Podcast Summary: The Exchange 10/16/25 (CNBC)

Date: October 16, 2025
Host: Joe Kernen (in for Kelly Evans)
Notable Guests: Eamon Javers, Dan Clifton, Jared Holtz, Savita Subramanian, Iso Kant, Bertha Coombs, Sima Modi, Steve Kovac, Alex Sherman

Overview

This episode of "The Exchange" delivers a comprehensive update on the intersection of geopolitics, fiscal policy, market trends, and sector outlooks on a pivotal trading day. Host Joe Kernen guides listeners through the latest developments in the U.S.-Russia-Ukraine triangle, Wall Street’s response to stimulus and shutdown threats, a wave of biotech optimism, AI-driven industrial revolutions, and key corporate moves from the tech, transportation, and data infrastructure sectors. The episode features expert commentary, breaking news, and in-depth analysis of forces shaping market sentiment as 2025's final quarter gains momentum.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Market Recap & Macroeconomic Backdrop

[00:58] - [02:25]

• Stocks were volatile, pulling back from earlier gains due to mixed earnings, trade tensions, and bond yields sliding to multi-month lows.
• Gold headed for its 48th record close of 2025; silver also hit highs.
• Bitcoin slumped below $109,000.
• Regional banks faced pressure as the KRA Regional Bank ETF dropped more than 4%.

Quote:
"Stocks... losing some earlier gains as investors juggle the latest round of earnings against trade tensions and falling yields."
— Joe Kernen [00:58]

2. U.S.-Russia-Ukraine Tensions & White House Diplomacy

[02:25] - [06:20], [19:46] - [23:09]

• President Trump held a publicly acknowledged, "lengthy" live-tweeted call with President Putin, signaling potential imminent diplomatic developments.
• A key agenda item: whether to supply Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, capable of reaching Moscow.
• The White House felt momentum after hostage releases in Gaza, seeking to carry “man of peace” energy into Russia-Ukraine.
• Post-call, Trump announced on social media:
  • Next week’s high-level advisor meeting (led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio).
  • A planned Trump-Putin summit in Budapest to "see if we can bring this inglorious war... to an end."
  • Forthcoming Oval Office meeting with President Zelensky.

Notable Quotes:
"The President is not only speaking to Vladimir Putin, but he's also apparently live tweeting that conversation..."
— Eamon Javers [02:25]

"The President is a guy who understands leverage... he feels like the Russian situation will be solved once the oil price out of Russia reaches a certain threshold."
— Eamon Javers [04:34]

"We agreed that there will be a meeting of our high level advisors next week... President Putin and I will then meet in an agreed upon location, Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can bring this inglorious war... to an end."
— Eamon Javers, quoting President Trump [19:46]

Memorable Exchange:
"Are we there yet? That's a familiar, that's a familiar sound."
— Joe Kernen [05:42]

3. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Tailwinds, Government Shutdown Risks

[07:04] - [13:39]

• Dan Clifton (Strategas Research/Baird) highlighted pipeline of fiscal and monetary stimulus:
  • Corporations recently received $100 billion in retroactive tax cuts via the "one big beautiful bill" (Obbb).
  • Consumer-side tax refunds of $150 billion slated for early 2026.
  • The Fed indicated an imminent rate-cutting cycle and an end to quantitative tightening.
  • These tailwinds help markets withstand trade shocks and shutdown noise.
• Government workers could soon feel pain as shutdown drags, increasing pressure for a resolution — especially among low-paid aides and federal employees in swing states.

Notable Quotes:
"When you look at the pipeline of fiscal monetary stimulus coming down the road, companies just received $100 billion... You're going to get $150 billion of tax refunds on the consumer side in February, March and April." — Dan Clifton [07:04]

"You could sit here and say, oh, the U.S. put in port fees or they're sanctioning their drone makers... but that's not proportional to what the Chinese did. My guess is that will be walked back."
— Dan Clifton on China rare earth maneuvers [12:36]

4. Biotech Sector Momentum & M&A Potential

[15:22] - [19:31]

• XBI Biotech ETF reached a three-year high, outperforming the S&P 500 in 2025.
• AI offers a long-term narrative for the sector, though short-term impacts are limited.
• Positive clinical data is driving sentiment, and big pharma is increasingly active in M&A.
• RFK Jr.'s vaccine rhetoric hit sentiment earlier in the year but has faded; Sarepta’s struggles seen as a one-off.
• Strongest M&A year yet expected, with about 20 sizable transactions annualized.

