Podcast Summary: The Exchange – "Out with the New, In with the Old and Crypto Keeps Sliding"

Date: February 5, 2026
Host: Kelly Evans (CNBC)
Guests & Contributors: Kate Rooney, Christina Partsinevelos, Seema Mody, Drew Pettit (Citi), Evan Sohn (Revelio Labs), Steve Liesman (CNBC), Emily Parker (Coincheck), Cosmo Jiang (Pantera Capital), Deirdre Bosa (CNBC), Gary Niederpoom (Forgent), Dan Primack (Axios)

Episode Overview

This episode explores a tumultuous day on Wall Street marked by a sharp rotation out of high-octane tech and AI-related stocks ("out with the new") and into traditional, less-volatile sectors ("in with the old”), especially consumer staples. The discussion covers the pain points in software and semiconductor stocks, intensifying competition in AI, the drivers behind massive shifts in crypto markets (particularly Bitcoin’s tumble), and the broader labor market's increasing signs of stress. The episode also touches on IPO activity and how big tech's massive capital expenditures in AI infrastructure are reshaping the sector.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Market Dilemma: Rotation, Volatility, and Outflows

[03:10 - 06:15]

• Tech Rout: The Nasdaq continued its worst 3-day drop since April 2025; Dow was off its lows but still down sharply. Bitcoin tanked over 10% to just above $66k. Several growth and AI names, especially in software (Oracle, Palantir, MTM ETF), led declines.
• Rotation to Safety: Classic consumer staples (Coke, McDonald's, Hershey) hit 52-week highs as risk appetites faded.
• Key Quote:
  Kelly Evans: “Out with the new and in with the old. That’s the market move we’re watching. But is it risk-off, a healthy rotation, or just the narrative shifting again?” [01:45]

2. The AI Arms Race: OpenAI vs. Anthropic vs. Google Gemini

[06:16 - 12:22]

• Major Model Announcements: OpenAI released its “most capable coding model” (GPT-5.3 Codex), boasting speed/efficiency improvements and expanded enterprise features. Anthropic countered with its own new model, highlighting rapid progress.
• Competitive Dynamics: “Game of Thrones”–style rivalry, including public barbs and Super Bowl commercials.
• Impacts on Software: Anthropic’s plugin releases triggered massive selloffs in legal and professional software names.
• Enterprise Focus: Anthropic and Google Gemini battle for lucrative B2B clients; Gemini now claims 750 million users.
• Notable Quote:
  Kate Rooney: “OpenAI now improving its coding offer amid fierce competition with Anthropic... It feels like every five minutes there’s a massive announcement.” [06:25]
• Soundbite:
  Kelly Evans: “When Claude introduced those plug-ins… it created a lot of selling pressure across the legal names and other professional tools.” [09:35]

3. Semiconductors: From Hot to Not, Memory Crunch & Hardware Woes

[12:23 - 19:42]

• Chip Sector Tumbles: Even previously-resilient hardware names (AMD, Lam Research, Ares, Micron, SK Hynix) slumped, many off 20% in a week.
• Memory Shortages: Qualcomm and Intel CEOs cited memory supply chain issues; Chinese chip alternatives are being considered due to desperation.
• Sector Crowding: “Crowded” trades in memory and optics mean little upside until the supply/demand imbalances resolve.
• Key Exchange:
  Christina Partsinevelos: “We’re seeing a narrowing within the tech sector and these high flyers… just are not as popular. Maybe they’ve been crowded too long.” [13:41]

4. Software Meltdown: Prolonged Selloff & Indiscriminate Pressure

[19:43 - 25:52]

• Record Declines: IGV Software ETF down for 8 straight days, $1 trillion in market cap erased, longest losing streak in five years.
• Company Struggles: Workday announced layoffs, Applovin down 40%, Oracle faces analyst downgrades due to AI-related funding questions.
• Executives in a Bind: Fast-moving AI innovation creates existential challenges for legacy and upstart software firms alike.
• Critical Quote:
  Seema Mody: “Software execs are struggling to defend their businesses when the technology evolving monthly.” [21:58]
• Investor Anxiety: “The selling has become indiscriminate… there’s not yet a real catalyst for buyers to step in.” [23:40]

5. The Flight to Staples & Strategic Rotations

[26:00 - 31:35]

• Why Staples? Drew Pettit (Citi) described the move as a low-beta, "nothing else left to buy" trade rather than deep-seated macro worry.
• Strategy for Investors: Emphasized “differentiation in growth,” maintaining innovation exposure, pairing with some cyclical risk, and not panicking over short-term volatility.
• Rotation, Not Panic: “We’re not early in this bull market… When you’re fully valued, any incremental news flow has a big effect.” [28:55]

6. Labor Market Stresses: Slowing, But Still Complex

[31:36 - 40:00]

• Softening Data: Highest layoff count to start a year since 2009; job postings and openings declining, key firms (Starbucks, TJ Maxx, US Govt) cutting back.
• Mixed Signals: Some growth in education, health, and finance (Arizona State U, Bank of America, ADP).
• Wage Pressure: Average salary for new postings up 2.5% month-to-month even as job growth plateaus—a sign of selective hiring and higher wage competition.
• Market Impact: Fed may "toy with" April rate cut, but uncertainty reigns.
• Quotes:
  Steve Liesman: “The narrative is the narrative… It’s very difficult to pinpoint if we added 20,000 or dropped 12,000 jobs in the whole U.S. economy.” [34:55]
  Evan Sohn: “Companies are hiring without actually putting up a job post… maybe it’s AI talking to AI.” [36:10]

7. Crypto Crash: The End of Bitcoin’s Narrative?

[41:00 - 51:00]

