The Return of the AI, Tim Seymour’s Naughty & Nice Stocks & The Underestimated Discounter 12/22/25

Summary

The Exchange (CNBC) – Episode Summary

Episode: The Return of the AI, Tim Seymour’s Naughty & Nice Stocks & The Underestimated Discounter
Date: December 22, 2025
Host: Kelly Evans

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Episode Overview

This episode of "The Exchange" dives into the powerful resurgence of the AI trade, high-stakes mergers in the streaming industry, the narrowing contest for the next Federal Reserve Chair, a black swan event in the robo-taxi space, and hot moves in metals and discount retail. Conversations are data-driven, nuanced, and focus on both macro trends and the finer details—as CNBC listeners expect.

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1. The AI Boom Returns: What's Fueling the Rally?

Key Segment: 00:45–10:56
Guests: Gene Munster (Deepwater Asset Management)

Key Discussion Points

• AI Stocks on a Tear: Nvidia, Oracle, and Micron are seeing strong gains. CoreWeave is up nearly 20% in a week. Around OpenAI’s stellar fundraising and renewed industry optimism, AI-related names lead the comeback.
• OpenAI's Big Raise: OpenAI’s $830 billion valuation and its ability to raise tens of billions have reset investor expectations about AI’s real-world revenue growth ([02:26]).
  • “I think it was. That was the moment.” – Gene Munster ([02:26])
• Profitless Prosperity Debate: The show tackles the notion that falling AI compute costs could eat into profits. Gene Munster rebuts that future utility will protect pricing power, likening it to surges seen in subscription models from Apple Music to Netflix.
• Growth Numbers: Nvidia’s calendar 2026 guidance grew from 18% a year ago to now 65%. Micron’s revenue guidance for the next quarter—$18.7B versus the street’s $14.5B—set the market abuzz ([07:29]).
• Bullish on Usage: The theme is that booming usage will outpace falling token costs, driving real revenues.

Notable Quotes

• “[The] $830 billion valuation... is evidence of a private market company that's really setting the narrative on the public side.” – Gene Munster ([02:26])
• “A year ago Nvidia's projected growth rate for this coming year was 18%. And now the company itself is telling you it's going to be 65%.” – Kelly Evans ([08:38])
• “When something becomes indispensable, people will pay up for it. And I think that that is going to be the surprise moment in AI.” – Gene Munster ([10:09])

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2. Streaming Wars: Paramount Tries to Outbid Netflix for Warner Bros Discovery

Key Segment: 10:56–15:38
Guest: Peter Cipino (Wolf Research)

Key Discussion Points

• Paramount vs. Netflix: Paramount, now backed by Larry Ellison’s $40B personal guarantee, is challenging Netflix for Warner Bros Discovery. Both offers, after accounting for break-up fees and cable assets, are nearly identical—circa $29 per share. ([12:48])
• Deal Intricacies: Netflix’s offer technically looks less but includes equity in Discovery Global, making it economic. Paramount needs the deal for scale; Netflix wants it for content synergies, but would benefit even from a price-raising move ([14:41]).
• Market's Take: Warner trades just shy of the current offers, signaling expectations of a higher bid.

Notable Quotes

• “Paramount, with today's news, has given the Warner board more of the certainty that it's been asking for...” – Peter Cipino ([11:43])
• “Netflix has the best mousetrap in the world for turning long form premium video into profit dollars. However, this merger might be much more important strategically to Paramount..." – Peter Cipino ([12:07])

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3. Fed Chair Sweepstakes: The Final Four

Key Segment: 17:43–22:42
Guests: Steve Liesman (CNBC), David Hardin (Summit Global Investments)

Key Discussion Points

• Who Will Lead the Fed? The President's final interview with BlackRock’s Rick Reeder is upcoming. Odds favor NSC Director Kevin Hassett, but pushback from Wall St. and D.C. insiders is rife ([18:10]).
• Unusual Transparency: The process, compared to NCAA finals, is notably public. Even seasoned reporters admit uncertainty about backroom dynamics ([20:11]).
• Market Implications:
  • The central debate is whether the president will select someone ‘compliant’ or persuasive enough to sway the entire committee.
  • Discussion on possible policy direction; Chris Waller is noted for systematic, not political, rationales for lower rates.

Notable Quotes

• “This is the most different [Fed Chair search] that I’ve ever covered... Now it seems like talking to the press is part of the process.” – Steve Liesman ([20:11])
• “The President could pick the person most likely to do his bidding, but he might also want to pick the person most likely to be able to sway the committee.” – Steve Liesman ([21:57])

David Hardin's Outlook

• Numb Economy: Despite risks, the public and markets seem “numb” to shocks—spending and employment remain strong ([23:14]).

“We’ve had a number of shocks... They’re going to continue in 2026, but we're kind of numb to it. No one's really doing anything. The consumer is still spending, so it's a good [thing].” – David Hardin ([23:14])

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4. Metals Mania: Gold, Silver, Copper & Tim Seymour’s Naughty & Nice List

Key Segment: 34:14–40:04
Guest: Tim Seymour (Seymour Asset Management)

Key Discussion Points

• Metals Rally: Gold (+70% ytd, 6 straight months up) and silver (+136% ytd, best since 1979) surge on central bank buying, inflation hedging, and supply constraints.
• Gold’s Outlook: Some see gold at $6,000 by 2028 ([34:57]).
• Copper Supply Squeeze: Recent Latin American production issues and Chinese demand are making copper the “next hot metal.”
• Top Picks:
  • Nice List:
    • Rio Tinto: Fastest copper growth among diversified miners, attractive dividend, upside if China’s economy rebounds ([36:21])
    • Freeport: Likes both copper and gold exposure.
    • UPS: Operational improvement, set to benefit from economic upside after a down year ([37:45])
  • Naughty List:
    • Walmart: Great operator but too richly valued. Further upside seen as constrained by current comps and multiple expansion ([39:03]).

Notable Quotes

• “All the gold ever mined could fit on a football field two to three feet high. That's it.” – Tim Seymour ([34:57])
• “I think gold, $6,000 by 2028 if not before… Morgan Stanley out there saying it could be up 20%.” – Tim Seymour ([34:57])

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5. Blackout in San Francisco: Waymo Robo-Taxis vs. Tesla’s Approach

Key Segment: 40:05–44:32
Guest: Deirdre Bosa (CNBC TechCheck)

Key Discussion Points

• Power Outage Hits Waymo: San Francisco blackout stalled Waymo’s driverless vehicles; when multiple systems failed, the cars defaulted to maximum caution, causing gridlock ([40:36]).
• Waymo vs. Tesla Strategy: Waymo pursues ultra-defensive, regulation-first expansion. Tesla’s approach aims for “human-like” adaptability, which could theoretically handle ambiguity better, but authors note that Tesla doesn’t (yet) run a true robotaxi fleet in SF.
• Scalability Debate: A cautionary tale—does scaling mean steady, city-by-city regulatory wins (Waymo) or aggressive tech (Tesla)?