Notable Quotes:
"If you want to have a long term view on biotech because you think AI is going to be very significant... that's the right call."
— Jared Holtz [15:59]

"There's M&A premium here... we're headed towards what could be the most significant M&A year yet."
— Jared Holtz [18:20]

5. AI’s Broadened Impact & Sector Rotation

[28:30] - [33:30]

• Savita Subramanian (BofA Securities) on AI and market dynamics:
  • AI’s biggest impacts now seen in power/utilities and industrials (tooling for data centers).
  • Healthcare sector upgraded due to AI-enabled margin efficiencies.
  • Downgraded consumer discretionary due to weak white-collar job growth among 25-45 year-olds, pressuring consumption.
  • Market has high valuations with little risk priced in, making near-term positive surprises hard.
  • Year-end S&P 500 target lowered to 6,300; broadening rally may be pushed into 2026 if tariff/policy uncertainty persists.

Notable Quotes:
"We just upgraded health care from underweight to overweight about a week ago... it's actually one of the sectors where the use cases around AI helping efficiency are really, really abundant."
— Savita Subramanian [29:13]

"I think the bar is really high today. And this is happening on top of... a really, really expensive market environment where... we're not necessarily seeing a lot of risks priced in."
— Savita Subramanian [30:54]

6. Breakout Corporate & Sector Moves:

Transportation & Logistics:

• JB Hunt surged 21% on robust intermodal profits ([24:38]), while United Airlines fell ~5.5% on mixed results.

Tech and Cloud:

• HP shares slid ~10% after offering a cautious FY26 outlook, but hiked its dividend ([24:38]).
• Oracle spiked on positive cloud infrastructure commentary; gross margins bolstered by 117% YoY infrastructure growth ([33:39]).

AI Infrastructure:

• Poolside and CoreWeave unveiled a massive West Texas data center powered by local energy. CEO Iso Kant emphasized West Texas’s strategic advantages and the urgent need for reliable energy for AI ([42:48]).

National Security & TikTok:

• MGX (Abu Dhabi-backed) emerged as a key player in U.S. tech infrastructure and the TikTok U.S. buyout, raising questions about foreign influence in U.S. strategic assets ([35:13]).

Breaking News Bites:

• President Trump and RFK Jr. launching an IVF access initiative ([26:12]).
• Apple & NBCUniversal bundling Apple TV & Peacock at a discount ([26:59]).
• Giorgio Armani appoints a new CEO and plans minority stake sale ([27:07]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Geopolitics & Diplomacy:

• "He is putting all the economic leverage on Russia that he can... once the oil price out of Russia reaches a certain threshold... they won't be able to finance their war machine any further."
  — Eamon Javers [04:34]
• "We agreed that there will be a meeting of our high level advisors next week... to see if we can bring this inglorious war... to an end."
  — Eamon Javers, reading Trump’s statement [19:46]

Macro & Markets:

• "Companies just received $100 billion, the first tranche of the one big beautiful bill, tax cuts for making investments in America."
  — Dan Clifton [07:04]

Sector Trends & AI:

• "We just upgraded health care... it's actually one of the sectors where the use cases around AI helping efficiency are really, really abundant."
  — Savita Subramanian [29:13]
• "I would go as far as saying is that we're clearly seeing bubble behavior in this market, but I don't think it's across the entire market."
  — Iso Kant [44:21]

On Market Sentiment:

• "The bar is really high today. And this is happening on top of... a really, really expensive market environment where... we're not necessarily seeing a lot of risks priced in."
  — Savita Subramanian [30:54]

Entertainment/Tech:

• "I think having a single place where there are no blackouts, no matter where you are in the world, anyone can buy it..."
  — Eddie Q (Apple), via Alex Sherman [40:15]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:58] – Market overview; earnings, trade, and bond yield update
• [02:25] – Eamon Javers on Trump-Putin call, Ukraine arms decision
• [07:04] – Dan Clifton on fiscal/monetary stimulus and market resilience
• [15:22] – Biotech sector outlook with Jared Holtz
• [19:46] – Updates from Trump’s call with Putin and next diplomatic steps
• [24:38] – Bertha Coombs: Stocks on the move (JB Hunt, UAL, HP)
• [28:30] – Savita Subramanian: AI, sector rotation, and market risks
• [33:39] – Sima Modi: Oracle’s cloud and margin outlook
• [35:13] – Steve Kovac: MGX/AI infrastructure, TikTok national security angle
• [40:15] – Alex Sherman: Apple’s sports streaming ambitions; Eddie Q interview
• [42:48] – Iso Kant (Poolside): AI campus and energy infrastructure in Texas

Closing Thoughts

This episode expertly weaves together the day’s most pressing business and geopolitical news, offering listeners a real-time window into decision-making in Washington, policy tailwinds on Wall Street, and the evolving future of technology and energy infrastructure. With sharp analysis and breaking developments—from the latest in U.S.-Russian diplomacy to sector-shaking corporate deals—“The Exchange” remains an invaluable guide for anyone navigating today’s complex market landscape.