Podcast Summary: The Exchange (CNBC) — September 12, 2025

Overview

This episode of The Exchange dives into a packed news day for markets, with the S&P and Nasdaq touching all-time highs despite softening consumer sentiment. The hosts, Melissa Lee and Mike Santoli, break down market drivers, discuss earnings stories, preview next week’s pivotal Fed meeting, and host in-depth conversations with market experts. Key features include: Oracle’s historic rally, sector and macro perspectives from Ariel Investments, meme stock dynamics with Opendoor, the evolving COVID vaccine narrative, merger murmurs around Warner Brothers Discovery, technical market setups with Susquehanna, the Gemini crypto IPO, Microsoft–OpenAI’s restructuring, and rapid fire looks at Apple, China, quantum trades, and food inflation.

Market Snapshot & Fed Outlook

[00:46 – 02:50]

• Indices at Record Highs: The Nasdaq and S&P hit all-time highs, with all three major averages on pace for a winning week.
• Sector Moves: Utilities and consumer discretionary stocks lead, especially Tesla, while materials and health care lag.
• Mixed Signals: Despite the robust rally, consumer sentiment has dropped to its lowest since May.
• Interest Rates & Dollar: Yields are edging higher, the dollar is on its worst week in a month.
• Anticipation of Fed Cuts:
  • "We now have a very clear view cemented about the Fed cutting next week...there is a little bit of a feel of mission accomplished in the markets." – Mike Santoli [01:30]
  • Markets are pricing in a 92% chance of an October rate cut. If the Fed doesn’t confirm the market’s dovish expectations, “that’s going to be a rude awakening.” – Melissa Lee [02:42]
• Potential for Disappointment:
  • “There’s room for disappointment. Not so much that it’s make or break, but that you could see people finding fault with anything that deviates from the perfect benign scenario.” – Mike Santoli [02:50]

Spotlight: Gold Hits an Inflation-Adjusted Record

[03:08 – 04:00]

• Gold’s Fourth Straight Week of Gains: Nearing an all-time high on an inflation-adjusted basis.
• Historical Perspective:
  • “This is a 45-year round trip in real terms for the price of gold… On the other hand, the S&P500 from that point in 1980 is up like 13 times in real terms. So equities once again are kind of an inflation beneficiary over longer stretches.” – Mike Santoli [03:22]

Deep Dive: Oracle’s Epic Rally & Value Investing Insight

Guest: Charlie Brabrinskoich, Vice Chairman & Head of Investment Group, Ariel Investments
[04:02 – 09:45]

• Oracle’s 30+ Year High:
  • “We try and buy things when they’re out of favor and sell them when they’re in favor. And Oracle has gone from being very out of favor to being very in favor...I’m trimming it. I still own it, but it’s trading at a big multiple of value.” – Charlie Brabrinskoich [04:33]
  • Questions around Oracle’s new AI-driven data center contracts: Revenue looks huge, but profits are unclear.
• Market Structure:
  • “You gotta talk about two different markets...Large cap growth which dominates the S&P 500 is clearly overpriced...small cap value...is trading at its historic average. So there’s lots of still good value.” – Charlie Brabrinskoich [07:08]
• Sector Focus—Healthcare & Housing Adjacent:
  • Bullish on research firms like LabCorp and Bio-Rad due to demographics and ongoing demand.
  • Mohawk (Housing):
    • “There’s pent-up demand for housing…We think [Mohawk] is going to be a direct beneficiary of a cut in interest rates.” [09:05]

Opendoor: The Meme Stock Debate

[09:49 – 11:53]

• Stock Volatility: Opendoor shares down 10% after an 80% spike the previous day.
• Management Pushback: Co-founder Keith Raboy rejects Opendoor’s ‘meme stock’ label.
• Market Function Discussion:
  • “The entire original point of having markets is to allocate capital…that’s a good thing. That’s how society should work…an extreme version of wisdom of crowds.” – Mike Santoli [10:23]
  • “He was so defensive about it. It’s not a meme stock. Why not just say, you know what, I don’t care what you call it? If this is all about the retail investor…then that’s fine by me.” – Melissa Lee [11:35]

