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The Iran Conflict, Energy Spikes, and One-on-One with Jamie Dimon 3/2/26
00:49:07
The Iran conflict enters its third day, and President Trump leaves the door open for American boots on the ground. Natural gas prices soar after the worlds largest producer, Qatar Energy, halts production. Plus, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on geopolitical risks, the cracks in credit, and deregulation.
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- [00:01]
Kelly Evans
Oh joy.
- [00:02]
Dan Clifton
Another day another buzz delayed.
- [00:04]
Kelly Evans (Host)
Look on the bright side, you can finally catch up on podcasts. You don't mind running late.
- [00:08]
Kelly Evans
What's your deal?
- [00:09]
Kelly Evans (Host)
What's my deal? I saved at Metro with no activation fees. I got one line of 5G for just $25 a month. Kept the phone I love and a 5 year price guarantee for my talk text and data. Only $25.
- [00:20]
Kelly Evans
I'm going to Metro when we hop off.
- [00:22]
Kelly Evans (Host)
Get that more for your money feeling only a Metro by T mobile. Just bring your number. $30 first month and $25 after with autopay price guarantee exceptions. Apply CSI for details. Hey girl.
- [00:32]
Kelly Evans
What's happen?
- [00:33]
Kelly Evans (Host)
Is that your antiperspirant? Uh yeah. Let me see that can. Aluminum, butane. I cannot pronounce that. You have to switch to native deodorant. Native's simple formula has only clean ingredients. It gives you effective 72 hour odor protection with no hydrocarbon propellant. Wow, this smells heavenly clean. Effective 72 hour odor protection isn't a myth, it's native. Thank you very much Scott and welcome to the Exchange. I'm Kelly Evans and we have a huge reversal in markets today. Take a look at the action here at 1:00pm Eastern Time. Stocks have staged a massive comeback following the attack on Iran over the weekend. The dow was down 600 points last night and at the lows this morning even after we opened, it's now down 15. The S&P is positive by 9. The Nasdaq is up half a percent right now and and the 10 year yield is back above 4% to 405. That may have a lot to do with some details in the esm. We'll come back to that in just a moment. Take a look at oil as well. Big part of that reflationary inflationary story. Crude WTI, the US metric there back up to 70 or so a barrel. It's a 5% pop. Meanwhile, natural gas is up here in the UK slightly more so 40% in the UK and 32% in Europe after Qatar Energy, that's the world's largest LNG producer, did halt production after some drone attacks on key facilities. That's sending prices much higher overseas and a little bit of an impact here. As for other signs of a flight to safety, we've got gold off the highs still in the green, but by just a percent or so as investors are looking for some of those safe haven homes. Around 5,300 for the gold price today. The dollar still up about a percent. That's a big move to 98 and a half. That's the highest level in five weeks. And. And it's now positive on the year. But let's begin with the latest developments. What we know this afternoon on Iran. The President spoke just a short while ago saying the US will easily prevail in this war, interestingly not ruling out the presence of boots on the ground in an interview earlier today as well. And we've also heard officials insisting this will not be an endless conflict. Eamon Javers is live at the White House.
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Dan Clifton
Eamon Kelly, these were the President's first live remarks since the strikes began on Friday evening, overnight east coast time here in the US Helming an unrelated event that was designed to award Medals of Honor to three US servicemembers. The president also beginning that ceremony with some comments on Iran. He listed US objectives in the region, suggesting that the goal here is to degrade Iranian missile capacity, degrade the Iranian navy, to stop the Iranian effort at a nuclear weapon, and also to degrade the Iranian capacity to fund terror networks throughout the region and around the world. The president also said that he's committed to this for the long term. Here's what he said. Whatever the time is, it's okay.
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Kelly Evans
Whatever it takes, we will always. And we have. Right from the beginning, we projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that. We'll do it.
- [03:50]
Dan Clifton
The President acknowledged the loss of four US service members who have been confirmed killed in the fighting so far. Those all apparently killed in strikes by the Iranian regime on a US base in Kuwait. We'll wait for more details on that strike as they come in. And the president here also suggesting that the United States is hoping for regime change in Iran, not emphasizing that point here in the East Room, but over the weekend, the President suggested that he wants the Iranian people to rise up and take control of their country themselves. And the president also saying to reporters that he spoke to throughout the weekend that it's unclear who the new leader of Iran will be now that the leadership of that country largely killed in attacks by the Israeli and US governments over the weekend. It's not clear who on the Iranian side the US will be dealing with. But the President has suggested, Kelly, that he's willing to talk to whoever emerges from this leadership vacuum that's in Iran right now. Back over to you.
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Kelly Evans (Host)
All right, Eamon, thank you. For now, we'll come back to you. Eamonn Jeffers at the White House. The surge in oil prices is a particular area to keep an eye on. It comes At a delicate time for the US Economy. We saw a huge spike in the prices Paid index of the ESM report just this morning. And the rise in core goods prices in the PCE on Friday outside of COVID was the highest since 1992. Our next guest warns that a stagflationary wind is starting to blow through the US Economy. Mohamed El Erian is chief Economic adviser at Allianz and the former CEO of pimco. Mohamed, welcome to you. We're going to hear from a series of key voices this hour, culminating with Jamie Dimon. Towards the end of the program, just your response to what you've seen so far with Iran and what you think might happen from here.
- [05:30]
Mohamed El Erian
So I think in terms of economics, a lot will depend on the duration and the spread of the conflict. The longer it lasts, the more it spreads, the more stagflationary it is for the global economy. Now the good news is that this global economy has absorbed shock after shock after shock in the last few years and has proven incredibly resilient. But we don't want to put too many shocks at it. So keep an eye on the duration of the conflict because that is going to both fuel inflation disrupt supply chains and undermine growth at a time when policy flexibility is limited, especially for the Federal Reserve.
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Kelly Evans (Host)
I look over at the 10 year yield, which, you know, it was below for a little bit, but that was both on the blow up of private credit and the initial flight to safety with Iran. Now that that's, you know, kind of calming down to some extent. We see these inflationary reports. It's popping up again. The mortgage rates back at like 6.15 something in that range. So what do you think happens with the 10 year? I mean, are we, could we see it go significantly higher back towards four and a half, even higher from here? Same thing with the inflation rate. I mean, I don't know what happens to the new Fed chair. Kevin Warsh is going to come in at a time when more people on Wall street are saying maybe there's no more rate cuts this year.
