The Exchange – "Oracles Wild Numbers, Klarna Starts Trading, and Novo’s Next Move"

Date: September 10, 2025
Host: Melissa Lee (with Mike Santoli and Leslie Picker)
Podcast: CNBC

Episode Overview

This episode of The Exchange dives into major themes shaping markets right now: Oracle’s explosive growth and its broader implications for tech investing; Klarna’s long-awaited IPO and state of the IPO market; Novo Nordisk’s drastic restructuring to revive its weight-loss drug dominance; and fresh developments at Robinhood and Amazon’s foray into the robotaxi wars. The hosts, joined by leading market insiders and analysts, break down the stories moving the day with a focus on the underlying trends and what’s next for investors.

Main Discussion Points

1. Market Snapshot and Oracle’s Blowout Earnings

• Opening Tone & Market Overview (01:04 – 02:09):
  Melissa Lee and Mike Santoli set the stage: S&P and Nasdaq hit record highs, aided by softer-than-expected inflation and Oracle’s “monstrous” numbers. The lower bond yields hint at hopes for continued Fed flexibility.
• Key takeaways:
  • Tech, utilities, energy leading gains
  • Bond yields sharply lower—market sees inflation risk easing
  • “You continue to call the bears bluff on all these things that could knock the market off course.” – Mike Santoli (01:17)

Oracle’s Transformation and Broader Tech Impacts (02:41 – 05:30)

• Oracle surges 40% on blowout results, closing in on $1 trillion market cap.
• Quotes from Wall Street range from “tectonic shift” (Morgan Stanley) to “truly awesome results” (Deutsche Bank).
• Revenue growth has radically accelerated: “The 10 years ending in 2022, the average revenue growth rate of Oracle was 1.6%. I mean that's how much the business has absolutely just transformed...” – Melissa Lee (05:04)
• Critical insight: Oracle’s retention in the S&P is less than expected due to founder Larry Ellison’s large individual holding—so index effect is muted.

Notable Moment:
“It's a nearly 50 year old company that's like on the fly transforming to a hypergrowth story." – Mike Santoli (04:02)

2. Klarna’s IPO and State of the IPO Market

Live from the NYSE (06:06 – 12:16)

• Klarna opens for trading at $52.10—a 30% pop from its $40 IPO price, raising $1 billion.
• Leslie Picker speaks with Peter Giacchi, Citadel's DMM, for an insider view.
• Robust demand, mostly institutional on opening.
• “I think that the IPO markets are coming back to life.” – Peter Giacchi (09:01)
• Historical context: Klarna’s valuation ($20 billion at open) is below 2021’s private level, but well above 2022.
• Only about 17% of the float was primary (funds to company), most was shareholder sales.

IPO Trends with Scott Rain Sweeney, Redpoint Ventures (12:28 – 17:35)

• IPO momentum is strong: more deals, higher quality (larger, more mature, profitable companies).
• “The bar is higher to go public right now… These companies are staying private longer. They're having to mature and grow because the bar is higher.” – Scott Rain Sweeney (13:33)
• Fintech is highly represented: result of 2018–2022’s private funding boom.
• Scott emphasizes that AI-driven tech is now the primary value creation engine.

Memorable Quote:
“I would say this is probably going to be the greatest period of value creation the tech industry has ever seen... And it's going to be driven by AI.” – Scott Rain Sweeney (15:05)

AI Adoption and Market Impact

• “Anywhere where you see a collection of humans performing tasks, maybe some data manipulation or monitoring, I think those things are likely to be impacted by AI.” – Scott Rain Sweeney (15:53)
• AI adoption remains in early stages—public companies across industries seeing positive business impact, but a lot of experimentation remains (16:57).

Klarna Update: After its surge, the stock moderates but stays above the IPO price (17:35).

3. Oracle’s Long-Term Outlook — Headwinds and Risks

Powering Future Growth (19:45 – 26:10)

• Oracle’s monster numbers have powered other tech stocks, but how sustainable is the growth?
• Article references raise the question: “Is Oracle the new Nvidia? ...new Microsoft?”
• Guest: Rishi Jaluria (RBC Capital), offers a note of caution:
  • Lack of clarity around long-term power supply for Oracle’s cloud ambitions (essential for its explosive guidance to FY30 and beyond).
  • Other risks: reliance on excess GPU capacity (which could diminish); questions about the quality (margins) of this new cloud infrastructure revenue.
  • "On some training use-cases, margins could even be negative." (23:22)

Memorable Quote:
“The idea that this can be a very, very margin accretive business—I need to see more evidence before I could begin to believe that.” – Rishi Jaluria (24:39)

• Jaluria’s preferred A.I. plays: Microsoft (“higher quality revenue”), MongoDB (unstructured data), HubSpot (AI for sales/marketing), Intuit (AI-powered tax/finance tools).