Notable Quotes

• “The tolerance for error, as we’ve seen, is close to zero. That kind of pressure has really shaped Waymo's strategy.” – Deirdre Bosa ([41:25])
• “Musk is making the argument this didn’t happen with Tesla’s, but not a fair argument because Tesla does not have a robotaxi network here in San Francisco. There is no robotaxi network here without human drivers. It’s just a fact.” – Deirdre Bosa ([43:05])

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6. The Underestimated Discounter: Ollie’s

Key Segment: 45:10–47:12
Guest: Anthony Jacumba (Loop Capital)

Key Discussion Points

• Ollie’s Upgraded: Loop Capital upgrades Ollie’s, highlighting underestimated benefits from competitors’ (Big Lots) bankruptcy, improved management, constrained consumer wallets, and increasing food/consumables mix ([45:10]).
• “Comps the Comp”: As long as comp store sales grow modestly, square footage and margin increases should drive the stock price ([46:05]).
• Tax Refund Tailwind: Larger tax returns for low-income consumers in 2026 expected to boost Ollie’s relative to more expensive competitors like Walmart ([46:52]).

Notable Quotes

• “They are going to continue to benefit from the Big Lots bankruptcy... access to merchandise... The management team... is much more scientific and data driven... [they're] carrying more consumables, which drives more consistent store traffic.” – Anthony Jacumba ([45:10])
• “If they get a bigger tax return, it’s not that they’re going to save it, they’re going to spend it.” – Anthony Jacumba ([46:52])

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7. Market Movers & Quick News

Timestamps: 30:24–33:14

• Dominion Energy: Hit by the halt of major offshore wind projects.
• Janus Henderson: Goes private in a $7.5B deal.
• Coinbase: Buys a startup to expand in the predictions market.
• China’s Military: Draft report on missile silos (Reuters).
• Uber/Lyft: To begin testing Baidu’s robo-taxis in London.

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Memorable Moments

• AI’s Revenue Shocker: “A year ago Nvidia’s projected growth rate for this coming year was 18%. And now the company itself is telling you it’s going to be 65%, which means it’s probably 75% or better.” – Kelly Evans ([08:38])
• Fed Chair as NCAA Finals: “I feel like I’m talking about the NCAA or something. Kalshee Prediction markets have NEC director Kevin Hassan in the lead with a 57% chance of getting the job.” – Kelly Evans ([17:43])
• Robotaxi Reality-Check: “Tesla does not have a robotaxi network here in San Francisco. There is no robotaxi network here without human drivers. It's just a fact.” – Deirdre Bosa ([43:05])

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Key Timestamps for Segments

• AI Comeback & OpenAI’s Impact | 00:45–10:56
• Paramount vs. Netflix for Warner Bros | 10:56–15:38
• Fed Chair Shortlist & Analysis | 17:43–22:42
• Tim Seymour: Metals & Stock Lists | 34:14–40:04
• Waymo Blackout & Autonomous Vehicles | 40:05–44:32
• Ollie's Stock Upgrade | 45:10–47:12

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Tone, Language & Style

The show maintains CNBC’s signature stance: brisk, conversational yet analytically rigorous, deeply data-driven, and market-savvy, with plain-English explanations for complex topics, punctuated by candid exchanges and sharp guest expertise. Stock market excitement, deal drama, and future-facing debates over AI and robotics were all delivered with equal parts authority and flair.

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For listeners catching up:
This episode offers a can’t-miss guide to current market movers—AI’s return, streaming’s billion-dollar wars, the future of money at the Fed, and why metals and discounters demand a fresh look. Expect sharp market insights, colorful anecdotes, and debate you can trust.

Transcript

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[Kelly Evans]

You'Re listening to THE Exchange. Here's today's show. Thank you very much, Scott. The AI trade is very much back on. Paramount is back in the race, and Elon Musk isn't telling the whole story. Welcome to the Exchange. I'm Kelly Evans and stocks are higher to start the shortened trading week with the Russell 2000 leading the way today, now up 1.6%. Dow's up about 306. And there's buying back in some of the AI names that's helping the NASDAQ today. Nvidia, Oracle, Micron, all seeing some nice gains. Plus metals. Momentum is still strong with gold and silver, as you just heard, hitting new highs. And while Bitcoin briefly rallied back above 90k, we are back below that level right now. We begin today with this comeback in the AI trade, the NASDAQ 100 turning positive on the month now as investors reassess names like Nvidia, Oracle and Core Weave, all three seeing big gains over the past week. Nvidia shares up 4% as the company lays out plans to ship those chips to China. Oracle continues to move higher after its JV with TikTok and Coreweave is up nearly 20% in the past week. They joined the Department of Energy's Genesis mission. So is the AI trade back for good this time or will this rally fade again? Let's ask Gene Munster. He's managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management. And Gene, I'm curious what you think. I have a theory, but I want to know what yours what you think is going on here. I mean, to me it seems like a lot actually improved sentiment after OpenAI did that massive raise last week after Sam Altman came out and defended kind of the idea of where's all the money going to come for for their data center ambitions over the next few years on that podcast, Alex Cantrowitz did that. Is that what turned things around here? What do you think is going on?

[Gene Munster]

I think it was. That was the moment. And just to put some more context that, this $830 billion valuation, the fact that they're confident that they can raise tens of billions, I think is evidence of example of a private market company that's really setting the narrative on the public side. And I think that this whole concept that this is a profitless prosperity around these large language models I think is continuing to be put to rest. We understand, and investors understand that, that the pricing of tokens is going to go down, by Sam Altman's account, 10x per year, but ultimately the usage is going to increase by more. And I think that that is at the center of this big raise. I want to put some more quick context about why that was encouraging. If you look at his expectations about where their revenue is going to go over the next few years, doubling in each of the next few years, that basically puts OpenAI at a valuation of about 12 times calendar 26 revenue. Now, that is very favorable relative. That's kind of in line, maybe like a slight premium to the rest of software, for example. And keep in mind that this is growing at 100% versus software growing at 15%.

[Kelly Evans]

So Kelly, just jump in there and say, in other words, what you're saying is they're trading at about 12 times price to sales. I know it's not a perfect metric by the end of 2026, which is in line with where other software type companies would trade. They're not trading, in other words, at some crazy multiple. If their revenues are achievable in just the next 12 months.

