The Exchange – CNBC

Episode: September 9, 2025
Main Theme: Apple’s Next Big Moves – iPhone Air Reveal, Product Ecosystem, and What’s Next for Apple

Brief Overview

In this episode, Melissa Lee and Mike Santoli, with on-the-ground reporting from Steve Kovach and insights from investors like Gene Munster and Low Tony, deliver in-depth coverage of Apple’s major 2025 product reveal. The episode dissects the unveiling of the iPhone Air (the first significant iPhone redesign in half a decade), new advances in wearables (notably AirPods Pro 3 and Apple Watch Series 11), pricing strategies, Apple’s evolving supply chain, and how these changes may reshape Apple’s position in the MAG7 tech group and broader tech market.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Backdrop and Anticipation for Apple’s Event

• Mixed Markets: Stocks relatively unchanged despite a huge downward revision in job growth numbers; Nasdaq at an all-time high; bonds steady ahead of inflation report; gold hitting records. ([01:20])
• Apple’s Event: Greatest focus on the expected unveiling of a thin, redesigned iPhone—rumored as iPhone Air—with potential price changes and technology shifts. ([02:10])

2. On the Ground: Apple Event in Cupertino

Reporter: Steve Kovach

What to Expect:

• First major iPhone redesign since 2020 (dubbed by the internet as “iPhone Air”).
• Apple aiming for a product-driven growth cycle versus last year's underwhelming “Apple Intelligence” (AI) launch.
• Speculation of first major iPhone price increase since 2020, due to both product positioning and tariffs (though the latter won’t be mentioned onstage).
• New homegrown modem in iPhones, post-Intel acquisition, aiming at longer battery life and efficiency.
• Accompanying launches: AirPods and new Apple Watch. ([02:10 - 04:29])

Quotes:

• “This is going to be the first major redesign from Apple on the iPhone since 2020.” – Steve Kovach ([02:21])
• “They do these kind of what I call sneaky price increases.” – Steve Kovach, on storage-based pricing changes ([04:36])

3. Apple’s Growth Prospects: Beyond the Supercycle Hope

Guest: Gene Munster, Deepwater Asset Management

• Apple lagging among MAG7 but poised for a “reset” if demand materializes.
• The key metric: iPhone growth, especially in the December quarter (Gene estimates 7-10% growth vs Street’s 5-7%).
• The driver: A massive install base with natural upgrade cycles, plus pent-up demand from older devices.
• Caution against expecting a “supercycle” (15%+ growth), but confidence in sustained upside.
• AI as the next frontier: Potential for a big “AI bump” in 2026 if Apple delivers with an improved Siri.
• Risk/Reward in China: Essential for incremental upside, especially as local competitors capitalize on AI. ([06:07 - 12:30])

Quotes:

• “People are committed, they're loyal to the iPhone. There's no question about that.” – Gene Munster ([07:32])
• “With the bar really high for the new Siri…if they deliver on that…I think you’re going to see an AI bump that hasn’t happened.” – Gene Munster ([09:54])
• “$100 increase in the ASP of an iPhone cost the average iPhone users $2 a month. I mean they've got pricing leverage now.” – Gene Munster ([12:10])

4. Skeptical Carrier (AT&T CEO John Stankey) Perspective

• Not expecting an “earth-shattering” shift; no supercycle anticipated.
• Final impact lies with the consumer—upgrade demand for aging devices could be enough. ([08:11])

5. Valuing Apple at All-Time Highs

• Stock at 30x earnings. Gene Munster argues growth isn’t fully priced in and foresees multiple expansion to 35x, with a $315 price target.
• Apple’s customer base (~1.5 billion users) provides enormous pricing leverage; risk if China continues to underperform. ([11:13])

6. Discussion on Vision and Innovation at Apple

Guest: Lo Toney, Plexo Capital

• Apple’s Tim Cook has achieved “operational excellence,” but critics see a need for “Jobs-esque” product vision.
• Next leap won’t come from hardware alone—must integrate “magic” in software; AI (particularly agentic AI) could unlock radical user experiences.
• Apple’s strength: Vertical integration with both hardware and software (“magical experiences”).
• Competition looms: OpenAI and others exploring their own AI devices, while Android makers lead in areas like foldables.
• Consumer demand for AI: May be latent—part of Apple’s power has been showing customers what they want before they know it. ([16:36 - 23:24])

Quotes:

• “Jobs was magic and then Cook is execution.” – Low Tony ([17:02])
• “What the analysts don't want is for this to be a Siri 2.0…Google and Amazon…outpaced them.” – Low Tony ([18:12])
• “Apple has the installed base that’s passionate about their products—and so that’s a good place to start.” – Low Tony ([21:30])

7. Product Announcements – Wearables and iPhone 17

A. AirPods Pro 3 and Apple Watch 11

Reported by: Steve Kovach ([24:32])

