
Sticky inflation has Bank of America predicting 75 basis points of Fed hikes this year. Acting FDA Commissioner Kyle Diamantas on a rule change for ingredients and the ongoing foodborne illness outbreaks. Plus, the name trader Jeff Kilburg is buying on the dip.
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I love my phone, but not my carrier.
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Well, there are 250 reasons to join T Mobile.
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Like what?
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5G data exclusions like taxes and fees apply. You're listening to the Exchange. Here's today's show. Thank you very much, Scott. Stocks are edging lower as we come off the best week since April for the major averages. I'm Kelly Evans and welcome to the Exchange. S and P is down five points right now. The memory trade, by the way, is so last month. Now as security and networking names lead the markets today, Travis Prentice of the Informed Momentum company told us to watch these names a week ago. Sure Enough, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike and even Datadog, which sold off after earnings last week, they're back in the driver's seat. Elon Musk says agent traffic will vastly outnumber human usage of the Internet. The CEO of Checkpoint joins us exclusively to weigh in on that. Plus the acting head of the FDA joins us on the heels of a new proposal that would tighten oversight of what goes into our food. As Taylor Farms recalls products from Walmart and Kroger as the salmonella outbreak grows. We'll ask the commissioner about all of that coming up. But let's begin with the question hanging over these markets was the surprise drop in payrolls we last Friday enough to take Fed rate hikes off the table. This year the market is still pricing in a hike in September. We're joined by senior economics reporter Steve Liesman. I guess, Steve, they still feel like we need a little bit here. As long as it's not, you know, a lot more than that. But what, what is, what is your,
Steve Liesman
I think it takes it off the table. I think it takes it off the table for the week because for a couple of days tomorrow we get cpi. That's going to be more important. I had a very different take on the job market and the data from Friday than most other people. From what I can read, a lot of at least the press talked about this idea of oh my God, minus 23,000, we're losing jobs. That was not my concern at all. When I look at that number, I think of it well within the range of what may be normal. And that's the problem. The problem is that if normal now is somewhere between could be minus 50 to plus 50, that we need to learn to live in a world and businesses dramatically have to adjust to a world where, bottom line, the easy growth from just population growth, that may be gone. And that's a new world, that's a different world, it's a different set of concerns. And whether or not we have an immediate cyclical issue of are we losing jobs, the economy slowing down. The economy, given potential growth rates can actually be doing just fine at minus 23k. Of course you don't want to see negative, negative, negative, but I do not look necessarily at a -23k, which Kelly's on the first print with a massive different error rate around it. Okay. That doesn't seem to me to be necessarily an issue. Which is an issue is how businesses, the economy and investors adjust to a world without population growth, without labor force growth and get used to where the normal is, the new normal.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
We're showing yields on the screen there for 70 for the 10 year. So it is moving higher. So again, yes, if Friday's report was more of a classic sign of the business cycle and we're losing momentum, you'd
Steve Liesman
be going the other way.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Probably be going. And we did on Friday a little bit. You know, yields came in a little bit, but here we are stuck up to 470.
Steve Liesman
Probably following oil, necessarily. One of the interesting things is that we had our retail monitor out this morning. It was pretty good numbers.03 down a tenth. Consumption has remained relatively stable while oil prices have surged. That may tell the Fed that you've got good, strong underlying demand there and you're not having an offset to the supply shock in a demand reduction. So that's a little bit inflationary to get these kind of strong numbers amid the oil price shock.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Perfect segue to our next guest. Adi, above joins us now. He's head of US Economics at Bank of America and we were just talking about Yields are on the rise. Steve's data shows retail spending is strong even in the face of the oil price shock. And you guys still think we're going to get three hikes this year, right?
Aditya Bhave
Yes, that's right. So the way we think about it, and I'm not surprised that I'm broadly in agreement with Steve once again, the way we think about the Fed right now is that inflation's keeping the score and the labor market is the tiebreaker. So the focus is very much on CPI over the next couple of months, CPI and bpi. As long as that holds up, I think the Fed is still on course to be raising rates. Right. So what did we learn about the labor market? What has the Fed been telling us? The Fed has been telling us that the labor market is close to full employment. 4.1% unemployment would be consistent with that. They've been telling us that break even job growth is close to zero so we shouldn't be that worried about the negative 23,000. And finally they've been telling us that wages are not a source of inflationary pressure. That was confirmed as well. So I don't think the story on labor has changed that much. The question is will the stickiness on inflation abate? We think it won't. So we think the Fed will hike rates.
Steve Liesman
Aditya, there's a school of thought out there that inflation doesn't take care of itself. And there's another school of thought that says look through supply shocks because it's like, I don't know, you get, you get a wound, you get a scar, it goes away. Other people say you got to treat it right and that there's two ways inflation goes away. Recession and or rate hikes. Which school are you in? Are you in the. There's a persistence to inflation that if not addressed continues.
Aditya Bhave
So the Fed has to take the supply side for what it is. And the judgment that they're making right now is how much of those supply shocks will abate over the next several months and how much supply driven inflation will remain maybe over the medium term.
Kelly Evans
Right.
Aditya Bhave
So our view is that underlying inflation is somewhere around 2.5% on the, on the core PC. And the way we get to that is we start with the 3.3 which was the latest number as of June. We take out the effects of Iran tariffs and the expected revisions. So if everything goes right on the supply side and nothing new goes wrong, you're still at two and a half. And if you're two and a half on core PCE with the labor market in equilibrium, then policy needs to be tighter than it is.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
I was going to ask you on Friday. We talked to Tom Porcelli who I thought gave a well reasoned case for why core inflation is running near the Fed's target. And there's no need. He's, he's, he's got hold for the rest of this year. He said, I think we're at 2.3%, three month annualized on core CPI. Said, where's the problem? Why should we be hiking here?