• Bitcoin Plunge: Down 11% on the day, at lowest since Oct. 2024, and 50% off recent highs. This precipitated steep losses in related stocks (Strategy, Coinbase, Bitminer, Robinhood).
• Crisis of Narrative: Stablecoin adoption and gold’s resurgence undermine the “digital gold” argument; regulatory clarity and use-cases lacking.
• Panel Take:
  Emily Parker: “Bitcoin is a narrative-driven asset and we’ve kind of lost the narrative. That’s what’s causing the panic.” [43:45]
  Cosmo Jiang: “It’s easy to lump Bitcoin and blockchain together, but actual blockchain tech is booming… Bitcoin’s price just doesn’t follow that now.” [46:35]
• Technical Factors: Bitcoin’s RSI at “17”—deeply oversold—but technical weakness not isolated; mirrors broader risk asset rout.
• Stinging Dialectic:
  Kelly Evans: “Bitcoin came in to replace Wall Street and governments, but now it’s more about ETFs and institutional investment… So what’s the narrative if price collapses?” [48:05]

8. Big Tech CapEx & the New 'Utility' Model

[52:00 - 57:13]

• AI Buildout: Big Four (Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon) expected to spend $600B in CapEx on AI infrastructure this year—over 4x from two years ago.
• Paradigm Shift: Hyperscalers as “utilities” providing AI power; concern about asset-heavy business models (compressed multiples, crowded out buybacks).
• Demand Uncertain: Tech giants building ahead of confirmed use-cases—a different risk compared to initial cloud buildout.
• Notable Quote:
  Deirdre Bosa: “Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google—they’re building an intelligence grid. Once you’re on it, you’re tied to it… the economic model changes everything.” [53:45]

9. Forgent IPO: AI Ecosystem Infrastructure

[57:14 - 1:02:30]

• Company Profile: Electrical equipment manufacturer serving data centers, utilities, and industrials; 80%+ revenue growth, $1.5B backlog, customers incl. Meta, Google, Tesla.
• AI Tailwinds: Increased substation and energy demand for AI/data centers. Customers taking power generation into their own hands (building their own substations/natural gas plants).
• CEO Insight:
  Gary Niederpoom: “The AI piece has just recently been like icing on the cake… Whether it’s utility or the end customer, more substations, more data centers—wonderful tailwinds for us.” [1:00:25]

10. IPO Window and the Private Market

[1:02:31 - 1:05:28]

• Flood of IPOs: Busiest week for IPOs since 2021; success or failure in aftermarket will determine if window stays open.
• Cautionary Note: Many large IPOs have underperformed the S&P 500 and may even be negative from IPO price.
• AI vs. Everything Else: Muted reaction to new tech IPOs seems more about broader market stress than lack of demand for “AI names.”

Notable & Memorable Quotes

• Kelly Evans [01:45]: “Out with the new and in with the old. That’s the market move we’re watching. But is it risk-off, a healthy rotation, or just the narrative shifting again?”
• Kate Rooney [06:25]: “OpenAI now improving its coding offer amid fierce competition with Anthropic... Feels like every five minutes there’s a massive announcement.”
• Seema Mody [21:58]: “Software execs are struggling to defend their businesses when the technology is evolving monthly.”
• Drew Pettit [28:55]: “We’re not early in this bull market… When you’re fully valued, any incremental news flow has a big effect.”
• Steve Liesman [34:55]: “The narrative is the narrative… Very difficult to pinpoint if we added or dropped jobs in the whole U.S. economy.”
• Emily Parker [43:45]: “Bitcoin is a narrative-driven asset and we’ve kind of lost the narrative.”
• Deirdre Bosa [53:45]: “They’re building an intelligence grid. Once you’re on it, you’re tied to it… It changes everything.”
• Gary Niederpoom [1:00:25]: “The AI piece just recently has been like icing on the cake… The more data centers, wonderful tailwinds for us.”

Key Timestamps for Quick Reference

• Market setup & staples rotate in: [01:45 - 03:10]
• AI models & enterprise battle: [06:16 - 12:22]
• Semiconductor/memory crunch: [12:23 - 19:42]
• Software ETF collapse: [19:43 - 25:52]
• Money managers adjust, staples rationale: [26:00 - 31:35]
• Layoff wave & labor data: [31:36 - 40:00]
• Crypto & Bitcoin’s existential question: [41:00 - 51:00]
• Big Tech CapEx & AI utilities: [52:00 - 57:13]
• Forgent IPO (AI infra): [57:14 - 1:02:30]
• IPO market window: [1:02:31 - 1:05:28]

Tone

The conversation is fast-paced, urgent, and sometimes anxious—reflecting the market’s volatility and investor uncertainty. There’s an undercurrent of curiosity and skepticism about whether current conditions represent a temporary rotation, the start of a risk-off environment, or deeper, structural changes in technology, investment, and the economy.

Summary Takeaways

• The "AI trade" is under pressure as both software and hardware stocks unwind; money is rotating into safer bets, especially consumer staples.
• Supersonic competition between AI leaders (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) is smashing both innovation timelines and legacy business models.
• Macro signals are mixed: a weakening labor market collides with strong wage growth for the few hires made; Fed rate cut hopes linger in the background.
• Bitcoin’s story is at a crossroads—without its “narrative,” price plunges even while real-world blockchain innovation continues.
• Large-scale investments in AI infrastructure mark big tech as the new utilities of the digital era, but the risk profile and valuation models may need to adjust.
• IPO market is technically open, but fragile; even AI-flavored listings are not immune to risk-off sentiment.

This episode captures a day where old and new, hype and reality, narrative and fundamentals, all contested for dominance—offering listeners both insightful analysis and an on-the-ground feel for how Wall Street processes market stress and innovation shocks.