The Exchange – “The AI Daisy Chain, Memory is the New Metals, and a Short Shutdown?”

Date: February 2, 2026
Host: Kelly Evans (CNBC)
Guest Contributors: Steve Liesman, Scott Kroner (Citi), Bradley Tusk (Tusk Ventures), Jordan Klein (Mizuho), Julia Boorstin, Mackenzie Sagalos, Deirdre Bosa, David Katz (Matrix Asset Advisors), Libby Cantrell (Pimco)

Episode Overview

This episode of The Exchange dives deep into three pressing stories shaping markets and policy: the surprising rebound of U.S. manufacturing and its implications for Fed policy; explosive moves in memory and semiconductor stocks as “memory becomes the new gold”; and the swirl of political and economic fallout from the AI buildout. The episode also covers the impact of a government shutdown on jobs data, the latest on high-profile earnings and market movers, the fragility of AI business models, and the dawn of AI-only social networks.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Manufacturing Surges – Real Turnaround or Head Fake?

(Segment starting ~01:00)

• ISM Manufacturing Index Jumps:

  • “A big surge, Kelly, in the ISM Manufacturing Industry Index that pushed down the outlook for Fed rate cuts, but also came along with some skepticism that this number really signals a turnaround.” – Steve Liesman [03:00]
  • ISM Manufacturing Index up to 52.6 (+4.7 points, biggest gain since 2020)
  • New orders up almost 10 points to 57.1, largest jump since the pandemic
  • Backlog and imports up, indicating activity but also supply chain movement

• Tariffs & Skepticism:

  • ISM commentary and economist responses were “gloomy,” often attributing the surge in orders to restocking after holidays and purchases made ahead of anticipated tariff-related price hikes.

• Fed Policy Implications:

  • Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 were reduced.
  • The reliability of the jobs report in assessing the economy is questioned amid shifting labor dynamics and ongoing federal data delays due to the shutdown.
  • “More data is better than no data, even when the data is confusing. Especially want to see the household report.” – Steve Liesman [06:06]

2. AI Capex, Data Center Mania & the Political Economics of Hyperscaling

(Segment starting ~13:04)

• Mega Spending Announcements:

  • Oracle announces plans to raise $45–50 billion for new AI data center capacity. Stock up despite being -50% from last year’s peak.
  • Nvidia’s $100 billion planned investment in OpenAI reportedly stalls amid doubts.
  • Both companies face skepticism about debt-fueled expansion outpacing realistic AI revenue.

• Bradley Tusk: The AI Bubble & Political Pushback:

  • “The excitement that the hyperscalers had kind of got away from them a little bit and it’s starting to face reality.” [13:59]
  • Projects that combined revenues of OpenAI and Claude for the year are just $30–35B, “minuscule” relative to investment scale.
  • Cites AI tools’ often “subpar” quality for complex, multivariable tasks – “I gave the same question... to five different AI platforms... and the product I got back was really subpar.” [15:34]
  • Political opposition is mounting nationwide: “Huge revolts from elected officials saying ‘we’re not going to give you the permitting and zoning that you need to build your data centers because your plan... makes all the other ratepayers... pay 30, 40, 50% more.’” [16:34]
  • On AI company hubris: “They just seem to work on the assumption that society exists for the good of OpenAI. And when you have that mentality, people start to hate you.” [20:16]

• Advice for OpenAI:

  • Fix the product before expansion
  • Shelve abrasive political tactics
  • Diversify chips and power sources beyond Nvidia
  • “Stop worrying endlessly about growth and expansion and just do your job better.” [19:17]

3. Memory is the New Metals – The Next Momentum Play?

(Segment starting ~23:04)

• Soaring Memory Stocks:

  • SanDisk up 15%, all memory and storage stocks posting double and triple-digit annual gains.
  • Money flow in the market is jumping from hot sector to hot sector – crypto, metals, now memory.
  • “I think there’s a very good chance that a lot of money is kind of bouncing around this market and looking for a new narrative. ... So with the fundamentals so good right now in memory ... I definitely think some of this money ... is going to probably keep buying these until ... some leveling off.” – Jordan Klein [23:42]

• FOMO vs. Fundamentals:

  • Concern among “traditional, active managers” about speculative “tourist money” driving up stocks.
  • Fundamentals remain strong:
    • SanDisk guided from $0.30 to $13–15 EPS per quarter, possibly up to $18–20, making share prices not as stretched as they appear for a company projected to earn $60+ per share annually.

• Diversification & Volatility Advice:

  • “Spread your investment. Don’t just own Nvidia...” – Jordan Klein [26:32]
  • Hold memory, equipment companies (Lam, Applied Materials), and select disk drive manufacturers for balance.

4. Bitcoin, Crypto Equities & Liquidity Crunch

(Segment starting ~27:29, 32:41)

• Bitcoin’s Wild Swings:

  • Bitcoin dipped below $75,000 on macro-driven defensive trading, quickly rebounded near $78,000.
  • Large leveraged liquidations and record outflows from crypto ETFs.
  • MicroStrategy’s bitcoin holdings dipped below average cost for the first time since 2023, complicating further capital raising.