Aditya Bhave
Yeah. So here's what makes me nervous about the way the Fed talks about inflation. We know we have a residual seasonality problem which pushes up inflation over the first three months of the year, pulls it down over the rest of the year. And every time we get to this part of the year, the Fed starts looking at three month averages, six month averages, but we know those are going to be a little bit suppressed if you have a seasonality problem. The most intellectually honest thing to do is to look at the year over year rate and the year over year rate is very, very far from target right now.
Steve Liesman
Can I explain what residual seasonality is? For those who may not know, It's. We try to adjust, we try to adjust the data for seasonal changes like people going back to school, coming back to work, going on vacation. But there's still some seasonality left or
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
you over adjust right or.
Steve Liesman
Well, it's not over adjusting is a different problem. That's a problem with the model. But residual seasonality is seasonality that's still there after, even after we seasonally adjust.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Yeah, so. So in last month when you saw this kind of big. Was it big job losses and local government, but that might have had an education tweak to it.
Steve Liesman
Exactly.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Layoff hospitality from the World Cup.
Steve Liesman
But if I could just ask, do you want to say something? I was just going to say I think, Kelly, there's perhaps an underlying hawkishness to Kevin Warsh that maybe has not been well accounted for. I think there may be some rethink. There was.
Aditya Bhave
Yes, I can.
Jeff Kilberg
Question.
Steve Liesman
There was a question after the, the press conference that maybe some of the commentators, maybe myself got wrong. They heard some dovish ness. Which one out of the press conference and now people are rethinking and looking back again what he said and maybe Kevin is a little bit more hawkish than he was initially given credit for. I don't know how the long end reacts to that. The long end might end up rallying if he comes in and cuts rates. That would be Another reason. So I was just going to throw to Aditya this idea of Kevin, when you, when you read the preamble of what he wrote, he makes pretty clear that it's 2%, it's not 2 1/2 percent. That's what made me think about what you said. But do you think that war will step up to the plate and hike rates in order to really get it down to two and not live with two and a half?
Aditya Bhave
So this is the big question, right? I would say there's two questions. The first one is will the committee allow him to do what he wants? Right now we have three, we have three hawks and roughly three doves. I think Paulson, Williams and Bowman are pretty far from wanting to hike rates. And the remaining six, five excluding Wash, I think those five pretty much could go with Waller. Right. So I would listen very carefully to Governor Waller. He's the one that's given the clearest guidance on, on where the Fed is headed. So that's, that's one question. Will Wash get what he wants? But then on Wash he was very clear that the target is 2% inflation. But which measure? I think there he muddied the waters a little bit and that's where markets got a little bit nervous that okay, he might be a lot more dovish than what we previously thought.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
All right, all right, we'll say CPI
Steve Liesman
is not the end of the conversation by any means.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
And what's the quick, quickly. What's the expectation for CPI in the morning?
Nadav Zafrir
I don't have looking for.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Go ahead India.
Aditya Bhave
Yeah, we're looking for 20 basis points on the core. The headline will be softer because gas prices on average were so much lower in July than June. But the core is what's important. And what's even more important than core CPI is the read through to core PC which we'll get after the PI numbers on Thursday.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
All right, Watch the year over year to your point. I'm excited to see what we have now.
Steve Liesman
You're a three month annualized perfect person.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
I am a three month annualized person. I've always been it. I like the trend the near term. I think it could have helped with fighting back during COVID I think that you could have gone with the three month not this year over year by
Steve Liesman
the three months, die by the three month. Because if you get a point five or a point for you to be telling me it's 4% or 5%, it's
Aditya Bhave
fine to be, it's fine to be a three month annualized person as Long as you are in March as well as September.
Steve Liesman
December. That's right.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
I love that was like almost like an econ joke in there if you are in March and September because of the seasonality. I appreciate that so much. Thank you Steve. Thank you. Steve Liesman. Meanwhile, as we've already blown past where most strategists organically originally thought stocks would end this year, Julian Emanuel at Evercore is saying the odds of the S and P hitting 9000 are now rising. Katerina Simonetti is the executive director of Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management. Katerina, good to see you. And by the way, you I think I should keep it and Steve here, you guys think the Fed is going to stay on hold this year?
MacKenzie Seagallo
Why?
Katerina Simonetti
We do obviously, you know, we see how much is at stake here with the Fed decision for Kevin Warsh and so much of it relies on the oil prices and tariffs, but specifically with the prices of oil. You know, when you look at these geopolitical developments in the Strait of Hormuz where there is so much uncertainty there, you know, we, it, it really just depends on whether we expect the price of oil to truly firmly be just somewhere in the range of 95 to 125 or if the developments are positive and the oil price settles back down to, you know, we expected to see which is under 95. And with that, that wait and see attitude is probably something that is going to be, you know, continued until we get a little bit more clarity because you know there's a lot relies on this by the Fed. So our call is no rate hikes for the remainder of this year, but we are expecting rate hikes, at least a couple of them in 27.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
If bank of America is right and we end up with three of them with 75 basis points of tightening. Is that, does that change where you think the S and P goes?
