Podcast Summary: "Slumping Stocks and Surging Yields, the Greenland Case, and Trump's Tariff Threats"

Podcast: The Exchange (CNBC)
Date: January 20, 2026
Host: Kelly Evans

Overview

This episode of The Exchange dives into a feverish trading day on Wall Street, driven by President Trump’s unexpected tariff threats focused on Greenland, escalating tensions with Europe, and a notable global sell-off in stocks and bonds. The show features real-time analysis of market dynamics, expert commentary on the shifting global order, and a breakdown of the economic and geopolitical factors fueling volatility. Notable guests include Eamon Javers, Julian Emanuel, Richard Haass, Jeff Kilburg, Ed Yardeni, and other CNBC contributors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Turmoil: The "Sell America" Trade

[00:55–02:38] Kelly Evans Overview

• Stocks: Dow down more than 700 points, Nasdaq -2%, Russell small caps outperforming.
• Bonds: 30-year yield nears 5%, 10-year at 4.31% before pulling back.
• Currencies: Dollar having its worst day since August; euro, Swiss franc up.
• Commodities: Gold hits record above $4,700/oz, biggest daily gain since October; silver surges.
• Japan: 30-year bond yields jump, yen hits lowest since July 2024, evoking "carry trade crisis" memories.

Notable Quote:

"This is what we mean by the Sell America trade today. Back below 99. The euro, the Swiss franc, they're all higher."
— Kelly Evans [01:43]

2. Trump’s Tariff Threat Over Greenland: Geopolitical Tremors

[02:38–06:29] Eamon Javers reports from Washington

• Trump threatens tariffs against European nations with troops in Greenland, citing defense concerns against a potential U.S. invasion.
• EU response led by President Macron, signaling willingness to counter U.S. measures with their "anti-coercion mechanism."
• European leadership sees U.S. tactics as economic aggression, preparing for potential trade war escalation.

Notable Quote:

"Europe has very strong tools now... the anti coercion mechanism is a powerful instrument and we should not hesitate to deploy it in today's tough environment."
— Emmanuel Macron [04:13]

• Discussion on Danish pension fund divesting $100 million from U.S. Treasuries as symbolic protest, reflecting growing unease about U.S. fiscal policy.

Notable Quote:

"Greenland gives them an excuse to register their complaints about poor government finances. Greenland becomes the straw that breaks the camel's back."
— Kelly Evans [05:22]

3. Market Analysis: Is This Contained or Deeper Trouble?

[07:00–10:40] Julian Emanuel, Evercore

• April precedent: last year’s sell-off and subsequent policy pivot from Trump.
• Current volatility is “reasonably contained” compared to past crises; markets not yet in full panic.
• Main investor concern: fragmentation of global order, threat to free flow of goods and capital, especially as Europe may retaliate.

Notable Quote:

"It's less about the imposition of tariffs in the tariff regime itself and more about the threat to the free flow of goods and services exchanged every day."
— Julian Emanuel [10:07]

4. Global Financial System Under Strain

[10:40–14:20] Ray Dalio at Davos (clip) and further analysis

• Dalio: "The monetary order is breaking down," citing central banks’ shift away from fiat currencies and into gold.
• U.S. underperforms foreign markets; gold outpaces tech.
• Yield shock as U.S. 10-year approaches/over 5%, Japanese bond yields spike, and global capital allocation under pressure.

Notable Quotes:

"Fiat currencies and debt as a storehold of wealth is not being held by central banks in the same way."
— Ray Dalio [11:03]
"When you see the correlation of the Chinese currency... it's not a coincidence that it's at the same time gold itself has also appreciated in a near parabolic straight line."
— Julian Emanuel [12:33]

5. Is the Dollar System Breaking Down?

[14:20–19:07] Kelly Evans, Steve Liesman, Julian Emanuel

• Debate on whether global trust in dollar system is waning due to Trump’s policies or larger structural forces (e.g., sanctions, Fed independence concerns).
• Discussion of central banks diversifying into gold, European sell-off in U.S. Treasuries as a potential warning sign.
• Reliability and stability of U.S. system called into question; unpredictable tariff regime may undermine the dollar's primacy in trade settlement.

Notable Quotes:

"One of the things America has provided the world is a reliable and stable system... erraticness of the tariff regime creates a volatility around global trade."
— Steve Liesman [19:07]

6. Volatility, Safe Havens & Defensive Plays

[21:54–26:27] Jeff Kilburg, KKM Financial

• VIX volatility index "up but still in the teens"—suggests the selloff may be short-lived, not a structural crisis.
• Precious metals, especially gold and silver, surge as safe haven; hedge funds and central banks are the major drivers.
• Defensive sector (defense stocks, blue chips) outlook: recent dip seen as a buying opportunity, expect rotation out of tech heavyweights (Mag 7) into more stable names.

