta. She was very innovative in the way that she monetized ads around a social media strategy. And that's part of why Altman brought her in house to do the same thing, but for the AI era.

[A]

Right.

[D]

And she was asked explicitly whether or not they were going to do ads or whether this, you know, whether this new partnership would be additive to their, to their new revenue structure. And she said, we're sidelining ads for now. It's not a priority at this point. So they've got to look to make money somewhere. And that's enterprise.

[A]

So will I be able to use, Will the public broadly be able to use this 5.2 and if so, when?

[D]

Yes, they will. Imminently it'll be added. So from that dropdown menu where you see different model options, it'll be added there. But I asked for a demo myself so I could try it out before speaking to you today, and they said not yet.

[A]

Yeah, I keep refreshing. So when I, when I see it pop up, I'll put it to the test with Gemini. Mackenzie, really appreciate you bringing us that news. Thank you. Mackenzie Segalos. As you just saw, Google shares are lower on the session, but not in response to that headline. They've kind of been flat since that news just came out. Which also may tell you something, as the larger race to have the best AI platform has really come down to these two players. ChatGPT vs Google's Gemini Remember, OpenAI kicked off this race back when it launched ChatGPT 3.5 in November of 2022. Gemini didn't come along until 13 months later, but with Gemini 3 last month, it's now almost nearly caught up. Alphabet says there are 650 million monthly active users on the Gemini app. OpenAI said earlier this week ChatGPT has 800 million weekly users. So although Chad Beat still has more, the momentum behind Gemini can't be overstated. When the CEO of a major tech company declares you the winner, that raises the bar. To quote Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff, I've used ChatGPT every day for 3 years. Just spent 2 hours on Gemini 3. I'm not going back. And that was just a couple of weeks ago. For more, let's bring in Alex Cantrowicz, the founder of Big Technology and a CNBC contributor, and Gil Luria, who is an analyst at D.A. davidson. Welcome to both of you. Alex, how significant are the OpenAI announcements today?

[B]

They're pretty significant, and that is because OpenAI is now taking a strategic pivot in a way where they were previously really focused on on consumer. Now they're all in on enterprise. I have some reporting that earlier this week, Sam Altman sat with heads of New York publications and told them that enterprise is going to be a massive priority for OpenAI in 2026. My read on it is basically OpenAI kept trying to make its model smarter and thinking by doing that, you know, you wouldn't really have to build out an application base for companies. And now they're coming to the realization that the model's intelligence is improving, but they're actually going to have to focus on building applications for enterprise, and that's where they're heading.

[A]

Why, Alex, are we talking about enterprise at all? It seems to me that the fundamental point is Anyone who uses Gemini 3 is getting a better experience than anyone who uses, you know, chat GPT 5.1.

[B]

Okay, I disagree with that. I think ChatGPT, the latest models, are.

[A]

That is the disagreement, though I don't think it matters whether we're talking specifically about applications for enterprise. We're just talking about literally who has the better model. And as you know, from using ChatGPT, the thinking mode takes forever. I just go to rapid mode. My stuff isn't that, you know, isn't, you know, life or death. So isn't the issue who has the better model? And right now the marketplace is saying it's probably Gemini.

[B]

So I would say it absolutely isn't who has the better model right now. I think right now what matters is what you do with that model and how you distribute it. And the numbers for Gemini are really good. We just had it up on screen. 600 million users compared to ChatGPT's 800 or 900 million that they're getting close to. The reason why Google's been able to catch up the way they have is because they have distribution. Google CEO Sundar Pichai started out at Google working on the Google Toolbar, which he was able to distribute through partnerships built Chrome. Sundar is the king of distribution. And so even if Google's model is at par or even a little worse than open AI. That is the challenge is the fact that it's not necessarily a model battle, it's a distribution model. Distribution battle. Once the models get close enough and the models are close enough. So you see Google relying on. All right, go ahead.

[A]

I agree with you, but I disagree that we're there. Well, Gil, what do you think? Do you. So again, I'm just going to the user experience. The user experience with Gemini is it's instantaneous. A lot of Google users, I don't know if it's built in because we have the mega plan. You're not really paying for it, ChatGPT. You're paying $20 a month for a model that right now you have to toggle over to thinking mode every time you want that result. The result takes literally several minutes or you get the auto result, which is viewed as inferior as what Gemini can give you instantaneously.

