Podcast Summary: "Retail Sales Stall, Apple Bull Case, and Bitcoin Bottom in Sight?"

Podcast: The Exchange, CNBC
Date: February 10, 2026
Host: Kelly Evans

Overview & Main Theme

This episode of The Exchange dives into current market trends as the Dow hits new highs amidst disappointing U.S. retail sales, examines the bull case for Apple despite headwinds from rising memory prices, and explores whether Bitcoin is nearing a cycle bottom. The program features in-depth conversations with leading economists, analysts, and market strategists on these hot topics, with a look beyond the “Mag 7” tech stocks to international market opportunities, and how the AI revolution is shaping different industries—and market reactions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Overview & Fed Perspectives

(00:58 – 09:18)

• Dow Hits Record High: Despite weaker-than-expected retail sales, the Dow is up, outperforming the NASDAQ and S&P 500.
• Software Stocks Bounce: Datadog, ServiceNow, DocuSign, and Oracle are highlighted for strong performances.
• Fed Official Comments: Fresh remarks from Dallas Fed President Lori Logan and Cleveland Fed President Hammack suggest the Fed is in a holding pattern, emphasizing inflation concerns over labor market weakness.

Gregory Daco (EY Parthenon, Chief Economist):

• The economic signals are mixed and “the benefits of growth are not falling equally across all different income groups and all different businesses.” (03:08)
• Retail sales are running at about a 2.5% annual pace, but “real retail sales volume growth is actually slightly down... all of this is on the price front” due to inflation. (04:00)
• Labor market is seeing a “deep freeze,” with negative payroll growth over the last three months, and this will constrain consumer spending for the rest of the year.
• Predicts “softer momentum” heading into 2026, with true economic growth likely near 2.5%.
• The Fed is divided: some focus on inflation, others on employment. Daco suggests caution due to disinflationary trends from a weakening labor market.
• U.S. economic growth remains polarized: “Growth is not shared evenly across all consumers. Those affluent consumers... still doing quite well. Lower income and median income families... struggling.”

Memorable Quote:

"The main pillar of income growth, which is the labor market, is adding fewer jobs... for many consumers this means reduced income growth."
— Gregory Daco (05:05-06:08)

2. Apple Bull Case Amid Rising Costs

(09:18 – 13:49)

• Mark Newman (Bernstein, Senior Analyst): Raised Apple’s price target to $340, citing a strong iPhone 17 upgrade cycle despite memory prices rising, likely leading to a 15% jump in iPhone prices.
  • Apple is expected to pass these increased costs to customers. Some may delay upgrades or buy lower-spec models, leading to “slight downward shift in mix” and flat unit growth for iPhone 18.
  • Biggest driver for Apple stock this year may be their AI move—“Apple Intelligence” or “Siri 2.0”—with promise for incremental services revenue and unit upgrades.
  • Market perception is shifting: After a tough run, investors see Apple as a relative safe haven.

Memorable Quote:

“I believe you're going to see a meaningful step forward this year and that’s going to help. I think there’s upside to unit growth from Apple Intelligence..."
— Mark Newman (12:33)

3. Bitcoin’s Bottom: Is $55K the Next Stop?

(15:54 – 21:52)

• Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy, as replayed from ‘Squawk Box’): Continues to double down on Bitcoin, saying:

“We're not going to be selling. We're going to be buying Bitcoin...even if Bitcoin falls 90% for the next four years, we'll refinance the debt.” (15:54-16:07)

• Ed Engle (Compass Point, Senior Research Analyst):
  • MicroStrategy’s loans are secure with high BTC collateralization: “You need...pretty significant declines in the price of Bitcoin before you start to be underwater on those loans.” (17:18)
  • Believes Bitcoin is in “early processes of finding a bottom,” possibly seeing $55,000 as a next level, but not necessarily a “line in the sand.”
  • Institutional demand (especially ETFs) is making this cycle less volatile; major industry players are “doubling down” rather than pulling back.
  • Key support: Bitcoin’s average purchase price ($56K) and 200-day moving average ($58K) should provide price stability, barring another event like the 2022 credit bust.