[Gene Munster]

Exactly. And you know, I just want to emphasize one comment, which is where the whole AI conversation comes down. If that is achievable. And ultimately I'm in the camp that this is achievable. I think that there's upside to that 100% growth. They've showed that they've continued to do that. And, and I think that this commentary about this raise gives some investors some confidence to look back. Over the past month, there's been five positive data points, large positive data points related to the OpenAI, everything from micron earnings to commentary from AWS's CEO about how they're building out. Nvidia raised their guidance for calendar 26 from 50% growth to mid-60s, and that excludes age 20s. And so I think what this has given us, this gift essentially from OpenAI from their fundraisers given investors a chance to step back and saying, wait a minute, maybe I looked past what has been some really impressive updates related to where AI is over the past month. And so I think that's part of the recovery, and I emphasize the word recovery. It still isn't fully. I don't think the market is fully factoring in all of the good news we've heard around AI over the past month.

[Kelly Evans]

Sure. And I'm going through your list here and you're like, look, I mean, you've mentioned some of this. Amazon Web Services demand keeps skyrocketing in video raised their calendar 26 growth to 65% from 50 just at the end of November. Broadcom, I mean, let's talk about what a quarter that was and look at what happened with the stock Oracle. Right. Can I ask a weird question, Gene? It seems like in a way the better OpenAI's prospects look, the better the whole AI trade does, whereas the better Gemini's prospects look, which seem to come at the expense of open air to some degree, the more that trade looks a little shaky, even though it's good for Google's shares. Am I overemphasizing that distinction?

[Gene Munster]

I think so. I think at the end of the day, the central question we're all asking back to a comment you had a minute ago about if they hit this. I think when it comes to Google, when it comes to OpenAI, all the large language models, all these companies, is just that simple question of do you believe that ultimately the growth of these companies will exceed high expectations? And I think if Google continues to grow a surge higher than where investors think, it's kind of 11 12% for calendar 27, they recently grew at 14%. Look at what's happened obviously with Google Cloud and that impressive growth. If they continue to do that, I think it's going to be a positive read for the overall trade. I think that whether it's Google or positive commentary comes out. Now, that's the good news, is that across the board, the data points continue to be most positive. Now, again, the market may not give it credit in any week to week, but the data points have been most positive.

[Kelly Evans]

Yeah.

[Gene Munster]

The challenge there is that imagine what would happen if we actually got a negative data point. I don't foresee one, but I think that is the question that continues to nag investors. Are we one week away from a negative data point, which ends up kind of putting us in a funk again?

[Kelly Evans]

Right. Right now, I mean, even look at the stock reaction for Broadcom and Oracle and yet what did Broadcom say? Their revenue was up 65% year on year. Their backlog went up by $50 billion to 160. Half of that is in AI. That backlog went up to 73 billion. I mean, the numbers in that sense just keep getting better. I guess to your point, the only question remains, well, how much longer can that literally remain true?

[Gene Munster]

Well, let's look at Micron. So they reported on December 17, they guided their next quarter to 18.7 billion in revenue. The street was at 14 and a half billion. Stocks been up 20% since then. But like that, that is an example of this. These high bars continue to get crushed. I want to rewind on Nvidia for example, and we've talked about that. 65% growth is what they're suggesting. The Street's not there yet, but that's what they're suggesting. If we go back and look at where we were a year ago, the expectation was for 18% growth in calendar 26.

[Jeff Curry]

Wow.

[Gene Munster]

And so when the point is this is, it keeps coming back to. It's hard for me to imagine I want to be level headed against all the noise that's out there and don't want to take the bait of just looking at this with only rose colored glasses. I don't want to take that bait. But the reality is that the amount of investment that's going on, I think is going to be more substantial than what the bullish cases are. And ultimately that's the brain of AI. It's getting bigger and bigger and eventually we're going to see the, that, the, the output, the use case, the utility kicking in. And that's the reason why I believe we're still early.

[Kelly Evans]

Yeah, and Sam talked about this. You were telling Alex Kancho, it's like, look, you know these, he's like, I'm seeing what these models are going to do. They're going to keep getting better and better. And I know there are some skeptics who say, well, at some point they're going to get so efficient they need less compute and all of that. But it's amazing what you said, which is that A year ago Nvidia's projected growth rate for this coming year was 18%. And now the company itself is telling you it's going to be 65, which.

[Gene Munster]

Means it's probably 75 or better.

[Kelly Evans]

Crazy. So do you think it becomes more efficient over time? And ultimately all of this compute, you know, is obsolete. And if so, does it matter? Because we're still multiple years off from that, or could that be the kind of thing that comes out in Q1 and takes the market? I mean, and it's interesting that the biggest thing investors are puking about, if you'll pardon the language with Oracle, for example, is that their investment, they think is going to be up 67% versus expectations next year. I mean, that's a huge number. Right. So the pushback seems to be, hey, you're going a little too crazy. But I guess if you were from the bull's point of view, it's, look, this is a new era of compute, and at least they're going all in.

[Gene Munster]

Yeah, we'll go back to that question about like, you know, do you believe, like what level do you believe even the people who are skeptical about this will say that AI is going to be transformative? It's the level of transformation. But this idea about like COMPUTE getting cheaper and therefore profitless prosperity, I mean, that's a well thought out negative case on this. But again, my belief, I think we're actually going to see a surprise where the pricing of these, this 10x decline that Sam Altman was talking about. I think when these models start actually showing the utility that they're capable of, I don't think we're going to see that kind of pricing. Quick kind of context to this is over the past 20 years we've gone back and looked at 10 different content services like Apple Music, Netflix, Hulu, Cirrus, for example, and that was always like this profitless prosperity around content. And it turns out that the pricing on all those services on average is growing 3% faster than inflation. And so the reality is this, when something becomes indisposable, people will pay up for it. And I think that that is going to be the surprise moment in AI. We're probably a couple years away from it where all of a sudden the profitability of these LLM companies, like everything from Xai OpenAI Anthropic, I think the profitability of these is really going to surprise to the upside.

[Kelly Evans]

Yeah. And I know, as you say, you know, we're not even in the go go years yet. We haven't had the gold standard AI companies going public. So we haven't even had the second tier. So I guess you can rest a little easy. Gene, thanks so much. We appreciate it today. Thank you, Gene Munster. In other big news, Netflix may not win Warner Brothers after all. At least that's what Paramount is hoping after they beefed up their bid for Warner Brothers Discovery and they didn't boost the offer. Per se. But Larry Ellison is now personally backing the bid, guaranteeing $40 billion in equity financing for the deal. The elder Ellison stepping in to address WBD concerns over where the cash would come from. Shares of Paramount and Warner both higher on the news while Netflix is down about a percent. Here with his thoughts is Peter Cipino, senior analyst at Wolf Research. And Peter, do you think this increases the odds that Paramount actually wins?

