The Exchange (CNBC) — "Software Slump, Alphabet on Deck, and Crypto Cracks"

Aired: February 4, 2026
Host: Kelly Evans

Episode Overview

This episode takes a close look at sharp selloffs in tech and software stocks, examines the turmoil and opportunity sweeping through the AI and cloud software space, previews Alphabet's (Google’s) upcoming earnings, and tracks the volatility in cryptocurrencies and value stocks. Featuring insights from top investors, CEOs, and strategists, the show unpacks whether the recent bloodbath in leading tech names is a harbinger of further chaos—or a buying opportunity for those betting on the future of AI, semiconductors, and enterprise platforms.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Snapshot and Software Slump

[00:29–02:36]

• Tech Turmoil: The Nasdaq is down over 2%; major software names (Adobe, ServiceNow, Salesforce, DocuSign) have fallen more than 20% since January 1st, driven by fears that AI could disrupt or cannibalize existing software revenues.
• Semiconductors Hit: The semiconductor ETF is down 5%; AMD plummets 17% despite solid earnings, as investor expectations were sky-high.
• Crypto Decline: Bitcoin is volatile, around $70k, down 14% for the week—the largest weekly decline in over a year.
• Host Kelly Evans frames the show: "Frankly, the clout—is it terminal or is it temporary? And where could it be creating some opportunity?"
  (00:29, opening remarks)

2. Guest Conversation: Opportunities Amidst the Software Selloff — Brooke Dane, Goldman Sachs Asset Management

[02:36–10:16]

State of the AI-Build Cycle

• Brooke Dane: "We're still super early in the buildout of AI and that has implications for both the hardware infrastructure and the software stack." (02:41)
• Capex Explosion: Major players (Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI) are massively increasing capital spending. Dane's estimate: "Consensus is looking for capex numbers...up like 40%. We think it's closer to 65% this year." (02:55)

Who Wins in Software?

• Selling is indiscriminate: "The market has taken the first approach of just saying get me out of everything. We think that's the wrong answer." (03:37)
• Opportunity in Data Platform Plays:
  • Snowflake & MongoDB: Not seat-based pricing; revenues grow as enterprises process more data.
    Quote: "Their revenue is going to grow [with more data]. Both those companies have big advantages in this new world." (04:50)
  • IoT/Fleet (e.g., Samsara): AI accelerates upsell/cross-sell for industry operations ("predictive maintenance...safety training").
    Quote: "What their real advantage is is they're embedded in these businesses that need their technical help." (05:05)

Applications & Survivability

• On Salesforce / Application Suite:
  Dane: "The bear narrative is that the long-term annuity value of an application company might not be as big as we thought. I personally think that as we move through this generation that will largely be disproven." (06:41)
• Data Moats as Durability:
  "The data advantage that some applications companies have is real and durable." (07:14)
• Preferred Exposure: Dane is more bullish on infrastructure buildouts and semiconductor equipment (KLA, AMAT), citing continued acceleration in capex and clean room buildouts. AMD’s dip seen as a buying opportunity long-term. (08:07–08:56)

Market Sentiment & Defensive Tilt

• Defensive/re-balancing theme: Dividend/value stocks leading. But Dane is adamant: "AI is the thing. This is the biggest trend we’re going to see for the next decade...you need to be front footed about how you address that." (09:39)

3. CEO Interview: AI Disruption in Legal Tech — Jeff Stibel, LegalZoom

[10:16–16:48]

Reaction to AI Entrants & Market Volatility

• LegalZoom stock down 17% after Anthropic announced legal AI tools.
• Stibel's optimism: "Frankly, [LegalZoom] is a beneficiary and quite excited about what's happening with these generalized systems." (10:51)

Human-in-the-Loop as a Differentiator

• Distinguishing from commoditized AI: “We're focused on small businesses…then be their guardian long term. That means being able to provide cost-effective, deep legal advice… leveraging AI to make our teams…more efficient.” (11:45)
• “Human in the loop” model: “What we're trying to solve is a last mile issue. Anytime you see a platform shift…it is going to be massively disrupted. But the winners ultimately are going to be the ones that are solving problems that long term aren’t going to be solved by this platform shift.” (13:13)

Perspective as a Brain Scientist & AI Author

• On market overreaction:
  “What is happening in the markets, in my opinion, is an overcorrection...I remember being asked in 2001 after [the dot-com] bubble burst...whether the Internet was real and whether it was going to die. And you know, of course it made a lot of companies stronger.” (15:56)
• Long-term focus: "Most people won't understand [platform shifts]...But in the end you will be right." (14:58)

4. Alphabet Earnings Preview — Daniel Newman, The Futurum Group

[18:58–23:51]

Alphabet’s Position in AI Infrastructure

• Durability & Self-Funding Capex: “Google is becoming an AI infrastructure utility…It continues to build its entire infrastructure largely on its own cash flow.” (19:30, Daniel Newman)
• AI Chatbot Competition: On Gemini’s success: "It’s answered those [existential] questions...continuing to see Google search numbers strong, YouTube strong."
• Capex Confidence: "Can they continue to fund CapEx? ...There’s a huge disconnect between what’s happening in business, in enterprise, they are all building on these companies in Google, Meta, Amazon."
• AI Buildout Is Not Zero Sum: “A lot of people want to do this zero sum thing…But they’ll use Nvidia, they’ll also use AMD, they’re going to need all this capacity.” (21:56)

