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Sometimes AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything. You're listening to the Exchange. Here's today's show. Thank you, Scott, and welcome to the Exchange. I'm Kelly Evans. Markets around the world are shrugging off the US Strike in Venezuela over the weekend as the trade takes center stage once again. It's a record high, in fact for the Dow today you can see it there, over 49,000. While the tech train is getting a major boost from the surgeon memory names and the small caps, they're outperforming the Dow just slightly, up 1.5. The metals rally also reigniting with gold and silver jumping once again. Silver's up 7%. Look at platinum, same story. Copper's up 5% as well. And energy one of the best performing sectors. We'll get you a check on crude which is now reversed higher by nearly 2%. Keep an eye on that WTI over 58 a barrel. Now the refiners like Halliburton, Schlumberger and Valero, well, they're the ones topping the S and P with 10 to 12% gains. Valero, nearly 10%. Now the President promised American oil companies will invest billions to revitalize production in Venezuela. And the capture of leader Nicolas Maduro is where we start today. Eamon Jabers is at the White House with the very latest Contessa brewer outside of the New York City courthouse where Maduro was arraigned just last hour pleading not guilty to drug trafficking charges. Eamon, let's start with you. Hey there, Kelly. The UN Security Council went into emergency session this morning to discuss the US Military action in Venezuela over the weekend. And so we're getting some Fresh reactions from world leaders. Venezuela's UN Envoy told the body that the country's institutions are functioning normally today, that the constitutional order has been preserved there and that the state is exercising effective control over its territory now. Separately, Turkey's leader, Recep Erdogan, said that he told President Trump in a phone call that Venezuela must not be dragged into chaos and said Turkey will continue to stand for with the people of Venezuela. And finally, multiple oil Companies have told CNBC's Brian Sullivan that they have no plans to enter Venezuela. Now that's interesting because you heard the president say over the weekend that US Oil companies would be expected to go into Venezuela and spend the billions of dollars needed to reconstitute oil production capacity there. Apparently, that process has not started just yet. We'll wait and see if the White House has any communication with those oil executives in the days and weeks to come. Kelly, back over to you. I mean, what other response should we response should we expect, I should say from the White House. Maduro, as contessa will elaborate on in just a moment, did plead not guilty. I think he said something to the effect of I'm a decent or honest man. And so they, they still have to sell the American public on kind of the rationale behind all of this and give us a sense of what's to come now. Well, there's a lot of good questions around that. I mean, first of all, what's to come in Venezuela? The vice president, Rodriguez is somebody who was defiant over the weekend calling for proof of life of Nicolas Maduro in the immediate aftermath of the strike. Later through the weekend, she became a little bit more conciliatory toward the United States. She was sworn in formally as the president there. So the big open question is can the US Government sort of co opt the remnants of the Maduro regime in Venezuela and sort of pressure them to do what the US Wants even without sort of a formal takeover of the country in any legal way. That seems to be the Trump administration strategy here. And then, Kelly, the other big questions are the president was talking very aggressively about Cuba and Greenland last night on Air Force One as he came back to the White House after his two weeks in Florida. He said on Cuba, he said he thinks that country is poised to fall because it was dependent on Venezuelan oil to prop up the economy that might be gone now. And so the big question is what happens to the Cuban government in the wake of all this? And on Greenland, the president said, I'll talk to you about it more specifically in 20 days. But he said the United States does need Greenland for US national security purposes. So one of the big questions there is, does the president have any designs on the nation of Greenland? And how would the European Union and NATO react to any moves by the US There? So some big, big open questions geopolitically here at this hour, Kelly. And I can tell you traders are busy trying to game out what the odds are of, you know, action on any of those fronts, and then if so, what would be the preceding investments or, you know, moves that they could position for one way or the other? So that speculation is apace. Amen. Thanks. Amen. Javers. Nicolas Maduro appearing in court