The Exchange – Episode Summary
Date: October 7, 2025
Host: Dominic Chu (in for Kelly Evans)
Podcast: CNBC – The Exchange
Episode Title: The AI Economy, Shutdown hits Housing & Potential Earnings Winners
Episode Overview
This episode dives deep into three dominant stories moving the markets:
- The evolving economy of artificial intelligence (AI) and key partnerships impacting the sector
- Fallout from the ongoing government shutdown, especially as it hits the real estate and housing markets
- An earnings season preview, including non-AI stocks poised for a rebound
Top guests include Aaron Levie (CEO of Box), Karen Finerman (Metropolitan Capital Advisors), Don Peebles (Peebles Corp.), and market analysts on Oracle, UnitedHealth, and other movers.
Key Topics & Discussions
1. The AI Ecosystem and Agentic AI (01:04–10:57)
IBM, Anthropic, OpenAI Partnerships
- IBM is up 3% on its Anthropic AI deal.
- Box has gained 26% since joining the OpenAI ecosystem.
Interview: Aaron Levie, CEO & Co-founder, Box
- AI’s Strategic Role:
- “The general transition to an AI and agentic future in the enterprise is continuing to pick up massive amount of steam.” (02:50, D)
- Box’s AI Strategy:
- Box went “all in” on AI, leveraging rich enterprise data for automation and advanced content handling.
- Excited about OpenAI agent builder platform: “Let customers take the full power of the documents and content inbox and be able to build agents around that content within the OpenAI ecosystem.” (03:30, D)
Monetization in AI and SaaS
- New business models: moving from seat-based to volume/consumption-based billing.
- “AI agents now allow us to go and solve all new use cases and workflows, which really have a kind of unbounded upside because they’re no longer limited by the number of employees inside the company.” (04:41, D)
Security Concerns
- Data security and access control are paramount.
- “You have to make sure that your data and your infrastructure is organized… to let you safely take advantage of AI agents.” (07:26, D)
- Box is focusing on robust permissions to avoid data leakage when AI agents interact.
Industry Partnerships: The AMD–OpenAI Template
- Uncertainty remains whether equity-based deals like AMD–OpenAI will become standard.
- “Right now we are in the defining period that might last for decades and decades of economic value creation.” (09:31, D)
- Market will continue to be dynamic and surprise with creative, one-off transactions.
2. AI Trade Frenzy, Gold & Crypto, and Valuations (11:27–17:45)
Interview: Karen Finerman, CEO, Metropolitan Capital Advisors
- AMD–OpenAI Deal Analysis:
- Creative, milestone-driven deals offer strategic value.
- “Frenzy… I have no doubt about AI being enormous for our lives for a long time. What I am not so comfortable with anymore is the valuations…” (12:26, E)
- Are High Valuations the ‘New Normal’?
- For some tech names (Nvidia, Netflix), elevated prices are justified by growth.
- “My sort of threshold for what is value has somewhat changed…” (13:28, E)
- Gold vs. Bitcoin:
- Favors Bitcoin as “digital gold,” citing persistent deficits, dollar devaluation, and pro-crypto U.S. administration.
- “I do think when you add in all of those same macro conditions… I prefer [Bitcoin] over gold and I know it's hard to, you know, on a… DCF model. How do you think about it?” (14:44, E)
- Earnings Season Outlook:
- Bullish on banks despite recent run-ups; especially JP Morgan, Citibank, and regionals.
- “Credit quality is… still very good. We're seeing capital markets that are just really very active…” (15:58, E)
3. Real Estate: Shutdown, Investors, Regional Opportunities (20:56–30:12)
Housing Market Data (Diana Olik)
- Investors bought a third of single-family rentals in Q2 2025—a five-year high.
- Institutional investors' share still low, but shifting towards “build for rent” vs. buying existing stock.
- States like Hawaii, Alaska, Montana, Maine: high investor ownership due to tourism.
Interview: Don Peebles, CEO, Peebles Corp.
- Shutdown Impact:
- “Bringing a lot of instability to the marketplace. The market’s already struggling… The government shutdown adds uncertainty.” (23:16, C)
- Regional Analysis:
- Washington, D.C. and N. Virginia hardest hit due to dependency on federal workforce and high office vacancies.
