The Exchange – October 22, 2025

Host: Morgan Brennan (in for Kelly Evans)
Guests: Binky Chadha (Deutsche Bank), Charlie Scharf (Wells Fargo), Mark Lipacis (Evercore), Bradley Tusk (Tusk Venture Partners), Mike Brown (Travel & Leisure), and Dom Chu (CNBC)

Episode Overview

This episode of "The Exchange" offers a comprehensive look at key market movers, with a strong focus on the ongoing earnings season, big bank strategies, semiconductor sector trends, trillions in AI investment, and the latest in leisure travel and tech innovation. The show features in-depth interviews, especially highlighting a live discussion from Wells Fargo’s new Texas campus and analytical conversations with leading market strategists.

Key Segments and Insights

1. Market & Earnings Update

[00:50–08:09]

• US Stocks Declining: The Dow is tracking its first negative day after a record-setting session, S&P and Nasdaq also lower.
• Earnings in Focus:
  • Tesla and IBM report after-hours; Netflix drops 10% on earnings miss tied to Brazilian tax dispute – despite strong sub growth and ad sales.
  • Texas Instruments (TI) falls 7% on weak outlook; slower semiconductor recovery cited.
• Earnings Season Stats:
  • Of 97 S&P 500 companies reporting, 85% have beaten on earnings, highest breadth since Q2 2021.
  • Binky Chadha remains bullish, reiterating his S&P 7,000 year-end target.

Notable Quote:

“So a little bit better than even we expected, but the bigger picture… hasn’t changed very much.”
— Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank [03:10]

2. S&P 500 Outlook – Interview with Binky Chadha

[03:10–08:09]

• Earnings Trajectory:
  • S&P 500 earnings growth averaging historical (approx. 11%).
  • Positioning among fundamentals-focused investors is “underweight,” contrary to actual strong earnings growth.
  • Ongoing robust inflows into equities bolster Chadha’s optimism.
• Sector Positioning:
  • Favors cyclical sectors: financials, industrials, and consumer cyclicals.
  • Believes fears of cyclical risk hold back investors, who may rotate into cyclicals if earnings remain solid.

Notable Quote:

“There is quite a gap between what they [investors] are positioned for and what we are getting.”
— Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank [04:00]

3. Wells Fargo’s Texas Bet – Interview with Charlie Scharf

Live from Irving, TX | [08:10–19:40]

• New Campus Opening:
  • Wells Fargo opens a 5,000-staff campus in Irving, Texas. Chosen for its business-friendly environment, talent, and quality of life.
• Strategic Expansion:
  • Scharf stresses value of being present beyond coasts, reflecting the full American market.
• Efficiency & AI:
  • AI boosting productivity (30–35% gains among developers), but not directly cutting jobs; instead, the company is focused on retraining and smart use of attrition.
  • Plans to grow headcount in talent-needy areas.
• Lifting the Asset Cap:
  • The lifted balance sheet cap (previously at $1.95 trillion) allows for resumed growth in deposits, lending, and securities.
  • Goal is to regain and exceed lost business, achieve “best-in-class” financial returns while investing for the future.
• Credit Quality & Risk:
  • Currently sees strong credit quality; acknowledges cyclical risks and potential for isolated fraud (“cockroaches”), but not seeing systemic issues.
  • On NDFI (non-depository financial institution) lending: confident in Wells’ risk discipline, but concedes there could be trouble elsewhere in the system.

Memorable Moment:

“If you look over time, huge amount of technological advancements… our company is a lot bigger today than it was. We employ more people… we figure out where we need more talent.”
— Charlie Scharf, Wells Fargo CEO [11:03]

“Jamie’s comment on cockroaches is… very apropos. When you see one problem, it mean that there could be more… but it doesn’t mean it’s a systemic issue at this point.”
— Charlie Scharf [15:04]

4. Semiconductor Slowdown – Analysis of Texas Instruments & Sector Outlook

[21:46–26:39]

• TI Stock Fall:
  • Down 7% after Q4 outlook cuts; recovery in chips “slower than prior upturns.”
  • Mark Lipacis (Evercore) maintains Outperform rating, sees current aversion to rebuilding inventories post-pandemic as a setup for a sharp demand rebound.
  • Predicts tightening chip supplies and potential supply shock within 6–9 months due to depleted inventories and slowing production.
  • Sector still sees strong pockets: data center, AI, defense, some EV segments.

Notable Quotes:

“The supply chain just spent two years lowering inventory… they’d rather pay expedite fees… than rebuild.”
— Mark Lipacis, Evercore [22:25]

“It takes like 13 weeks to make a chip… lead times will start to stretch, and you can’t just turn a fab on.”
— Mark Lipacis [23:23]

5. Earnings Movers — Market Movers Recap

[27:56–30:19]

• GE Vernova:
  • Down ~4%: mixed results; electrification segment and 55% order growth offset wind weakness.
• Hilton:
  • Up ~4% on beat and raised outlook; luxury segment strong, expects growth as rates ease.
• Beyond Meat:
  • Highly volatile “meme stock,” surging from $0.50 to $7.69 recently; retail activity and short squeezes driving price action.

