The Exchange – CNBC

Episode: Testing Troubles, Let's Go to the Mall, AI in Aisle Six
Date: December 24, 2025
Host: Kelly Evans

Episode Overview

On this special Christmas Eve episode, "The Exchange" dives into a short but lively trading day where the S&P hits another record high. The program focuses on three main themes: challenges and opportunities in semiconductor manufacturing (especially around Nvidia and Intel), evolving trends in retail and consumer sentiment during the holiday shopping season, and how both technology (especially AI) and inflation are shaping everything from the grocery aisle to year-end reflections.

1. The Semiconductor Sector: Nvidia, Intel, and AI's Future Growth

Nvidia & Intel: The Manufacturing Challenge

(Segment Start: 01:12)

• Headline: Nvidia is reportedly halting a test run of Intel’s new foundry process for advanced chips. Intel stock initially drops 3%, then moderates.
• Expert Guests: C.J. Muse (Cantor Fitzgerald), Matt Bryson (Wedbush)

Key Points:

• CJ Muse:

  • This news is a “slight negative” for Intel’s ambitious foundry business (18A process), but does not derail its longer-term prospects.
  • Apple and Nvidia are seen as key potential customers for Intel’s foundry expansion; the bigger test will come in 2026.

    “We've all been expecting Nvidia and others—and actually probably more likely Apple—as the first foundry customer signed on in 2026. So I don't think this negates positive momentum on the foundry side.” – C.J. Muse [02:53]

  • Intel is trying to transform from inward chip production to becoming a competitive foundry for others—a major business model shift.

• Matt Bryson:

  • Intel's own 14A product is internally focused, while 18A aims to win foundry customers.
  • The critical milestone is the launch and performance of Panther Lake (Intel’s upcoming chip using the 18A process).

    “The more important focus is what does Panther Lake look like, which is their own product that will be the first product out on 18A.” – Matt Bryson [04:30]

Market & Consumer Outlook:

• PC prices expected to rise due to higher memory costs, which could hurt demand.
• Bryson: “Memory costs go up. That means PC products are going to go up. So… It's a tough start to the year for Intel—not due to anything they're doing per se, but just a tougher market over the next six to nine months.” [05:21]
• AI-related chips remain the hottest segment, outpacing consumer PCs in growth.

Investment Picks for 2026 in Semiconductors

• Muse: "We're all in on AI... Nvidia and Broadcom are ripe for outperformance once the calendar turns, don't miss it… We think that, I, whether it’s this week in terms of a Santa rally or, you know, starting Jan 1, we look for those names to really lead the market higher.” [08:40]
• Bryson: Agrees on Nvidia, also likes TSM, and memory/storage names like Micron and Western Digital as AI infrastructure needs increase.

  “They are the arms dealer, if you will… As you get more AI, you need more DRAM, you need more storage. I think they're key beneficiaries.” [09:13]

2. S&P 500 “Melt Up?”: Market Sentiment & Historical Context

The Rally and What Comes Next

Guest: Sam Stovall (Chief Investment Strategist, CFR)
(Segment Start: 10:19)

Major Insights:

• The market's resilience in 2025 has surprised many: quick 19% correction in early 2025 followed by a rapid recovery.

  “This year has been surprising in terms of its resilience… we're up 17.5% through last night.” – Sam Stovall [10:19]

• Earnings have grown by 11% in 2025, projected to grow by 14%+ next year.

What Could Trip the Rally?

• Real risks could come from unexpected negative earnings guidance from “hyperscalers” or key AI chip companies.
• But historically, after a strong positive year, stocks often see winners continue into the following year (momentum persists).

Sectors to Watch & Historical Playbook:

• Top Sectors for 2026: Communication Services, Technology, Industrials.
• Single-Stock Picks he Likes: GE Vernova (Industrials), Lam Research (Tech), Alphabet (Communications).
• “Owning the best performers after a good year, and the worst after a bad year, has outperformed the market 70% of the time.” [11:39]
• Bull Market Duration: The “trip up” year is usually the third; we just passed it. Historically, bull runs last six years.

  “I don't think that we're going to end up with a four-peat, meaning four consecutive years of double-digit gains.” [14:06]

Notable Quote:

“It’s obviously never gospel, but history gives you sort of a weather vane approach as to what will likely happen in the year ahead.” – Sam Stovall [13:07]

3. The Metals Boom: Hedging, Mining Winners, and Inflation

Guest: Victoria Green (CIO, G Squared Private Wealth)
(Segment Start: 17:12)

The “Perfect Storm” for Metals:

• Gold, silver, platinum, and copper all hit fresh records this week; platinum particularly strong due to ongoing industrial demand.
• Multiple tailwinds: weaker USD, falling rates, inflation risks, and geopolitical uncertainty fuel the rally.