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Kelly Evans
Yeah.
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Mohamed El Erian
So there's a lot of uncertainty. As you pointed out, the immediate decision the bond market had to make is does it opt for flight to quality and safety and growth concern or does it opt for inflation concerns? And it started opting for inflation concerns. We saw the 10 year move up 7 basis points and then we got the strong ISM and now it's up 10 basis points. So the bond market has mainly said, you know what, I'm more worried about inflation Than I am about growth, than I am about flight to quality. Last week was all about financial instability, private credit and also employment concerns. And that's why we went so full. So there's so many crosswinds. I think if you want to make a simplifying assumption is we will mostly trade in a range of four to four and a half unless we get a big financial issue. Yeah, and that financial issue would be some combination of the AI bubble and the private credit and the way they interact.
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Kelly Evans (Host)
I'm almost thinking about it as a tug of war where the private credit and private equity, I mean the whole thing that those who lend to software companies, that whole thing is going to be deflationary to some extent. But here comes this capex cycle, here comes all of these things were already on the move, higher physical goods prices. That's why I mentioned those issues. The spike in oil prices today is relatively limited but in some ways the larger story is that oil and energy has been the best sector of the year. This whole thing could continue because of the capex boom and supply side problems now emanating from this issue. In that sense, I think about the Jeff Curry idea that you know, we go through these rotations. Tech is dominant for a decade and then energy is dominant for a decade and I just wonder if we're going to be in the latter.
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Mohamed El Erian
So we are going through multiple short term rotations. We don't, we no longer have a unifying theme like we did last year. Last year we all fell in love with those working on AI. Not with AI, that's this year's theme, but on AI. And it was such a dominant theme with unlimited upside that that carried us through and acted as a shield to many things. This year it's about rotating almost week by week from one theme to another and I think we should expect that to continue. We no longer have a strong unifying theme that is in play right now.
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Kelly Evans (Host)
Right. And just a final thought then. What are you going to be watching here? Is it, you know, the response from Iran on much of the Middle east seems to have caught those countries off guard and perhaps prepared them to be more aggressive in continuing whatever the President has started here, maybe they help finish, I don't know.
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Mohamed El Erian
So I don't know about, about the geopolitics. I do know that it has come as a huge shock that within one day you had nine countries in the region involved in this conflict beyond Iran, Israel and the US and then you had Cyprus as well. So I don't think anybody anticipated that it would spread so quickly. So, you know, there's a lot of question marks about how it evolves. Is a very dynamic situation. But I think what's important is to always think in terms of supply chains. This will make companies think even more about resilience, even more about we need just in case, supply management, not just in time supply management. And that in itself adds to what you started with, which is this inflationary bias that we're going to live with for a while.
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Kelly Evans (Host)
That's a great point. Mohamed, thanks for making the time today. Appreciate it.
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Mohamed El Erian
Thanks for having me.
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Kelly Evans (Host)
Mohamed El Erian With Allianz sticking with energy prices, it's not just oil spiking today, Nat gas prices are soaring in the UK and rising globally after Qatar Energy, the largest LNG producer, has halted production following attacks on some key facilities. Amrita Sen is founder and director of research at Energy Aspects. Amrita, do you share the point of view that this could now lend upward pressure, upward price pressure to oil, not just in the near term, but for some time? Yeah.
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Amrita Sen
And you mentioned LNG as well, just to highlight that actually Qatar decided to curtail its production not because of the attacks. To clarify, there's been a lot of misreporting in the media. It's because of the shipping constraints around the straits. What's happening is that ships, many, many ships are going in and not able to come out or not even being able to go in. So they have very limited storage. It got tank tops and that's why they've decided to curtail production. It wasn't because of the attack. And that is something that's a genuine risk. Oil as well, for the Iraqis, for instance, some of the other countries within the strait who are unable to divert production to other parts, Saudi Arabia and UAE can divert some of their production to Saudi, to the Red Sea, UAE to outside of the Hormuz, to the Fujairah port. They have some flexibility, a lot of others don't. And what you're seeing in Qatar for gas, the risk is you start to see that for oil as well.
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Kelly Evans (Host)
And what would that risk be? You're saying that they can't get it in or they can't get it out? No.
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Amrita Sen
So what I'm saying is that ships across all vessel classes are, because of the war insurance, because of the attacks we've now seen on several four or five vessels, either they're not coming into the strait or they're not going out of the strait. So they're stranded. That's why, for instance, Qatar had to shut in LNG production because it just cannot load and therefore it has to curtail production, say for Iraq. That's a real risk that after they fill up their storage, which is already 50% full, based on some of the satellite data that we track, that could fill up very quickly in a day or two and then they will have to cut back production if you're not able to get ships to load and get out of the strait.
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Kelly Evans (Host)
So who are the customers, Amrita, that will be most affected by this? Because in the US our nat gas price is barely moving, which suggests we will experience very little disruption. Our oil price is up 5% or so. Okay, so maybe there's more of an impact there in the UK and in Europe their natural gas prices are soaring, as you know. And is that because they are the ones likely to face supply shortages and is there anything we can do or others can do to ameliorate that?
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Amrita Sen
Of course. Look, I think ultimately for oil, Asia is the biggest loser in this because 80% plus of all Asian imports come from the Middle east and that has to pretty much go through the straits of foremost. We've heard from refineries saying they might have to cut back on throughputs because they can't get the oil in time. So I think that that's a bit which is really difficult to solve because of the choke points around around Hormuz. Whereas for gas, Europe and Asia both prices have soared because Qatar supplies to both. And this is where the US can come in to at least supply Europe. Again, Asia is a different story because of the routes involved, but US can definitely send more to Europe and help to lower the prices here instead of Qatar. I think that's where it becomes super important for security of supply.
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Kelly Evans (Host)
And Rita, where do you think this leaves China and Iran and Russia, which to a large extent have looked because of sanctions or other things going on to places like Iran for key energy supplies in recent years.
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Amrita Sen
Yeah, I mean China is Iran's only buyer effectively.
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Kelly Evans
Right.