[B]

So these are all important things, right? The quality of the model and its theoretical form is important. I agree with Alex. There's not that much of a difference. And by the time we all get to use 5.2, we're probably going to experience something that's slightly better than Gemini. But then there's a lot of other factors. On the corporate side, there's how good is this for using it for coding, which, by the way, the winner is a third entity, which is anthropic on the chat side. To your point, Kelly, it's how user friendly is it? Do I get access to the right model at the right time? Which is a user experience design issue. It's also a compute issue. Google has a lot more compute. OpenAI is still struggling to get compute because it needs capital to buy that compute and it doesn't always have it accessible. So all of these things are important in this race. But again, let's not forget anthropic and let's not forget that we're so early in this race. GROK will have something to say. Meta will have something to say. And on the corporate side, Microsoft and Amazon will make sure that they're participating in these markets as well. We're really early on, too early to crown anybody. But it is really important to note that as we sit here today with OpenAI having 5.2 out, Gemini is no longer the best model. It's not the best model overall. It's not.

[A]

Do you know that for a fact? Do you know that? Do you know that just by releasing 5.2 that it's automatically superior? To Gemini. Again, I can't even get it to load, so I can't use it to tell you what the user experience is like.

[B]

Our team has had some early access to it and has talked to some people that had early access and they concluded that it is better. By the way, Gemini wasn't a lot better than 5.1 in its optimal state. So the fact that 5.2 left over Gemini is not that big of a deal. It's actually is a very incremental improvement. But until consumers like you get to use the full model and have full access to it and the compute available to run it, consumers may not realize that.

[A]

Does it still use gil? Does it still offer you thinking mode and still take a few minutes to generate that response? Or is it more like Gemini where it's just automatic?

[B]

Well, as soon as OpenAI moved to 5.1, it's actually doing some air traffic control. It's trying to assess based on your question whether it needs to go into deep thinking or whether it can ask quickly. And again, that goes back to available compute. If they had all the compute that same wanted, they would always allow you to ask hard questions, put a lot of resources and answer them quickly. But because they don't have all the compute they need, they have to try to guess if you're asking a quick question or if you're asking an in depth question that you're willing to wait for. And that's part of the challenge that OpenAI is going to have, right?

[A]

If you leave it on default. But if you as the user force it, you can force it into thinking mode to get the superior result, but it takes a while. So, Alex, the reason why we're dwelling on this is because their entire revenue stream depends on it. If you can get for free through. Most users already have some kind of Google plan they're paying for. So if you can get Gemini for free, ChatGPT has to be that much better to make you go out of your way to pay $20 a month in order to have the same privilege. You could just go over and use at Gemini for effectively nothing.

[B]

That's right. And I think that's why OpenAI is in this code red. Look, the discussion that we're having is ChatGPT or Gemini, which one's the better model? The fact that we can't tell is really telling. And that's why OpenAI has hit this lever. It's because when things are commoditized, it comes down. Price just mentioned, it comes down to distribution and it comes down to how you can turn those into applications. And I think that is why we're going to see a massive race heat up now because the models have become so close together that now companies will start to lean on their strengths and their ability to leverage what they have over others. And that will determine where we're going to go here, not necessarily the model quality.

[A]

Quickly, before we go, Alex, which one do you use?

[B]

I'm all in on ChatGPT. I use all of them. But I think that ChatGPT has been developing excellent memory so it really gets a chance to know you the more time you spend with it. That's been super useful to me. And reading what Sam Altman has been saying about what's coming next, it's clear that's going to be a big priority for OpenAI moving forward. So ChatGPT is the top one for me for sure. I use them all. We're constantly trying to compare them. And in my personal life, ChatGPT, Gemini Grok, I try to see who's got what and what features because it is changing all the time. So trying to stay on top of it.

[A]

Do you feel that you need, other than your curiosity, Gil, do you feel that you would pay $20 a month for ChatGPT's model when the others are available for free, effectively for free?

[B]

Well, I pay for all the streaming services, so I'm paying for all the AI subscriptions as well.