Software: Picking Winners vs. Replaceables

• “This is where you need to be able to pick out the companies that are going to win versus the companies that can be replaced.” (23:04)
• “The rerating is real, Kelly. So the forward multiples will probably never be what they were at their peak.” (23:51)

5. CEO Interview: Aaron Levy, Box — AI, Software Models & the Application Shakeup

[26:39–33:41]

Replacing Enterprise Software: Practical Constraints

• On AI/Automated Coding Revolution:
  “Most companies don't run their entire businesses on [open source or self-made software] because they don't want to take the risk…even if the cost [of developing] has gone down by quite a bit.” (27:19)
• Software Vendors Will Need to Deliver More Value: "If you have 100 times more software getting built…it’s going to cause any existing vendor…to both have to earn their current dollars, but ultimately deliver more and more value for you." (28:43)

The Coming Age of AI Agents

• "In a world of 10 or 100 or 1000 times more agents using technology than people do, I think the value of who has access to the right data...goes up because agents are going to need access to all that information if you want to go and drive any real automation." (29:24)
• Industry Example: “The IT stack will be more valuable because it is the hub for data and workflows that increasingly drive agentic automation.”
• Cautious Optimism: "AI is causing every software company to have to stay on its toes…It is certainly forcing every incumbent to make sure that they are doing more for their customers…"
• Box’s Role: "This is the most exciting moment we've ever had just given the amount of data that enterprises have that they can now tap into with the power of AI agents." (33:41)

6. Value Rotation & Manufacturing: Michael Kantowitz, Piper Sandler

[35:49–39:34]

• Value Stock Momentum: Value ETF at all-time highs, outperforming S&P. "What is helping to finance [cyclicals] is the areas…where expectations are high, but investors are beginning to start diversifying away." (36:17)
• Economic Data & Outperformance:
  Manufacture rebound credited to strong ISM print; housing starts driving industrials/transport. "Happiness equals outcome minus expectations...expectations are quite low for value cyclicals and are quite high for AI-related names." (38:20)
• Sector Flows: "Some of the largest global stock markets...are just the Mag 7 stocks. Little bit of money coming out…can have a pretty magnificent impact." (36:48)

7. AI Coding & Software Disruption Experiment — Deirdre Bosa

[39:54–42:37]

• AI Demo: Built a working dashboard, similar to Monday.com, using AI with no prior coding knowledge: "AI is now letting me, a person who is not a developer and cannot code a line, actually build and do things…"
• Limits to Disruption: Security/critical systems (CrowdStrike, Palo Alto) are different class—harder to recreate.
  • "There are software stocks that sit in between [core infrastructure and replaceables] and are plausibly vulnerable to AI."
• Market Implications: Indiscriminate selling will fade; investors must distinguish "must-haves" from "nice-to-haves."
• Audience Invitation: "What can I buy code right now?…Send me your recommendations." (41:53)

8. Crypto Cracks — Bitcoin’s Rough Week & Outlook, Alex Saunders, Citi

[43:42–46:52]

• Key Levels: Watching $82k (average ETF flow price) and ~$70k (pre-election support). Investors underwater may trigger redemptions.
• No Cascade Risk: "I still view Bitcoin as a little bit of its own beast…People know that it's volatile." (44:31)
• Corporate Treasuries: "They won’t be accumulating at these levels…not a cascade, just the removal of a tailwind."
• Market Sentiment: "Around 70k…is that a level where [investors or administration] feel they would like to do more?" (46:16)

Key Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Brooke Dane (Goldman Sachs): "The data advantage that some applications companies have is real and durable." (07:14)
• Jeff Stibel (LegalZoom): "What we're trying to solve is a last mile issue...the winners ultimately are going to be the ones that are solving problems that long term aren’t going to be solved by this platform shift." (13:13)
• Daniel Newman: "Google is becoming an AI infrastructure utility…It continues to build its entire infrastructure largely on its own cash flow." (19:30)
• Aaron Levy (Box): "I think you're going to have more software, you're going to have more functionality, you're going to have more personalization..." (28:43)
• Deirdre Bosa: "AI is now letting me...build and do things that I couldn't have even imagined possible… I cannot code." (40:06)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Market Overview & Headlines: 00:29–02:36
• Brooke Dane Interview (AI & Software): 02:36–10:16
• Jeff Stibel (LegalZoom, Legal AI): 10:16–16:48
• Alphabet Earnings Preview (Daniel Newman): 18:58–23:51
• Aaron Levy (Box, Enterprise Software): 26:39–33:41
• Michael Kantowitz (Value/Cyclicals): 35:49–39:34
• AI Coding Demo (Deirdre Bosa): 39:54–42:37
• Bitcoin & Crypto (Alex Saunders, Citi): 43:42–46:52

Episode Tone & Conclusion

The episode captures a tense, highly analytical atmosphere—with guests debating the future of software in the face of AI disruption, expressing both caution and optimism. While many see the selloff as an overreaction, there’s broad consensus that AI will permanently reshape both infrastructure and applications. But surviving (and thriving) will require companies to own proprietary data, deliver real customer value, and embrace relentless reinvention. Meanwhile, value stocks and cyclicals quietly assert themselves amid the tech storm, and Bitcoin’s next moves are watched with cautious curiosity.

In a sentence:
The software rout may feel apocalyptic, but bold voices on The Exchange see hidden opportunity for those who can tell the AI revolution’s golden geese from its sitting ducks.