Notable Quotes:

"What is the safe haven, Kelly? It's gold, it's silver. And we're seeing a sensational, persistent move in both the precious metals."
— Jeff Kilburg [24:47]
"When you talk about defense in the geopolitical tension that seems to continue to escalate in 2026, I think that's where it makes a ton of sense. Own that."
— Jeff Kilburg [26:40]

7. Foreign Policy Perspective: The Greenland Gambit

[31:56–39:06] Richard Haass (Council on Foreign Relations)

• Critique of U.S. approach: No strategic rationale for coercive push to "own" Greenland; such means undermine alliances for questionable gain.
• Assertive U.S. tactics risk breaking foundation of transatlantic relationships cultivated over decades.
• Argues for creative diplomacy—closer U.S.-Greenland ties are possible without damaging alliances.
• Points to increased Arctic importance due to climate change and great-power competition, but sees no immediate Chinese or Russian threat.

Notable Quotes:

"This mixture of coercion, threat, tariffs—truly, truly, truly counterproductive... it's going to break the foundation stones of America's most important relationships."
— Richard Haass [32:51]
"We've defended Europe for the entire Cold War without owning Europe. We've kept China away from Taiwan without owning Taiwan."
— Richard Haass [34:20]

8. Investor Perspective: Beyond the Headlines

[41:25–51:31] Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research

• Draws parallels to negotiation style: likens Trump tactics to NYC real estate deals—"shouting and bullying" then eventual compromise.
• Sees recent market sell-offs as buying opportunities, expects eventual diplomatic resolution.
• Warns that Japan’s fiscal woes serve as a cautionary tale for the U.S., but doesn't foresee immediate global contagion.
• Gold/commodities boom reflects heightened geopolitical risks and supply concerns; urges caution as "parabolic" moves can quickly reverse.

Notable Quotes:

"All of this is negotiating, Kelly... this certainly has the potential to be negotiated in a fashion that will calm everybody."
— Ed Yardeni [41:25]
"I do feel uncomfortable when I see markets going straight up because very often the next thing they do is go straight down."
— Ed Yardeni [50:48]

Notable Quotes & Moments with Timestamps

• Kelly Evans on the market mood:
  "[The] Sell America trade is in full swing this afternoon." [00:55]

• Emmanuel Macron (via translation):
  "The anti coercion mechanism is a powerful instrument and we should not hesitate to deploy it..." [04:21]

• Ray Dalio on the global monetary order:
  "The monetary order is breaking down." [10:52]

• Richard Haass on U.S. diplomacy:
  "The entire secret sauce of American foreign policy for the last eight decades has been that we get countries to work with us not because they have to, but because they want to out of consent." [33:58]

• Jeff Kilburg on gold:
  "Nothing feels, smells and touches as good as gold and silver in times of distress." [24:47]

• Steve Liesman on the dollar system’s reliability:
  "One of the things America has provided the world is reliable and stable system... the erraticness of the tariff regime creates volatility around trade." [19:07]

• Ed Yardeni on negotiation style:
  "If you were active in New York City real estate, you'd see kind of the background that Trump came from where there's a lot of shouting and screaming... then after that they walk out of the room and smiling and holding hands." [41:25]

Key Timestamps for Major Segments

• [00:55] — Kelly Evans sets the stakes: market turbulence, US-Europe confrontation
• [02:38] — Eamon Javers on Trump's tariff threats, EU reactions
• [07:00] — Julian Emanuel on market risks and policy response
• [10:52] — Ray Dalio at Davos: global monetary order breaking down
• [14:51] — Steve Liesman and panel debate de-dollarization and US reliability
• [21:54] — Jeff Kilburg: volatility, safe haven trades, sector rotation
• [31:56] — Richard Haass: foreign policy critique, diplomatic alternatives
• [41:25] — Ed Yardeni: investor lessons, negotiation parallels, outlook

Takeaways for Listeners

• The global financial system is under heightened stress from both structural factors (fiscal policy, central bank actions) and political shocks (trade threats, shifting alliances).
• Trump's Greenland gambit and threatened tariffs are seen as both a negotiating tactic and a serious test for transatlantic relations.
• Safe havens are surging—gold, silver—while stocks and bonds suffer globally; defense and blue-chip stocks may offer resilience.
• Despite the drama, experts argue much of the turmoil is reversible—crises of this kind often provoke dramatic reversals once diplomacy (and perhaps policy pivots) restore confidence.
• Investors, traders, and political observers should closely watch Trump’s upcoming speech at Davos, US-Europe diplomatic moves, and bond market signals for clues about the next act.

This summary excludes commercial breaks, extended intros/outros, and non-content segments as per instructions.