[A]

Well, you're a good customer. Thank you for keeping Silicon Valley strong. No, gentlemen, really appreciate it today to delve in dive in debate. All of this again, important day here for OpenAI as they try to catch back up Alex Kantrowitz and Giluria. And as goes Google, well, so goes Broadcom lately shares of both are down about 2% today, ahead of Broadcom's earnings. Christina Parts the neveless is here now with more on that relationship and some key numbers to watch after the bell in today's tech check. Hi Christina. Hi, Kelly. Well, analysts do expect the chip maker to beat and raise. Honestly, everyone is incredibly bullish on this company and that's because of surging demand specifically for custom chips. It makes for Google. That momentum helps explains why Broadcom, you said shares are down today, but if you look at it over just a two month period, shares have jumped 25% while Nvidia essentially flat line, you can see down negative 2%. But these particular chips, they're called TPUs or tensor processing units and they're designed specifically for AI workloads. They're gaining traction though. Beyond Google's Gemini models that you just talked about, Meta, Apple, Anthropic are all now using the technology. The street expects about a 56% increase in AI revenue growth for Broadcom in fiscal 2027. Why? Driven by expanding T, you'd reach that chips that we were just talking about as well as AI networking demand. So that's. Think of them like switching chips. These connect servers inside a data center so that they can speak to each other. That's a very important element of these build outs too. We often talk about the chips, but we don't talk about all the other parts that go in there. The custom chip momentum, though, is also getting a boost from shifting industry dynamics. And what do I mean by that? Oracle. Just last night they talked about selling their ampere chip stake in their earnings call with Larry Ellison saying the company is now committed to, quote, chip neutrality and would deploy whatever chips customers want. That means that it can open more doors for Broadcom's custom silicon business, which, by the way, is also, you know, in direct partnership with Open Air. We heard Sam Altman talk about making chips in the near term. Morgan Stanley sees the real inflection though, for Broadcom coming in the second half of 2026 when Broadcom is expected to deliver $10 billion worth of racks to what's believed to be Anthropic, the maker of Claude, the large language model I use. But some of that Google chip strength may be cannibalizing. Comes other custom chip customers. 4 out of 5 Broadcom ASIC clients, these are the custom chip clients, have ties to TPUs at Google, suggesting this growth would be replacing, not necessarily adding to other expectations. So the results should help clarify whether Broadcom is capturing genuinely new business or simply redistributing revenue across its existing customer base. Kelly, you're a Claude girl. Yeah, and I always say Claude because I'm from Quebec, but yes, of course, it's the best writer Claude. I haven't used it in months. And it's free. No, I pay $20 a month. All right. It's hard to trial. It gets sticky after a while. I guess the product argument, Christine, you gotta change it up, you know, get some spice in your life. I agree. If it were free. If it weren't free. But I guess you can't $20 over here and then $20 over here just to try them all. Just so I can say how many calories was in my lunch today. I know. I still can't believe you do that. You checked that, but good on you. I need to do it. Christina. Thanks very much, Christina. Parts in evolence Coming up, is bitcoin set to bounce back next year? We'll ask the CEO of one company launching a first of its kind crypto etf. We'll have the details next. Plus, small caps hitting another record today. Are they the place to be heading into next year? And our stocks generally poised for that Santa Claus rally later this month. That's all ahead on the Exchange.

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Welcome back. If the crypto crowd was hoping for a rate cut bump yesterday, they haven't exactly gotten it. Bitcoin is down 3% today. It's around 90k. You can feel it's kind of on a knife edge. There some risk off sentiment following Oracle's earnings last night. Not helping either. But it's not just a TODAY story, of course. Bitcoin is down more than 20% over the past three months. But my next guest says no mind. He sees the crypto market still growing 10 to 20x over the next decade. No sweat. And he just launched a new crypto etf. Here on set with me is Hunter Horsley, the CEO of Bitwise Asset Management. It's Great to have you here. Great to be with you again. For those of us who are little bit wise and bit this and bit that. So what is it that your ETF offers?

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So it's a little bit of everything in the crypto space. Bitcoin, ether.

[C]

Exactly, exactly. For so many investors. They're busy. There's a million things going on. You're talking about it on the show. They're trying to grapple with markets and the different parts of their portfolios. They say, I think crypto is here to stay. I think it'll be higher in the future. I don't know how it's all going to play out with Bitcoin and Ethereum and Solana and other things. I just want exposure so that I wake up in three years and I'm on the right side of it. BTW is now, for the first time, making that possible. The ETF's over $1 billion and gives investors a great instrument to how much.