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Amrita Sen
One and a half million barrels per day. Right now Iran has still has over 30 million barrels floating. So the Chinese independent refiners can pull on that. So that gives them a little bit of COVID less than a month. But after that, if there's genuine disruption, that's China is going to be the one that's the biggest hit as a result of this. And they've already lost access to Venezuelan oil which was discounted. Now they will lose access to discounted Iranian oil. There's a lot of cheap Russian oil on water. Don't get me wrong, but clearly that pool of cheap sanctioned oil is getting less and less for the Chinese, which means the cost for them has to go up.
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Kelly Evans (Host)
Perfect. A discussion point we'll talk about after the break. And Marita, we'll leave it there for now though. Thanks very much today. Appreciate it.
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Amrita Sen
Thank you.
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Kelly Evans (Host)
And Marita Sen there with energy aspects still to come. Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase chair and CEO, will join us first on CNBC. We'll get his reaction to the situation in Iran and of course to the private credit fears that have been roiling the markets. But first, Congress set to vote this week on potentially curbing the President war powers. It's unlikely to pass, but our next guest says the President still may only have a few more weeks to run this operation. Dan Clifton joins us next to explain what he means by that.
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Kelly Evans
This is the exchange on CNBC.
- [15:28]
Kelly Evans (Host)
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Amrita Sen
Listen to what it sounds like to
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Kelly Evans (Host)
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- [16:25]
Amrita Sen
Tremphya including important safety information.
- [16:28]
Kelly Evans
Oh joy.
- [16:29]
Dan Clifton
Another day, another buzz delayed.
- [16:32]
Kelly Evans (Host)
Look on the bright side, you can finally catch up on podcasts. You don't mind running late.
- [16:36]
Kelly Evans
What's your deal?
- [16:37]
Kelly Evans (Host)
What's my deal? I saved at Metro with no activation fees. I got one line of 5G for just $25 a month. Kept the phone I love and a 5 year price guarantee for my talk text and data. Only $25.
- [16:48]
Kelly Evans
I'm going to Metro when we hop off.
- [16:49]
Kelly Evans (Host)
Get that more for your money feeling only a Metro by T mobile. Just bring your number. $30 first month and $25 after with auto pay price guarantee exceptions apply. See site for details. Not every sale happens at the register before AT&T business Wireless. Checking out customers on our mobile POS systems took too long. Basically a staring contest where everyone loses. It's crazy what people will Say during an awkward silence. Now, transactions are done before the silence takes hold. That means I can focus on the task at hand and make an extra sale or two. Sometimes I do miss the bonding time. Sometimes AT&T business wireless connecting changes everything. Welcome back to the Exchange. As the old saying goes, all roads lead to Rome. And when it comes to America's recent geopolitical actions, our next guest says all roads may be leading to China. Let's bring in Dan Clifton. He's head of policy research at strategicas Research Partners. Dan, that's exactly the point that Amrita Sen was just making. We've cut off Venezuela's crude supply to China. Now here goes Iran. It's some point. I mean, maybe we should just supply them and peace can reign, right?
- [17:54]
Dan Clifton
Well, first, thank you for having me back. You know, last week it was pretty clear the President was setting the tone at a State of the Union to do something in Iran. And obviously we got that this weekend. But I think there's a larger story here. The President's goals are very clear in terms of what the four thinks he wants to do. He wants to take out the ballistic missiles, the nuclear weapons and, and dismantle the leadership.
- [18:17]
Leslie Picker
But.
- [18:17]
Dan Clifton
But at the end of the day, 17% of China's oil is coming from Iran and Venezuela combined. And I think the President's trying to get a very similar setup with Iran as he did with Valenzuela. Now we all know that that's much harder to do. There's many different factions, the factors to consider there. But if you start getting control of that oil and you start making it more difficult for, for China, then it becomes a lot harder for China to move on Taiwan to down the road at some point overall. And instead of going after China directly, you want to go after their proxies. And I would say the same thing is true about Russia.
- [18:52]
Kelly Evans (Host)
What you just said is super interesting because a lot of people are assuming or imagining that if America does enough to eliminate our adversaries globally who were to some extent allies of a China, then they might at some point feel the need to push back by, for instance, making a move on Taiwan. But what you're saying is that the calculus here, by affecting 17% or so of their oil supplies, maybe to actually make it more difficult for them to move on Taiwan. Why is that?
- [19:21]
Dan Clifton
Well, that's exactly right. At some point they're going to move and what the Chinese have been doing is using their proxies to weaken the United States. That's the Russia, Ukraine war. That's the October 7th. Now, what you're seeing from Trump is the exact opposite. Trump is now saying, okay, I'll go after your proxies rather than you directly and I'm going to raise the cost of you doing your global adventurism and I'm going to lower the cost of us. And what I mean by that specifically is that the cost of the US Trying to do a two front war, one with Iran, causing all this mischief in the Middle east and to policing China, China with Taiwan, is becoming extremely cost prohibitive. So Trump saying, I'm just going to get rid of that first front. I'm going to, I'm going to obliterate Iran for four weeks, make them weaker, get into a better policy deal, and then we can pivot and get right into China. And that's why all roads lead to China at the end of the day. And I think that's where Trump is trying to set it.
- [20:16]
Kelly Evans (Host)
I think a lot of people in the back of their minds when they looked at that buildup in the Mideast thought, well, I hope nothing else happens around the world because all of our assets are right there.
- [20:24]
Dan Clifton
Absolutely. And I think that's the strain. But again, when I listen to the President, he's saying, I got three or four weeks to do this. That's true. The President has a low approval rating, he has very little support for this war. Oil prices can go up. We're probably going to see American casualties. But circle that calendar, Kelly, because right at the end of that three to four week period is when Trump meets with G. And if he's got more cards in his hands in that meeting, I think it makes it a better meeting for Trump overall. And that means that he's going to have to have success and there's no guarantee of success. What is this operation right now?
- [20:58]
Kelly Evans (Host)
What do you think he would even be trying to achieve with this meeting other than a visual, a visual sense of world peace, which he's kind of made an important part of his legacy, if you will. But what is he actually looking to do with the leverage that he believes he's built up here?