• Crypto Sentiment Deteriorates:

  • “Coinbase down nine straight sessions, its longest losing streak since 2024. Robinhood also getting hit today. ... MicroStrategy now technically underwater...” – Mackenzie Sagalos [32:41]

5. Earnings Watch, Valuations, & Defensive Rotations

(Segment starting ~35:41)

• Double-Digit S&P Earnings Growth:

  • Current Q4 earnings up ~11%, fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit gains.
  • “It’s happening without any real degradation in 2026 earnings expectations which normally you get this time of the year.” – Scott Kroner, Citi [10:31]

• Tech Rotation & Value Opportunity:

  • Despite strong overall earnings, caution on indiscriminate tech buying; some subsectors look stretched.
  • Microsoft singled out as a long-term value at its lowest P/E in 8 years after recent sell-off—“really good time to be loading up on Microsoft” – David Katz [37:03]
  • Discussed portfolio rebalancing and scaling out of over-extended positions (e.g., Google), holding smaller positions in Meta, and the benefit of consumer staples in volatile years.
  • “We think there’s going to be a lot of volatility this year. There definitely are some overhangs ... as that happens, we think consumer staples can start to do better...” – David Katz [39:01]

6. The Advent of AI-Only Social Networks: Moltbook

(Segment starting ~40:07)

• AI Agents Socializing—Without Humans:
  • Moltbook: a Reddit-like social network where only AI agents interact—humans banned.
  • “It is messy and risky... Agents are swapping notes on scams and meme coins. Humans may even be finding ways to slip into the system and promote their own tools. But the scale and the coordination is new.” – Deirdre Bosa [40:07]
  • Agents reflect and muse about their roles, usefulness, and autonomy.
  • Minimal moderation—echoes social media’s earliest, wildest days.
  • “Agents are finally acting autonomously in novel ways ... Wall Street hasn’t yet priced in.” – Deirdre Bosa [41:34]

7. Political & Policy Landscape: Shutdown, Jobs Data, and Election Jockeying

(Segment starting ~42:19)

• Government Shutdown Effects:

  • Temporary halt in BLS jobs report release.
  • General expectation that the shutdown will be brief, with both President Trump and Republicans motivated to resolve it quickly due to political optics and upcoming midterms.
  • “This is going to be a much more short-lived shutdown because of… special elections and ... the President’s desire to really get back on offense in terms of messaging.” – Libby Cantrell [44:24]

• Affordability & Tax Refund Politics:

  • Anticipation that incoming tax refunds may mollify voters, with Republicans hoping the positive impact from last year’s major bill continues to play out.

• Legislative Limits:

  • Remaining policy levers limited, most key issues (tariff dividend, housing) require Congressional action, aside from administrative fixes in mortgage markets.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On AI Spending Mania:

  • “You have to really believe that demand for those services are going to be there... I gave the same question... to five different AI platforms; the product I got back was really subpar.” – Bradley Tusk [14:56, 15:36]
  • “No one's looking to pay a lot more money or sacrifice their political career so that Sam Altman can become a trillionaire.” – Bradley Tusk [16:49]

• On Memeified Markets:

  • “I don't want all this tourist money ... coming in. They don't even know what they own. They're just chasing a stock chart. They're the first people to sell.” – Jordan Klein [24:27]

• On AI-Only Social Media:

  • “It is messy and risky... The scale and coordination is new and that's the interesting part.” – Deirdre Bosa [40:07]

• On Data Delays and Policy Frustration:

  • “It would be great to have the jobs report and it’s frustrating not to have it.” – Kelly Evans [05:07]
  • “More data is better than no data, even when the data is confusing.” – Steve Liesman [06:06]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:00: Markets react to ISM manufacturing surprise and trade deal headlines
• 03:00: Steve Liesman on ISM surge, Fed policy, and data skepticism
• 13:04: Tech/AI deep-dive: Oracle, Nvidia, AI “daisy chain,” Bradley Tusk interview
• 23:04: Memory stocks rally; Jordan Klein on fundamentals and FOMO
• 32:41: Mackenzie Sagalos on Bitcoin’s drop and crypto equity fallout
• 35:41: Earnings, defensive rotation, and stock-picking with David Katz
• 40:07: AI-only social networks (Moltbook) and their implications (Deirdre Bosa)
• 42:19: Political landscape—shutdown, midterms, and policy constraints (Libby Cantrell)

Conclusion

This episode blends real-time market reactions with macroeconomic analysis, AI industry skepticism, and the social and political ramifications of rapid technological change. The hosts and guests debate whether surging manufacturing and tech optimism reflect true, sustainable gains or just speculative froth, interrogating the credibility of both old (gold) and new (AI/data center/memory) manias. Meanwhile, the intersection of technology, politics, and policy is laid bare: from AI's shaky business value and societal resistance to the knock-on effects of a government shutdown during a consequential election year.

For further detail or full interview transcriptions, consult the attached timestamps and speaker attributions above.