[A]

Turnover is there going to be? You know, it does seem in the crypto world like one day Solana is the cool kid and the next thing it's something else. And especially it's something where I would argue there's no intrinsic value. How do you determine what deserves a place and what doesn't and when?

[C]

That's such a. Such a great question. So we've been running this fund for eight years, believe it or not. Bitwise has been around for eight years through all the, the evolutions of the space. And it's not as simple as pulling up a website like CoinMarketCap and just taking the top 10 assets. We have to screen assets for things like market cap and liquidity and regulatory considerations. So for instance, a number of years ago, people may remember there was an asset called Terra Luna. Yes, the notoriously terrible wolf. Yeah, exactly. There was a wolf tattoo that one individual got that grew to be a top 10 asset by market cap, but we never allowed it into the Bitwise 10 index. So you do have to do extra work in this space to understand the assets, but you can. And the track record of btw, I think gives investors a lot of confidence that it will navigate and produce the most highly valued assets.

[A]

Look, polkadot. I don't know if that's down 11% today. I mean, broadly speaking. Why do you think the crypto complex is under pressure? I did wrote a little bit about this in the newsletter so you can show the QR code if you want to read about it. Just kind of what did the Fed actually do and how accommodative was it really? But it's nevertheless, you see small caps going, you see a lot of all time highs in the market today and crypto is not participating.

[C]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. And I thought the write up that you did was great. The Qs are down today. I think that the market in general is a little unsure where things are going writ large and then crypto as well. The bigger picture story from my vantage point in crypto is that you have some long time holders who are taking some risk off the table and then on the other side across our client base. Let me give you an example. We've been around for eight years. In the last six months, four of the largest banks in the country have approved access to bitwise crypto ETFs. Never before in the.

[A]

I know where you're going with this though, that it's kind of funny because all of the retail investors who have become big by their early exposure crypto are now just, I don't see dumping institutions are coming and say well, I'm happy to give this to you and pocket my gains now and good luck, good luck to you.

[C]

Right, right, right, right, Yes. I think, you know, if you're, if you're an individual who has $100,000 in your savings account and you now have $10 million of crypto, you want to make sure that you lock in some of that. And I think when Bitcoin crossed 100,000, that thought really landed in a lot of people's minds. But the reality is that crypto is a small asset class. And I think the important story this year is that it's, that's, it's been, it's entering the mainstream. It's going on wirehouse platforms. In the third quarter of this year, Bitwise had more wealth management firms and institutions buy a product than any time in our eight year history.

[A]

I've seen advisors saying your 6040 portfolio should now be stocks and crypto and.

[C]

Not we have a client, $2 billion RIA who was running 6040 and they've swapped out 5% of fixed income and put it into Bitcoin with our etf. That probably sounds crazy to some people, that probably sounds smart to others because the point is not that everyone agrees in 2025 the point is that the space is going from being sort of a backwater, a distraction to now being a front and center alternative asset class. And I think for that reason many people like our clients and like Bitwise are incredibly constructive on the outlook.

[A]

Finally then, what do you expect to happen amid this kind of shifting around for next year? Should it stay under pressure? Does it depend on the Fed or you know, Tom Lee yesterday said crypto will outperform perform as long as the ESM moves higher, which he expects to next year. So where are you looking?

[C]

Oh my gosh, it's going way higher. We, you know, we publish long term capital markets assumptions. The timing in crypto is always impossible. There are a thousand ways to embarrass yourself by by making a short term price target. But our research team will put out predictions next week. I can tell you that they expect us to hit new all time highs next year. I think the set up from monetary policy, developments in fiscal policy and adoption of the asset class including stablecoins and tokenization, this thing is itching to go higher and, and I think we will, we will find ourselves there even next year.

[A]

All right, happy to pay big tax bills, you know on big gains Hunter. Really appreciate it. Thanks for joining us today. Hunter Horsley with Bitwise Asset Management. Rivian shares are moving sharply lower after unveiling their new autonomous driving system. The company also announced they've developed their own in house custom ship, but the shares are down about 9% right now. The CEO joins us about that decision and what it means to for the autonomous driving race. We will check in with RJ Scaringe right after this.