- [21:11]
Dan Clifton
I think he's trying to build a collaborative economic environment where it's not just about peace, it's about we can all get rich together and we don't have to go and take everything else over. But I think in terms of this, if you read the Wall Street Journal, they've been very clear that Xi was going to ask Trump about taking Taiwan in this meeting. And that's never happened before. So I think that this may have been a much more confrontational US China meeting than what we've seen in past. Even when they didn't get along, they kind of put on smiley faces. I don't think that that was where we were headed this time around. And I think Trump's trying to say, look, you don't have as much leverage as you think you have. The US has some leverage here and this is the way that we're going
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Kelly Evans (Host)
to be doing business. I didn't realize that world leaders got together to ask each other about that. I suppose what you're saying, he's not asking, he's telling.
- [21:58]
Dan Clifton
Yes, exactly.
- [21:59]
Kelly Evans (Host)
Yeah. And just waiting in order to gauge what the US Response might be. Basically.
- [22:04]
Dan Clifton
Absolutely. And the leaks in the media are designed to kind of get ahead of that and say this is where we're going be prepared for it. And Trump prepared in a way that I don't think anybody anticipated.
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Kelly Evans (Host)
And quickly on Dan, then on Russia, which of course over in Europe that has been the predominant issue is to what extent are those incursions something to worry about and could they make a move further on the continent and so forth. And what do you think, if anything is the Russian conclusion from, you know, watching the events here, Venezuela unfold, The Trump's are hinting at Cuba and so forth.
- [22:33]
Dan Clifton
Yeah, I think Russia is very different than China, Kelly, because every time Trump has made a move on the proxies, whether that was Syria or Valence, well now Iran, Russia's just kind of taken a hands off approach. Overall. They're so bogged down in Ukraine, I don't think that they have the capacity to make these other moves moving forward. There is a bit of a sentiment shift here in Washington where they're starting to think that there's a potential for a Russian Ukraine deal that's going to happen. Now I've heard that before and it's never materialized and I want to get too far over my skis on that. But you know, Iran was the biggest drone maker for Russia and now you that supply chain has been disrupted. There had been progress on the land deal, there had been progress on the security guarantee. Is this enough to then push you into a deal rather than the other way? Have you asked about more Russian expansion? So I do think that the Russia and China are very different in their proxies, in their capacity. China having capacity to move, Russia not having capacity move. But that would be a real kind of expected positive event if you saw some sort of Russia, Ukraine, temporary cease fire or some sort of deal that emerged from.
- [23:44]
Kelly Evans (Host)
That's a good reminder. Speaking of supply chains, like Mohamed El Erian said, watch the supply chain and they're the drone one goes to Iran for Russia. That's interesting, Dan, thanks. Really appreciate it.
- [23:53]
Dan Clifton
Thank you, Kelly.
- [23:53]
Kelly Evans (Host)
Dan Clifton with Strategic A Bear company coming up. Today's market moves are somewhat muted to the dramatic events in the Middle east over the weekend, but my next guest is warning that oil prices could now stay elevated for years. We'll tell you why, and we're continuing to track this market rebound with the Nasdaq seeing a 2% intraday swing, the S and P trying to stay in the green, and the Dow erasing an early 600 point loss. We're back with much more after this. Get in the game with the college branded Venmo Debit Card. Rep your team with every tap and earn up to 5% cash back with Venmo Stash a new rewards program from Venmo. No monthly fee, no minimum balance, just school pride and spending power. Get in the game and sign up for the Venmo debit card@venmo.com collegecard the Venmo MasterCard is issued by the Bancorp Bank N.A. select schools available. Venmo Stash terms and exclusions apply at Venmo me terms max $100 cash back per month.
- [24:49]
Kelly Evans
Oh joy.
- [24:51]
Dan Clifton
Another day, another buzz delayed.
- [24:53]
Kelly Evans (Host)
Look on the bright side, you can finally catch up on podcasts. You don't mind running late.
- [24:57]
Kelly Evans
What's your deal?
- [24:58]
Kelly Evans (Host)
What's my deal? I saved at Metro with no activation. I got one line of 5G for just $25 a month. Kept the phone I love and a 5 year price guarantee for my talk text and data. Only $25.
- [25:09]
Kelly Evans
I'm going to Metro when we hop off.
- [25:11]
Kelly Evans (Host)
Get that more for your money feeling only a Metro by T Mobile. Just bring your number $30 first month and $25 after with autopay price guarantee exceptions. Apply CSITE for details At Strayer University we help students like you go from is it possible to Anything is possible by offering access to up to 10 no cost gen ed courses so you can reach your goals afford. Visit Strayer Edu to learn more. No cost Gen EDS provided by Strayer University Affiliate sofia. Eligibility rules apply. Connect with us for details. Strayer University is certified to operate in Virginia by Chev and has many campuses including at 2121 15th Street north in Arlington, Virginia. Welcome back. Oil prices are up today, but not as bad as some had feared. Still, my next guest is warning not to be complacent. He says this weekend's action could wind up threatening shipping in the Strait of Hormuz for months, if not years. And, quote, the world may need to completely rebuild oil production and transportation infrastructure in the Gulf. He recommends owning these oil carriers as an investment and is warning against exposure to technology stocks and even some international names. Joining us now is Marco Papich, macro and geopolitical strategist at bca. Marco, first of all, really appreciate you being here. Thank you. And this is an interesting point because I always try to guess what folks like yourself are going to say. Maybe I don't overreact here. And, and when I read what you're writing about and heard Amrita earlier saying, you know, if, if we need an alternative to this Strait of Hormuz, what does that look like?
- [26:39]
Marco Papich
It looks really bad. But that is not my base case scenario. Obviously. The base case scenario is that what President Trump is going to do is what he's always done, which is start big, shoot for the moon and then settle for the roof of his house. So I think that it's very dangerous to commit oneself to any secular views at this point. President Trump could end the conflict whenever he wants. My concern is actually if regime change does happen, regime change in the Middle east outside of Egypt, although even there the jury's out. But outside of Egypt, regime change in every single country in the Middle east has gone terrible. And so this idea that Iran would flip from Islamic theocracy to some form of democracy, I think is, is highly unlikely. Which means you will have a country at the brink of collapse sitting astride this very important sea route for potentially years.