in the past hour where he pleaded not guilty to the four charges against him. Let's get more details now from Contessa Brewer. She's outside that courthouse in Manhattan with the latest. Contessa. Yeah, Kelly, and now that court appearance. The initial court appearance for Nicolas Maduro is over. And as you said, four charges against him relating to drug trafficking and weapons. He pled not guilty to all of those, declared himself an innocent man. Prosecutors say this was a scheme that netted Venezuela's president the money that helped him grab and stay in power. Maduro's wife, Celia, also appeared in court. She also pled not guilty, by the way. She had bruises on her face. Her attorney says she also has significant rib injuries that require medical treatment, injuries he says she got while being captured in Caracas. There was also some drama in the courtroom when a man in a suit rose towards the end of the hearing, pointed a finger at Maduro and yelled in Spanish, you will pay. Well, then Maduro replied in Spanish that he's a man of God, the president of Venezuela. He considers himself kidnapped and a prisoner of war. When he had brought that up during the hearing, the judge had set aside those concerns and said there was time later for that. Outside the courthouse, there are similar confrontations still unfolding between demonstrators who support President Trump and the military action that he takes in Venezuela. This is a live shot right now from my photographer, Andy Tenke, who's taking this shot just a few feet away from where I'm standing. And then those who disagree and say the US has no business intervening in Venezuelan affairs, they have called on the US to release Maduro. Judge Alvin Hellerstein did not handle questions of bail today, but he did authorize a visit from Venezuela's consulate, and he authorized medical attention for both Nicolas and Celia Maduro. Barry Pollack, who represented Julian assange in the WikiLeaks affair, is representing President Maduro and former Department of Justice attorney Mark Donnelly is representing Mrs. Maduro. The next court hearing has been scheduled now, Kelly, for March 17th. Again, there was some disappointment by the crowd out here because they were hoping that the Maduro's would be brought outside of this front door and to the waiting crowd. But no, indeed, that's not the case. The way he came in was through the back, so the crowd never had a chance to see him. But you mentioned the protesters and it sounds like there's so the crowd waiting him. Is that because they were waiting to cheer this on or waiting to kind of show their pleasure with the way that things have unfolded? Or maybe, we don't know, maybe just waiting to see the spectacle unfold. They're both. No, no. Yeah, there are both. There are people who are cheering on the fact that he's been taken out of the President's palace in Venezuela. They don't think he was the rightful president. And by the way, that's something that we've heard President Trump say. We heard President Biden say they did not recognize Maduro as the legitimate leader of Venezuela. And then on the other hand, there are people who just simply. It sounds like it's not so much about Maduro, but rather about the intervention in Venezuela. They called themselves anti war demonstrators. Of course, no war has been, has been declared here, but those military operations are a problem for them. The police have had to separate these different crowds of protesters because there were some clashes. Understood. All right, Contessa, for now, appreciate it. Thank you very much. Contessa Brewer continuing to follow that story over there. The markets are higher today as investors put aside some of these geopolitical tensions and concerns as having little risk to what's been the driving force of this market rally, which remains AI crude. Prices are also rising now due to the uncertainty and potential disruption to Venezuela's oil supply. Let's discuss all of it with energy aspects. Amrita Sen and Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management's Katarina Simonetti. Welcome to both of you. Emery, I'm actually going to start with you if I may, in this kind of afternoon development where crude is now moving to the upside. What do you make of that? Well, Kelly, thank you for kind of flagging this to our clients over the last few few days, really that initially I think a lot of the traders were very skeptical. They've been asking us about how much more oil could come to the market because, you know, you could, you know, unleash so much of Venezuelan oil. But we have been flagging that the US blockade remains in place, sanctions remain in place. Venezuelan exports had already halved and there's more downside risk in the near term. So in the near term there isn't additional oil in the market. And the market was also extremely short. Our quantity have been flagging that. The amount of shorts in Brent