Katerina Simonetti
Well, you know, in terms of the, the rate hikes and what could happen if indeed the prices of oil, you know, is high and that of course is going to negatively affect S and P but just market broadly because this is going to have some such negative pressure on earnings. And we see this market transitioning, especially when we look over the last couple of months, you know, with market trading so high and volatility, you know, that, that investors have not been used to, you know, we absolutely expect, expect that the pressures on earnings and not just on earnings but oil or on earning revisions, you know, is something that could reflect, reflect in market expectations and really, you know, adjust the the year end outcome, you know, as we See it
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
talk through where you see we've gone through this earnings season with incredible numbers. Where is it that you think kind of drives the next, the next leg of this?
Katerina Simonetti
Well, Kellyanne with us, the biggest change when we look at last couple of years and investors are so spoiled almost by hyperscalers and tech and these performance in, in this area that you know, we've never seen before but it all ties to CapEx and capital earnings and we're transitioning now from spending money on AI to really wanting to see how the revenue is going to come in to see, see that path to monetization. So with that, that broadening of the market and looking how the adopters of AI in financials, in health care, in infrastructure are going to really use this new technology in order to firm their earnings, in order to firm their competitive positioning in the marketplace. This is what the path to, you know, really being successful, successful in this market. Because I'm with you, I love the trends, you know, but there is still, you know, there has to be a decent plan for navigating the risk and navigating the volatility and broadening of the market and broadening of the portfolio positioning is the key for doing that.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Two of the places you're overweight were hitting all time highs last week and that's financials and industrials. You're also overweight. Consumer discretionary though, which was much more area where that, where we see some disagreement is that because that has a little bit of exposure to tech. I mean you're kind of with the market weight on tech overall. Why does consumer discretionary jump out at you and which kinds of names? I mean if you can give any kind of broad examples, would you be
Katerina Simonetti
thinking of the consumer discretionary is tricky and this is where it comes to spending. Right. You know, and when we see the, the, the rates of returns that, that this market specifically play in tech, you know, has positioned. That's why we see this increased earnings in travel in consumer discretionary all across the names and specifically, you know, on the other side in Staples, investors are finding these names as unattractive and cyclical. And you know, maybe there is a little bit less excitement there. But more so than consumer discretionary we really see potential in financials because with rates being higher and with expectation that they're going to be higher for longer financials can be very profitable in this environment. But we do you need to exercise selectivity and cautious caution there as well.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
All right, Katerina, good to see you. Thanks so much. Appreciate it today. Katerina, Simonetti. Coming up, agents going rogue. Should we expect more of that as agent traffic on the Internet soars? We'll ask the CEO of Checkpoint how they're protecting clients next. But first, acting FDA Commissioner Kyle Diamantis will join us, fresh off of his news conference with HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The organization unveiling new oversight measures on food ingredients. We'll talk to him about that and the latest on both the cyclospora and salmonella outbreaks. It's a first on CNBC interview coming up next.
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Like what?
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Kelly Evans
This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe@schwab.com MarketUpdatePodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.
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Katerina Simonetti
Today,
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the Department of Health and Human Services proposing new oversight of ingredients deemed generally recognized as safe. A step, the administration says, toward a first ever federal definition of ultra processed foods. The move could give the FDA more visibility into what's actually in our food. And it comes amid outbreaks of both cyclospora and salmonella. We're joined now by acting FDA Commissioner Kyle Diamantis and our food and wellness supporter, Brandon Gomez. Brandon, so much to kick us off.
Brandon Gomez
Yeah. Thanks Kelly. Thank you Commissioner for joining us today. Appreciate it on the news.
Kyle Diamantis
Great to be here. Thanks.
Brandon Gomez
So let's talk about what exactly changed today because you say, right, this is the first step in Defining what actually is ultra processed foods. And look, if I'm one of the CEOs of these major companies that makes these foods like a Coca Cola or a Pepsi, I'm going back to the ingredient list. I'm looking to see what might raise a red flag going forward to the fda. I mean, have you talked to some of these companies about what the policy changes today might actually mean?
Kyle Diamantis
Yeah, look, so today's announcement, it's a major milestone for Secretary Kennedy and President Trump's Make America Healthy Again agenda. What we're doing today is a proposed rule to address a long standing gap in transparency related to FDA's GRAS standards. So if you go back to the 1950s, Congress first created, passed a law, excuse me, setting forth what food additives are. And as part of that Congress said there's this group of ingredients, these grass substances that companies could introduce into commerce without having to notify the fda. That was intended to be an exemption from the pre market approval process. However, over time that grasp pathway has become the primary pathway that ingredients now enter the market. So sitting here today, FDA does not have oversight or knowledge of all of the substances currently in our food supply. So what this regulatory change would do is require that any company introducing a new ingredient into the food supply provide FDA with information about their conclusion that that ingredient is safe, both prospectively and retrospectively. So this is a major initiative, it's a major transparency win for the American people. And we think it's the right regulation. And I would say that industry, from having a lot of engagement with them, wants strong federal GRAS standards in place here. So I think industry is going to largely be supportive of this. And we also know that there's a lot of work on Congress interested and generally recognized as safe. So we'll continue to working with Congress as well.
Brandon Gomez
So you talk about new ingredients and new products that are being brought to market, but if there's anything that's existing, I mean, I'm trying to understand exactly how the policy will play out. Because again, if you're one of these companies that has one of these products, and the intention of MAHA is to remove some of the products that are in the food supply system that are harming Americans. What does that process actually look like? Are we removing products from shelves? What is the actual process?