- [27:33]
Kelly Evans (Host)
I mean, I assume the administration, the only Iran governance for the past century has either been this theocracy or the, you know, the Reza Pahlavi, the shahs that were overthrown by this theocracy with popular support by the people only to repeat, you know, so there's not really the vestiges there of something that would resemble any kind of Western instrument, institution making and I presume they know that. So that all said, and you are kind of to put it in trading talk long, you know, oil carriers in that kind of group. So you do see that there is a risk here, that there continues to be disruption. Right. And yeah, it just there are other reasons why the energy prices may be high, but any kind of ongoing disruption here would certainly add to that.
- [28:13]
Marco Papich
Well, I've been logged since January 6th, so that's one of the reasons I just didn't want to book gains on this conflict, which actually goes against my framework, tends to fade geopolitical events. But in this particular case, the problem is that it's very difficult to handicap the reaction function of Iran. Last year, it was very easy. I told my clients not to get excited about the Israel Iran conflict even once the US Got involved. Iranian regime was actually never threatened existentially in any way, shape or form. In fact, President Trump was very clear in 2025 that he did not want regime change. But since December of last year, he's changed his tune. And obviously now Iranian regime is backed up against the wall. So they have to illustrate to President Trump that there is a pain in trying to force them out of existence. And that's why the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is already relatively. I mean, here, yeah, it's a fact they've attacked three ships. They're spoofing the GPS signals of many crude carriers. And so, you know, this could get a lot ugly, especially if they start focusing all their drone attacks simply on the ships which are not that far away from their coastline. And one of the things we learned, I mean, from Yemen, is that if the Houthis can close the Red Sea for three years, I'm pretty sure Iran can do it for a couple of weeks at least.
- [29:35]
Kelly Evans (Host)
And we talk about how maybe a $10 jump in the price of oil is 25 cents or so at the gas. I mean, people will feel it. And that's kind of what Dan Clifton was alluding to earlier. The president might only have a couple of weeks of, you know, if you want to call it public support before people start getting really frustrated about this, especially as we're getting other signs of, like, inflationary pressures here. So what does the US do to hasten an end here to, as we say, the theocracy is the only thing that's been in place there since at least 1979 or 1980, and prior to that, it was a monarchy. So I don't know what kind of. It must be something more analogous to a Syria or a Venezuela situation, where they're just looking for somebody less hardline within the existing regime.
- [30:16]
Marco Papich
Ultimately, it's going to be in the eye of the beholder. And the eye of the beholder is President Trump. So I think that eventually he's going to figure out what you and I are talking about here, if he doesn't already know it, which is that it's very dangerous to try to have regime change in a country like Iran. I mean, you're really Honestly, the first person that's mentioned this, Kelly, in this conversation right here, most people somehow have this image that pre1979, you know, Iran was a land of milk and honey. And they forget exactly what you pointed out, that people revolted against the Shah. Shah was a dictatorship.
- [30:48]
Kelly Evans (Host)
They were killing people in the streets. They threw him out. They brought, you know, Khomeini back from Paris. He had 5 million people applauding when he, you know, when his plane landed. And then there was a bit of a bait and switch when he landed. It was kind of a Xi Jinping situation. He said, I'm the supreme Leader. All the other Arab countries should do the same thing. Iraq launches a war and then a million people die. They have a baby boom, only to grow up in the shadow of the horrible conflict. I mean, it's just, it's so unfortunate, but it does not leave a lot of options for modern institution building.
- [31:15]
Marco Papich
Absolutely. And in fact, what could happen, given the mountainous geography of Iran, given the fact that only 50% of Iran are ethnically Persian, what could end up happening is the worst case scenario, which is some form of a complete collapse into a Somalia example and scenario in which case you have a country with multiple factions, some aligned with the US Some very much not aligned, astride this very important strait. So given all of this, I do think that President Trump is going to declare victory much faster than people think. I mean, this is my base case scenario. My base case scenario is not that the world is going to lose access to the Strait of Hormuz because that would obviously be a very bad move from a market perspective. What's interesting to me is that the very reason why US Stocks have gone sideways and while rest of the world has done really well since October of last year, is that there's this rotation thesis. While US tech has worked for 15 years, nobody really likes it anymore. Let's go buy some value cyclicals. Europe, Japan and so on. The problem is that this conflict imperils that very thesis. And I'm not sure that anyone has appetite to go buy more SaaS companies. That makes no sense. So that's the risk of the market as well.
- [32:30]
Kelly Evans (Host)
That's a great point. And you know, again, whether this now becomes a secular longer term investment thesis and things like energy partnering because of that, I think. You know, come back, Marco, in a week or two or three, maybe weekly as we try to figure this one out. But your, your warnings are apt. And I appreciate it, kind of outlining some of the ways this may go today, Marco Pappage joining us from BCA Research. We'll leave it there for now. Let's get to Seema Modi for the CNBC news update. Hi, Sima. Hi, Kelly. Good afternoon. Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Ro Khanna introducing legislation today that would impose a federal wealth tax on billionaires. According to Senator Sanders office, the planned tax would raise $4.4 trillion in federal revenues without hiking taxes on anyone worth less than a billion dollars. A similar potential ballot measure in California has prompted some of the state's wealthiest to move or threaten to leave. In other news, a group of hackers calling themselves the Department of Peace reportedly claim to have hacked the Department of Homeland Security over the weekend, leaking documents online. TechCrunch reporting the group published data relating to contracts between DHS, ICE and more than 6,000 companies, including Defense contractors. DHS has yet to comment on that report. And President Trump has this morning awarding the Medal of honor to three U.S. army soldiers, two of them posthumously for their heroic actions during combat. The soldiers recognized for their bravery spanned much of the last century, from World War II to Vietnam to Afghanistan. Kelly, back to you. All right, Seema, thank you. Coming up, Anthropic rejected the Pentagon's demands, so the military turned to open AI instead. We'll have the very latest on this conflict. Plus, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon joins us in a first on CNBC interview. He'll touch on everything from the Iran conflict to the ongoing issues in private credit. We're back with much more right after this. Welcome back to the Exchange. Open Air striking a deal with the Defense Department after the president banned Anthropic. Today, Treasury Secretary Bessant announcing his department will terminate all use of Anthropic products, saying the American people deserve confidence that every tool in the government serves the public interest. And under Trump, no private company will ever dictate the terms of