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The Dow is up 600 points right now and the small caps are at a record high. But as you just heard From Hunter, the NASDAQ's not really participating, nor is crypto. Anyway, Dom Chu has a closer look at the big movers. Dom, all right, so we're going to tell you a little bit about the tech downside right now. Arguably the biggest market story of the day right now as Oracle shares down about 12%. The enterprise software, cloud computing and AI giant is the biggest decliner in the S&P 500. It reported quarterly earnings that were actually better than expected, but revenues fell shy of expectations. Oracle though did see a whopping 438% rise in its remaining performance obligations, or so called RPOs. That's contracted revenue that has yet to be fulfilled and recognized. That level, by the way, is $523 billion better than the consensus estimate of $502 billion. Nonetheless, those shares are down 12.5%. Then you've got shares of the world's most valuable pharmaceutical company, that's Eli Lilly. Those shares are up about 2 1/2% right now, helped along by news that one of its next gen obesity related drugs delivered what's being viewed as favorable results in a late stage trial involving higher levels of weight loss coupled with reductions in arthritis pain of the knee. So that is moving out to be eli Lilly up 2.5%. And we're going to end on an interesting analyst call out of Deutsche bank, which is upgrading transportation company J.B. hunt to a buy rating from a prior hold and naming it a top pick. The target price goes up to 227 bucks. It was 133, those shares are higher by about nearly 3%. Analysts there are citing things like an uplift of profit margins in its intermodal division and more turnaround traction in the company's ICS freight brokerage division. So keep an eye on JB Hunt shares. And by the way, for more on that and other Tap line analyst calls of the day, just head over to cnbc.com pro subscribers get all the access to detail and context around those big upgrades and downgrades. Also, other specialized tools and content. Kelly, I'll send things back over to you guys. All right, Dom, thank you very much to Bertha now for the news update. Hi, Bertha. Hi, Kelly. Lawyers for Tyler Robinson, the man charged with killing conservative activist Charlie Kirk, scheduled in court in the next hour to push to limit media access to the trial. Both Robinson and the local Utah county's sheriff's office have asked the judge to ban cameras. And Robinson is expected to be in the courtroom, his first such appearance since his arrest. Survivors of Jeffrey Epstein's sex crimes and a group of Democratic lawmakers today asked for an independent review of the Epstein case files ahead of their release next week. They're asking the Justice Department's inspector general to determine whether any of the records have been tampered with or concealed under the law signed by President Trump. The administration is required to release virtually all files by December 19th with only minimal redactions. And Bulgaria's entire government resigned today after mass protests across the the country just weeks before it is set to join the eurozone on January 1. Protesters had been demanding the government resign over its economic policies and perceived failure to tackle corruption. That's going to be a very strange transition, Kelly. Love it. Just they just resign. Off you go. Bye bye, Bertha. Thanks very much. Bertha coombs, Coming up, the Dow hitting a new record high today. And our next guest says the bulls will keep running into next year. But let's less of a stampede, more of a proud bull. What does that mean? We'll ask him what it does and what he's buying next.

The Dow is at a new record high after the Fed cut rates for a third time this year yesterday. But the Nasdaq is under some pressure. The S and P bout back and forth, Oracle's results reigniting some AI spending concerns. My next guest isn't worried. He does say 2026 will be the year of a proud bull, not a stampeding one. Joining us now is Chris Heisey, the chief investment officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. Think, Chris. I'm not that up on my western metaphors. So please explain what you see happening here.

[F]

It's great to be with you, Kelly. I would say this a proud bull is one that looks back and says look at all the hard work we did, not just in the last 12 months, but really almost the last 36 months. We've seen a lot, we've been impacted by quite a bit. And going forward on a 26 basis, particularly midterm election years, you get more volatility and you get more of a proud bull that really looks towards profit growth and less towards multiple expansion and profit growth. We have some concerns out there for sure. We're going to have stimuli hit us and some pressures that come in and if the narrative of our high conviction growth story does not change, those will be buying opportunities in our opinion.

[A]

What else do you see? So let's just kind of look at the dynamics today and ask whether this is going to be the story for the next 12 months. Months small caps at all time highs, the NASDAQ lagging. Is this a temporary phenomenon or to you the sign of what the market might look like for 2026?

