Podcast Summary: The Exchange – “Tariff Turmoil, Software Sell-Off, and the Old Economy's Revenge”

Date: February 23, 2026
Host: Kelly Evans (CNBC)
Notable Guests: Eamon Javers, Dan Clifton, Deirdre Bosa, Brent Thiel, Steven Whiting, Jeff Curry, Sima Modi, Jeff Kilberg

Overview of the Episode

This episode of "The Exchange" dives into a high-stakes trading day as markets react to fresh tariff uncertainty, a sharp sell-off in software and tech stocks, and a shift in sentiment toward the “old economy” of commodities and energy. The discussion spans the fallout from President Trump’s latest tariffs announcement post-Supreme Court ruling, repercussions for software companies amidst AI disruption fears, and a strategic look at why physical assets and traditional sectors are regaining favor.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Turmoil & Tariff Confusion

• Opening Market Recap:

  • Major indices are down sharply (Dow off 750 points at one stage), software stocks at one-year lows, while commodities rally (e.g., gold up, 10-year yield falls) [00:59].

• Tariff Policy Whiplash:

  • President Trump announces global tariffs to rise to 15% (from 10%) in response to a Supreme Court decision stripping his previous legal authority for tariffs.
  • The EU reacts by postponing a trade deal vote; European officials blast the U.S. for "tariff chaos".
  • Eamon Javers:
    • "Bernd Lang, the chair of the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade, called it pure tariff chaos from the US Administration." [02:43]
    • "A White House official says the president’s social media post earlier today is his response to the EU, that is all countries better live up to their side of the deal." [03:57]

2. Deep Dive: Tariff Mechanics, Market Fallout, and What’s Next

• Dan Clifton (Strategics/Baird):

  • The market had priced in tariffs falling, only for the president to raise rates again, leading to “repricing” and clawback of recent gains [04:58].
  • Winners are mostly Asian countries, plus Canada and Mexico. Clifton stresses most partners get equal or better terms and much political noise is posturing.
  • Effective U.S. tariff rates are going lower for now, likely peaking in 2025. “There’s some winners and losers, but tariff rate is going lower, not higher. And that’s not a bad thing.” [06:31]

• On Tariff Legal Powers:

  • The president is relying on “Section 122”—temporary authority for 150 days—while preparing to shift to “Section 301” for more lasting tariffs.
  • “Section 301 is the closest to that IPA...one that takes some time and you’ve gotta go through hearings...but eventually they’re going to get that power in most countries.” [08:43]
  • Congress unlikely to codify tariffs when Section 122 expires, but Section 301 powers will likely take over [09:25].

• Market Mood & Resilience:

  • Dan Clifton sees the market working this out despite the “confluence of all these factors and more uncertainty after a very good run up and a lot of fiscal stimulus”.
  • “We have this cushion...There is some sort of cushion here in the economy to be able to get through this period of uncertainty.” [10:16]

3. Software Sell-Off and "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis"

• Deirdre Bosa (TechCheck):
  • Viral essay, “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” posits AI could hollow out the white-collar workforce—resonating as software stocks plummet.
  • This isn't just quarterly performance; markets may be pricing in a long-term terminal risk.
  • Circulating Goldman Sachs chart shows parallels to newspaper stocks (2000s) that fell in advance of actual business model disruption [12:35].
  • “[NYT] became part of the disruption, not just the disrupted...if you don’t embrace these tools, you’re going to get left behind.” [13:40]

4. Analyst Reaction: Sorting Software Winners & Losers Amid AI Uncertainty

• Brent Thiel (Jefferies):
  • Framework is underweight software, overweight infrastructure (Microsoft, Amazon, Google), as all “agents will need somewhere to live” [14:29].
  • Not all software is doomed; sees opportunities in Intuit, Procore, Atlassian, and Salesforce after big sell-offs [16:29].
  • Terminal value is the issue: "This is about terminal risk. This has nothing to do with this week’s earnings...It’s going to take quarters if not years to get through this. And there’s not one magical wand..." [15:13]
  • Skeptical of the fear that OpenAI/Anthropic will fully replace enterprise software:
    • "They don’t have the workflows and the data...so there’s a partnership of frenemy relationships." [17:22]
    • “Remember...everyone thought Oracle database was dead. Oracle stock has been phenomenal...we go through these scares.” [19:20]

5. Rotation to Old Economy & Defensive Plays

• Steven Whiting (CIO Group):
  • Defensive sectors (health care, staples, utilities) and income plays outperform.
  • Overweight health care due to previous underperformance and its low correlation to tech [24:09].
  • Investing in energy infrastructure and certain real estate (data centers, not offices); real estate for human occupancy down, for data up.
  • "We’ve done that [income focus] with international...dividends are a little more potent at driving equities...And also you’ve got to have bonds in portfolios, you know, for days like today." [25:12]

6. Housing Market Impact

• Diana Olek:
  • Mortgage rates fall below 6% for the first time since 2022 (now 5.99%), boosting refinancing and theoretically enabling millions more borrowers to qualify [27:13].
  • “If you’re putting 20% down...you’d have a monthly payment of $1,916...last year it would have been $2,105.” [28:05]