[Peter Cipino]

It definitely increases the odds. These horses look like they're neck and neck. Paramount, with today's news, has given the Warner board more of the certainty that it's been asking for, although we're not convinced that it's offered enough to get this done.

[Kelly Evans]

Remind me again what your thoughts are about kind of who this makes most sense with. Is it Paramount or is it Netflix?

[Peter Cipino]

Well, the company that can make the most of Warner Brothers economically is Netflix. Netflix has the best mousetrap in the world for turning long form premium video into profit dollars. However, this merger might be much more important strategically to Paramount because scale is just so important in streaming and Paramount doesn't have it, at least to a competitive degree right now. And Warner would really vault Paramount forward.

[Kelly Evans]

Right. And look at the share price of Warner Brothers. It's trading up three and a half percent, closer to 29, I believe. Netflix offer was, was it 28 and Paramount was 30, is that right?

[Steve Liesman]

Yeah.

[Peter Cipino]

So Netflix offered 2775. And it's important to remember that the Netflix offer leaves a stub equity as an, as an additional source of value for the Warner Brothers shareholders. And so what I mean is the cable network portfolio of Warner Brothers, which will be known as Discovery Global, will continue to trade. It will act like a dividend to the Warner Brothers shareholders. And so we think that's worth about a dollar per share per WBD share. And so the Netflix offer should be thought about as 2775 for the studios plus a buck for that streaming in studios or for the, for that Warner cable network portfolio that adds up to just under 29. It's funny that the Paramount merger or offer looks greater at $30 cash. But if the company, if Warner goes with Paramount, they have to pay a breakup fee to Netflix of about $1 per Warner share. And so both bids right now from a value perspective end up near 29.

[Kelly Evans]

Fascinating. And there's, there we are 24 cents shy of that. So again, the market is kind of recognizing all of this. So if you were the chair of.

[Peter Cipino]

The board is saying there's a higher bid coming for sure.

[Kelly Evans]

Exactly. So does so do. Who's going to raise their bids? Are both sides going to raise their bids? If you were the chairman of the, of the board or the board itself of Paramount, what do you do here?

[Peter Cipino]

Well, Paramount seems to have made six offers by their own statement and now they've adjusted this offer. And so I have a hard time convincing myself that this is their last and final. Netflix has plenty of capacity to pay more. Their equity market cap of 425 some odd billion makes this a relatively easy financial bite. And so I can see why the Arbitra market is betting on a higher deal price.

[Kelly Evans]

And if Netflix were to just say, just kidding, we just wanted to inflict the most pain on Paramount, raise the price as much as possible. We walk away with our breakup fee and we're chuckling all the way to the bank. Is that actually a good outcome for them? Or would the much better outcome for Netflix be to get access to this library and these assets?

[Peter Cipino]

Netflix is in such an enviable position because they have a bright future on both paths. Having said that, I think they'd be better off buying these assets. And the stock market has sold off Netflix stock because of the uncertainty that this deal brings into the Netflix story. Netflix has been this beautiful, pure play organic growth company and that would come to an end with this merger. But we think Netflix would be a terrific owner of these assets if they can win them. Paramount just needs them more. And so our probability, we've been assigning a higher probability to Paramount winning for that simple reason.

[Kelly Evans]

All right, we'll see if they make a move to raise the bid again. Netflix shares are down 23% over the past month as this rages on. And it's not over yet. Peter, thanks.

[Peter Cipino]

Thank you.

[Kelly Evans]

Peter Cipino with Wolf Research. Coming up, we're down to the final four candidates for Fed Chair with one more interview to go. What the prediction markets are betting and what the winner will mean for rates. Plus, gold and silver prices are back at record highs. But can the momentum continue into next year? We'll delve into that and the stocks that may benefit on Tim Seymour's naughty and nice list. The exchange is back after this. This is the exchange on cnbc. $1.1 billion in federal funding for public.

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[Kelly Evans]

We are theoretically in the home stretch of the race to become the next Fed Chair. The President set to interview Blackrock's Rick Reeder at Mar? A Lago next week, making him the final candidate to meet with the President in this final round. I feel like I'm talking about the NCAA or something. Kalshee Prediction markets have NEC director Kevin Hassan in the lead with a 57% chance of getting the job. Now there's Warsh at 23, Waller at 12. I don't see reader on that list Steve Liesman who is here with a closer look at some of the wild cards.

[Steve Liesman]

That's a production thing. He's about 6% as my 6%. Okay, we'll get to that. But the extended search for the next Fed chair Kelly reaching the end game to use the sports metaphor, with four remaining candidates. People familiar with the situation say the president could name the new Fed chair by the first week of January. After reviewing the last candidate, Rick Reeder at an interview in Mar a Lago. There's been pushback on Wall street against NSC director Kevin Hassett as reported by cnbc. You can see there Politico had a story and the FT as well concern Hassett is not seen as independent enough from the President, but the Treasury Secretary he's pushed back on that criticism. He's also supported reforms at the Fed similar to those called for by former former Fed governor Kevin Warsh. The process of interviews first the treasury, then at the White House and winnowing it down to now four candidates was one Bessett champion beginning back in the fall. So he's like in favor of all of them Living unclear which of the four remaining candidates best in supports but his comments on HACCP did help restore him to the be the runaway favorite at 57% in those prediction markets you could see there with read or not there at 6%. Bessant might want to steer clear of favoring one candidate explicitly because his predecessor is continually blamed by the president for the pick of Fed Chair Powell, who the president doesn't like. Besson also knows that in the end President Trump is going to make this choice on his own. It's not a committee decision.

[Kelly Evans]

I was just thinking about that, how he gives his. Steve Mnuchin, you know, he gave me a bad pick with Powell. But what is it, you know, right now we all think we kind of know about these candidates and then they take the job and you realize that even the president may not have really known what he wanted to know about them and maybe about how they do the job. And is Rick Reeder a Democrat, by the way?

[Steve Liesman]

It's my understanding he is. But I will tell you, Rick Reeder won't talk to us. He's like the most religious guy about not being. Not talking at all. He's like he's old school in that regard.

[Kelly Evans]

I don't know if that's more or less endearing to the President who sometimes seems to like this kind of winky relationship between the President.

[Steve Liesman]

Having covered several of these, this is the most different of any one that I've ever covered. And I say no.