4. Robinhood’s ‘Super App’ and Social Network Push

Platform Wars (27:23 – 29:41)

• Robinhood launches its own social investing network, aiming at traffic from Reddit’s WallStreetBets and other online trading communities, per CEO Vlad Tenev:
  “We want to be the place where you can meet all of your financial needs at the lowest cost and with the best possible user experience.” (27:37)
• Rolling out new features: short selling, futures trading, index trading overnight.
• Hosts debate whether Robinhood can stay disruptive or will become just another “incumbent.”

Notable Quip:
“At some point Robinhood is going to become the incumbent and boring, but it's going to be a great business, probably right.” – Mike Santoli (29:35)

5. Macro and Markets — Deutsche Bank’s S&P 500 Call

Market Trajectory and Risks (31:43 – 37:44)

• Deutsche Bank’s Becky Chad explains why they’re returning to their original 7,000 target for the S&P by year-end (8% upside from current).
• Tariff shocks and Fed policy seem “manageable”—earnings growth and buybacks remain strong drivers.
• Discretionary investors are neutral (so not all-in despite market highs); systematic flows are overweight.
• Risks: Full effects of tariffs may not have played out; key sectors still reliant on tech/AI momentum but adjustment ongoing.
• “You kind of want to be neutral here. You don't really want to be underweight.” – Becky Chad (37:44)

6. Novo Nordisk – Show-Me Story Amid Weight Loss Drug Wars

Restructuring and Sector Headwinds (37:58 – 40:13)

• Novo Nordisk cuts 9,000 jobs (11% of workforce) after shares have plunged 60% since June 2024.
• Move is to cut complexity and refocus on R&D—response to losing edge vs. Eli Lilly and others in the obesity drug space.
• Bernstein upgrades stock, calls the obesity “growth engine” underappreciated.
• “It was positive and now it’s basically flat. So it’s really, you know, a show me stock.” – Melissa Lee (39:41)

7. Amazon's Entry into the Robotaxi Race

AV Innovations and Industry Competition (40:13 – 43:29)

• Amazon’s Zoox self-driving taxis launch in Las Vegas—first vehicle built from scratch (no wheels, pedals).
• Puts Amazon in direct competition with Alphabet’s Waymo and Tesla.
• Potential for AV expansion to Amazon’s broader logistics/delivery network.

8. Rapid Fire: Crypto, AppLovin, Synopsys, Housing

Bite-Sized Market Movers (43:29 – End)

• Crypto holding companies slumping on regulatory scrutiny, mismatches in vehicles used to buy crypto.
• AppLovin: Surge in short interest after S&P 500 inclusion.
• Synopsys: Down 35% on weak guidance and China headwinds.
• Mortgage demand jumps as rates dip.

“We don’t know what the magic threshold is for mortgage rates to get real activity going again, but so far, applications up.” – Mike Santoli (46:04)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “It's a nearly 50 year old company that's like on the fly transforming to a hypergrowth story.”
  —Mike Santoli, Oracle discussion (04:02)
• “I would say this is probably going to be the greatest period of value creation the tech industry has ever seen. And it's going to be driven by AI.”
  —Scott Rain Sweeney, IPO pipeline (15:05)
• “The idea that this can be a very, very margin accretive business—I need to see more evidence before I could begin to believe that.”
  —Rishi Jaluria, Oracle margins (24:39)
• “At some point Robinhood is going to become the incumbent and boring, but it's going to be a great business, probably right.”
  —Mike Santoli, retail brokerage (29:41)
• “You kind of want to be neutral here. You don't really want to be underweight.”
  —Becky Chad, on market positioning (37:44)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Market Overview/Oracle earnings: 01:04 – 05:30
• Klarna IPO & market context: 06:06 – 17:42
• Further Oracle risk analysis: 19:45 – 26:10
• Robinhood social network: 27:23 – 29:41
• Deutsche Bank’s S&P target: 31:43 – 37:44
• Novo Nordisk’s restructuring: 37:58 – 40:13
• Amazon’s Zoox robotaxi launch: 40:13 – 43:29
• Rapid Fire (crypto & others): 43:29 – end

Episode Tone & Takeaways

In classic Exchange fashion, the show provides crisp, data-backed insights with a blend of skepticism and enthusiasm about market euphoria, tech transformation, and the cyclical nature of business. Hosts and guests mix actionable analysis with healthy reminders that rapid growth (Oracle, Klarna, Robinhood, Novo) comes with long-term strategic risks. AI remains the central force supercharging both excitement and uncertainty in public and private tech investing.

This summary captures the spirit, structure, and key facts from this wide-ranging, pacey, and insight-rich episode of The Exchange.