Podcast Summary: The Exchange (CNBC)

Episode: TikTok's U.S. Investors, Private Equity Falters and OpenAI Continues Spending
Date: September 25, 2025
Host(s): Melissa Lee, Mike Santoli
Notable Guests: Gene Munster (Deepwater Asset Management), Mark Douglas (Mountain), Steve Quirk (Robinhood), Leslie Picker (CNBC), Ali Gotze (Databricks CEO), David Faber (CNBC)

Overview

This episode of The Exchange presents a whistle-stop look at the day’s biggest business headlines, with a deep dive into three fast-moving areas:

• The U.S. government-brokered sale of TikTok and its market ramifications,
• The ongoing explosion of spending in AI infrastructure, especially by OpenAI and partners,
• The current struggles and headwinds facing private equity and alternative asset managers.

Discussions are augmented with insights from analysts, industry leaders, and CNBC’s reporting team. The episode is packed with firsthand context on market sentiment, corporate strategies, and the real-world impact of regulatory developments.

Key Themes and Segments

1. Market Snapshot & Fed Watch (01:08 - 02:52)

• Markets: Modest pullback from record highs; S&P and Nasdaq are off three straight sessions, but the correction has been shallow thus far (~1.5% off highs).
• Sector Standouts: Energy is one strong sector, even with a small dip in crude; tech is mixed—with Intel rallying on reports of an Apple investment.
• Macro Factors: Hot GDP and jobless claims numbers are pushing yields higher, with the 10-year hovering just under 4.2%. There’s widespread uncertainty around the trajectory and timing of Fed rate cuts.
• Quote:
  “…is it going to be finally the first 3% S&P pullback in five months or is it going to continue to rotate around as we've kind of seen?”
  — Mike Santoli (02:04)

2. AI Infrastructure Spending: Substance vs. Hype (02:52 - 08:17)

Guest: Gene Munster, Deepwater Asset Management

• Spending Boom: Recent headlines tout an “arms race” in AI, with OpenAI alone committing to $850B this week—well outpacing GDPs of many countries.
• Skepticism vs. Hype: There is a disconnect between hyped-up commitments and what’s actually hitting company bottom lines and share prices. Markets want to see real, substantiated CapEx and ROI—not just promises.
• Bottlenecks: Growth may be capped by real-world constraints, such as insufficient power infrastructure to match all the future demand for AI/compute.
• Gene Munster’s Take:
  • “This is all things on the come and I think that that's what the market's having a really hard time digesting…” (06:12)
  • There’s “unbelief” in the market about how transformative AI will be; investors are still waiting for real economic evidence.
  • Believes impact and spending will filter from hyperscalers to smaller companies/startups over several years.
• Quote:
  “If you take what has been said by these companies over the past three weeks at face value … the market and these companies in particular should be … dramatically higher. I think that the market is heavily discounting this type of growth.”
  — Gene Munster (04:33)

3. Intel, Apple, and the Geopolitics of Tech Deals (09:42 - 11:09)

• Intel Surges: Shares jump on rumors of Apple investing in Intel—but it’s unclear if this is strategic technology synergy or a play to curry favor with the U.S. administration.
• Gene Munster: Skeptical, sees little product advantage for Apple, suspects politics is the driving force.
• Quote:
  "So from a product development standpoint there's little to offer there ... that kind of leaves the kind of the political card on the table... testimony of how treacherous the political environment is for these tech companies."
  — Gene Munster (10:14)

4. Regulatory Update: Looming Government Shutdown (12:26 - 15:21)

Correspondent: Mackenzie Sagalos

• Countdown: Six days until potential federal shutdown; the White House threatens mass furloughs if no budget deal.
• Sticking Points: Democrats holding out for health care concessions; Republicans push a “clean” stopgap bill.
• Political Calculus: Both parties seem convinced the other will take the blame for any shutdown.
• Quote:
  "Democrats think the American people deserve health care. Republicans would rather shut down the government than lower health care costs."
  — Sen. Elizabeth Warren via Mackenzie Sagalos (13:29)

5. TikTok’s Forced U.S. Sale – Market & Ad Industry Fallout (18:02 - 23:43)

Guest: Mark Douglas, CEO of Mountain

• Executive Order Expected: President Trump to sign order approving TikTok’s sale to U.S.-led consortium (Oracle, Silver Lake, MGX).
• Ownership Structure:
  • Oracle/Silver Lake/MGX: 45%
  • ByteDance (China): 19.9%
  • Remaining investors (many U.S.-based, former ByteDance investors): 35%
• Advertisers’ Fears:
  • Algorithm Disruption: If the sale prompts a user to download a new U.S. TikTok app, a massive “churn event” could gut user numbers.
  • TikTok Shop Importance: Many overlook the crucial role of TikTok Shop, which drives both influencer engagement and ad revenue.
• Ad Dollars in Motion: Many brands are already diversifying away from TikTok after recent outages and ongoing uncertainty.
• Mark Douglas:
  “…If you have to basically install a new version of TikTok app, not a new version, a new app like the US App, that would be a massive churn event.” (18:51)
  "The money is in all the engagement. If TikTok Shop was disrupted, it would create a second event like that. … That's my biggest concern."
• Timing: Most don’t expect migration or major disruption until after the holiday season.