are at a record high in 10 years. The amount of longs in WTI are are also at a record low. So because the market was so short, I think that's why you're seeing the kind of rally. I don't think the rally is going to persist much because there is oversupply or fears of oversupply in the market. But the right here, right now, the initial fears that there's going to be a lot of oil from Venezuela, I think that's dissipated. So there were so many narratives initially, Amrita, everything from, you know, pity the Canadian oil producers to you know, this is going to be an era of even more abundant and plentiful oil that the US control. So what do we do with all of those narratives now? Are they simply delayed or do you think they're, they're called into question here? No, look, we've been saying right from the start that going into Venezuela and redeveloping it is going to be extremely challenging. Our analysis shows just to increase production by half a million barrels per day would take at least two years and $10 billion. Anything where you talk about, you know, going back to the heydays of venezuelan production of two and a half million barrels per day, you're talking about $100 billion, if not higher and anywhere up to seven to 10 years. Right. So nothing of this is simple. Oil companies do not want to go back in. And kind of previously you were talking about that as well. There's enormous amounts of asset debt. People need to understand how that debt is going to get repaid. The companies don't even know if new contracts are going to be upheld by a new Venezuelan government. Gas processing is a huge concern. Without gas processing, you can't even increase oil production. The damage done to Venezuelan upstream and infrastructure is so huge. I cannot stress that enough. So this is not an overnight success story by any stretch, by the way. We don't even have any guarantees that there will be any change whatsoever. Right. So I think people would just premature in some of that exuberance. Sure. Amrita, what do you make of this narrative which is now being called into question around how many reserves Venezuela actually has? You know, there's people who say it was self declared that this Was the, you know, previous regimes, Chavez and so forth, just basically trying to boast about what they had. And there was no international authority that could come in and actually verify those reserves. What do you think we know about the reserves of Venezuela that actually exist or not? Or not. I think reserves is always a tricky one because for lots of countries, right, they claim very, very big reserves numbers which sometimes can't be tested internationally. I think Venezuela is definitely a case in point. The reality is that their production, which is what matters for the market, has been about a million barrels per day last year at its peak, has gone down a couple of hundred thousand barrels per day. Exports have now gone down below 500,000 barrels per day. And that is what is important. Can Venezuela actually produce 2, 3, 4 million barrels per day over a 10, 20 year period? Yes, maybe they do have the reserves. It may not be 300 billion barrels, but they do have ample reserves. The question is the infrastructure and the amount of money that's going to be required, which is just not going to be forthcoming. All right, so Katerina, jump in here. And how are you talking to everyone about the events today as we go back and forth on just exactly how many barrels from Venezuela may or may not come online? I mean, meanwhile, kind of lost in all of this is news overnight from, I think it was the Korea Daily about, you know, memory pricing going up 60 to 70% and all the, you know, the memory names here are flying. The air trade remains once again a big driver of the markets. And when you look at the price action today is, does it have anything to do with the events of Venezuela aside from the areas, you know, primarily affected? Well, Kelly, I agree completely that the excitement about the potential revenue that this situation in Venezuela is going to bring to US Oil companies is premature. The oil market is oversupplied in time. The, if the, the production of Venezuelan oil is going to come back online, this will create additional supply and bring the oil prices down. But the immediate reaction is definitely something that we see as warranted and especially as the investors are looking at the market for 2026, we remind them that this is the evidence that geopolitical risk is live and well. And we now not only see the heightened geopolitical risk in Europe and the Middle east, we now see it in Latin America. And this is where the portfolio construction and really paying attention to market trends and making sure that we have companies and sectors that stand to position well and benefit from the earnings growth is more important. Yeah, no, and Chevron is leading the dow. It's up 6% today. But as