[F]

Don't really think this is temporary. There will be a little bit more volatility in tech and communications services, largely speaking, because the further we get into this build out, there's going to be more questions as to whether or not that actual growth rate can continue. What we saw last night, what we expect going forward, is the growth rate to remain high in terms of the overall capital investment build out. It's going to come down to who can execute better than others. So there'll be some choppiness there as it relates to small cap. Small caps are now starting to not just get their footing. As you said, they're hitting all time highs that we had some fits and starts of that last year, but it really didn't stick. We've been overweight since the beginning of the year. We've been waiting for this. And now you've got potentially some fiscal relief here with 100% expensing and a little bit lower rates which ultimately helps small caps as well. So we feel pretty good about the small cap space. In fact, in fact we have overweight in large cap, mid cap and small cap and that's what's actually channeling our entire overweight inequities right now.

[A]

And do you have to take a strong view on what happens with rates? I mean, what do you think is the significance of what the Fed did yesterday?

[F]

The biggest significance is really the liquidity announcement. You Go from the ending quantitative tightening to actually ultimately using the reserve management program to increase liquidity overall and increase the balance sheet seat. That's pretty what I would say. It's a risk on kind of move by the Federal Reserve. So they were worried about funding. They looked at the funding markets. They didn't want to see what happened again in the fourth quarter of 2018. And they made a good move here, at least in our opinion. And we expect that to continue. They may toggle it down to 20 to 25 billion from 40 billion. But, but it's a good management program. It's a good risk management program and I think that's the wild card here and that's why we, we expect expect markets to end on a high, high note here as we close the year.

[A]

I just didn't expect Fed adds liquidity, you know, small caps surge, NASDAQ sells off, Bitcoin sells off. You could say it's just an Oracle thing. But that wouldn't explain why crypto is lower.

[F]

Yeah, I think a lot of it has to do with recycling of portfolios. Now not all private clients will be doing that but certainly on the institutional side we've seen wider participation. There's a lot of investment managers out there looking for areas to expose themselves to that they didn't have that they think will start to react better in 26. A lot of that is the cyclical end of things. I know tech is very cyclical.

[A]

Yeah.

[F]

Particularly semis. But the story is there is a lot of over ownership and you're seeing some profit taking in those areas to fund the, to use that source of funds elsewhere. Small caps, mid caps, M and A activity, deal activity, the financial sector in some other areas, particularly non US and in emerging markets.

[A]

All right, we will check back in on that in a couple of months time but it sounds like a nice setup. Chris, thanks so much.

[F]

Thanks.

[A]

Chris Heisey Coming up, Rivian's on pace for its worst day in nearly a year. And this was after they unveiled an autonomous driving system. Why doesn't the market love it? We're going to check in with CEO RJ Syringe to talk about that and much more right after this break.

Rivian is holding its AI day out in Palo Alto, unveiling its autonomous driving system and launching its own chip, believe it or not. Joining us now to discuss is Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe along with our very own Phil LeBeau. Great to have you both here. Phil, kick us off.

[E]

Thank you very much. Gully RJ we're standing in front of an R2 slew of announcements you guys just made. We'll go through a number of them. But I want to start first off with your decision to design your own chip when it came for AV and artificial intelligence. In the past you've worked with Nvidia, but this time you said no, we're going to go it alone. Why go it alone given the expertise that Nvidia has when it comes to AI? Yeah, I mean the process of developing a chip is not something you take lightly. It's a long multi year process. It takes a tremendous amount of capital and importantly a really capable team. And ultimately for us it was a decision around really the investment in autonomy and how important that is for our business and the recognition that vertically controlling the hardware at the compute level, at the chip level allows us to build a more efficient system. And importantly we can get to much higher levels of performance at a very affordable cost. What you showed today was impressive, but the market, this is your worst day in more than a year in terms of shares of Rivian. And Morgan Stanley was out with a note not too long ago saying, you know what, I don't think that Rivian can keep up with the hype cycle, if you will, when it comes to autonomous vehicles. And they question if you have the capital needed, do you have the capital needed to continue making these investments? I mean for us there's.