- “Washington, D.C. metro area… is going to be devastated. It’s already struggling with vacancy rates well into the 20s for commercial office buildings.” (24:02, C)
- Florida Real Estate:
- South Florida luxury market constrained by limited new supply, high insurance costs, and aging inventory.
- New zoning (Live Work) incentivizes affordable development.
- Tampa, Jacksonville, Daytona Beach, West Palm Beach: still affordable, with signs of continued growth.
- Investment Opportunities:
- “The best place to do business… I think Washington, D.C. because it’s so down… San Francisco, on the upswing… Florida… Charlotte… Atlanta. I also like Northern Virginia… Dallas and Austin, Texas.” (28:43, C)
4. Earnings Season & Stock Picks (33:35–36:59)
Victoria Green, G Squared Private Wealth
- Non-AI Earnings Plays:
- UnitedHealth: “This is the turnaround quarter… not just cost cutting, but… revenue growth driven by a better medical loss ratio.” (33:35, H)
- Goldman Sachs: Playing to dealmaking strengths and recent regulatory/tax reform, “executing on multiple cylinders.” (34:41, H)
- Coinbase: Leveraging the crypto boom, additional products (e.g., Amex card), highly correlated to Bitcoin’s rise. (35:59, H)
Notable Quotes & Timestamps
- “The transition to an AI and agentic future in the enterprise is continuing to pick up massive amount of steam.”
— Aaron Levie (Box), 02:50 - “AI agents now allow us to go and solve all new use cases and workflows, which really have a kind of unbounded upside because they're no longer limited by the number of employees inside the company.”
— Aaron Levie, 04:41 - “There's a little bit of a catch, which is you have to make sure that your data and your infrastructure is organized in a way to let you safely take advantage of AI agents.”
— Aaron Levie, 07:26 - “Frenzy… I have no doubt about AI being enormous for our lives for a long time. What I am not so comfortable with anymore is the valuations…”
— Karen Finerman, 12:26 - “I do think when you add in all of those same macro conditions… I prefer [Bitcoin] over gold…”
— Karen Finerman, 14:44 - “Bringing a lot of instability to the marketplace. The market’s already struggling… The government shutdown adds uncertainty.”
— Don Peebles, 23:16
Other Markets and Industry News
Oracle’s AI-Cloud Profitability (37:47–40:36)
- Oracle under pressure (down ~6%) after a report notes razor-thin margins in cloud business, high costs for AI infrastructure.
- Earnings growth substantial, but margin concerns linger heading into Oracle AI World.
- Analysts eye how much AI-related capex dampens short-term profitability, versus long-term upside.
Crypto, Prediction Markets & Tokenization (41:36–42:07)
- ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) invests $2B in Polymarket, betting on tokenization as future of global capital flows.
- “What I see the tokenization doing is really… rewiring the flow of the banking system.”
— Jeffrey Sprecher, ICE CEO, 41:36
Transportation Rapid Fire
- Airline delays and government shutdown strain air traffic controller staffing (43:14–44:29)
- Tesla might drop Model Y prices; used car market stays robust due to higher new car prices.
Structure & Segment Timestamps
| Segment | Timestamp | |---------------------------------------------|--------------| | AI Economy, Box’s AI Partnerships | 01:04–10:57 | | AI Trade, Valuations, Gold, Crypto, Banks | 11:27–17:45 | | Real Estate & Shutdown Impacts | 20:56–30:12 | | Earnings Preview (non-AI picks) | 33:35–36:59 | | Oracle’s Cloud Profitability | 37:47–40:36 | | ICE & Polymarket, Tokenization | 41:36–42:07 | | Transport Rapid Fire | 43:14–46:38 |
Conclusion & Tone
The episode delivers a rapid, data-rich exploration of the top business currents shaping the day—from AI’s new monetization models and tech stock valuations, to real estate market pain, the latest on Oracle’s AI push, and tactical plays for the looming earnings season. The exchanges between guests balance measured optimism with realism; most acknowledge both the historic potential and the mounting risks in overheated sectors, underscored by caution around valuations, profit margins, and economic policy uncertainty.
For those who missed it:
You’ll come away understanding the major moves in AI partnerships and business models, the practical effects the government shutdown has on housing and aviation, and where top investors see both the dangers and the hidden opportunities as markets straddle cycles of disruption and comeback.