6. AI Trillions & Global Investment – Interview with Bradley Tusk

[32:43–38:01]

• AI Infrastructure “Bubble?”
  • Big Tech is making gargantuan AI investments—potentially risky if demand doesn’t materialize as planned.
  • Suggests sharing risk with international partners (UAE, Japan, Korea) who’ve expressed interest in US tech, helping to prevent a US-only “AI bubble.”
• Policy’s Role:
  • Advocates for coordinated global approach – an “axis of good” for AI innovation and capital deployment.
  • Emphasizes importance of seeding early-stage US AI startups to stimulate future demand for built infrastructure.
• Quantum Computing:
  • Alphabet unveils “Willow” chip; quantum breakthroughs could accelerate AI progress and reshape infrastructure needs.

Notable Quotes:

“If their perceptions of what’s needed turn out to be wrong… to have only a handful of companies holding all the upside and all the downside is a lot.”
— Bradley Tusk [32:43]

“We almost create an ‘axis of good’ on AI… countries that are really valuing innovation and investment and sensible regulations.”
— Bradley Tusk [34:43]

7. Google’s AI Race (Tech Check)

[38:06–41:30]

• Stock Moves & Competitive Landscape:
  • Alphabet shares rebound after quantum chip and Anthropic deal news, despite new OpenAI browser threatening Chrome market share.
• Ongoing Questions:
  • Concerns over the profitability, cannibalization, and technical prowess as Google juggles Gemini, search revenue, and cloud partnerships.

8. Travel & Leisure Resilience – Interview with Mike Brown

[41:30–45:01]

• Strong Results:
  • Shares up 15% after Q3 earnings beat and yearly guidance raised.
  • Business benefits from prepaid timeshare model: 80% of members have paid for ownership, ensuring ongoing travel demand.
• Inflation Shield & Demand Trends:
  • Members insulated from rising hotel prices; leisure travel demand remains resilient across regions.
  • Popularity spikes in Smoky Mountains, Las Vegas, and southeast beach destinations.

Notable Quote:

“There's no reason for [our members] not to travel… leisure travel is one of the last things people will give up.”
— Mike Brown, Travel & Leisure CEO [42:36]

9. Tesla Earnings Preview

[45:01–47:19]

• Key Metrics to Watch:
  • Q3 EPS expected at $0.55.
  • Focus: automotive gross margins, robo-taxi timeline (fully autonomous?), AI and robotics development progress.
  • Full-year deliveries seen at ~1.6M, with China showing a strong rebound.
  • Real “market mover” expected at 5:30pm ET on analyst call with Elon Musk.

Notable Quote:

“It's the call and what Elon has to say that is really going to be the focus of the street.”
— Phil LeBeau, CNBC [47:19]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Binky Chadha on positioning: “Right now [investor] positioning is aligned with slightly negative earnings growth, and as we were just talking about, we're getting double-digit earnings growth.” [04:00]
• Charlie Scharf on AI: “In our technology group, where we're using AI, many of our developers are seeing 30–35% more productivity.” [11:03]
• Bradley Tusk on global AI collaboration: “We almost create like an axis of good on AI… use that to create a world of AI that solves massive global problems.” [34:43]
• Mark Lipacis on chip supply: “It takes like 13 weeks to make a chip… lead times will start to stretch, and you can't just turn a fab on.” [23:23]
• Mike Brown on leisure travel: “Leisure travel is one of the last things that people will give up.” [42:36]

Segment Timestamps

• Market & Earnings Recap, S&P Outlook: [00:50–08:09]
• Wells Fargo Texas HQ, Efficiency & Risk: [08:10–19:40]
• Semiconductor Outlook (TI/Evercore): [21:46–26:39]
• Market Movers (GE Vernova, Hilton, Beyond Meat): [27:56–30:19]
• AI Bubble & Policy (Bradley Tusk): [32:43–38:01]
• Google & AI Competition (Tech Check): [38:06–41:30]
• Travel & Leisure CEO (Q3 results): [41:30–45:01]
• Tesla Preview (Phil LeBeau): [45:01–47:19]

Episode Tone & Takeaways

• Engaged, data-driven analysis—CNBC trademark mix of urgency with measured optimism.
• Cautious bullishness: Many guests see room for upside due to underinvestment and outsized skepticism.
• Heavy emphasis on technological transitions (AI, quantum, semis) and capital risk management.
• Underlying theme of resilience—whether in financial markets, leisure travel, or sector-specific recoveries.

Summary prepared for those seeking a full picture of business and market conversation ahead of Tesla’s earnings, with actionable insights from top strategists and executives.