6. Private Equity Falters Despite Favorable Conditions (25:20 - 28:55)

CNBC’s Leslie Picker

• PE Under Pressure: Stocks like KKR, Carlyle, Blackstone, and TPG are down for the week, despite lower rates and high capital availability.
• Reasons:
  • Rising default risk, especially in private credit arms.
  • Recent deals have forced these firms to chase lower-quality assets to redeploy capital from semi-liquid “wealth” funds popular with retail investors.
• Risks for Retail:
  “So … they're going to go, they have to spend money, they're going to buy crappier stuff and they're going to shove that out to the retail investor.”
  — Melissa Lee (28:02)
• Insight: When alts get packaged for retail, it’s often a sign the best days of the cycle are behind.

7. Robinhood Retail Data: Tesla Dethroned, Nvidia on Top (30:32 - 36:37)

Guest: Steve Quirk, Robinhood

• Key Data Point: For the first time in five years, Nvidia is Robinhood users’ #1 holding, overtaking Tesla.
• Retail Strategy:
  • Users acting more like portfolio managers: rotating out of big winners (Tesla) and into under-appreciated stocks.
  • Options volume remains strong, especially in short-dated contracts for tactical moves.
• Prediction Market Boom:
  • Event-based contracts, especially sports, are surging—300M traded for Sunday Night Football alone.
  • Robinhood positions these as “information markets,” not just speculative gambling.
• Quote:
  "You brought it up at the top of the segment, there's been a rotation. You're starting to see our customers rotate out of names which have appreciated and rotate into names…" (31:22)

8. BREAKING: Details on TikTok’s New Ownership & Structure (36:42 - 41:57)

Correspondent: David Faber

• Order Details: The President’s executive order declares the restructured U.S. entity “TikTok USA” meets all requirements for a qualified (non-Chinese) divestiture.
• Ownership Details:
  • Oracle, Silver Lake, MGX: ~45%
  • ByteDance (China): 19.9%
  • Existing U.S. ByteDance investors (e.g., General Atlantic, Sequoia): bulk of the remaining 35%
  • ByteDance will have one seat on a seven-member board
• Operational Model:
  • Oracle continues as cloud provider (Project Texas persists)
  • TikTok USA will license the algorithm from ByteDance, but no major anticipated user-facing changes
• Governance & Security: The structure is deemed sufficient for national security
• Quote:
  "It will represent less than 20% ownership by the Chinese entity … so … you could consider this a qualified divestiture because it will represent less than 20% ownership by the Chinese entity, namely ByteDance."
  — David Faber (39:50)

9. OpenAI & Databricks: AI Buildout Continues (42:20 - 47:14)

Guest: Ali Gotze, Databricks CEO

• Deal Announced: Databricks and OpenAI enter a $100M+ partnership to integrate OpenAI models (plus deals with Anthropic, Google Gemini) for enterprise AI agents.
• Adoption & ROI:
  • While excitement is high, real-world enterprise use remains early and ROI is hard to measure.
  • Initial productivity and automation gains are being observed in sectors like finance (MasterCard, Adidas case studies).
• AI Buildout:
  • Many more users and much heavier workloads expected, making current infrastructure spending seem justified—though some of the market is likely ahead of itself.
• Resilience:
  • Databricks is “model agnostic,” hosting OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google Gemini for redundancy and customer flexibility.
• Quote:
  "We are laser focused… on getting customers and the enterprises actually successful with the use cases. So that's, we are laser focused on that with Agent Bricks."
  — Ali Gotze (45:50)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Market AI Skepticism:
  "This is all things on the come and I think that that's what the market's having a really hard time digesting..."
  — Gene Munster (06:12)

• On TikTok Churn Risk:
  "If you have to basically install a new version of TikTok app ... that would be a massive churn event."
  — Mark Douglas (18:51)

• On Private Equity Retail Shift:
  "So ... they're going to buy crappier stuff and ... shove that out to the retail investor."
  — Melissa Lee (28:02)

• On Robinhood Retail Flows:
  "You're starting to see our customers rotate out of names which have appreciated..."
  — Steve Quirk (31:22)

• On AI Infrastructure Spend:
  "There is going to be much more usage in the future than we have today... a build up will be needed and it will be needed in all kinds of regions around the world..."
  — Ali Gotze (45:05)

In Brief: Rapid Fire Highlights (48:08 - End)

• Tech/Consulting: Accenture rebounds but guidance cautious; IBM gets a boost from quantum computing news with HSBC.
• Consumer/Credit: CarMax slides on weakening credit quality among loan customers.
• Housing/DIY Retail: TD Cowan bullish on Home Depot as lower HELOC rates may boost spending.

Timestamps: Important Segments

• 01:08 – Market overview, tech pullbacks, yields
• 02:52 – OpenAI, infrastructure spending, tech rotation
• 03:59 – Gene Munster on AI CapEx and market disbelief
• 09:42 – Intel jumps, Apple politics
• 12:26 – Government shutdown standoff
• 18:02 – TikTok sale order details, Mark Douglas on ad fallout
• 25:20 – Private equity market struggles
• 30:32 – Robinhood: Tesla dethroned, Nvidia's rise, sports betting boom
• 36:42 – David Faber on TikTok USA deal specifics
• 42:20 – Databricks CEO Ali Gotze on OpenAI deal, industry buildout
• 48:08 – Rapid Fire: Accenture/IBM, CarMax, Home Depot

Conclusion

This episode offers a comprehensive, up-to-the-minute snapshot of high-stakes maneuvering across tech, capital markets, and Washington. Listeners are equipped with rare clarity on how regulatory and competitive dramas—like TikTok’s forced divestiture, the AI spending boom, and the evolution of retail investing—are reverberating through the broader market and into individual investor choices.