Kyle Diamantis
So two different processes here. First, on the grass side, think of that as the premarket side of this. Right? So if you look at a new ingredient prospectively, they're going to have to notify FDA whenever they decide to Introduce a new ingredient into commerce for ingredients already on the market. What we're proposing is a more streamlined process where they would notify FDA that they've previously determined that a substance is grass, both prospectively and retrospectively. We will list those substances on our current grass inventory database so that there's full transparency for the American people. Something else we've done under this administration is launch the first systematic post market process. So before this administration took place, there was no systematic process at FDA to review food additives or grass substances before this. Once an ingredient was in, it was in the food supply unless there was a congressional investigation, adverse events requiring FDA to look at it. But we've now changed that and we're systematically taking a look at ingredients, particularly those that moms consumers in other countries view as the most problematic.
Brandon Gomez
So all of this again comes at a time when there's been a lot of question around the manpower over at the FDA too. I mean it sounds like this is another item that folks at the FDA will need to do. I mean, are you going to require more funding, more resources, more bodies in order to do this work? In addition to.
Nadav Zafrir
Right.
Brandon Gomez
You're also dealing with this larger foodborne illness outbreak with the cyclospirasis and now salmonella.
Kyle Diamantis
Yeah. So look, this is going to actually give us greater abilities to work within the resources we currently have. Once we have greater transparency into the food ingredients actually in the food supply, we're able to work more quickly, more effectively and more efficiently when it comes to post market work. And look, I'll just say from a top line perspective, we have the safest food supply in the world, period. Full stop. Americans should feel confident in eating fresh produce, including leafy greens. At this point, FDA remains confident that all iceberg lettuce related to the cyclospora outbreak has been effectively removed from the market as of the July 17th recall.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Commissioner, it's Kelly here and I mean there are a couple of different things going on. First of all, you know I read that book Ultra Processed People. I don't know if you, if you've read it as well. I thought it was phenomenal and I think it changed the way a of lot of people think about ultra processed foods and what we're eating and what are these ingredients like there are these crazy synthetic ingredients where you feel. So I understand why you're making these changes, but I guess it's a total separate issue from that is what's happening with some of these foodborne, what do you call it? Foodborne outbreaks foodborne illnesses. Is it just a coincidence that salmonella is happening at the same time as cyclospora? Do we ever get to the bottom of cyclospora? What's with the jalapenos? Like, I as a consumer feel completely overwhelmed and confused. Do you have the reins on this or no? Do I have to worry?
Kyle Diamantis
No. Look again. Americans should have full confidence in the food supply in this country. We have the safest food supply in the world. What I would tell you is that we absolutely have seen an increase in the cyclospora this summer as a result of this specific outbreak in the Midwest. Outside of that, you know, FDA investigates dozens of foodborne illness outbreaks each year. We facilitate over 500 recalls a year. So there's definitely a heightened narrative right now where people are more aware. And I think that's a good thing. Right? I mean, it's not. It's not out of the ordinary for us.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
More than more aware. I mean, we don't ever want to be aware, basically. We all want to just go about our lives just picking stuff out and never having to worry about it.
Aditya Bhave
Do you.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Has the industry gotten all the information they've wanted from you about what caused this bigger outbreak this year and what steps have been done to prevent that in the future? Was it Taylor Farms? Did we ever identify that for sure?
Kyle Diamantis
Yeah, look. So that investigation is ongoing. We do feel very confident that the iceberg lettuce from central Mexico was the culprit in the large cyclospora outbreak in the Midwest. We have folks on the ground there. We're continuing to investigate that. So the American people should feel confident that FDA is on top of that investigation. What you have to remember is that FDA's role in this is to do traceback, right? So, Ep. Excuse me. CDC conducts the epidemiological data along with states and they transfer that to FDA where we then trace it back to specific farms or commodities. We've done that here in record time. We facilitated a recall on July 17 from Taylor Farms to Mexico. Again, we feel very confident.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
But then there was the source that it wasn't them. And then there was an official walk back from that.
Kyle Diamantis
No, not. Not correct. So no walk back there. What happened is we tested a product. So when separate and apart from the outbreak investigation, we also at the same time increased our border testing of fresh produce coming in on new lettuce entering the southern border. At that point, we had a false positive. So the media conflated that false positive with the ongoing Recall two unrelated commodities in different batches and totally unrelated. But Taylor Farms to Mexico lettuce continues to be what the evidence points to here and in.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
No. Has there been an impact to your agency and the CDC or your coordination efforts from any of the Doge cuts that were made? Because many reports suggest that there has been either a paring back of staffing or a lack of coordination. That would have been the case, you know, prior to all of that.
Kyle Diamantis
So for speaking for fda, I could say confidently that we've had no cuts to our food programs, our food safety programs. Our teams here work tremendously. Again, once the case was transferred from CDC to FDA within a couple of days, we were able to facilitate the recall of this lettuce from central Mexico. So absolutely no impacts to FDA from any Doge or budget cuts.
Brandon Gomez
Commissioner BRANDON, again, you know, it's. I appreciate the vote for confidence, but also there's this reality that there seems to be at least rust on one of the cogs in the system, whether it be from the grower side of things, where the food is being sourced in Mexico, or from the distributor side of things, or from the review process of getting in information disseminated. Right. Because we've seen over 10,000 at least reported cases from the CDC when it comes to cyclospora. I'm just curious to wrap things up, your perspective as to where that rusty cog is and how we actually rectify it. Is it too much consolidation in the food supply system in the United States? What's. What is it from your perspective?