national security. Deirdre Bosa is now live outside of OpenAI's San Francisco headquarters for today's tech check in. Deirdre, when Katy Perry is downloading know Claude, the public support that has broken out for Anthropic is remarkable over the weekend. Absolutely. And that's what this is all about. On Friday, the action was outside of Anthropic headquarters across town, messages of support on the sidewalk. But today the story has moved very, very quickly to open air. So I'm outside of the open air headquarters where people have been busy. Take a look at some of these messages on the sidewalk and chalk outside. Here's one. OpenAI is nothing without its people. When is it time to quit, be brave? How far is too far? What are your red lines? And then, you know, an American flag. This goes on quite a bit further down the street, as you can see. And rather than support, this is really a call to action. We spoke to some of the people who are doing this. They're not open Anthropics. They're, they're not OpenAI employees nor anthropic employees. They say they're simply concerned citizens about the direction that all of this is heading. And Kelly, this really goes beyond that Department of Defense contract we were talking about on Friday. You mentioned it. You've got Besson saying that he's going to end any kind of partnerships or contracts with Anthropic. You've got the president saying that no government agency should work with Anthropic. And now it is designated a supply chain risk. So that is a very, very big step that the people I'm talking to are saying. That's the part they take issue with, not the DoD dropping a contract, but this wider designation. Kelly, you mentioned this at the top as well. OpenAI may have won the contract, but Anthropic right now is arguably winning the narrative among consumers and developers. Of course, you had Anthropic shoot to the top of the app store, dethroning ChatGPT for the very first time. This is very much still playing out because this is what OpenAI employees are seeing as they walk into work this morning. Right. And our Dario Amadeus believe It was on 60 Minutes too. I mean, there's so much focus on this as a PR strategy. Absolutely brilliant. And of course, the rest of it remains to be worked out. Deirdre, for now, thanks. Appreciate it. Fascinating look outside OpenAI's headquarters there. Before the war on Iran broke out, there were mounting concerns about private credit and that defaults there could have bigger ripple effects across the financial markets. Joining us now in a first on CNBC interview is JP Morgan chair and CEO Jamie Dimon with our very own Leslie Picker from JP Morgan's Global Leveraged Finance Conference in Miami Beach. Leslie, over to you.
- [37:04]
Leslie Picker
Kelly, thank you so much. And thank you, Jamie, for taking the time to sit down with us. And it's a very important day. Everyone's trying to make some sense of the news over the weekend. And you've long said that the markets have underappreciated the, quote, complex geopolitical conditions. What do you make of the latest developments with Iran and the market's reaction today?
- [37:21]
Kelly Evans
First of all, hi. Hello. CNBC Hello, Kelly. The first thing I want to say is that my heart goes out and we're praying for all our soldiers and sailors overseas and our employees. We obviously have employees in a lot of those cities. That's the most important thing. The second thing is the hope that this might lead to a long, just peace in the Middle East. I think the odds of that are higher. Tom Friedman wrote a great op ed today. While there's risk associated with this, it's very hard to predict the ultimate outcomes. Maybe it will be a catalyst to get that done and obviously the sooner the better. So. And you see what's doing the markets. Not dramatic, no. Economic, you know, the economy is not often driven by something like that unless it's prolonged.
- [38:00]
Leslie Picker
What about inflation? As people kind of think about the potential ripple effects of higher oil prices, for example, obviously today's move is, is just one day. Do you see a risk that this could lead to sustained inflation over the long run?
- [38:14]
Kelly Evans
Not, I don't think this thing in an isolated way will, you know, I think there's some risk. There's more inflation than people think. And that could be like a skunk in a party if that ever happens. Hopefully it doesn't happen and you know, no one actually knows, but you know, this right now will increase, you know, gas prices a little bit. And again, if it's not prolonged, there's not going to be a major inflationary hit again. If it went on for a long time, that would be different.
- [38:36]
Leslie Picker
Another concern that I've seen mentioned out there is the risk of rate retaliatory cyber attacks, banks being a potential target there. How concerned are you about that? I know that's something that you mentioned in your, your letter about a year ago.
- [38:50]
Kelly Evans
I think the most important thing is that we keep the Western world free and safe for democracy, you know, and people like this have gotten away literally with murder for 50 years. So that's far more important. But you know, as a, as a corollary to that, you got to expect there'll be cyber attacks, attacks or terrorist attacks either here around the world banks may be targets or maybe, you know, plenty of other people. And we always try to be prepared for that. We never try to predict when, why, where. We spend a lot of money protecting ourselves for cyber we think is part of our job, but I've always said I would consider one of the highest risk banks bear, not just the cycle. Cyber.
- [39:25]
Leslie Picker
Yes, I remember that from your, your letter last year. And of course we are here at the Leveraged Finance conference. It's a 31, 31st annual event. So let's dig into your view on credit broadly. Last week you said at JP Morgan's investor update that the environment reminds you of 050607 that people are leveraging to the hill and you see some, some dumb things out there happening. Where specifically are those dumb things happening?
- [39:49]
Kelly Evans
Let me give you a better perspective. Individuals in very good shape, debt to service ratios, corporations in good shape. Government is not. Governments around the world, the United States government have far more debt than they've ever had before. You know, we're going to have a cycle one day. I think when we have the cycle and it may be driven by geopolitics, it may not. Those geopolitical things are kind of longer tail items and there are a lot of short term good items. I think the one big beautiful bill drive growth. I think deregulation of banks and other companies can help drive kind of growth. The stunning of that party may be inflation. So credit will have a normal cycle. I believe that it'll be worse than a normal one when it happens. So there will be one. And that's because of complacency. You know, asset price is very high, credit spreads are very low. I don't think a lot of people have seen a credit cycle. Not everyone who makes loans is very good at it. So that those bad actors may be banks, not private credit. It just across the board and we've seen no issue. I wouldn't call major issues, I wouldn't call them systemic issues but issues of bad underwriting and some more fraud than there should be and things like that. So you know, I'm concerned about it but we're prepared for it. We always prepare for all these outcomes. We'll see. And then we say about, we obviously underwrite credit and compete. So we see people, we do that sometimes doing things that we would never do. That's what I'm referring to. That's not private credit. That's other people providing credit who we think are just going to bridge too far, you know, to make a loan they probably shouldn't be making.
- [41:19]
Leslie Picker
I think that's an important distinction because with the cockroach comment as well as the, the comment about people doing dumb things, I think a lot of people took that to mean private credit specifically.