[Kelly Evans]

In what way?

[Steve Liesman]

Well, it's all public. I mean, it used to be that I can tell you if you were a fed governor or a fed press, if you were nominated to be a fed governor, fed president, you shut up right at that moment. And only several months after approval would you ever even deign to talk to the press. Now it seems like talking to the press is part of the process.

[Kelly Evans]

I agree with you. It does seem. That's why I was joking about this feeling with ncaa, we shouldn't really. It feels odd to be talking about it. I almost don't trust that we know as much as we think we know about the process, if that makes sense.

[Steve Liesman]

I think that's probably true. I think the people who I talk to who think they know about the process admit they don't really know about the process. That's part of what's happening here. But I do think it's interesting to try to focus on what Bessant may want. And it's very hard to figure that out right now because he's sort of been to me, he's been a bit like sort of the rudder that's keeping the ship on tack in terms of where it's going with the interview process and keeping that process, but both transparent. So you don't want to be critical of the administration in the sense that they're being more transparent about this other than other administrations as well.

[Kelly Evans]

Right. It's like they might be more political, but they're also more transparent about being more political. They would say they're not being political. I'm just saying.

[Steve Liesman]

Right. And it's opened the door for a lot of this politicking that's been out there. That's the reason why you had, I mean, those three stories we put up. Mine was one that was sort of talking about Wall street people being concerned. The Politico story had the pushback on Hassett coming from inside the White House, which we did not have.

[Peter Cipino]

But.

[Steve Liesman]

And I think there's talk about some of this being an orchestrated campaign. And I think what we've picked up was something of an organic campaign. But then, you know, Besson pushed back on that and that restored Hasset's odds quickly.

[Kelly Evans]

If you had to say what would be a real wild card right now? Is there anything else that kind of may lurk here and surprise us in this process, or do you think this is kind of what we know?

[Steve Liesman]

I don't think so. I think there's one wild card thought here, which is interesting to me, which is the President could pick the person most likely to do his bidding, but he might also want to pick the person most likely to be able to sway the committee. In that sense, somebody like Chris Waller goes up in value to the President. Like you can have a guy who. And it's going to be a guy.

[Kelly Evans]

If it's someone too political, where the rest of the committee feels like to push back against him would push back.

[Steve Liesman]

Against him, then the president would not get the lower rates he wants, as opposed to somebody like Chris Waller, who I think many people acknowledge has done the best job of laying out the case. Not just that he wants lower rates, but a system or a framework for why rates can be lower.

[Kelly Evans]

Right.

[Steve Liesman]

And that's something that I think Powell has adopted and other people as well. And that's come from the labor market by saying, you know what? The labor market is not going to be a source of inflation. And so therefore you can cut rates and not worry about the tariff induced price increases.

[Kelly Evans]

I love it. Steve, thank you. Appreciate walking through us as always. And let's turn to our next guest who says whoever leads the Fed next inherits a numb economy. His words. What does he mean by that let's bring in David Hardin. He's CEO and Chief Investment Officer at Summit Global Investments. A numb economy, what does that mean?

[David Hardin]

That's a great question, Kelly. Thanks for having me. You know, I think if you look at this last year we've had a number of shocks from the federal debt to shutdowns in the government strikes, geopolitical risks, and they're going to continue in 2026, but we're kind of numb to it. No one's really doing anything. The consumer is still spending, so it's a good. Unemployment, still low. And that's a good thing. And so I think overall, no matter what he chooses for this Fed, the reality is, is I think the market marches on.

[Kelly Evans]

In other words, we can't be too shocked by whatever's coming. The, the economy is kind of in a good spot. The consumer is going to get a tailwind next year. And you know, this politicking at the top of the Fed, I mean, probably the bigger risk, honestly that a lot of people are worried about is maybe slightly looser on the margin and the economy doesn't need policy that's that much looser. That's probably the bigger risk for the markets.

[David Hardin]

Right. And it gets kind of like old news in the sense of we hear it so much, we just, we just are tired of it, so we just move to other things and so we look for other things to keep our attention.

[Kelly Evans]

That being the case, David, how are you setting up for next year? Talk about being numb. You know, is it a, is it not the. What do you think about the metals? I mean, there's a lot of topics that are becoming, you know, sort of, we talk about them almost constantly, but you have to still decide which of these are going to be the best stewards of capital for the next 12 months.

[David Hardin]

Well, and if you look out, it might be a bifurcated year. So let's just take it in a chunk of for the first six months of the year year. And the reality is, is that earnings per share revisions for AI type of CapEx spending and these type of companies in tech large cap specifically has been off the charts better than anywhere else. And I think that continues. And so even though there is some negative sayings out there and it's people worried about valuations, we just talked about 65%. You know, that's the company releasing how much Nvidia is going to be up. So in reality I think that this continues. And yeah, there's going to be a little bit of volatility, but I Think you want to be in some of these mag sevens? I think you want to be in this trade still.

[Kelly Evans]

Yeah. And we should differentiate a little bit between one and the other because the AI trade has a basket of outperformers, whereas the MAG 7 has been, you know, there's some outperformers, there's some kind of in ho hum, there's some laggards this year. So you like Microsoft, you like Google, you would sell or avoid Tesla. Talk about that.

[David Hardin]

You bet. Well, you know the first, there's a lot to like about Microsoft, one of my preferred mag sevens and you're right, it plays in both the AI a little bit and as well as the Mag 7, it's high quality earnings and with that AI tilt, I like that Google has their own things. We know they're exceeding on return on equity, high profit margins, etc. But Tesla is my least favorite and I think you're paying for a lot of volatility. They've had some negative earnings per share. I don't think the real AI is going to be taken advantage of here for Tesla. So the other thing is that I love Elon Musk in the sense that he's going to let us know, I've always said this, he's going to let us know when we need to get long Tesla again. And right now he's not doing that. So if he's not doing that, I'm not doing that.

[Kelly Evans]

Elaborate on that first because I love talking and debating Tesla. Obviously people have very strong opinions about it, but you have to respect the stock being back at all time highs even after he exited the White House with all the ups and downs they've had and with it's obvious we're now getting out of the mushy middle of driverless cars to them really going mainstream and that must benefit Tesla substantially in the years ahead. So why are you a little bit more cautious about it? And what are you waiting to hear from Musk himself?

[David Hardin]

So that's a great question. First, Tesla is up today, it's doing well and you're right, it's hitting some all time highs. I think that it's in the right space. But if you look at capital and spending capital right now I'd rather be in some other AI type tech companies if I'm in that space or some mag 7 if I'm in that space. And what I'm looking for Musk to say is that he's back involved and that this is the future. He's always been very, very good at telling us his vision and how he's going to be better than others in the same space. He hasn't said that for a while. I'm waiting for him to say that.