Breaking News: Covid Vaccine Coverage & Controversy

Guest: Angelica Peebles, Reporter
[12:02 – 15:51]

• Political Moves: Trump health officials reportedly plan to link Covid vaccines to child deaths, using data from a federal safety database criticized for lack of vetting.
• Market Impact: Moderna, Pfizer, Novavax shares drop sharply.
• Insurance Coverage Implications:
  • ACIP’s recommendations directly affect insurance coverage, potentially leading to disparities in access.
  • “Only 13% of children got last year’s booster…But it just brings up this broader question of what does this mean for immunization as a whole.” – Angelica Peebles [15:35]
• Potential for Removal/Reduction of Other Vaccine Requirements: A critical test case for insurers and public response.

Major M&A: Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance

Guest: Laura Martin, Senior Analyst, Needham & Co.
[18:07 – 22:51]

• Bid Speculation: Paramount Skydance rumored to prepare a bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD).
• Industry Impact:
  • “There’s about $30 billion of total synergies by putting these two companies together… it would be the fifth largest advertiser, one of the largest studios, and the largest owner of cable networks.” – Laura Martin [18:48, 20:12]
  • Regulatory outlook: CNN’s possible ownership shift seen as “a regulatory positive.” [21:25]
  • “This is a survival requirement for both of these companies…either they’re going to go out of business or they get together and can compete longer.” – Laura Martin [22:14]

Crypto & IPOs: Gemini by the Winklevoss Twins

[23:03 – 24:46, 35:23 – 37:21]

• Gemini IPO: Opens at $37 (33% above $28 issue price), surges up to 45% in first day trading.
• Market Sentiment:
  • Compared to previous “crazy initial pops,” this one is more moderate, possibly due to 30% retail allocation.
  • “I’m suspicious of enthusiasm and optimism in all its forms.” – Mike Santoli [24:46]
• Volatility Comment:
  • “You have Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss… giving each other big hugs when this one opened up. Again, 45% right now. This is a company that’s about 11 years old and in fact, its top line is declining, losses have been widening… But it plays into this space—cryptocurrency—which has seen tremendous demand.” – Leslie Picker [35:30]
  • Risks highlighted given tiny float and post-IPO volatility.

Option Market Positioning: Pre–Fed & Sector Views

Guest: Chris Murphy, Co-Head of Derivatives Strategy, Susquehanna
[27:01 – 31:28]

• Positioning:
  • “I think everyone’s long…we’re seeing a lot of put spread buying kind of focused on the September 30th time frame." [27:18]
  • Volatility remains low and helps the rally.
• Tech Call Spread Activity:
  • Focus on mega-cap tech into year-end, especially Amazon and Google.
• China Markets:
  • “Consistent call spread buyers in KWEB in A shares…people playing one more leg higher on some sort of [tariff] deal.” [29:03]
• Restaurant Sector Hedging:
  • “Sweetgreen comes to mind… pretty expensive... consistent bearish flow. Even Chipotle—every single day put buying.” [29:51]
• Market Structure:
  • Massive liquidity, two-way flows, and opportunities for buyers as option sellers saturate the market.

Company Focus: RH (Restoration Hardware) Down on Tariffs, Guidance

Guest: Courtney Reagan, CNBC Retail Reporter
[32:00 – 35:23]

• Tariff Pressure:
  • “There's going to be $30 million in unmitigated tariffs for the rest of this year that we didn’t anticipate.” [32:00]
  • Earnings and sales guidance cut.
  • Dependency on China reduced, but now face 50% tariffs on Indian imports (esp. rugs).
• CEO Commentary:
  • “He’s always really colorful…he sort of speaks in platitudes and he’s quoting Warren Buffett a couple times.” – Courtney Reagan [32:00]
  • “He made the point that he’s not going to promote. And they're famous for their membership program…$200 seems well worth it to get a discount…” [33:49]
• Industry Warning:
  • “If you’re a smaller player…people are not going to survive.” [34:48]

