Podcast Summary: The Exchange (CNBC)

Episode: OpenAI's Make or Break Year, Intel Interrupted, and Blizzard Bracing
Date: January 23, 2026
Host: Kelly Evans
Guests: Adrian Cox (Deutsche Bank), Sam Lessin (Slow Ventures), Victoria Greene (G Squared Private Wealth), Ben Minicucci (Alaska Air CEO), Matt Miskin (Manulife John Hancock), Deirdre Bosa (CNBC Tech Correspondent), Julia Boorstin (CNBC), Ivan Zarini (Farroot Cybersecurity)

Overview

This episode of "The Exchange" covers the high-stakes year ahead for OpenAI, the dramatic reshuffling among the MAG 7 tech giants as AI transforms the landscape, Intel’s supply and guidance blunders, the growing importance of memory hardware in tech investing, and the severe winter storm threatening half the U.S. Later, the episode delves into the TikTok ownership deal and lingering privacy worries, market sector strategy shifts, and how the evolving AI “backend” is rapidly changing enterprise business models.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. OpenAI’s “Make or Break” Year and the MAG 7 AI Trade

• OpenAI’s Financial Tightrope

  • OpenAI faces existential financial questions, with Deutsche Bank estimating last year's cash burn at $9 billion and predicting $17 billion burn for the upcoming year (00:30–04:45).
  • “OpenAI...may be most at risk as it doesn't seem to have found a workable business model yet to cover its reported cash burn.” — Kelly Evans (02:04)
  • Deutsche Bank’s Adrian Cox notes user subscriptions have plateaued, and OpenAI is scrambling for sustainable revenue channels (03:05).

• AI’s Winners: Incumbents vs. Upstarts

  • Sam Lessin frames OpenAI as a “narrative asset” and argues that AI is an innovation extending incumbents’ edges, not a revolutionary shakeup that will dethrone them (05:26).

  • Google’s distribution power and robust infrastructure are cited as critical advantages against OpenAI (03:31).

    “My narrative on AI has always been the incumbents win...AI is an extending innovation. That means Google crushes it if they get their stuff in line... Everything else is going to be a slog and a battle.” — Sam Lessin (07:06)

• Reset in Valuations and Market Anxiety

  • The recent surge in Google’s value—up 70% year-over-year—comes at the expense of Microsoft and Oracle, who had been closely tied to OpenAI's rise (06:28).
  • The panel agrees there’s a rotation back toward fundamentals and away from “winner take all” AGI dreams, with the MAG 7 likely to reassert dominance barring regulatory shocks (10:06–10:54).
  • Adrian Cox points out supply constraints (memory, energy, talent) and political risks could further complicate the AI trade (08:29).

2. Tech Earnings Preview: Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and the Rise of Memory Hardware

• Apple’s Steadiness Amid Headwinds

  • Victoria Greene remains bullish on Apple, highlighting Q4 phone sales and growing services revenue as buffers against higher memory costs (12:07).
  • “If you can't build it, buy it....they finally acknowledge that Siri is falling well behind …I’m really excited about what they might do in 26.” — Victoria Greene (12:57)

• Microsoft: Trimming on CapEx Fears

  • Despite a bounce, Greene is cautious ahead of earnings. Azure’s supply constraints and swelling CapEx are concerns (13:15).

• Meta’s CapEx as the Key Metric

  • Meta is an attractive play if CapEx discipline returns: “If they walk back on CapEx, then you would be a buyer?... Oh, absolutely.” (13:53–13:59)

• Memory Hardware Outperforms Software

  • The memory/data center buildout is “driving pricing” and offers more visibility than the “narrative” AI software plays (14:36–15:37).
  • “Hardware is the new software. That is the headline. What a sea change that is.” — Scott Wapner (15:37)

3. Intel’s Supply Snafu and Chip Market Jitters

(28:30–31:01)

• Intel’s stock plummets 17% after disappointing guidance and warnings of supply shortages despite recent momentum (28:30).
• “Intel essentially got caught flat footed by AI server demand ... now they're out of inventory and capacity constrained on older manufacturing processes.” — Christina Parts Nevelis (29:08)
• The chipmaker’s turnaround is now suspect, with Wall Street questioning whether its rally was justified by fundamentals.

4. Blizzard Bracing: Historic Winter Storm Threatens U.S.

• Meteorologist Bernie Rayno forecasts dire impacts from a major snow and ice storm: up to 200 million affected, flight operations disrupted, and power outages expected, including in improved Texas grids (18:03–20:56).
• Alaska Air CEO Ben Minicucci on Storm Response & Business Outlook:
  • Anticipates dramatic schedule reductions as ice makes operations nearly impossible; 20% of their routes are East Coast-exposed (21:20–26:32).
  • Discusses 2026 earnings range, the effect of West Coast jet fuel prices, and ongoing IT investments to prevent outages (21:37–24:27).