Memorable Quote:

“This cycle has actually had a lot less retail interest than prior cycles. Now...a lot of the price action is really driven by institutional demand, especially the Bitcoin ETFs.”
— Ed Engle (21:08)

4. International Markets & Sector Rotations

(25:01 – 30:42)

• Andres Garcia Amaya (Zoe Financial):
  • International markets—Korea, Brazil, Japan—are outperforming the S&P YTD, with Korea highlighting tech plays at cheaper valuations.
  • EM and international indices (like EEM ETFs) are attractive starting points. He sees “the story...just beginning in those markets.”
  • Believes some market move is money rotating out of the Mag 7 into these international or undervalued sectors.
  • U.S. sectors less exposed to AI disruption, like industrials and financials, are highlighted as safer bets: “Adams look safer than bits right now.” (28:48)
  • The shift driven by corporate earnings, with international “reaccelerating in a way that was not happening in prior years.”

5. AI: Market Disruption vs. Catalyst (US vs. China)

(31:52 – 35:59)

• Deirdre Bosa (CNBC):
  • Contrasts market reactions to AI breakthroughs: US software, brokerage, and gaming sectors seeing sell-offs due to perceived disruption (e.g., Altruist’s AI tax tool impacting Schwab’s price), while Chinese markets rally on similar advancements.
  • Suggests US markets price AI as an existential threat, China as an opportunity.
  • Chinese tech companies, despite spending far less on AI, are closing the gap with competitive models.

Memorable Quote:

“In China, breakthroughs are being priced exactly the opposite as an opportunity. A new image and video model from ByteDance...fueled a rally...A similar announcement from Google...led to a selloff [in the US].”
— Deirdre Bosa (32:14-32:40)

6. Earnings, Sector Stocks & Market Sentiment

(37:15 – 41:32)

• DraftKings: Seen as having overhang risk from prediction markets, but potential catalysts in media and sports events.
• Robinhood: Tim Seymour flags its “real EPS growth” and favorable valuation for those bullish on crypto.
• Cisco: Cited as an “unsexy” stock now rerating much higher due to its positioning in AI-related hardware and security software.

Memorable Quotes:

• “Cisco is finally rerating...AI means investment in Cisco's core business. A business that wasn't terribly sexy until it was about a year ago.”
  — Tim Seymour (40:26)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Time | |----------------------------------------|---------------| | Intro & Market Overview | 00:58 – 03:08 | | Fed & US Economy w/ Gregory Daco | 03:08 – 09:18 | | Apple Bull Case w/ Mark Newman | 09:18 – 13:49 | | Bitcoin Analysis (Saylor/Engle) | 15:54 – 21:52 | | International Markets & Rotations | 25:01 – 30:42 | | US vs. China AI Market Reactions | 31:52 – 35:59 | | Earnings & Sector Discussions | 37:15 – 41:32 |

Notable Quotes

• “[Economic] growth is not shared evenly across all consumers. Those affluent consumers... still doing quite well. Lower income and median income families... struggling.” — Gregory Daco (08:15)
• “I believe you’re going to see a meaningful step forward [from Apple Intelligence] this year...” — Mark Newman (12:33)
• "We're not going to be selling. We're going to be buying Bitcoin... I expect we'll be buying bitcoin every quarter, forever." — Michael Saylor (15:54)
• “Adams look safer than bits right now here in the United States.” — Andres Garcia Amaya (28:48)
• "In China, breakthroughs are being priced... as an opportunity. A new image and video model from ByteDance... fueled a rally..." — Deirdre Bosa (32:14-32:40)
• “Cisco is finally rerating... AI means investment in Cisco's core business.” — Tim Seymour (40:26)

Tone and Style

The conversation is lively, professional, and nuanced—balancing data-driven skepticism ("GDP whiplash," "polarization of growth") with optimistic takes on tech innovation and market rotation. The tone, especially from the host Kelly Evans, remains sharp and inquisitive, asking for actionable insights and challenging guests on assumptions around consumers, companies, and policy.

For Listeners Who Missed the Show

• Expect a sophisticated breakdown of why market sentiment diverges between indices and sectors, why the Fed’s next move is up for debate, and how inflation is hurting lower-income Americans.
• The Apple segment provides a timely, practical outlook on how cost pressures may—counterintuitively—support share prices even as buyers grumble.
• Crypto investors get both the double-down bullish view (MicroStrategy) and a sober technical take (Compass Point) on Bitcoin’s cycle.
• Listeners will walk away with a global perspective: the shift to international equities, why China’s market rewards AI where the US punishes it, and which sectors are likely to weather the current tech storm.

End of Summary