Kyle Diamantis
Yeah, look again. Cyclospora is something we see seasonally. We had 4,500 cases in 2023, 3,500 cases in 2024. Without question, there's been a large outbreak here in the Midwest that we're investigating. But again, cyclospora is something we see seasonally. This was only discovered in the 1990s. So food science when it comes to cyclospora continues to evolve. It's really hard to detect. And again, because of that, illness onset, that can take up to two weeks. It could take up to six weeks total from the time that someone consumes contaminated product with cyclospora until there's a confirmed CDC case. So we are already dealing with a time lag. And then when you talk about fresh produce, by the time those four to six weeks have elapsed, that produce is already off the market. And so we're playing catch up on that. Cyclospora has always been a tricky parasite for CDC and FDA to investigate. But I want to again commend the FDA team here for great work and getting that product off the market as quickly as possible.
Brandon Gomez
All right, well Commissioner, appreciate you joining us.
Kyle Diamantis
Thank you.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Kyle Diamantis with our own Brandon Gomez. Thank you both. Coming up, Apple racing to find and fix new security flaws in its Mac operating system and it's using AI agents to help its engineering teams. We have those details ahead. This year's girls trip to Telluride was the best.
MacKenzie Seagallo
We one upped ourselves with my Sapphire Preferred card and with 5 times points
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on Chase Travel plus 3 times points on vacation homes with top brands, we got this incredible cabin. It was a mansion.
MacKenzie Seagallo
And with three times the points on
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dining, we ordered a Wagyu steak dinner and that pistachio gelato was too good. So where should we go next year? I've got ideas.
MacKenzie Seagallo
Chase Sapphire Preferred the card that's preferred for a reason.
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Cards issued by JPMorgan Chase bank and a member FDIC subject to credit approval terms apply.
Kelly Evans
This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and subscribe@schwab.com MarketUpdatePodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.
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Not every sale happens at the Register Before ATT Business Wireless, checking out customers on our mobile POS systems took too long.
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Basically a staring contest where everyone loses.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
It's crazy what people will say during an awkward silence. Now transactions are done before the silence takes hold. That means I can focus on the task at hand and make an extra sailor too. Sometimes I do miss the bonding time.
Kelly Evans
Sometimes AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
welcome back to the Exchange as we see slight declines across the major averages. After the really strong week we had Last week, the SpaceX shares were back above their IPO price of 135 before turning lower today. They were also trying for their first three day win streak since June. They're coming off their best week since going public. And startup Archer Aviation is soaring after announcing that Boeing is selling three of its subsidiaries to Archer in exchange for a 20% stake in the startup. Archer is targeting commercial EV toll flights. It's kind of like a electric drone helicopter. Anyway, by the end of this year or early next year. And despite today's pop, Archer shares are still more than 50% off their recent highs from last October. Today they're up about seven and a half percent. Let's get to Kate Rooney now for the CNBC news update. Hi, Kate.
MacKenzie Seagallo
Hi there, Kelly. A 7.4 magnitude earthquake has killed at least 47 people in Western Columbia. Officials now say residents are trapped beneath collapsed buildings with more than 20 cities and towns affected. Search teams are digging through rubble after aftershocks do continue right now. Flights at several of the airports there are suspended. The quake was also felt in nearby Ecuador and Panama. Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant among those on hand in South Carolina today for a ceremony to rename Joint Base Charleston as Joint Base Lindsey Graham. The South Carolina Republican served more than 30 years in the Air Force and its reserve components, retiring as a colonel. Graham did die Southern last month at 71. And finally, in an open letter to the global soccer community revealed today, European, North American and Asian federations are accusing FIFA President Gianni Infantino of deception and fundamental breach of trust after he withdrew a plan to sell private equity investors a stake in the World Cup's commercial business. The group now says FIFA acted without transparency, consultation or proper governance. Kelly, I believe we are matching today. This happens more often than not.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
It's like at least one day out of five, I think. Thank you very much. K. Rooney. Coming up, we'll check in with the CEO of cybersecurity company Check Point. We'll ask him how they're defending against AI cyber attacks. And as we head to break, here's what Booz Allen CEO told Morning Call today about the growing risk of cyber attacks.
Aditya Bhave
The speed of the attack, what used
Nadav Zafrir
to take days now takes seconds.
Aditya Bhave
But second, the economics. I mean, for a financial audience, the economics of the attack.
Nadav Zafrir
It used to be that to mount
Aditya Bhave
a very sophisticated attack to hold the
Nadav Zafrir
target at risk, you have to spend millions of dollars. Now you can do it for thousands and even less.
Aditya Bhave
And as the Chinese models begin to
Nadav Zafrir
catch up to our frontier models in this area, it's going to get even cheaper and more widespread spread.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Welcome back. Bot traffic from AI agents surpassed human Internet usage in May for the first time, according to cybersecurity firm Cloudflare. Elon Musk saying, yes, Cloudflare is right. He's going even further, posting over the weekend that AI agent traffic will vastly exceed humans usage. Let's talk to our next guest about that. Nadav Zafrir is the CEO of Check Point and he joins us exclusively today to talk that off about how how companies can protect themselves when there's going to be 10,000 as many bots on the Internet, probably a lot of them trying to, you know, be up to no good. To some extent, totally changing our experience up until now of the Internet.
Nadav Zafrir
Yeah, we're totally in a new era. And I think to say it simply, the first thing we need to do is we cannot trust the agent to secure the agent, but rather we need to create security outside of the model, because these, these agents are not only extremely capable, but they're also very resourceful and they're going to do whatever it takes to reach the goal that we give them. And so we need to create the security in an exogenous way outside of the agent.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
You need to create security and an exogenous way outside of the. What does that mean? What does that look like for these companies?
