The Exchange (CNBC)

Episode: OpenAI Announcements, Crypto Under Pressure & Rivian's New Chip
Date: December 11, 2025
Host: Kelly Evans

Episode Overview

This episode of The Exchange dives into a pivotal day for technology and markets: OpenAI’s major new releases and Disney partnership, the shifting tides in the AI and crypto markets, fresh moves in custom chipmaking from Rivian, and the latest investment landscape as the year draws to a close. Host Kelly Evans and a diverse roster of reporters and guests unpack the competitive battle in AI, the outlook and practicalities of cryptocurrency investing, and the strategic bets happening in the EV and chip sectors. Real-world market impacts—ranging from Google, Broadcom, Rivian and Disney, to small-cap records and the Santa Claus rally—provide a throughline for timely business insights.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. OpenAI’s Announcements and Disney Partnership

Timestamps: [01:04] – [05:58], [07:16] – [14:55], [35:35] – [39:57], [42:32] – [47:18]

Release of GPT-5.2 & “Code Red”

• OpenAI unveiled GPT-5.2 as its “most advanced frontier model yet for everyday professional use”—improved for long, multi-step tasks (coding, spreadsheets, document analysis) with fewer hallucinations; available to both consumers and via API ([01:21]–[02:10]).
• Announced alongside a $1 billion investment and a content deal with Disney.
• The “Code Red” is described less as a crisis, more as OpenAI’s way of focusing resources amid competition, particularly from Google ([01:21], [03:05]).
• Quote (Mackenzie Segalos, [01:21]):
  “Code Red ... is actually a normal part of the company’s playbook, essentially marshaling resources around one key priority.”

Disney Partnership

• OpenAI and Disney’s Sora signed a non-exclusive, three-year content deal, allowing users to generate videos with up to 200 Disney characters—but NOT their likeness or voices ([03:05], [42:32]).
• Disney’s Bob Iger stresses this protects, not threatens, creative IP ([42:47]).
• Quote (Bob Iger, [42:53]):
  “In fact, the opposite. I think it honors them and respects them in part because there’s a license fee associated with it.”

Enterprise Focus and Competitive Landscape

• OpenAI is pivoting from consumer-first to enterprise, seeking profitability in line with rival Anthropic ([04:36], [07:16]).
  • Anthropic generates 85% of revenue from enterprises, outpacing OpenAI.
  • Fiji Simo (ex-Meta, now at OpenAI) is seen as key to monetizing AI products, with ads sidelined “for now.”
  • Quote (Alex Kantrowitz, [07:16]):
    “OpenAI is now taking a strategic pivot … now they’re all in on enterprise.”
• Comparison with Google’s Gemini 3—Gemini makes gains via distribution and integration, not necessarily a better model per se ([08:39]).
• Quote (Alex Kantrowitz, [08:39]):
  “It’s not necessarily a model battle, it’s a distribution battle.”
• User experiences debated: ChatGPT’s “thinking mode” is slower/more resource-intensive; Gemini is praised for rapid responses, but real-world performance of new models still being assessed ([09:30]).
• Quote (Kelly Evans, [09:58]):
  “The user experience with Gemini is it’s instantaneous ... ChatGPT, you’re paying $20 a month for a model that right now ... takes literally several minutes.”

Guardrails and User-Generated Content

• Disney’s deal seen as establishing safer standards for IP holders faced with AI-generated user content ([43:20] onwards).
• Analysts suggest other rights holders will likely follow.
• Quote (Jim Stewart, [44:21]):
  “They’re putting a toe into ... a whole new market area: user-generated content.”

2. Chips and Custom Silicon: Broadcom & Rivian

Timestamps: [14:55] – [18:35], [35:35] – [41:50]

Broadcom’s AI Chip Momentum

• Broadcom is seeing surging demand (up 25% in two months) due to custom AI chips (TPUs), especially for Google’s Gemini models. Other major clients: Meta, Apple, Anthropic ([14:55]).
• The AI revenue growth projection: 56% by fiscal 2027; expected inflection in 2H 2026 with large Anthropic contracts ([15:57]).
• Oracle’s move to “chip neutrality” benefits Broadcom.
• Analyst note: Much of Broadcom’s growth may be redistributing revenue between existing customers rather than opening net-new opportunities.

Rivian’s AV Chip & AI Day

• Rivian unveiled their in-house custom AV (autonomous vehicle) chip, moving away from Nvidia to own vertical integration, enable better performance and control costs ([35:35]).
• CEO RJ Scaringe argues the long-term value is in controlling both hardware and proprietary driving algorithms—major R&D investment going into self-driving ([36:12], [37:07]).
• Company is targeting “personal Level 4 autonomy” for now, with ridesharing/robotaxi a possibility later.
• Quote (RJ Scaringe, [37:07]):
  “[We’re] building technology to enable very high levels of self driving … This is where we’re spending a very significant part of our R&D dollars.”
• Despite the tech debut, shares are down 9% as analysts question Rivian's ability to sustain innovation at scale ([35:52], [37:07]).