- [41:29]
Kelly Evans
I never meant that for the cockroach comment or this thing, you know, this is underlying standards and not just, you know, leverage, not just ebitda, but also, you know, assumptions you're making and revenues and expenses, you know, covenants you put in place underwriting the person you're doing business with and their history. Sometimes it's very specific things that, you know, create what you would consider a secured loan almost unsecured. You know, the ability to move assets out of a company. It's all these things that create far more risk in that loan than we would be willing to bear.
- [42:00]
Leslie Picker
What about private credit and software? We've seen some volatility in recent weeks. Do you see, do you think some of the recent concerns, concerns and headlines and discussions about default rates in worst case scenario are all, is all of that warranted and do you think it, it is right to be pinning that specifically on software and private credit?
- [42:18]
Kelly Evans
I wouldn't and I just said it's nothing to do with software. It just, you know, credit in general and prices in general and things like that. But in every credit cycle, industries go bad that you never expect that hadn't gone bad before. So like in the year 2000 it was mom and dad dividend stocks, you know, the utilities and the telecom. In oh, eight it was Warren Buffett stocks media, though this time it might be software. They're part of the market. They'll just, they'll, you know, maybe that cycle be worse for software and other people. And I look, it's possible that I will attack parts of software more than people think. It's possible it could do other things that we haven't even thought about yet. So you know, to me, yes, those things, when you look at risk and out there you should incorporate what are the forms of risk? You didn't imagine that could be different. You thought, and can you handle it? No one can avoid a credit cycle. The question is, did you want to do a better job than everybody else? When you go through one of Lloyd
- [43:11]
Leslie Picker
Blankfein, who was CEO of Goldman Sachs,
- [43:13]
Kelly Evans
when of course, great friend of mine,
- [43:15]
Leslie Picker
wonderful guy as I miss him, nice to see him back out there. He's been talking about private credit specifically and some of the potential risks of putting private assets, assets, private credit into the hands of retail investors and eventually in 401ks. Do you agree with that notion that it is potentially risky and could draw undesirable attention from regulators?
- [43:36]
Kelly Evans
So I've come of two natures, okay, you're an adult, you have the right to do what you want with your money. You have the right to smoke cigarettes. I don't think that's wise. I think these are in some cases more complex and they make, you know, promises, dividends and values and stuff like that. Whenever you go to retail. So it's not a statement of private credit. Whenever you go to retail, you better have a heightened sense of what can happen. So you know, if you have to cut a dividend and the value goes from 100 to 70, big institutions are used to that. They made those decisions, they're underwrote. You know, mom and dad, they may say, wait a second, I thought you had better standards. I never knew my dividend could be taught. I was promised X. And then they start to send letters to the sec, you know, and the SEC has to investigate it. When they investigate it and they call their company, they're getting emails and inside the emails can say, this doesn't meet the standards of JP Morgan, we really should be selling this to grandma's. And then you're in trouble whether those emails are right or wrong. So yes, you have the high standards, but the standards could be done. You know, we all do this a little bit. What are your standards? You know, do you limit it? What's the transparency? You know, if a JP Morgan does it, we underwrite who's doing it. We re underwrite the loans. So you have to, if you set the right standards, it'll be okay. Or at least far better than the people don't do it the right way. And so not do it the right way will get you in trouble.
- [44:50]
Leslie Picker
Going back to.
- [44:51]
Kelly Evans
Yes, I agree with him in general.
- [44:52]
Leslie Picker
Yeah, yeah, no, it sounds like it. Going back to the subject of a disintermediation. Last week we saw Block lay off almost half of its workforce as a result of efficiencies it believes, or at least it says it could gain from AI. You've been worried about what you call derivative effects of replacing jobs jobs. Do you think this is just the beginning and if so, what do you think that would mean for the broader economy?
- [45:15]
Kelly Evans
So I, the first thing is I is real, it's going to create a lot of great things and I really mean it. Your kids may be working four days a week and their kids three days a week living wonderful lives, living to 100. A lot of cancer will be cured. Accident rates in cars will drop dramatically. So let's just put it in the big picture and companies should do deploy it to do a better job for the customers. So we're not going to hesitate deploying it. We're going to have our own redeployment of people if they're displaced. And what I was mentioning there is that if it happens too quick. So most technologies took years to roll out Internet, even cars And Caterpillar tractors and farms and, you know, electricity can build the whole infrastructure. This, this may be pretty quick adoption, so it may create some of that joblessness faster than people can retrain, move and stuff like that. And I'm just, my view is we, society, government and business should be thinking about what can we do to get the benefits of AI and diminish those negatives if in fact they happen. I'm not saying they're happening. What I'm simply saying is, JP Morgan, we prepare for things that may not happen. I think the government should be doing that here because it is a possibility to happen in certain job types and that. So we should, you know, have retraining, income assistance, relocation, things like that that give someone a chance at a good paying job.
- [46:28]
Amrita Sen
Job.
- [46:28]
Kelly Evans
It's not enough to say to someone making $150,000 a year, yeah, out of a job, your next job is stocking shelves of $30,000 who has a family. So I just, I just want to be conscious about if it happens, are we prepared? And we're not yet. This is about getting schools and businesses, you know, thinking through maybe incentives to retrain and relocate people, not just lay them off, you know, like things like that.
- [46:48]
Leslie Picker
As a business leader, how do you think about, how do you think about that? And especially as you mentioned mentioned, the technology changes so rapidly.
- [46:56]
Kelly Evans
We're going to adopt it ourselves. I don't worry about it all. We are going to do it, do a better job for our customer. We're not going, but our head in the sand. And as a business, remember, we have 10% attrition a year. So, you know, if you, so that means effectively, you know, over five or six years, you can cut your workforce in half just by not hiring people. And so I just, I don't want to. But you got to be ahead of it. You can't wait, deny it, not adopt it. I have to do a good job for my customer. So we are going to prepare, prepare ourselves. And we do a lot of redeployment. We've been redeploying people 15 years that, you know, this job disappeared. We offer your job over there with training and for the most part, they take it. Every now and then they want to retire or try something different. They don't want to move or something, but, but we're going to do it ourselves. I just think government's got to be thinking about this too.