7. The “Revenge of the Old Economy” and Commodities Super-Cycle

• Jeff Curry (Carlyle Group):
  • Draws parallels to prior cycles: Tech booms pull capital from the “old economy,” leading to supply constraints and surging commodity prices.
    • “Higher returns in the dot com space cause capital to get redirected to the new economy, choking off the capital...needed to grow the supply base of the old economy. Eventually commodity prices rise high enough and then capital moves back...” [33:18]
  • Reports that hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, Microsoft) resemble commodity producers now due to heavy capex in AI infrastructure.
    • “They’re not infinitely scalable software companies anymore. They’re now heavy asset...like the commodity business.” [40:05]
  • Physical markets underowned, so new inflows produce explosive price action—expect volatility and more “spike after spike” moves in commodities [36:50, 38:27].
  • “If the 2000s were all about atoms, and 2010s all about bits, the 2020s are about bit-atom commodities—AI compute, crypto, etc.” [41:19]

8. Cybersecurity Fears & Analyst Pushback

• Sima Modi (CNBC):
  • Cybersecurity stocks tank amid AI agent fears—Anthropic’s “Claude code” triggers selloffs for CrowdStrike, Zscaler, JFrog.
  • CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz, pushing back: “If you want to build AI, you need GPUs. If you want to deploy AI, you need security. That’s not a hallucination, it’s a fact.” [42:07]
  • Analysts see fears as overblown; largest companies seen as AI resilient (CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks).

9. Market Opportunities from the Sell-Off

• Jeff Kilberg (KKM Financial):
  • Sees major opportunity in software stocks now on steep discounts (Microsoft, Oracle, Palo Alto, Salesforce: down 20–40% in 6 months, but stellar 10-year record).
  • “For the first time these names are on discount...I think you have to own these names. Not going to replace these names, they’re going to complement.” [44:37]
  • Advocates diversified portfolios: “You have to own these industrials and...boring blue-chip names to weather this type of storm...[and] we’re one tweet away from all new, all time highs in the S&P 500.” [46:00]

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Buyer beware. … Any country that wants to play games…will be met with a much higher tariff and worse than that which they just recently agreed to.”
  — President Trump (as reported by Eamon Javers), [02:16]

• “The tariff effective rate is going lower here, at least for the next six months, and it’s probably peak tariff in 2025. We’re not talking about higher tariffs. … That’s not a bad thing.”
  — Dan Clifton, [06:31]

• “Terminal value is the issue…This is as we call it, there’s 10 walls of worry, there’s not one wall of worry. And it’s going to take quarters if not years to get through this.”
  — Brent Thiel, [15:13]

• “If you don’t embrace these tools, you’re going to get left behind…[NYT] became part of the disruption, not just the disrupted."
  — Deirdre Bosa, [13:40]

• “...they’re not infinitely scalable software companies anymore. They’re now heavy asset…like the commodity business…if the 2000s was atoms, 2010s were bits, now it’s bit-atoms.”
  — Jeff Curry, [40:05, 41:19]

• “For the first time these names are on discount, 30% discounts…Not going to replace these names, they’re going to complement.”
  — Jeff Kilberg, [44:37]

• “If you want to build AI, you need GPUs. If you want to deploy AI, you need security. That’s not a hallucination, it’s a fact.”
  — George Kurtz, CEO CrowdStrike (read by Sima Modi), [42:07]

Important Timestamps

• Tariff news & market impact: 00:59–04:02, 04:58–10:56
• Deep dive on tariff legal authority: 06:50–09:13
• Viral AI essay & software selloff: 12:35–14:29
• Analyst downgrade/software outlook: 14:29–20:19
• Sector rotation to defensives: 22:46–26:43
• Mortgage rates drop: 27:13–28:31
• Jeff Curry on old economy’s “revenge": 33:18–41:29
• Cybersecurity selloff explained: 42:07–43:37
• Market opportunities amid the sell-off: 44:37–46:29

Summary Table:

| Theme | Key Speakers | Takeaway | |------------------------------|----------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Tariff Uncertainty | Kelly Evans, Dan Clifton, Eamon Javers | Markets react with confusion, near-term rates to fall, long-term legal routes set up more lasting tariffs. | | Software Selloff & AI | Deirdre Bosa, Brent Thiel, Kelly Evans | Market pricing in long-term AI disruption, analyst downgrades, infrastructure remains solid, application layer at risk.| | Shift to Old Economy | Jeff Curry | Cycle repeating: underinvestment in physical assets leads to commodity booms; hyperscalers now asset-heavy. | | Defensive & Income Plays | Steven Whiting | Health care, staples, international equity dividends, and bonds as stabilizers. | | Cybersecurity | Sima Modi | AI agent fears weigh on stocks, but core security players seen as resilient. | | Opportunities in Sell-off | Jeff Kilberg | Discounted software/tech stocks are opportunities, but maintain diversified portfolio. |

Conclusion

This episode painted a vivid picture of the market’s anxiety and rapid shifts driven by political, technological, and macroeconomic cross currents. Tariff drama underscored global uncertainty, while AI-fueled disruption hammered software—prompting deep questions about business models and long-term value. Yet, a return to physical assets, defensive equity sectors, and income plays illustrated a classic market rotation as old economy assets get their time in the sun. The tone was urgent, candid, and sharply analytical—offering plenty of actionable insight for investors navigating 2026’s stormy waters.