Green’s Picks:

• Industrial Metal Play: Rio Tinto (RIO) – "relatively cheap," tied to major future US copper mining projects, strong dividend.
• Pure Play Gold/Precious Metals:
  • Newmont (divesting non-core assets, strong operational leverage to gold price)
  • Wheaton Precious Metals (operates as a streamer—fronts capital to mines in exchange for future assets at fixed prices, diversified & high ROI)

Memorable Moment:

“My mom's having a victory lap here. All the jewelry she bought as an investment, it sure [is] making her feel good about it. So that's a plus for a lot of people on that side.” – Victoria Green [17:54]

On Oil:

• Green is not bullish on oil prices (WTI/Brent) due to oversupply, unless OPEC cuts production or a geopolitical event spikes prices.
• Stock Pick: Chevron – as a "yield play" and for unique exposure in Venezuela and Guyana.

4. Retail in Focus: Holiday Shoppers Defy Gloomy Headlines

Guest: Simeon Siegel (Consumer Analyst, Guggenheim)
(Segment Start: 30:59)

Inside the Mall: Holiday Shopping Feels Resilient, Not Euphoric

• Physical retail traffic is solid, but Siegel cautions that foot traffic “doesn’t always matter” for stock performance.
• Stocks have lagged due to end-of-year "marking" (portfolio adjustments/window dressing) and the emotional nature of holiday trading.

Anecdotes & Channel Checks:

“We introduce our own anecdotal biases. It becomes emotional… But at the end of the day, these are companies, they have numbers, they have fundamentals.” – Simeon Siegel [31:33]

Stock Standouts:

• Nike: CEO Tim Cook’s $3M share purchase seen as a “signal” of confidence, but Siegel warns not all issues are fixed—China remains a weaker market.
• Birkenstock: One of Siegel's favorites; sales are growing via increased units sold, not just higher prices.

  “Birkenstock is among the best growing businesses that I cover. Birkenstock is actually selling more pairs.” [33:32]

• TJX: A perennial winner for off-mall retail.

On Sentiment vs. Spending:

• Consumer sentiment is weak, but spending remains healthy. High prices (housing, insurance) are a burden, but US consumers are “overly resilient.”

  “Healthy or not, the US consumer is overly resilient... Whereas we're very easy to voice our negativity.” [34:46]

• Retail sales and consumer surveys will continue to “diverge.”

5. Year-End Tech Trends: ChatGPT Wrapped and AI Privacy

Guests: Deirdre Bosa, Kelly Evans
(Segment Start: 36:41)

The "ChatGPT Wrapped" Phenomenon

• OpenAI launches a “Spotify Wrapped” style review of user activity—complete with images, poetry, and chat styles.
• Both hosts share how their own Wrapped results reflect quirky, personal queries (from capex to mahjong to oatmeal).

  “I really debated whether we should do this today because you're right, it's embarrassing—your chatgpt history. I didn't want to share this.” – Deirdre Bosa [36:41]

Key Tech Insights:

• AI chat bots are becoming commodities; switching between platforms (ChatGPT, Gemini, etc.) is increasingly easy.
• But, memory and personalization may drive stickiness.
• Privacy warning: By default, memory is on; users must disable if they don’t want persistent data stored.

  “They work better if they know you, but you do give up some amount of privacy.” – Deirdre Bosa [39:09]

• Generative AI is improving very rapidly—even image generation is now highly accurate vs. just a year ago.
• Looking forward: next year's 'Wrapped' could be video, and the AI chat space will stay highly competitive but also buggy/glitchy (especially Gemini).

6. AI in the Grocery Aisle: Inflation, Traditions, and Data

Guest: Stu Leonard Jr. (CEO, Stu Leonard's Grocery)
(Segment Start: 42:57)

Holiday Staples and Steep Prices

• Filet mignon/prime rib is the #1 item—up 15% YoY due to supply/demand, not tariffs. Cattle herds are at 50-year lows.

