The Exchange (CNBC)

Episode: Tracking Nvidia Trades, Retail Wreckage, and AI Super PAC Spending (11/17/25)
Date: November 17, 2025
Host: Dominic Chu (in for Kelly Evans)

Overview

This episode of The Exchange examines the pivotal week for markets focused on upcoming Nvidia and Walmart earnings, persistent volatility in financial plumbing, challenges facing the retail sector, the latest developments in AI-driven politics, continued crypto turbulence, and a major new partnership in enterprise AI. The episode features market commentary, analyst insights, and notable interviews, making it a comprehensive review of current business and tech trends as they impact investors and the broader economy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Outlook: Valuation Tensions and the AI Trade

[00:30–08:25]

• Dominic Chu opens by setting the stage: stocks relatively unchanged, with investors preparing for key earnings from Nvidia (AI leader) and Walmart (retail bellwether).
• Charles Bobrinskoy (Ariel Investments):
  • Warns large cap growth stocks remain "scary" due to stretched valuations.
    • "Large cap growth, I think, is scary. Trading at record highs relative to historic valuations." – Charles Bobrinskoy [01:55]
  • Points to opportunity in small and mid-cap value stocks, which are trading near historic averages (9–12x earnings).
  • Inflation concerns highlighted: deficits, trade wars, tariffs, and immigration restrictions contribute to structural inflation, making commodity- and resource-linked stocks attractive.
    • "Both parties seem to have lost interest in fighting deficits...all of those things moving in the wrong direction mean that things like commodities, like oil, those companies are cheap." – Charles Bobrinskoy [04:10]
  • Preferred picks: Mosaic (fertilizer), Schlumberger (oil services), Apache (oil & gas).

2. Plumbing the Market: Repo Volatility and Financial Sector Risks

[08:25–15:45]

• Steve Liesman (CNBC Economics Reporter):
  • Outlines recent volatility in the repo market (overnight lending secured by securities), which is crucial for market liquidity.
  • The Fed is monitoring closely; New York Fed pres. meeting with dealers to urge use of standing repo facility as a backstop.
  • Causes for volatility: decline in Fed balance sheet, Treasury rebuilding cash, strong bill issuance, bank reluctance to lend.
  • Although volatility isn't at crisis levels, officials are on alert for stress points.
    • "It's not DEFCON 1 at this point. It's just, guys, look out here. This is something that we've seen and we've marked." – Steve Liesman [14:00]
• Bobrinskoy & Liesman on banks:
  • Large cap banks (e.g., Goldman Sachs) seen as fully valued; opportunities in regional banks (trading at lower price-to-book).
  • Rate cut odds for December have dropped; there’s speculation the Fed may resume balance sheet expansion as soon as January.
• Macro View:
  • Bobrinskoy cautiously optimistic about the economy despite headwinds (tariffs, need for globalization, 2026 election incentives).

3. Retail’s Rocky Road: Bleak Outlook for Holiday Season

[18:10–26:40]

• Jihan Ma (Bernstein senior retail analyst):
  • Describes current stance as "cautious rather than outright negative," with reason for long-term optimism but a grim near-term picture.
    • Drivers of pessimism: ongoing inflation (tariff-driven), softening labor market, low-income consumer squeeze (especially due to SNAP payment delays), and weak discretionary sales.
  • "The low-income consumers are in particularly the worst shape right now on the back of the lower spending power..." – Jihan Ma [19:40]
  • Earnings Preview:
    • Best positioned: Five Below (reporting in 2.5 weeks), benefiting from company turnaround and macro tailwinds.
    • Most likely to disappoint: Target, facing continued consumer pullback.
    • Walmart: Expected to deliver in-line results, but upside seen as limited due to current valuation.
    • Home Depot & Lowe's: Muted home improvement demand, tied to macro and rate cycle.
    • Costco: More resilient due to higher-income clientele, reporting later in December.
  • Vulnerability:
    • Dollar stores and Walmart most exposed to SNAP recipient volatility; mid- and high-income retailers more insulated.
  • Keys for Turnaround:
    • Watching inflation vs. wage growth and policy/economic data for signs of improved consumer health.

4. Tech & Market Movers: Nvidia, Dell, and Google

[26:40–35:00]

• Stock Recap:
  • Nvidia and Walmart earnings are the focal points for AI and consumer sentiment.
  • Alphabet/Google hits a record high after Berkshire reveals a $4.3B stake.
  • Dell downgraded by Morgan Stanley citing margin pressure from rising memory costs; only major sell rating among analysts.
• Market Update:
  • Indices down fractionally; Dell sinking 8%, but still positive YTD.

5. Tariffs & Small Business: Real-World Impact

[42:00–43:00]

• Travel company manager shares effects of tariffs:
  • 11–19% revenue/"reservations" decline, especially on international business.
  • Direct cancellations when tariffs announced; aggressive price cutting to stay competitive.
  • Increased operating costs due to tariffs on supplies and labor.