you know, points wise, you know in a 700 point day that's not a tremendous boost. Goldman is up four and a half percent, JP Morgan is up three and a half percent. Caterpillar is up three and a half percent, Disney's up three. I mean what does that tell you? Well, this tells us that we have accommodating Fed and we're expecting three rate cuts in 26 which of course is going to be very positive for a number of sectors. But specifically for the financial sector, we have not seen rates at these levels for years. And while we're not expecting rates to go down to zero, this is certainly is going to be sector the environment that be positive for the economy in general. But specifically for financial companies that thrive in terms of lending. We've seen the increase in ipo in IPO and activity and we absolutely think that financial sectors is well positioned for the year to come. Now understood then quickly on the metals. We'll go into this a little bit more later on. Katerina. But that trade is red hot today. Why? Well, the investors see specifically gold as a safe haven asset. So any time there is this uncertainty in the world they wake up and they read about Venezuela and once again there is, you know, this bit of a fear or what's to come with this market. Even though our outlook for, for 2026 is extremely positive. We're expecting 7,800 on S& P which is another year of double digit returns. There is that fear of the additional market volatility. And so naturally gold is the investment of choice in this environment. Yeah, some think gold is dragging everything higher or you know, you look at the components of the trade and some of those are involved. Amrita, we'll give you the last word then. What would be your kind of your, your parting advice? If I could put it that way to investors? Kind of given everything we've seen now with the market reaction in the past several hours. Look, I think the market is bracing for an oversupplied year. 2026 is meant to be one kind of one of the biggest surpluses we've seen. But we just need to be cautious. Right? Venezuela is of course a small part of that. Like there's not a lot, not that much production being lost. I just want to keep reminding people of what's going on with Russia, with Kazakhstan. We have and we are losing a fair amount of production. So it's very easy to get caught in the kind of euphoria of oversupply. But Then when you kind of go through the numbers, yes, we might be building, but the bills might come in quite a bit less than people expected. And so being, you know, you could get caught wrong footed if the market is very, very short. And I think that's exactly why we've seen the rally that we have seen today. Understood. But you're saying that people are expecting for, in general for there to be quite a lot of oil in the market and 2026. Why is that? Absolutely, yeah. And look, yeah, I mean our balances show that as well. Right. OPEC has unwound last year. Non OPEC supply is growing. You've got Brazil, Guyana as well. So that oversupply that started kind of very late last year is going to continue a little bit this year. And then of course with lower prices, you get a supply reaction. And 27 onwards. We do think the oil market's constructive, but this year is an oversupplied year. It's just the question is how much is that over? So supply. Right. Some people have been calling for 4 million barrels per day. Ours is less at 2, but 2 is still a very big number. Two, two and a half million barrels per day. But then if you lose Russian barrels, if you lose Kazakhstan, maybe some Venezuela maybe that oversupply is half of what people are expecting. And that in itself can be an upside or bullish surprise for crude. All right, but even I take what your point might, you know, upside, but with maybe a cap, you know, kind of trading almost utility, like with. Oh yeah, for sure. Yeah. Of outcomes. All right, ladies, thank you. Absolutely appreciated today. Katerina Simonetti with Morgan Stanley and Amrita Sen, founder and Director of research at Energy Aspects. Coming up, how will Congress react to the capture of President Maduro and what impact will it have on their agenda for 2026? Remember, midterm years can often be bad or at least have bad moments for the markets. We'll look at the wide ranging implications ahead. But first, tech is shaping up to lead the market once again this year. Venture capitalist Sam Lesson joins us with his top themes and predictions for Tech in 26. We're back with much more after this. This is the exchange on cnbc. Mazda. Once you discover the Mazda CX5 Mazda, it doesn't take long to get it. With standard all wheel drive, a premium interior and advanced safety features, it's an SUV that gives you more at every turn. It will have you saying Mazda. The Mazda CX5, it's made to move you. Every Mazda SUV offers you an elevated driving experience. And refined performance. Discover it at your local Mazda dealer