3. Crypto Under Pressure & The Future of Digital Assets

Timestamps: [19:57] – [25:48]

Market Sentiment and New ETF Launch

• Crypto markets are soft: Bitcoin is down 20% in three months, recently below $90k ([19:57]).
• Hunter Horsley (CEO, Bitwise Asset Management) introduces the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW), enabling diverse crypto exposure. Bitwise has $15B AUM ([20:36]).
• Fund screens assets for market cap, liquidity, and regulatory filters—explicitly avoided problematic assets like Terra Luna.
• Quote (Hunter Horsley, [21:38]):
  “It’s not as simple as pulling up a website like CoinMarketCap and just taking the top 10 assets. We have to screen assets for things like market cap and liquidity and regulatory considerations.”
• Despite retail profit-taking, institutions and major financial advisors are increasing exposure; some are even adjusting classic ‘60/40’ stock/bond portfolios to include crypto ([24:00]).

Outlook

• Horsley sees crypto’s asset class status shifting from “backwater” to “front and center alternative”; Bitwise expects new all-time highs in 2026, driven by adoption, stablecoins, tokenization, and favorable policy ([24:34], [24:48]).
• Quote (Hunter Horsley, [24:48]):
  “I think we will find ourselves [at new highs] even next year.”

4. Markets Roundup & 2026 Investment Outlook

Timestamps: [27:40] – [35:17], [31:12] – [35:17]

• Dow hits record highs, small caps surge, but Nasdaq and crypto underperform—reflecting portfolio rebalancing following Fed liquidity measures ([27:40], [31:12]).
• Chris Heisey (Merrill/Bank of America): 2026 = the “year of a proud bull” (markets moving modestly, profit growth over multiple expansion, less euphoria than late 2020–2021).
  • Small and mid-caps overweight; overweight in equities overall ([33:33]).
  • Fed's approach signaled “risk-on” but expects more volatility, especially in tech/growth sectors ([33:39], [34:30]).
• Profit taking in crowded tech/semiconductor sectors is fueling rotations into small/mid-caps, financials, and emerging markets.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On OpenAI’s Direction:
  “Enterprise is where revenue is ... OpenAI has been behind.” — Mackenzie Segalos ([04:36])

• ChatGPT vs. Gemini:
  “The fact that we can’t tell [which is better] is really telling. And that’s why OpenAI has hit this lever ... when things are commoditized, it comes down ... to distribution and ... applications.” — Alex Kantrowitz ([13:19])

• AI IP Paradox:
  “It’s ironic ... a company with very valuable IP now owns a stake in a company everyone’s concerned is going to destroy the value of that IP.” — Kelly Evans ([44:59])

• Chips Arms Race:
  “The process of developing a chip is not something you take lightly ... but it allows us to build a more efficient system [and] get to much higher levels of performance at a very affordable cost.” — RJ Scaringe, Rivian ([36:12])

• Crypto’s Institutional Surge:
  “We had more wealth management firms and institutions buy a product than any time in our eight year history.” — Hunter Horsley, Bitwise ([23:15])

Important Timestamps for Key Segments

| MM:SS | Segment | |-------|----------------------------------------------| | 01:04 | OpenAI “Code Red” announcement, GPT-5.2 rollout, Disney deal | | 03:05 | Discussion on enterprise focus; Sora partnership and implications | | 07:16 | Analyst roundtable: OpenAI vs. Gemini, enterprise pivot | | 14:55 | Broadcom chip momentum, AI chip demand & custom silicon | | 19:57 | Crypto under pressure, Bitwise CEO on new ETF | | 24:48 | Crypto outlook for 2026, institutional adoption | | 31:12 | Market rally analysis, 2026 investment preview (Chris Heisey) | | 35:35 | Rivian’s AI Day: custom chip, AV ambitions, CEO interview | | 42:32 | Disney/OpenAI deal in Hollywood IP context; media industry response |

Conclusions & Takeaways

• AI is at a strategic crossroads between model innovation and practical business application, with OpenAI and Google locked in a near-commodity race—distribution, integration, and enterprise sales now matter as much as model quality.
• IP protection is going mainstream for AI: The Disney-OpenAI deal heralds a potential wave of controlled licensing to address creative industry anxieties while opening the door to user-generated content.
• Crypto is entering a new adoption phase, with ETFs enabling mainstream and institutional investment even as the retail market cools.
• In chips, control and specialization are the new battlegrounds, with everyone from Broadcom to Rivian moving to own or shape their hardware futures as AI workloads explode.
• Markets are shifting: Tech leadership is being challenged by a rotation into small/mid-caps and broader asset classes as 2026 approaches, profit-taking is fueling new winners, and investors are bracing for a different environment—less boom, more resilient bull.