Nadav Zafrir
Right. So first of all, it means that when, when we ask these agents to do something, we need to be extremely explicit on the guardrails that come with it. So number one, we need to, we're building our own foundational model, which we are actually building across a complete AI defense plane. We just announced our AI network firewall. So it's in the network, but it's in the workspace. Everywhere but explicitly, we need to guard these agents with capabilities and guardrails that are outside of these agents. Whether it's an explicit, different agent, that we're building our own foundational model around security or different guardrails.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
But you're saying we can't have agents fighting agents, so you're building one, but you acknowledge that that's not good enough. It's not good enough to just have better bots from companies fighting the bots that are trying to get it.
Nadav Zafrir
No, I think generally speaking, because attackers are getting access to these capabilities, and that's the reality that we live in. We need to do two things in parallel. The first thing is we need to go back to basics. We need to build on everything that we've done in the last 30 years. This is where we're harnessing data and capabilities and we need to do, go back to basis basics as if our life depends on. At the same time, we need to understand that we need to bring new capabilities, capabilities. So for example, we're harnessing a foundational model that's trained only on cyber and AI. At the same time, we're bringing new capabilities and we're using them to make machine speed decisions so that we can fight AI with AI.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
So do companies need to worry about this you know, if they deploy, which so many do, cybersecurity firms, can they trust that those cybersecurity firms are going to come up with ways. Because you almost referenced this idea that there need to be guardrails around these bots, but who's going to put the guardrails there?
Nadav Zafrir
So, so the guardrails are security companies like ourselves, like Checkpoint and others are creating not just the guardrails, but a platform which in our case we call the, the defense plane. Now, should companies be worried about it? Yes. At the end of the day, it's a balancing act. At one end, they need to move as fast as possible because otherwise they'll be there. Their competition will get further by harnessing AI. At the same time, it's a balancing game so that they can do it with security. That's why we are saying what we want to do for you is to secure your AI transformation. And it's a balancing act.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
You want to see? Yeah, I think a lot of companies are going, okay, can I, can I trust. Or to put it differently, can I blame my cyber firm if there is a breach, if there is a problem? But, but truly, can I partner with them? Can we, can we keep this from happening? Or do they have to go to new and novel steps here?
Brandon Gomez
Or.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
It's obviously, you can't really regulate bad behavior. No one's going to say, well, you know, there's regulate. You have to just protect yourself. So, so I guess that's why the cybersecurity firms and the networking and identification, all of these stocks, we're seeing them take off because suddenly everyone realizes this is going to be the new, most important thing that happens on the Internet is identifying agents and agents, tagging them. Is this a safe agent? Is this activity that we're permitting to happen on the company network or not?
Nadav Zafrir
Absolutely. Adopting AI is existential. Any company on earth and us as humans, we're not going to be relevant if we don't learn to use these tools at the same time. Security, which was always important, is now becoming existential. Right. And we look at this from a complex lens, we're literally between paradigms. We don't know exactly what the next paradigm will look like. We know that the current one, we're already seeing signs that it's not as, as, as strong as we thought it was. And so go back to basics on the one hand, and at the same time, we're starting to, we're starting to test new capabilities, new paradigms, introducing new capabilities across the board.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Yeah. And you Also say here, and I think this is a sign of the times that as well, that your new AI network firewall not only prevents other agents from attacking you, it prevents your own agents from attacking others. There was a story making the rounds over the weekend about agents who were tasked with signing someone up for a fitness class. And so they just went and hacked the system to cancel other people and get into the fitness class. So could you help if I, if I tell my agent, and I've yet to use any of this in this at all, so I, I think this is what people are doing. Could you. If I told my agent, hey, go execute this task, but I want to make sure they do it in an appropriate way. Could your firm help with that, even for me as an individual, or this would be more at the corporate level.
Nadav Zafrir
Now, the answer is absolutely. It's in an individual level and at a corporate level. We have the ability to create the governance level. So to say what is allowed and what is not allowed. We have the capability to actually look at, into every interaction that you have with that agent and not to say, should you be interacting with that agent, but be very explicit about what that agent should or should not do. And we have the ability to go into runtime security. So once these agents are running independently and more and more they will, we need to be able to go into every interaction. And again, it's got to be outside of the model. So we're training our own model. We're making very explicit guardrails so that at the end of the day, you can create this balance between transport, that transformation, but doing it in a secure manner. And, of course, we all got to do it.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
All right, Nadav, thank you. It's good to talk to you about this, to have you on today. Really appreciate it.
Nadav Zafrir
Thank you, Kelly.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Nadav Zephyrie of Check Point. Coming up, Needham's Laura Martin calling Apple the market's a quote, safe space for investors who think AI is being overhyped. But Apple is facing some challenges of its own in the age. Speaking of attacks, we'll dig into that next. Welcome back. Agents are causing a raft of new security concerns, including at Apple, which is racing to fix security vulnerabilities before they can be exploited. Mackenzie Seagalo says more in today's tech check here. On set, no less. Mac, it's good to see you. So what's happening?