6. Options Market and Nvidia’s Earnings Setup

[44:00–47:45]

• Chris Murphy (Susquehanna):
  • Nvidia’s options imply a ~7% move post-earnings—lower than in recent years as more analysts/traders focus on the stock and trade out inefficiencies.
    • "The move in Nvidia has actually been smaller as more eyeballs are on this print." – Chris Murphy [45:00]
  • Notable upside demand: more calls vs. puts, indicating traders positioning for a bounce post-selloff.
  • Ripple trades: investors may benefit more from related AI/semiconductor stocks if Nvidia’s earnings spark sector moves.

7. AI Meets Politics: 2026 Super PAC and Regulatory Fight

[47:45–51:30]

• Emily Wilkins (CNBC):
  • AI Super PAC “Leading the Future”—backed by A16Z, Perplexity, Ron Conway, Greg Brockman (OpenAI), and Joe Lonsdale (Palantir)—targets state candidates opposed to federal preemption in AI law.
  • First target: NY Assemblyman Alex Boris, co-sponsor of an AI safety bill.
    • "If they are scared of people who understand their business regulating their business, then they are telling on themselves." – Alex Boris [49:25]
  • Modeled on the successful crypto PAC from the 2024 cycle, expects to both endorse and oppose candidates in a bipartisan push for federal AI regulation.

8. Crypto Update: Bitcoin Death Cross and Stablecoin Surge

[51:40–55:00]

• Mackenzie Segalos (CNBC):
  • Bitcoin falls below $93,000 and triggers a bearish “death cross” signal.
    • "So, Dom, the selloff that's underway right now is setting up for a make or break moment in the crypto market." – Mackenzie Segalos [52:10]
  • Institutional selling, weak Asian demand, and leverage washouts drag prices lower.
  • Stablecoins surging as institutional/traditional buyers seek utility and less volatility; retail interest moving to AI-linked miners.
  • Debate over whether stablecoins are displacing bitcoin/ethereum, with both sides represented by major fund managers.

9. Enterprise AI Partnership: Box and AWS Deepen Alliance

[55:00–01:01:55]

• Deirdre Bosa interviews Aaron Levie (Box CEO) & Swami Sivasubramanian (VP Agentic AI, AWS):
  • Partnership:
    • Box expands integration of AWS tools—especially Amazon Bedrock models—for enterprise AI document management and automation.
    • Box will be available via AWS Marketplace, improving access for regulated sectors.
  • AI Augmentation (not pure replacement):
    • Both guests assert AI is enabling new kinds of work, boosting productivity, and unlocking insights that weren’t previously feasible.
      • "AI is going to be used mostly to augment work...allowing them to accelerate that work even further." – Aaron Levie [57:50]
    • Swami: AWS internally has realized huge productivity gains (e.g., "thousands of developer years" saved).
  • ROI Measurement:
    • ROI frequently realized through new value creation, not just labor saving—e.g., better deals, expanded features, differentiated offerings.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Charles Bobrinskoy [01:55]:
  "Large cap growth, I think, is scary. Trading at record highs relative to historic valuations."
• Steve Liesman [14:00]:
  "It's not DEFCON 1 at this point. It's just, guys, look out here. This is something that we've seen and we've marked."
• Jihan Ma [19:40]:
  "The low-income consumers are in particularly the worst shape right now on the back of the lower spending power..."
• Chris Murphy [45:00]:
  "The move in Nvidia has actually been smaller as more eyeballs are on this print."
• Alex Boris (NY Assemblyman) [49:25]:
  "If they are scared of people who understand their business regulating their business, then they are telling on themselves."
• Mackenzie Segalos [52:10]:
  "The selloff that's underway right now is setting up for a make or break moment in the crypto market."
• Aaron Levie [57:50]:
  "AI is going to be used mostly to augment work...allowing them to accelerate that work even further."
• Swami Sivasubramanian [59:00]:
  "Our agent saved something like thousands of developer years worth of work as well. Well, these are just the beginning. I happen to think this is going to be a game changer."

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Market/Valuation Overview: 00:30–08:25
• Market Plumbing/Repo Volatility: 08:25–15:45
• Retail Analysts (Holiday Season): 18:10–26:40
• Tech Market Movers: 26:40–35:00
• Options Market/Nvidia Earnings: 44:00–47:45
• AI Super PACs: 47:45–51:30
• Crypto/Bitcoin Update: 51:40–55:00
• Box & AWS AI Partnership: 55:00–01:01:55

Summary

This episode offers a rich trip through the week’s most impactful business stories. Key themes include heightened caution toward overvalued growth stocks and mega caps, optimism in neglected small and mid-cap value, market unease about liquidity and collateral, and broad skepticism toward the near-term health of retail as consumers recoil from inflation and higher rates. The "AI trade" is under the spotlight via Nvidia and via a real-world partnership (Box + AWS); meanwhile, the politics of AI regulation are rapidly professionalizing with new PACs following crypto’s blueprint. Bitcoin endures a technical and fundamental shakeout as investors explore stablecoins, AI miners, and new ways to find value. With diverse insights from top sector analysts and direct commentary from industry players, "The Exchange" delivers an indispensable toolkit for understanding the intersection of markets, technology, and policy this week.