Sort of age old view of not getting too caught up in the daily movements of the market. Famous quote is take a look at it over the long term and it's really a weighing machine. Over the short term it's a voting machine. And for us we look at this in the long term horizon we're building technology to enable very high levels of self driving. That means the hardware platform, the data architecture, the data flywheel to train this, this foundation model for driving. And this is something we're very convicted in. I've said many times this is where we're spending a very significant part of our R and D dollars towards self driving, towards autonomy. It's our biggest spend category and we're very bullish on what we're building. And so what we're demonstrating today with, with the vehicles is showing just that. One of the first steps, it's a point to point full self driving capability but that's only going to grow over time. But you know, the skeptics would say nice technology but you need to focus on lower priced vehicles. What do you say to those people? Well, I think it's a bit of a false binary. Of course we need to focus on lower priced vehicles. That's this, this is our two. It starts at $45,000. But we also need to make sure the vehicles are really compelling and leading when it comes to technology. And so the reason the R1s has been so successful, it's the most popular premium electric vehicle in the United States. That's because the tech is amazing, the brand positioning is great, the, the product features are great. And so as we continue to move into these lower priced vehicles like R2 and R3, the technology needs to continue to lead. You are making this primarily for the people who buy Rivian so they can use the artificial intelligence self driving technology on their own. But you kind of opened the door on stage to the possibility of pursuing rideshare opportunities. Would you consider your own robotaxi service? So, you know, from a technology point of view, if you can deliver level four autonomous economy. So that's with the vehicle where it can drive empty, meaning no one in the driver's seat completely operating itself. That can go towards a personal level 4 vehicle. It can go towards a robotax or rideshare level four vehicle. It's very much the same technology. And for us, our initial focus is on personal level 4. Around 99% of the miles driven in the United States are in personally owned vehicles. It's not to say we don't think the rideshare space is interesting. It's just to say that our initial focus is personal, but we're absolutely open to and we'll be exploring ways that we can deploy it in the rideshare space. Real quick, Kelly, I know you have a question, but I want to button this up because people will listen to this and they'll say, are you talking with other companies about pursuing a robo taxi strategy? Today we're focused on the technology. We're focused on making sure we have a really clear roadmap and a rapid roadmap to level four. You know, between here and level four we have what we call eyes off. So it's a level three capability. You can be in the car, in the driver's seat, but on your phone reading the book, not actively involved in driving the vehicle. But the next major step beyond that is level four. The vehicle can pick your kids up from school, drop you at the airport, or as you said, enable other business models like a robotaxi or rideshare service. Kelly, go ahead.

[A]

Just to pile on that, Phil, is fascinating interview so far. Some are saying, rj, that the new technology, the Self driving that you're offering can't navigate or react to many traffic situations. So, so perhaps there's a concern of kind of why build it yourself when there's going to be other models, Tesla's and others out there to use in the future? Phil, I don't know if he can hear me, so you can go ahead and paraphrase that.

[E]

Yeah, his IFB just went out, Kelly. So let me, let me translate what she's saying. All right, A lot of people, and correct me if I'm wrong, Kelly, a lot of people are saying, yeah, there's a lot of models out there saying that it can work and it will work, but it's been slow in developing and moving up to that level, four to that level where you can truly, truly be hands free and it picks you up at home, drops you off at the office, wherever it might be. To Kelly's question, what do you say to the people who are questioning that development of this technology will come along as fast as it should? Well, I love this question because it really gets at a core inflection point that we're at. So if we look at self driving as a technology, it really started about 20 years ago, 15, 20 years ago. And the early ways that this is approached up until early 2000 and 20s was a rules based environment, very classical, linear.

Rules based planners that were designed and coded by humans. What happened with transformer based encoding and the shift to a neural net based approach is it's a completely different approach where you have the deployed fleet are part of what actually enable the building of the model. And so what I say all the time is the next two to three years are going to look much different than the last two to three years in terms of the rate of progress. And we're witnessing it. The speed at which the features are improving, the capabilities are expanding is unlike anything we've seen before and very similar to what happened in the LLM space where we saw an explosion of capability over the last couple of years. We see the same thing happening in the physical world. RJ Scouridge CEO, Founder and CEO of Rivian Kelly, we'll send it back to you.

[A]

It's a fascinating day for the company. Of course, they make beautiful vehicles. That goes without saying. Thank you both very much. Really appreciate it. Coming up, celebrities from Jane Fonda to Billie Eilish have come out against AI. But now that Disney, notoriously protective of its intellectual property, has struck a deal with OpenAI, will Hollywood change its tune next? We'll discuss that right after this, shares of Disney are hired today after they struck a big deal with OpenAI. And while hundreds of creatives, actors, musicians and writers have all expressed copyright concerns about the technology, Disney CEO Bob Iger telling CNBC exclusively earlier today that this agreement actually protects IP.