MacKenzie Seagallo
Good to see you, Kelly. So Apple's reputation for security is getting a new stress test from AI. Apple rushed out another Mac security fix at the end of last week after researchers found a bug that could let someone get into a machine without a password. Now, Macs that have not installed that update could still be vulnerable. And this is the kind of feature that people use to remotely manage a Mac sitting somewhere else. So think a Mac Mini in a closet or server rack. Those Mac Minis, by the way, have become increasingly popular for running these always on AI agents, which makes this kind of remote setup increasingly common. Now, one researcher previously found around 40,000 Macs was screen sharing accessible over the Internet. Apple tells me that it isn't aware of the issue being exploited outside of test environments and that it's already patched the vulnerability. But that was the second fix to the same part of macOS in just 10 days, and both came outside of that typical software upgrade cycle. And even the fixes themselves can give researchers a new place to start. I spoke to one Palo Alto security firm that took Apple's latest patch, then used OpenAI and anthropic models to reverse engineer what had changed and built this sort of working exploit for Macs that hadn't updated yet. It took them four hours to do that. So you can kind of think of this like a turbocharged game of Whack a mole. Apple closes one issue and AI makes it much faster to understand what changed and start probing for the next one.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Is it true that they used open AI to try and figure out or make some of these changes?
MacKenzie Seagallo
So it's being used on both sides of this equation. And Apple is said to be using tools from both anthropic and from OpenAI to combat what they're finding, but also to just diagnose the sheer volume of imbalance that they're getting because they, I mean, in some cases it's just a slop, these supposed threats that are being identified, so they need a way to sift through that faster. They've also recently established quotas for these kind of white hat hackers that hadn't existed before because just the sheer volume of problems they're finding is really speeding up.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
I do think it's interesting though, pursuant to our discussion with Check Point, that you have to kind of use agents to fight agents, you know, so you need them on both sides. You really. MacKenzie. Thanks, MacKenzie. Seagallos. Coming up, these shares are on pace for their worst day in 12, but they're still up more than 90% from when our trader first told us he was long back in April and today he's buying the dip. We'll reveal the name next. Welcome back to the Exchange intel announcing a $15 billion stock offering to support skyrocketing AI demand. Shares are down about 4%. But our next guest says that reaction is wrong and he's buying more on the dip. CNBC contributor and KKM Financial founder Jeff Kilberg is here now. I thought you might be. Jeff, it's good to see you.
Jeff Kilberg
Good to see you, Kelly.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
So you're scooping it up. You're not worried about the secondary. You want to see them diluting shareholders like you in order to fund the the build out here.
Jeff Kilberg
I think it's the wrong reaction, Kelly. And why I bought more this morning is because this needs your reaction down 4%. And if you think about what is the mechanism of public markets, why did we see SpaceX as have an IPO? It's to access capital so they're not going to burden their balance sheet and possibly damage their credit rating. So they're going out with $15 billion, which is about a 3% to your point. But this is wildly different than where they did capital raised back at $20 with the US government. So here we are five times higher. I think it's a very strategic and smart and just like Andy Jassy, the CEO of Amazon talked about, they have explicit demand. This isn't a speculative swing. So I think what you're going to see and why I sold the 98 puts and bought the 98 calls is us more to synthetically get long here at $98 expiring this Friday, Kelly, at no cost. By the way, why I did that because I think you're going to see the next couple of days a recovery. Of course we have crude oil 5% higher. Of course we have treasury notes moving higher. But I think this intel move is actually be rewarded versus being punished right now.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
All right, I want to ask you about the cyber stocks which are all starting off strong this week as those agentic threats we were talking about continue to kind of make the case for why we need more agent monitoring and identification. Palo Alto Crowdstrike, Fortinet all up over 4% today. Where do you have exposure here and would you be leaning harder into this?
Jeff Kilberg
So if you remember about a month and a half ago in Q2, we were buying these software names, these beat up names. I kind of get a little chuckle. And everyone's now rotating the software. Look at igv, the move it's had. But we look at Palantir, we look at CrowdStrike, we own CrowdStrike in our Gary ETF. And the reason we've been so tactical in trading so much in that Mango growth ETF this year, which has performed so well, is because we were trying to figure out where the puck is going. I think people are trying to catch up to this trade because that dispersion between semiconductors and software. But look at CrowdStrike. Look at also Network Paloto Networks, our second largest hold in our essential for etf. We believe there's going to be reward and it goes back to the conversation we've had. Kelly. I think AI is going to fortify some of these software names, not wipe them out. Of course you are going to see some casualties in software, but I think is really going to fortify some of these names like CrowdStrike and Pell.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
So you're not jumping out, you're sticking in it. And you know, a lot of they've doubled year to date. But I see you're saying that's no, no reason to bail.
Brandon Gomez
What about.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Yeah, go ahead.
Jeff Kilberg
We're not taking profits yet because I think it's just getting going here. People are chasing this trade. Look at Palantir. We bought that in Q2 around 121 25. I think there's more room to run in Palantir. So a lot of these people, it's the momentum trade we see saw the big momentum unwind last month with the Leopold Low and now we're seeing people chase as a rebalancing position.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Leopold Low is like that. I do. What about Berkshire? Because yes, it's up 3% today. The new CEO Greg Abel, putting some of that cash pile to work, buying $20 billion in equities, first net purchases in like three years or something. The market likes it. I am kind of a purist and a traditionalist and I don't know, I think I was more comfortable in the era where they would do nothing for 10 years and then true to form, make some, you know, out of nowhere move. But this is the new Berkshire. And do you think Kilberg, this stock will continue to outperform the markets over time?