today. Everyone deserves to be connected. That's why T Mobile and US Cellular are joining forces. Switch to T Mobile and save up to 20% versus Verizon by getting built in benefits they leave out. Check the math@t mobile.com switch and now T mobile is in US cellular stores. Savings versus Comparable Verizon plans plus the cost of optional benefits, plan features and taxes and fees vary. Savings with three plus lines include third line free via monthly bill credits. Credit stop if you cancel any lines. Qualifying credit required. Introducing Fidelity Trader plus, the next generation of advanced trading from Fidelity. Customize your tools and charts and access them seamlessly across desktop, web and mobile for faster trades anywhere you go, try the all new Fidelity Trader Plus. Learn more about our most powerful trading platform yet@fidelity.com TraderPlus investing involves risk, including risk of loss Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC Member NYSE SIPC the Consumer Electronics show is kicking off in Vegas today, and it could actually be one of the more exciting ones. In years, AI is expected to show up in nearly everything from robotics to vehicles to wearables, even health care. Whether you think we're in an AI bubble already or not, its proliferation this year can't be understated. Here now with the themes he's watching is Sam Lesson, general partner at Slow Ventures. I don't mean to make you sound like a gadget guy, Sam, which feels like often the the CBS kind of talking points from 10 years ago, but in a way people should understand what's happening and connect the dots back to the market action today. When people say what? Why is the Dow up so much? Why? Does this have anything to do with Venice? No, the trade in the data points, whether it's from memory, from compute, that this is going to require. I mean, we're starting off this year already with articles about how much more we need, how big the hunger, the thirst really is. We'll see. It'll be an interesting year. I mean, last year was no question a narrative heavy year, right? People are selling an incredible dream and the dream of AI is so big, right? And so asymmetric, people are willing to invest almost infinitely to potentially try it. So far this year we'll see whether the dream continues to grow and get bigger and propel a lot of the things we're seeing, whether data points start picking, pointing to weakness in the dream like this will be a really interesting year in terms of how it plays out. It's kind of one of those things where we could be massively up. The dream can stay intact or not come down to a big year. I mean you look at companies very early so stage there is no way this can be over if we haven't even really seen these startups coming to market yet. Maybe. I mean the reality is, is again I think on one hand you know, the idea that with from an AI perspective that you're a startup and not leveraging AI tools and what you're building is crazy at this point. It's kind of an obvious, it's kind of the equivalent if someone says I'm not using AI, saying I'm not using the Internet or cloud. Now the question of how do you make money on it but and where's the leverage and how did the dynamics changes. These are all like real questions to be answered this year and I think no one really knows is the upshot. We know it's disruptive, we don't know how deeply disruptive and we don't know where the money's made. Right. No, obviously, I mean that's kind of what makes it fun on some level is you think there's still money to be made instead of just saying no, it's all over. Maybe. I mean that's the question is, you know, right now we're in this crazy place where you know, Washington has a debt problem and these GDP number go up. You know, Wall street obviously has an incentive, you know, with all sorts of new financings and ways to get involved in kind of the trade tech has its kind of like long term story. So everyone's aligned in wanting the narrative to be big and important and real and you see things that consumers experience and get really excited about. This is all good. This all drives the trade forward. People are clearly going to keep going. But we're also at a place where people have now been using versions of this in the enterprise for the last 12 months. You start to connect the dots of does this transition from experimental spend to core spend and when it does, who actually profits? Where is the actual margin in the overall shift that's going on here? It's possible there's a lot for startups, it's possible there isn't and there's all sorts of tack on effects about obviously job creation, etc. That we all have to figure out. No, and, but I think what you said is we'll see. I mean it would seem still natural there's going to be kind of a raft of startups that monetize this in various ways. But it remains an open question if at all just as you've argued, a cruise to the big