[C]

We're licensing about 200 characters for users.

[A]

Of Sora to create their own basically.

[C]

Videos using Sora and those characters.

[A]

We are not including name and likeness, nor are we including character voices.

[E]

And so in reality, this does not in any way.

Represent a threat to.

[A]

The creators at all. In fact, the opposite. I think it honors them and respects them in part because there's a license fee associated with it. I'm thinking it'd be kind of fun to mess around with. But should we expect other companies to follow in their footsteps and license their technology IP as well? Let's discuss this with CNBC contributor and author of the Disney Jim Stewart and Julia Boorstin. Welcome to both of you. Julia, out in Hollywood where you Are you hearing anything yet about this deal?

I'm hearing that it's very savvy. Disney by all accounts has the most valuable intellectual property, the characters that are worth the most. And we even heard that from Sam Altman today. These are the characters that his users want to have access to the most. And Disney needs to make sure to protect the way those characters are used. By entering into this agreement, not only only is Disney ensuring that it's going to get paid, but it's also ensuring that OpenAI and ChatGPT and Sora are going to play by the rules, are going to not allow those characters to be used in a way that Disney does not approve of. So with this partnership and with this investment, Bob Iger is saying, I see that this is where the world is going. I want our characters to be a part of it, but I also want to ensure that they are protected and there is an amount of control role that we feel comfortable with. Right Jim, jump in here.

[E]

Well, I think it's a very smart move by Disney and very forward looking and I think it has profound implications. I mean they're putting a toe into.

[F]

The water of a really a whole.

[E]

New market area which is user generated content. I mean people will be using AI to make their own movies and so that's moving into the tick tock area, the YouTube area, you know, the self created content. And this gives Disney a toehold in there. They've also got a stake in AI. I can understand why the creative community is very worried about this. I mean I was already a Threat. Now, Disney has a stake in AI and it's a big consumer of AI and will probably become an ever bigger consumer. There's no question that AI is going to displace a lot of content creators.

[A]

Yeah, I see what you're saying. It's ironic. And Julie, I'll put it to you this way, that you know, a company with very valuable IP now owns a stake in a company everyone's concerned is going to destroy the value of that ip.

Well, you know, this question was put to Bob Iger and what he tried to make very clear is that they were licensing the image of these characters. They were not licensing the voice. And these clips are limited to 30 seconds. So you're not going to even see these characters be able to be deployed in something that's even as long as a short film. So I believe that Bob Iger is trying to restrict the way that his characters are used so that they don't become a threat to their intellectual property and are generating that revenue in the meantime. I mean, it's fascinating looking at the way all of the players here in Hollywood are trying to figure out how to monetize their likeness. You hear about the talent agencies trying to do full body scans of their talent clients to make sure that they're part of the solution, they're part of the monetization and not just getting taken advantage of. So I think this is a very careful line to walk and I think it's things like that 30 second limit like just doing the image, not the voice. Those pieces are really small but actually essential.

[E]

Yeah.

[A]

And Jim, kind of put this in the larger context. Go ahead.

[E]

Well, the guardrails are good as far as they go. But what I'm hearing from practice in Hollywood is that, well, it's a slippery slope. You know, if this like really takes off, people are really doing a lot of self generated stuff using these characters. There's going to be pressure then to let these guardrails down and have more and more licensing and the voices, etc. Such a. I understand why people are.

[A]

Nervous about it in a way. If you want to go to the channels where people are user generated content and all the rest of it, whether it's social or AI, don't you fundamentally want your characters in those channels? Because if otherwise they could have risk of just becoming historical artifacts.

[E]

Well, absolutely. I think that's why this is very smart of Disney. They're getting, they're positioning themselves both from a licensing perspective and an ownership stake and AI to profit from what, what seems to be a very profound shift in the way that people are consuming entertainment. These, these, you know, these areas like streaming. Everybody's focusing on the merger battle, but streaming is almost starting to seem like kind of yesterday's story as this user content thing growth continues at a very fast.

[A]

So where does that leave you on cnn? No, the WBD story, I think we'll have to revisit another day. We'll leave it there for now, though. Appreciate your time. For both of you, Jim Stewart and Julia Boorstin, that's it for us on the Exchange, but I'll hop over with Brian Sullivan for Power Lunch right after this break.

Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella. Eduardo.