OpenAI–Microsoft Mega–Restructuring

Guest: Mackenzie Sagalos, CNBC Tech Reporter
[37:21 – 41:40]

• Deal Details:
  • Restructuring will allow OpenAI to unlock $40B in funding, convert Microsoft’s investment into standard equity, and set up for a possible IPO as a public benefit corporation.
  • “Microsoft gave OpenAI what it wanted. Investors out here in Silicon Valley now expect to see some major concessions.” – Mackenzie Sagalos [39:47]
• IPO Path and Legal Risks:
  • “What I am hearing is that in terms of the conversion…[it] really has to happen first in the next one to two months… then it unlocks a Softbank financing and then they would be eligible to potentially get on that IPO path.” [40:17]
  • Legal risks remain, including active lawsuits from Elon Musk.

Rapid Fire: Apple, China, Quantum, and Consumer Staples

[42:43 – 47:00]

• Apple’s Thinnest iPhone (Air):
  • “It’s so thin it may not show up on the camera…so light, it’s like you’re holding the future in your hand.” – Jim Cramer (to Tim Cook) [43:00]
  • Stock down on launch; launch in China delayed due to regulatory issues.
• Chinese Internet Stocks:
  • Major moves in Baidu, Alibaba, NetEase; “Investors feel as if we have a parallel AI mania to play.” – Mike Santoli [44:27]
• Quantum Stocks Surge:
  • Sector described as “almost perfect for retail trader stampedes…there’s no fundamentals today…it’s all about maybe in five years we'll have a commercialized project.” – Mike Santoli [45:19]
• Consumer Staples—Coffee Price Squeeze:
  • JM Smucker downgraded; “Coffee is up more than 20% this year…these staple names have been terrible, rough.” – Mike Santoli [46:18]
  • “The market just doesn’t want these sorts of products…brands are just a little bit tired.” – Melissa Lee [46:50]

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “There’s a little bit of a feel of mission accomplished in the markets.” – Mike Santoli [01:30]
• “I’m trimming [Oracle]. I still own it, but it is trading at a big multiple of value.” – Charlie Brabrinskoich [04:33]
• “The entire original point of having markets is to allocate capital…an extreme version of wisdom of crowds.” – Mike Santoli [10:23]
• “There’s about $30 billion of total synergies by putting these two companies together...” – Laura Martin [18:48]
• “It’s so thin it may not show up on the camera…it’s so light, it’s like you’re holding the future in your hand.” – Jim Cramer [43:00]
• “Quantum is about maybe in five years…retail trader stampedes…no fundamentals today.” – Mike Santoli [45:19]
• “Coffee is up more than 20% this year…these staple names have been terrible, rough.” – Mike Santoli [46:18]

Key Takeaways

• U.S. equity markets continue to surge despite underlying consumer caution; possible over-extension ahead of a crucial Fed meeting.
• Oracle’s meteoric rise draws scrutiny even from past bulls; divergence between mega cap/growth and small cap/value is stark.
• The meme stock phenomenon continues to blur lines between fundamentals and sentiment-driven rallies.
• Regulatory changes around vaccine recommendations could disrupt pharma revenues and market access.
• Strategic M&A (Warner Bros.–Paramount Skydance) could reshape the competitive landscape in media.
• Options market participants are hedging but remain largely bullish, especially on big tech and Chinese tech.
• Crypto IPOs like Gemini see strong debut pops, but volatility remains an issue.
• OpenAI-Microsoft deal a milestone for the AI sector, paving the way for a major IPO despite ongoing legal challenges.
• Retail, housing, and consumer staples feel the sting of tariffs, inflation, and changing consumer preferences.
• Tech, China, quantum, and food inflation are central themes as investors seek the next edge (and next safe haven).

For more in-depth reports and original interviews, tune into future episodes and visit CNBC.com.