Jeff Kilberg
Well, it's been a laggard right in the last year to date or one year. But I'm an owner of Berkshire. We own our essential Ford portfolio. I think this is a really big deal. People are not giving enough attention in my mind. And yes, it's been three and a half years, years since they've been buyers. And think about that 20 billion, Kelly. Some of it was Google about 10 billion. They also bought about four and a half billion back of their own stock. So I think this is a big deal to get a big player like Berkshire off the bench and do it at the time of new all time highs like we saw last week. I think this should be a bell. Wow. There should be a heads up for all those underinvested for all those shorts out there, which I've been kind of taunting the last couple of months. This is the time and I think Greg Abel, the new CEO, Berkshire, Berkshire Hathaway has illuminated that.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
But you know, when you start taunting, you got to be careful that it's not the sign. You know what I'm saying?
Jeff Kilberg
That, oh, Kelly, I've been talking trash on the football field for 30, 40 years. It's the same thing. And I don't talk trash. I know the markets can humble you very quickly. At the end of the day, we are very nimble on this move.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Gary, top 1% large cap growth ETFs Jeff, thanks very much. Good to see you today.
Jeff Kilberg
Thank you, Kelly.
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
Jeff Goldberg, that's it for the Exchange. Stay right there though. I'll join and Brian Sullivan for power lunch after this quick break. You've been listening to the Exchange. Make sure you're subscribed to get each episode every day, same time, same place. Ready for the first day of school at Etsy.
MacKenzie Seagallo
We're here to help kiddos feel like
Host (possibly Kelly Evans or co-host)
it's going to be the best year yet. Find back to school basics like personalized backpacks and custom outfits made to stand out, but not in an awkward picture day kind of way. Celebrate new beginnings with original back to school finds on Etsy. Celebrate being human.
In this episode, CNBC's "The Exchange," hosted by Kelly Evans, dives into three main themes dominating business news:
The episode features deep market analysis, exclusive interviews with leading economists and regulators, and actionable insights on tech and investing trends.
"When I look at that number, I think of it well within the range of what may be normal... The bottom line, the easy growth from just population growth, that may be gone. That’s a new world. That’s a different set of concerns."
"Inflation's keeping the score and the labor market is the tiebreaker. So the focus is very much on CPI over the next couple of months... The story on labor hasn’t changed that much. The question is: will the stickiness on inflation abate? We think it won’t."
"The most intellectually honest thing to do is to look at the year-over-year rate and the year over year rate is very, very far from target right now." – Aditya Bhave
"Our call is no rate hikes for the remainder of this year, but we are expecting rate hikes, at least a couple of them in 27."
Key Segment Timestamps:
"It’s a major transparency win for the American people. And we think it’s the right regulation. And I would say that industry... wants strong federal GRAS standards."
"We do feel very confident that the iceberg lettuce from central Mexico was the culprit in the large cyclospora outbreak in the Midwest... We facilitated a recall on July 17 from Taylor Farms to Mexico. Again, we feel very confident."
"Cyclospora has always been a tricky parasite... It could take up to six weeks from the time that someone consumes contaminated product... So we are already dealing with a time lag. And then, by the time those four to six weeks have elapsed, that produce is already off the market." – Diamantis
Key Segment Timestamps:
"We cannot trust the agent to secure the agent, but rather we need to create security outside of the model, because these agents are not only extremely capable, but they're also very resourceful."
"Adopting AI is existential. Any company on earth and us as humans, we're not going to be relevant if we don't learn to use these tools. At the same time, security, which was always important, is now becoming existential."
"AI is going to fortify some of these software names, not wipe them out." – Kilberg [45:48]
Key Segment Timestamps:
Steve Liesman, on labor market normalizing [02:20]:
"The problem is that if normal now is somewhere between could be minus 50 to plus 50, that we need to learn to live in a world and businesses dramatically have to adjust to a world where, bottom line, the easy growth from just population growth, that may be gone."
Aditya Bhave, on Fed policy [04:56]:
"Inflation's keeping the score and the labor market is the tiebreaker."
Nadav Zafrir, on AI security paradigm [34:05]:
"We cannot trust the agent to secure the agent, but rather we need to create security outside of the model..."
Kyle Diamantis, on food safety [23:11]:
"We have the safest food supply in the world, period. Full stop."
Katerina Simonetti, on market leadership [14:34]:
"We are transitioning now from spending money on AI to really wanting to see how the revenue is going to come in... looking how the adopters of AI in financials, in health care, in infrastructure are going to really use this new technology in order to firm their earnings..."
Jeff Kilberg, on cybersecurity investing [45:48]:
"AI is going to fortify some of these software names, not wipe them out... I think there's more room to run in Palantir."
| Topic | Guests/Speakers | Timestamp | |----------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------|----------------| | Market/Economy & Fed Outlook | Kelly Evans, Steve Liesman, Aditya Bhave, Katerina Simonetti | 02:20 – 16:59 | | Food Safety & FDA Regulation | Kelly Evans, Brandon Gomez, Kyle Diamantis | 19:06 – 28:44 | | Cybersecurity & AI Agent Threats | Kelly Evans, Nadav Zafrir (Check Point) | 33:28 – 40:13 | | Apple Security, AI Arms Race | MacKenzie Seagallo | 40:48 – 42:45 | | Cybersecurity/Software Investing & Strategy | Kelly Evans, Jeff Kilberg | 44:39 – 47:46 |
This episode provided a fast-moving, comprehensive overview of the most urgent issues facing markets and consumers—from Fed policy pivot risks, to landmark food regulation, and the rapidly evolving world of AI-driven cyber threats. Key takeaways:
The show blends market intelligence, regulatory news, and tech disruption in ways essential for both investors and general business audiences.
(All timestamps MM:SS refer to the position within episode content, skipping intros, outros, and ads.)