• AirPods Pro 3: Health tracking (heart rate monitoring), live translation via AI (between wearers, or showing translations on the iPhone screen).
• Apple Watch Series 11: Thinner, more durable, now with 5G. Adds “high blood pressure notification” (hypertension monitoring, pending imminent FDA approval).
• “If you and someone else…are both wearing these new AirPods Pro 3…through artificial intelligence, it’ll automatically translate.” – Steve Kovach ([24:55])

Gene Munster’s Take:

• Apple Watch “the best health device on the market”; continuous additions (ECG, sleep, oximeter, now hypertension). Attach rate rising, insurance coverage could be next frontier.
• Pricing on wearables unchanged—a sign similar restraint may occur on iPhone pricing. ([29:52])

B. iPhone 17

Reported by: Steve Kovach ([33:35])

• Base model iPhone 17: Nearly identical external design to iPhone 16, larger and smoother screen, better camera and battery—an incremental rather than revolutionary update.

Gene Munster’s Prediction:

• iPhone Air (premium, thin version): Forecasts $899 price vs. $999 Pro.
• Main differentiation: Thinner device, possibly at expense of battery/camera quality, but a showcase for Apple's own chips (modem, Wi-Fi/Bluetooth).
• “They’re going to put some sort of premium on the aesthetics.” – Gene Munster ([34:45])

8. Apple’s Strategic Shift to Homegrown Technology and Supplier Moves

Reported by: Steve Kovach & Christina Parts [40:28, 43:00]

• iPhone Air as showcase for Apple’s own silicon:
  • Custom Wi-Fi/Bluetooth replacing Broadcom chips.
  • Modem in-house (movement away from Qualcomm).
  • A19 Pro chip said to equal MacBook Pro performance.
• Broadcom, Qualcomm stocks slipped modestly on revealed tech transitions; Taiwan Semi and Foxconn up as crucial manufacturing partners.
• Move viewed as Apple increasing control and efficiency—potentially extending battery life, reducing supply chain risk, and improving device performance.

Quote:

• “We’re seeing Apple kind of divorce itself from some of its suppliers, put its own technology instead of third party technology into its best stuff.” – Steve Kovach ([41:54])

9. Charts, Technicals, and Market Response

Mike Santoli ([26:40])

• Apple shares at a technical “crux point”: 50-day moving average crossing above 200-day (“golden cross”), could signal upside, but broader trend not robust.
• Apple stock backed off intraday as event unfolded, reflecting some impatience for “earth-shattering” announcements.

10. Wider Impacts in the Apple Ecosystem

Christina Parts and Evolis ([43:00])

• AirPods translation feature potentially negative for DuoLingo stock.
• Corning (supplier of glass), Jabil (assembly), Qorvo and Skyworks (connectivity chips), Broadcom (losing ground to Apple chips), Qualcomm (phase-out by 2027), and Taiwan Semi/Foxconn (manufacturing) – all stocks responding to the event.
• Carriers (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile) depend on iPhone cycles for subscriber growth.
• Jamf Holdings (enterprise Apple device management) tracks with product launches.

Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• On the nature of Apple’s changes:
  “I’m not expecting it’s going to be anything what I would call earth-shattering or frame breaking.” – AT&T CEO John Stankey. ([08:11])

• On Apple’s ecosystem power:
  “There are a lot of people, call it 1.5 billion people, that depend on these devices and they're willing to pay more.” – Gene Munster ([11:31])

• On innovation:
  “Jobs was magic and then Cook is execution. But…does Apple need to return to a more product-focused desire so that they can have the radical new experiences that Jobs was known for delivering?” – Low Tony ([17:02])

• On AI’s place in Apple’s future:
  “Apple has the installed base that’s passionate about their products—and so that’s a good place to start.” – Low Tony ([21:30])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:05] – Show open, market overview, Apple event anticipation
• [02:10] – Steve Kovach live from Cupertino on what to expect at the Apple event
• [06:07] – Gene Munster on Apple’s growth prospects and the importance of upgrade cycles
• [08:11] – AT&T CEO John Stankey on iPhone refresh expectations
• [16:36] – Lo Toney on Tim Cook, innovation, and the need for a Jobs-esque product vision
• [24:32] – Steve Kovach: AirPods Pro 3 and Apple Watch 11 features
• [29:52] – Gene Munster’s reaction to new wearables and health focus
• [33:35] – Steve Kovach reports on the iPhone 17 model
• [34:45] – Gene Munster’s pricing predictions for iPhone Air
• [40:28] – Steve Kovach on iPhone Air’s technical details, Apple’s chip strategy
• [43:00] – Christina Parts on the Apple supplier ecosystem and market signals

Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive, real-time analysis of Apple’s most significant product launch in years. The panel breaks down why this cycle, while evolutionary rather than revolutionary, is far more than a new gadget reveal. It sets the stage for Apple’s next wave of growth—driven by homegrown technology, vertical integration, and potential AI-driven services—while exploring the risks and opportunities (especially in China and global supply dynamics) that will define Apple’s future in an ever-competitive market.