- [47:39]
Leslie Picker
Yeah. You and your peers have reportedly clashed with Coinbase's Brian Armstrong over the Clarity act in specific. Specifically, this Idea of crypto exchanges offering rewards for stablecoins. And Armstrong was on CNBC with Sarah Eisen a few weeks ago from Mar a Lago. And he said there's a path forward for the market structure. Bill, that's a win, win outcome for everyone. How are you feeling about it right now?
- [48:02]
Kelly Evans
Yeah, so the banks feel strongly that there should be rewards are the same as interest and that you know, compromise would be that you could pay rewards on transactions, not balances. If you are going to be holding balances and paying interest, that's the bank. You should be regulated by a bank. So we've been firm one thing over here. Yes, but if you want to be a bank, become a bank, then you can do whatever you want under bank law. So I remind people, your viewers may not know banks have restrictions and requirements. FDIC insurance, aml, bsa, we have Community Responsibility act which means we have to open 25% of our neighbors with social requirements. We have liquidity requirements, capital requirements, transparency, price reporting requirements, board requirements, governments requirements. If they want to be a bank, so be it. So what we base says level playing field by product. It can't be. You have these people doing one thing, you know, without any regulation like that, these people do another. And if you do do that, the public will pay, it will get bad. So I just. People should take a deep breath. What is you want? And we want competition. You know, we're actually one of the biggest users of blockchain chain. And you know, and you know we've created the JP Morgan deposit coin, we've moved money, real time payments. You know, we're moving a lot of data now using blockchain. So we're in favor of competition. But it's got to be fair and balanced, level playing field. It's not, it can't be completely skewed. And the risk for the safety of the system, not just the fairness of competition.
- [49:23]
Kelly Evans (Host)
Right.
- [49:24]
Leslie Picker
To your point about FDIC insurance.
- [49:25]
Kelly Evans
Well aml, what about you know, they money laundering. I say, you know, we, we, yeah, we have money laundering requirements, reporting requirements, you know, which I think is good, you know, to some extent is good because you want a safe financial system as best you can make it.
- [49:40]
Leslie Picker
Let's dig into some of those requirements because the president of course is suing you and your firm for at least $5 billion over allegations that you debunked him for political reasons. You've also recently confirmed in a court filing that more than 50 of the president's accounts were closed in February of 2021. JP Morgan has also said, of course, that the suit has no merit and that you don't close accounts for political or religious reasons. So help us understand the gap there.
- [50:04]
Kelly Evans
Yeah, well, I mean, look, both could be true. You know, I don't like debanking, you know, and we debunk people because it causes legal and regulatory risk for us. And reputation is a funny word because it so is. So is political because, you know, you could say with Nazi party, well, we probably would be banked you so. But we don't do it generally for political, religious reasons, for other reasons. And sometimes you can't even tell those people we have to file suspicious activity reports. And you don't make a lot of money in bank accounts. So it's been much easier for bank to say, I'm not taking the risk. Let them go bank elsewhere. Very often the government knows much more than we know. And so I'm sympathetic. And we were quite clear. I respect the president's right to sue the company. We respect our right to defend ourselves. That's why you have courts. The case has no merit. It's going to have, you know, years of discovery type of thing and, you know, we'll see what happens. But I agree with them. They have the right to be angry. I'd be angry too. Like, why is a bank allowed to do that? You know, but they're forced to do it, you know, remember Operation Choke Point and you know, and the punishment that banks go through when they, you know, miss something or, you know, coulda, woulda, shoulda, it's all in hindsight, you know, and so both cases are right here.
- [51:16]
Leslie Picker
So has your process around closing accounts or anything, has it changed?
- [51:20]
Kelly Evans
Oh, yeah. Every time there are criticisms for the laws were supposed to have changed, they didn't, you know, but we have a second chance. Look, now we are much more critical. We have better reporting, you know, as opposed to just, you know, if it hits these terms, we debank them.
- [51:36]
Leslie Picker
Interesting.
- [51:36]
Kelly Evans
And there's a lot of detail behind that. It'll never be perfect. You know, sometimes we debunk you because we ask you to give us information, don't give it to us, we'll just close the account. And then we call you up and say, oh, oh, I didn't realize you were looking for me. I never saw the email or. But sometimes it's, you know, like if you are a certain type of account, we need to know your source of funds, your use of funds, you know, and if you're not going to tell us, we can't bank you. And so there are all these various things about ownership and, and then, you know, legal, you know, lawsuits companies have and anything that creates reputational risk for us. But, but we bank, we do not debank businesses in token, you know. And so there are a lot of misunderstandings here. Hopefully the law will change, hopefully get sorted out.
- [52:16]
Kelly Evans (Host)
Yeah.
- [52:16]
Leslie Picker
Well, you've clarified a lot for us today. We really appreciate your time. Jamie Dimon, chairman CEO of J.P. morgan.
- [52:22]
Kelly Evans
Oh, thank you.
- [52:23]
Leslie Picker
Appreciate it, Kelly. I'll send it back to you, Leslie.
- [52:25]
Kelly Evans (Host)
Mr. Dimon, thank you very much. Really appreciate it. Of course, when people are pouring back over the banks and their exposure to private credit, JP Morgan is one of those, seems to have the least of it. But that will be a story for another day. For right now, we're still gauging the fallout from the attack in Iran over the weekend and markets have largely shrugged it off to turn positive. Although the Dow is now heading a little bit back towards session. Lows down about 129 points this hour or a third of 1% s. And P is down 8. Nasdaq is up still and the Russell 2000 small caps are actually leading the way. A couple of quick movers to mention. The cruise operators definitely taking it on the chin today. Norwegian also gave weaker than expected guidance. That's not helping. Those shares are down 10%. Carnival, Viking, Royal Caribbean down as well. Norwegian warning the long term effects of the spike in oil prices is uncertain. Similar story for the airlines. They also grounded thousands of flights following the strikes in Iran. United has the most international exposure of the group but is only down 3% where the fallout is a little bit more on the heavily leveraged players elsewhere. Nvidia $2 billion. It's investing in coherent and lumentum. Remember lumentum CEO was on this program on Friday. He said they're hiring and adding capacity and are sold out until the end of next year. And that's it for the exchange. Brian Sullivan picks up coverage with Power Lunch. I'll see you right after this quick break.
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Kelly Evans
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