  “It's $22, $23 a pound, depending on how big the prime is. But… eggs are down like $0.50 a dozen, butter's down a dollar a package…” – Stu Leonard Jr. [44:04]

Shoppers Adapt, Traditions Hold:

• Eggs, milk, butter are all down in price, easing pressure elsewhere.
• Viral products (like their “Cookie Milk” on TikTok) are driving unexpected surges in demand—60,000 bottles projected to sell this season.

AI’s Role in Retail Operations:

• AI is being used for:
  • Traffic & Order Patterns: Analyzing sales bottlenecks, product pickup times, and volume to better staff and stock.
  • Customer Feedback: Scraping online reviews/comments (Reddit, Google) to react quickly.
  • Production Planning: Mining historical sales data to fine-tune inventory and freshness—“how many fillets did you sell day before Christmas?”

Notable Quote:

“We're having ChatGPT go out and scour the entire, you know, Reddit, Google and give us everyday customer comments so we can react to them right away.” – Stu Leonard Jr. [46:18]

Budget-Friendly Tips:

• Chicken, turkey, ham are more affordable holiday mains than beef this year.
• Suggestion: “Have some of your relatives bring something over... Keep your cost down, but it's a great holiday time.” [47:19]

7. Crypto’s New Lobbying Approach: The DC Bitcoin Bar

Guest: Emily Wilkins (CNBC), Thomas Pacquiao (Pub Key Bar Co-Founder)
(Segment Start: 25:47)

The Scene:

• "Pub Key," a Bitcoin-themed bar in DC, becomes a place for both networking and informal education as lawmakers tackle new crypto legislation.
• Targeting staffers, interns, and lobbyists—the people actually doing the policy work.

Notable Quotes:

“The staffers and interns are the ones that are actually doing the work and they have to figure this stuff out.” – Thomas Pacquiao [26:30]

• Bar offers “a comedy club for nerds,” events, and podcasts to help demystify crypto/blockchain and build grassroots understanding in policy circles.

  “There are still a lot of people, lawmakers and staffers alike, who just really cannot—have not wrapped their head yet around this crypto thing, around blockchain, around custody and wallets…” – Emily Wilkins [27:54]

Cultural Shift:

• Crypto is now “mainstream” and policy dialogue is catching up, but major confusion persists even at the Capitol.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• C.J. Muse [08:40]: “Nvidia and Broadcom are ripe for outperformance once the calendar turns. Don’t miss it.”
• Sam Stovall [13:07]: "History is a great guide. It's obviously never gospel, but it gives you sort of a weather vane approach."
• Victoria Green [17:54]: “My mom's having a victory lap here. All the jewelry she bought as an investment, it sure [is] making her feel good about it.”
• Simeon Siegel [34:46]: “For better or for worse, healthy or not, the US consumer is overly resilient. We buy more maybe than we should, but we constantly buy more.”
• Deirdre Bosa [39:09]: “Yeah, they work better if they know you, but you do give up some amount of privacy.”
• Stu Leonard Jr. [46:18]: “We're having ChatGPT go out and scour the entire...to give us everyday customer comments so we can react to them right away.”

Timestamps of Key Segments

• [01:12] — Market wrap, Nvidia/Intel news introduction
• [02:53] — C.J. Muse on chip sector & Intel’s strategy
• [04:30] — Matt Bryson on Intel’s foundry shift and Panther Lake
• [06:51] — Investment outlook in chips sector (AI focus)
• [10:19] — Sam Stovall on S&P 500, bull market history
• [17:12] — Metals boom, favorite picks in mining (Victoria Green)
• [21:33] — Oil outlook & “yield plays” in energy
• [25:47] — Crypto on Capitol Hill, Pub Key bitcoin bar
• [30:59] — Retail/mall update, Nike/Birkenstock commentary
• [33:32] — Deep dive on retail winners and consumer sentiment
• [36:41] — Year-end tech trends, ChatGPT Wrapped, AI privacy
• [42:57] — Groceries: beef inflation, viral products, AI in grocery

In Summary

This episode of "The Exchange" captures the intersection of markets, main street, and technology heading into 2026. Market optimism abounds for stocks and AI-driven chipmakers, but rising inflation is reshaping everything from what gets cooked at holiday tables to which goods go viral on TikTok. AI’s stealthy integration into business decision-making—and even in the way we remember our own digital habits—emerges as a recurring theme from the grocery aisle to the tech wrap-up. Meanwhile, crypto finds itself in need of some old-school, in-person education on the Hill, as D.C. grows up with Bitcoin. All in all, a vibrant year-end snapshot of American consumers, innovation, and markets in flux.