[Kelly Evans]

Hmm. That's interesting because I always feel that he's out there every day with a message on X about this or that. But you know, to be fair, I can't think of an explicit comment he's made recently other than that, I wouldn't say he's projecting a message of low confidence in the company, would you?

[David Hardin]

Absolutely not. No. He wouldn't put in that package for him if there was low confidence. So I do agree that I don't think he understands the definition of no confidence. He only has confidence. But the reality is that you have to put money to work. And I think there's some other bets right now that are less volatile, that probably manage your risk a lot better, and yet you still have exposure to tech and to growth.

[Kelly Evans]

All right, fair enough. David, thanks so much. Really appreciate it today. Thanks for David Hardin with Summit Global Investments. Speaking of Tesla, coming up, we're going to talk about San Francisco's power outage over the weekend that wreaked some havoc on Waymo Robo Taxis. The details and how Elon Musk is responding ahead. And as we head to break, check out Airbnb on pace for its 10th straight positive day, extending its record win streak dating back to its IPO five years ago this month. It's up more than 12% over this recent period for its best 10 day period since February. We're back with more right after this.

[Gene Munster]

$1.1 billion in federal funding for public media has been eliminated, a decision that.

[Kelly Evans]

Could mean fewer local reporters, fewer stories that connect us, and fewer journalists holding.

[Gene Munster]

Power to account as the NPR network enters a new chapter.

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Your support is critical.

[Gene Munster]

Your donation today can make a difference.

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Donate by visiting donate.NPR.org.

[Andy Richter]

Hi there, it's Andy Richter, and I'm here to tell you about my podcast, the Three Questions with Andy Richter. Each week I invite friends, comedians, actors and musicians to discuss these three questions. Where do you come from, where are you going, and what have you learned? New episodes are out every Tuesday with guests like Julie Bowen, Ted Danson, Tig Notaro, Will Arnett, Phoebe Bridgers, and more. You can also tune in for my weekly Andy Richter Call in show episodes where me and a special guest invite callers to weigh in on topics like dating, disasters, bad teachers, and lots more. Listen to the Three Questions with Andy Richter.

[Kelly Evans]

Wherever you get your podcasts.

[Capella University Announcer]

Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals, like business management, strategic planning, and effective communication, and you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at capella. Edu.

[Kelly Evans]

Stocks are starting the week in the green with the Dow and S and P trying forget this, their eighth straight positive month, Dumpchi, which would be their longest streak in eight years. More on that in the day's other biggest Ubers.

[Jeff Curry]

It has been quite a rally for sure, but let's start things off with a headline news piece that's driving some of the market action, and that's shares of Dominion Energy, which are actually down five and a half percent, taking a hit. One of the worst performers in the S and P. That's after the Trump administration halted further development of wind projects, including the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, which is the biggest project of its kind in the entirety of America. Dominion Energy is actually the utility company responsible for that project. Four other wind projects are also having their leases paused. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the move was due to needing some time to assess policy possible national security risks. So keep an eye on Dominion down five and a half. Moving on to another headline mover, shares of UK based fund manager Janice Henderson higher after it agreed to be taken private in a deal involving both Try and Fund Management and General Catalyst. They will pay 49 bucks a share in cash to take him over. That's roughly seven and a half billion dollars. News of that deal was reported back by the Journal on October 27 with Senso shares higher so we can see Janice Henderson up 3% and we'll end with another deal. Shares of Coinbase are higher after the crypto exchange operator announced it would purchase startup predictions market platform. The clearing company Coinbase says the deal will help it scale up its presence in the red hot predictions market industry and help it grow towards becoming a multi asset exchange operator. Those terms were not disclosed, But Coinbase shares up 2%. I'll send things Kelly back over to you.

[Kelly Evans]

Makes sense. I think we're going to need some regulatory clarity on this front with all of this action. Thanks very much. Let's get to Christina Parts and Evil for the CNBC News update. Christina Kelly, A draft Pentagon report on China's military ambitions reportedly says that Beijing has likely loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles into three silos. That's according to Reuters, which also says the draft report argues China has no desire for arms control talks. The Chinese Communist Party has called reports of a military buildup, quote, a smear to defame China and mislead the international community. Uber and Lyft will both start testing Baidu's robo taxis in London next year. Lyft made the announcement today. Uber announced its plans just last summer to test vehicles there as part of its own deal. Baidu, Lyft's CEO, posted on X today that it will start testing once it gets local regulatory approval and plans to scale to hundreds of Baidu's EVs just there. But he did not give a timeline for the commercial launch. And the NBA announced today that it's moving forward on a joint plan with the International Basketball Ball Federation to explore a new professional men's league in Europe. A person familiar with the matter tells CNBC Sports that franchise values could be upwards of $1 billion or at least $1 billion.

[Deirdre Bosa]

Not bad.

[Kelly Evans]

I mean, all their star players are from Europe. It kind of makes sense on some level. Christina, thanks very much. Coming up, the metals are enjoying a nice run to end the year. Gold is up six months in a row for the first time in more than two decades. Will this momentum carry over into 26? We'll ask our trader and get the stocks on. Oh, yes, his naughty and nice list. Stay tuned. Gold and silver are added again, both hitting fresh highs again today. Gold's up 70% now this year. It's also on pace for its sixth straight monthly gain for the first time in 23 years. Don't be stuck. Stats make you itchy. While silver has more than doubled, it's up 136%. Best year since 1979. Will this rally continue into the new year? Let's ask Tim Seymour. He's the CIO of Seymour Asset Management, a CNBC contributor. And you have some kind of clever ways for those who don't want to have to make a call on this one way or the other, one of your stocks in particular. Am I going to if I jumping ahead here?

[Andy Richter]

If we talk about real jump anywhere you want.

[Kelly Evans]

You want to start with just the metals.

[Andy Richter]

Well, and I'm thinking about it's Christmas Eve and we got Burl Ives going silver and gold over and over.

[Deirdre Bosa]

Yes.

[Kelly Evans]

We were talking you might want to.

[Andy Richter]

Quit your day job. Don't quit your day job.

[Kelly Evans]

But I liked also what we heard last hour where they Were talking about look gold might have strong fundamentals in the case of central bank buying. And Jeff Curry last hour was, last week was saying look he thinks a lot of these metal trades are going to ultimately play catch up to establish their historical ratios. He likes platinum so that also the EU is relaxing its kind of switch over to away from combustion engines. That'll favor.