    “Airplanes and ice just don't mix. And when you're talking about a quarter-inch of ice, it is so difficult to de-ice airplanes… the throughput out of an airport just comes to almost a grinding halt.” — Ben Minicucci (24:45)

5. Market Strategy: Shifting from FOMO Tech to Value, Industrials, and Metals

• Matt Miskin promotes a focus on “quality value,” citing industrials as strongest, while cautioning on “run it hot” trades in metals and tech (33:12–36:43).
• “Earnings estimates into 2026 look rich to us on the tech space...Industrials looking for 16% earnings growth. We think that's legit after a tougher year.” — Matt Miskin (33:12)
• Notes manufacturing and on-shoring trends reviving Midwest industrials.

6. AI’s Next Battleground: APIs and Enterprise Backends

(37:46–40:47)

• API Usage as New Revenue Stream

  • The frontier of AI monetization is shifting from chatbots to enterprises integrating models via API, with OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic all in the mix.

  • OpenAI considering value-based models—taking a cut of their clients' AI-aided discoveries (39:13–39:29).

  • Raises questions of “who owns the inputs, who gets paid for the outcomes,” and competitive risks if open-source or other providers don’t demand a cut (40:14–40:43).

    "OpenAI scraping vast amounts of copyrighted data to train its models and then turning around and asking for a share of the value created on top of that intelligence..." — Deirdre Bosa (39:17)

7. TikTok Deal: US Ownership and Persistent Privacy Fears

(41:26–47:01)

• New U.S.-Based Ownership

  • ByteDance cedes majority control of U.S. TikTok to Oracle, Silver Lake, and Abu Dhabi’s MGX, with U.S.-specific retraining of the algorithm (41:26–43:07).
  • Uncertainties remain about user experience, ROI for advertisers, and growing competition from Instagram Reels (average U.S. TikTok time down to 52 min/day from 1 hour).

• Lingering Data Security Concerns

  • Cybersecurity expert Ivan Zarini cautions that TikTok’s marketing and e-commerce data could still flow to ByteDance, raising surveillance risk (43:50–46:34).

    "Commercial tools do collect data...used for dual purpose...for surveillance on us. And why that is important because we're in the AI race." — Ivan Zarini (45:28)

  • Even if the app’s core data is U.S.-governed, it’s unclear if off-app tracking is prevented, leaving open questions for lawmakers.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Adrian Cox (Deutsche Bank):
  “As any technology is becoming applied in real life, then you begin to really understand what are the strengths of it and where the challenges lie... unlike [the hyperscalers], OpenAI has to go out and raise funding for all of the training that it's doing in data centers.” (03:05)

• Sam Lessin (Slow Ventures):
  “OpenAI today is what I call a narrative asset, right? It's a story, it's a great story, but it's a story where the vision is far outpaced reality.” (05:26)

• Victoria Greene (G Squared):
  “Hardware is the new software. That is the headline. What a sea change that is.” (15:37)

• Ben Minicucci (Alaska Air CEO):
  “Airplanes and ice just don't mix... the throughput out of an airport just comes to almost a grinding halt.” (24:45)

Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment/Quote Summary | |-----------|---------------------------------------------------------| | 02:04 | OpenAI’s cash burn and business model worries | | 03:05 | Deutsche Bank's Adrian Cox breaks down OpenAI's risks | | 05:26 | Sam Lessin on “narrative asset” and incumbency | | 07:06 | Market rotation and impact of Gemini | | 10:06 | Sam Lessin reaffirms belief in incumbent success | | 12:07 | Victoria Greene on Apple's resilience | | 15:37 | “Hardware is the new software.” | | 18:03 | Bernie Rayno forecasts historic winter storm | | 21:37 | Alaska Air CEO on earnings, volatility, and fuel | | 24:45 | Minicucci describes blizzard operational hazards | | 28:30 | Intel’s stock drop and supply woes | | 33:12 | Matt Miskin on quality value rotation | | 37:46 | AI APIs, value models, and enterprise focus | | 41:26 | Julia Boorstin on TikTok’s new U.S. owners | | 43:50 | Ivan Zarini details ongoing TikTok privacy headaches |

Memorable Moments

• The episode’s opening AI segment frames 2026 as a year for “reality versus narrative” in Silicon Valley, with OpenAI at the epicenter.
• Analysts consistently point to ongoing AI infrastructure and data center buildout as an overlooked driver shifting market focus from software hype to hardware necessity.
• Airlines bracing for extreme winter weather highlights the complex coordination and contingency planning involved, as articulated by Alaska Air’s CEO.
• The TikTok segment blends optimism for continued U.S. access with expert-driven skepticism about true data sovereignty—a theme likely to persist as the U.S.–China tech rivalry evolves.

Conclusion

This packed edition of "The Exchange" gave listeners a front-row seat to the shifting reality in tech, investing, and even the weather, as 2026 kicks into high gear. The episode underscores how narrative and reality are colliding in AI, why hardware is the surprise winner in tech investing, and that regulatory and political crosscurrents show no signs of abating—from OpenAI to TikTok to Alaska Air’s storm planning.