[Steve Liesman]

Right.

[Kelly Evans]

So do you think everything else plays catch up to gold? Do you think the whole thing needs to take a pause here? Is silver more speculative or is it, does it have a better usage case? I'm just curious.

[Andy Richter]

So it has industrial use but I love gold. I think Gold 6000 by 28 if not before we know the central bank narrative, we know the asset class narrative. Morgan Stanley out there saying it could be up to 20%. You know I don't know. I do know that the deficit side of gold is also not as understood a fun fact that many people maybe have heard. You've probably heard this but all the gold ever mined could fit on a football field two to three feet high. That's it. And there's not new supply. New mines take six to nine years. We love to talk about that. We'll probably talk about copper. So we'll talk about copper. It's all on some level there is an industrial metal story that follows. Some of this is Fed driven, some of this is deficit story. Some of this is is kind of central bank dynamics. I think as you get into copper it's, it's a case where there really is a deficit dynamic. We heard this morning from Anto Gufas, Anto Gefasta which is one of the largest Latin American copper producers in their sales to China that they're. The processing fee, they've cut that to zero. You only do that when there's really tight supply. So what's going on in copper? Combine that with some global cyclicality that I think is probably better than people had expected. I think copper and I think industrial metals are following and yes silver has industrial metals real use but I think some of this is just a silver catch up trade to relative historical.

[Kelly Evans]

So you think it keeps going. Let's move that along then to your, your nice and naughty list. On the nice list one of the names is Rio Tinto. It's up 36% this year. I mean it's not as good as silver and gold but it's something.

[Andy Richter]

No, it's.

[Kelly Evans]

Why do you like this?

[Andy Richter]

It's, it's, it's like you Kelly, nice. This year probably you'll be Nice next year. That's who you are. I think Rio the story is coming around both in terms of the copper production. This was at 1.15% of the top line. It's probably, probably going to be closer to 40 out a couple of years. They have the fastest copper growth of the integrated miners. I think if you look at also just where they are selling iron ore and some of the core other parts of the bulks that they're involved in. This is a company that I think is almost intrinsically cheap to the underlying.

[Kelly Evans]

We've heard of people making the case for Freeport. I don't know if you would say yeah one or the other. If you feel more strongly about Rio.

[Andy Richter]

Or I feel very strongly about Freeport to I'm long Freeport. You can get the copper miners ETF COP X and if you look at that's a great looking chart for the reasons we're talking about. I like Freeport also. Freeport has gold exposure as well. What I like about Rio is it pays a really nice div which isn't a reason to buy a stock but the capital discipline for them is extraordinary. I think you have upside optionality on China. If you get anything in terms of an uplift in the macro in China this has always been a big part of the story but more importantly this is actually a balance sheet that's never been better and I think it's the best of the diversified market.

[Kelly Evans]

This is right. I do wonder about inflation next year but that's a side note. The one more stock on your nice list then the naughty one makes me laugh so I want to get to that. But UPS is one that you like for next year. Again talk about that one kind of a not a great look. It's down 20%.

[Andy Richter]

This is kind of like this is the story of my life. Like naughty to nice. Like I was definitely at one point, you know. And I think this is a case where UPS is about relative improvement in their core business. What we just saw in their third quarter numbers where first of all they beat consensus, they upgraded their 4Q but actually US margins are going a little bit higher even at a time when year over year US volumes are going down. That never happens and it's. It's telling you that they're running this company better. It's certainly cheap to itself. You're also paid a decent div. Again, not a reason I go out and buy companies. I am long this one. But I do think this is about also a macro story. Look at the chart on Fedex I.

[Kelly Evans]

Was going to ask. And I do that one too well.

[Andy Richter]

I think it's getting pulled higher because I think the story around transports remains very constructive. But this is one that really was naughty and it was about showing the operational improvement. And I think we're there.

[Kelly Evans]

It just reminds me in the spring I was at a supply chain dinner, which everyone will laugh because I talked about it for like a week or two and everybody said we're going to be in recession by the end of the year, basically. And here we are talking about, about the upside case for next year. The recession never came by the transports like this was not what most people had on their list, let's put it that way.

[Andy Richter]

No question.

[Kelly Evans]

That brings us to what is on your naughty list. I don't know why we're calling it this. Wal Mart incredible performer. Shares are up 25% this year. But effectively this is one that you think you wouldn't put under the tree.

[Andy Richter]

I think less naughty, less nice equals naughty. And I think it's a case where it's. Everybody knows it's a naughty valuation. I would just say that all they need to do is if they do 3 bucks a share by 27, you can do the math on that. At 30 times, it's a $90 stock. And, and the multiple, I agree, should be larger.

[Kelly Evans]

But I think at 112 right now.

[Andy Richter]

Yeah, excuse me. I think it's a case where it really is a U.S. comp story. And if comps come in kind of low to mid singles, I think that's not enough of a bar for them.

[Kelly Evans]

But then Costco got that downgrade the other day. They think their comps are deciding accelerating a little bit. How can both Walmart and Costco.

[Andy Richter]

Well, I think part of the naughty call and Walmart, the stock, not in terms of the company because obviously they're executing and they're going to continue to. And I have a position in Walmart, but I think on a relative basis, that's the story. And I wonder whether what's going on with the, with the Costco chart is a function also of a multiple catching up to a stock eventually. And I think you might see some Walmart follow through there.

[Kelly Evans]

Heretical, Tim.

[Steve Liesman]

Who knows?

[Kelly Evans]

Appreciate it.

[Andy Richter]

Thanks, Tim.

[Kelly Evans]

Seymour. Coming up, a blackout over the weekend plunging 130,000 San Franciscans into darkness and stalling the city's Waymo fleet in its tracks. We have those details when we come back. Waymos are up and running again in San Francisco after a Saturday blackout stopped the robo taxis in their tracks throughout the city. Deirdre Bosa digging into what it means for the robo taxi rollout more broadly in today's tech check. Deirdre.

[Deirdre Bosa]

Hey, Kelly. So let me just show you. These are scenes from Saturday night in San Francisco. You might have seen them on social media or scenes just like this. So you essentially had Waymos stalled in intersections across lots of different streets, backing up traffic across different parts of the city. Now the vehicles, they're designed to handle dead traffic lights and keep moving even without a wireless signal. But when multiple systems failed at once, the response was maximum caution and that quickly turned into gridlock. Now it all signals just how high the bar is for Waymo. It's essentially pioneering a new driverless system under full regulatory and public scrutiny. So the tolerance for error, as we've seen, is close to zero. That kind of pressure has really shaped Waymo's strategy, Kelly, and it highlights the different route that Tesla has gone. It is trying to build autonomy that behaves more like a human, one that can improvise amid the ambiguity, like a blackout. For example, Tesla, under its technology may read eye contact, edge forward, make a judgment call without perfect signals, and that way may come with safety tradeoffs because it's asking the system to make judgment calls with less certainty. If that works, it could scale faster. Now Waymo has the momentum. Right now it's raising new capital at a $100 billion plus valuation. It's expanding to lots of new cities. As you can see on this map here. The company says that it is focused on rapidly integrating the lessons that were learned over the weekend. But this incident really does put a spotlight on whether scaling means careful city by city expansion that Waymo has been working on, or systems more like the one that Elon Musk is working on, that can adapt in real time and behave more like a human.

[Kelly Evans]

So why did the Waymos stop working? You'd think a San Francisco power, I guess in my head, I think they run off of data centers that could be in Northern Virginia. Right? I mean, I'm sorry, surprised that this happened.

[Deirdre Bosa]

I mean, that is something I've been trying to get to the bottom of. I have emailed and called different people at Waymo several different times. They kind of keep saying that, you know, they point to an example when it stops at a red light that isn't working, it treats it like a four way stop and is extra cautious. So they all just stop. But, you know, this video that we're watching, we saw Waymo sort of just stop in the Middle of the street and middle of intersections doesn't quite accept. Explain it. And so the only kind of conclusion that I can come up with, Kelly, is that they're not generalizing very well.

[Kelly Evans]

Right, right.

[Deirdre Bosa]

It all just shut down when there was too many variables.

[Kelly Evans]

So. And so the argument that Musk is making is that this didn't happen with Tesla's.

[Deirdre Bosa]

But not a fair argument because Tesla does not have a robotaxi network here in San Francisco.

[Kelly Evans]

Driver.

[Deirdre Bosa]

I know the chorus that's going to like crucify me for saying that, but they don't. There is no robotaxi network here without human drivers. It's just a fact. Okay. They're safety drivers. It's not an apple.

[Kelly Evans]

So we don't know by any means. So they do have robo taxis. They have Tesla robo taxis in San Francisco. But all of those robotaxis have a human driver. So we don't.

[Deirdre Bosa]

They have full self driving, which is. It's autonomous driving technology that requires someone behind the wheel. So we don't actually know what would have happened necessarily, necessarily, if there was no driver and what all the Teslas would have done. But I will say the strategy, right? And this is where the key difference comes up. It doesn't sound like more like a human.

[Kelly Evans]

It doesn't sound like the Tesla robotaxis stopped at all. It's not like the human driver saying, oh, I had to take over. It just sounds like they didn't have any issues.

[Deirdre Bosa]

We don't know that's right. And I think. But it's different, right? Because there was a human driver. We don't know if human driver had to take over.

[Kelly Evans]

Right.

[Deirdre Bosa]

It's different and it could have sort of stood. But this is the Waymo is sort of a true, true. No human driver at all.

[Kelly Evans]

Have you checked, Deirdre, your percentage of times. It's an fsd. I know that's an option now I can tell you.

[Deirdre Bosa]

Yes, I will say I'm really impressed with fsd. I use it. I use it on the highway to come into work across the Golden Gate Bridge. I'm really impressed. It's not perfect. I would never sit in the backseat and have it take over at this point. But it is, it is process.

[Kelly Evans]

If that's the bar now, we've come a long way, Deirdre. Appreciate it for now. Thanks. Deirdre Bosa. Coming up, Loop Capital upgrading this retailer today, whose shares are down 10% this month and investors could be underestimating its ability to comp the comp next Year. We'll reveal it next on the Exchange. Welcome back to the Exchange. Our next guest just upgraded Ali's today as he expects the trade down to continue next year despite these hefty refund checks that are coming. Joining us now is Loop Capital's Anthony Jacumba. Anthony and others on the street feel differently and are more concerned about the stock's prospects. So tell us what you expect.

[Anthony Jacumba]

Sure, absolutely. So I think that as you said, I expect Ali to be able to comp the comp in 2026. I think that there's too much concern about the tough comparisons that they're going to face. And it really to me comes down to four different factors. First off, you know they are going to continue to benefit from the big lots bankruptcy and a lot of that is going to be access to merchandise. I mean folks who are supplying big lots now have this big hole to fill. The second thing is that the management team, I just really feel like they're much more scientific and data driven compared to their predecessors. The third thing is that the macro environment remains quite challenged. So I do think that they will benefit from a trade down. And the fourth thing is that they are carrying more consumables which I think drives more consistent store traffic.

[Kelly Evans]

Yeah, apparently the food is actually a big kind of business for them. Jefferies says they're in the danger zone. Why? Why you don't share any of those concerns?

[Anthony Jacumba]

Well, I don't know exactly, you know, what Jefferies wrote in terms of being in the danger zone. But I'm not terribly concerned. I mean, look, I think all they really have to do is calm the competency. In other words, the more that folks see that this is a company that consistently grow their comp store sales and by the way, they just have to be low single digs from my perspective. And then you kind of marry that with continued square footage growth, continued margin expansion and the stock will work. And you know, part of the reason I feel very strongly about that is because other comparable companies trade at 30 times earnings. And before our upgrade these guys are trading at more like 24, 25.

[Kelly Evans]

Yeah, Tim Seymour just put Walmart on his naughty list. Says it's too expensive. And maybe Ollie's would be an example of one that's not. You think the consumer's going to do well next year or people getting too hyped up about this?

[Anthony Jacumba]

Certainly in early 2026 we are very optimistic about higher income tax returns. And remember with this core low income consumer, if they get a bigger tax return, it's not that they're going to save it, they're going to spend it. And so we definitely see a significant tailwind for ollie's in early 2026 from those tax refunds.

[Kelly Evans]

All right, Anthony, a pleasure. Thanks so much for joining us today.

[Anthony Jacumba]

Anytime.

[Kelly Evans]

Anthony Jacumba at Loop. And that's it for us. Thank you for watching the exchange.

[Deirdre Bosa]

Thank you.

[Kelly Evans]

Join Brian Sullivan for Power Lunch right after this quick break. You've been listening to the exchange. Make sure you're subscribed to get each episode every day, same time, same place.

[Capella University Announcer]

Is it time to reimagine your future? The right business skills may make a difference in your career. At Capella University, we offer a relevant education that's designed to focus on what you need to know in the business world. We'll teach professional skills to help you pursue your goals like business management, strategic planning and effective communication. And you can apply these skills right away. A different future is closer than you think with Capella University. Learn more at Capella Eduard.