ones. Speaking of which, let's talk about Metta, which, you know, had an okay year last year. Disappointing to many. I know you've often said the best thing they can do with AI is just leverage the ad load. And the algorithm on Instagram seems much better, but now the infighting is spilling out into the public with kind of the researchers at odds with each other and Mark Zuckerberg having to try to deal with this. How. How existential is this for them? And does it represent an entry point for people who are looking for, you know, a way to continue to play this theme that still has road in front of it? Look, in the end of the day, like, there's a few major stories out there of the big behemoth and the impact of AI. And, you know, what's clear with matter is that they have very little liability in their core business around AI, but an enormous amount of upside in terms of what you can do with AI in very obvious ways to, like, improve advertising, improve their economy, etc. So that's all clear. You know, Mark is a very aggressive guy who wants to win big, and, you know, who knows the reality of some of these stories internally in terms of what's infighting or what's not. People love a good story, but the upshot is, is like, you know, I think he and everyone else is playing for such lofty, huge outcomes right now. You know, whether it's open air or Google or that what you're seeing is no one knows how big it can get. And the dream is so big that there's obviously a lot of stress around that you don't want to miss the bear. Yeah. Any final thing you're going to be watching for or that you think the market's missing right now, I mean, we're going to hear from Jensen Huang later today, and I guess we're still in the stage at which, you know, kind of betting on the infrastructure play remains the main story. And I think maybe fund tools, you know, might still be down the road. Look, the end of the day, enterprises are spending experimentally. Tech companies, the big platforms are spending actually experimentally, but enormous amounts of dollars. You can just buy the people putting the components in those are commoditizing like, this is going to be the year. The tpu, there's a lot of other things going on right now. So the Nvidia's lock on this, I think, is not as. As clear going forward as it was historically. They've kind of had their moment of total dominance. And then with the big the big questions, what happened to the platforms? Can OpenAI make money? Can they stay ahead on models? Can Google do what they seem like they can do right, which is just deploy it everywhere? Can better get back in the core game for foundation models. These are huge stories that are all going to play out in the next 12 months. Yeah. Very well said, Sam. Thanks for your time. Appreciate it. Thank you, Sam. Lesson Slow Ventures Coming up US Stocks, believe it or not, underperformed the rest of the world last year, even with an 18% gain. Will International remain the place to be for 26? Or will these rising tensions lead more investors to stay home? We'll look at where the opportunities are ahead. Everyone deserves to be connected. That's why T Mobile and US Cellular are joining forces. Switch to T Mobile and save up to 2020% versus Verizon by getting built in benefits they leave out. Check the math@t mobile.com switch and now T mobile is in US cellular stores. Savings versus Comparable Verizon plans plus the cost of optional benefits plan features and taxes and fees vary. Savings with three plus lines include third line free via monthly bill credits. Credit stop if you cancel any lines. Qualifying credit required. Hey Fidelity. How can I remember to invest every month? With the Fidelity app, you can choose a schedule and set up recurring investment in stocks and ETFs. Huh. That sounds easier than I thought. You got this? Yeah, I do. Now where did I put my keys? You will find them where you left them. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services llc Member nyse SIPC Ugh. Could this vintage store be any cuter? Right. And the best part? They accept Discover. Accept Discovery in a little place like this? I don't think so, Jennifer. Oh yeah. Huh. Discover's accepted where I like to shop. Come on, baby, get with the times. Right. So we shouldn't get the parachute pants. These are making a comeback, I think. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide, based on the February 2025 Nielsen report. The oil names are leading the market today. But there's another surprising outperformer, which is Coinbase, up 7% after a bullish call over at Goldman. And with crypto largely getting some of its mojo back today after closing down 9% last year, Mackenzie Sagalos has more on these moves. Matt, good to see you. What are you hearing? So, Kelly, crypto pegged equities are moving higher as bitcoin pushes past $94,000 with traders betting the shake up in Venezuela could actually be good news for risk assets. Now, the bull case is macro. If President Trump makes good on his promise to ramp Venezuelan oil production, that means more supply, cheaper energy and less inflation pressure. And that is a green light for assets like crypto that tend to do better when financial conditions loosen. It's a complete reversal from last summer's Iran strikes, when crude supply fears hit risk appetite and sent bitcoin lower. But there's a second catalyst getting attention as well. Reports suggest Venezuela may have quietly amassed a bitcoin reserve worth tens of billions of dollars. None of that is confirmed, but if the US seizes those coins and adds them to its own strategic reserve, you're looking at potentially a substantial supply of BTC getting locked up for years. That is the kind of narrative that crypto traders love to move on. And technicals are also helping here. Bitcoin is back above its 50 day moving average for the first time since that major October washout. That move forced Shorts to cover into the rally. The options market tell the same story. Derivatives exchange Deribit shows the $100,000 call is now the most popular bet on the board. It reminds me of what Tom Lee said when he came on just before the end of the year, you know, October 10th, everyone talks about that date. He said he thinks we need like a six to eight week shakeout for the market to find its legs again. So this is actually a big test, you know, will all of these events and speculation items that you mentioned help it find its stride again or not? Yeah, we started to see this comeback on Friday. So the first trading day of the new year, half a billion dollars in net inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs. So a lot of the tax loss harvesting that was being done into December 31st, first was finally done. People are drawing a line under that. And so you're seeing names like Strategy and I mean Tom Lee is behind Bit Mine Immersion, which is an ether proxy trade coming up today in the markets because some of these long term holders of the coins are sticking to that premise. I will say though, in 10 days from now we have a decision from MSCI about whether they are going to count companies like Strategy and Bit Mine Immersion as investment funds, which would disqualify them from the index. That is a major potential, potential headwind coming up from the S&P5 or from their version of the. From the indexes and others could follow because they're a trendsetter. Yeah, no, that's for sure. Mackenzie, thanks. Appreciate it. Mackenzie Sagalos over to Christina Parts and Evolis now for the CNBC news update. Christina. Hi, Kelly. Well, Senator Mark Kelly today said today he would not be intimidated by or after Defense Secretary Pete Hedge Seth began proceedings to demote him and reduce his military pension. Hedges blasted the Democratic senator for quote, sedatious remarks he made in a video with five other lawmakers calling on troops to resist illegal orders. Senator Kelly, who has 30 days to respond, pledged to fight the move. New federal guidelines will expand the options for cervical cancer screenings to include an at home test as an alternative to the traditional pap smear. According to the new recommendations, women between the ages of of 30 and 65 who are considered to have an average risk of cervical cancer can opt for the self administered test. It will be covered by private insurance beginning January 2027. And Denmark's prime minister said today she thinks President Trump is serious about trying to take over Greenland. Her comments came after Trump said in an interview with the Atlantic the United States needs the autonomous territory for defense. The Danish PM says both Denmark and Green have been clear that the territory does not want to be part of the United States. All right, Christina, thank you very much. Coming up, Venezuelan President Maduro making his first court appearance since his capture early Saturday morning, pleading not guilty to charges of drug trafficking. How it's all playing out on Capitol Hill next. And as we head to break, check out Tesla on track to snap a seven day losing streak which was its longest in 18 months. Shares down 10% before today's 4% top. We'll have more of today's big movers on the other side of this break. Welcome back. We've got a big and broad rally by the way, to kick off the first week of 2026. Dow's up 800 points pretty much. And you can see the small caps are outpacing even that. The S and P and Nasdaq are up 3/4 of 1%. The Dow is hitting an all time high. Also get out the Dow 50,000 hats 49, 179. We are less than 1,000 points away from that unbelievable milestone. Meantime, the commodities are also in rally mode with silver the big gainer once again. It's up 7%. It's 76 today. Gold around 4450. Copper up 5%. And the financials huge contributors here especially to the Dow's move today mentioned the likes of JPM and Goldman up 5%. These names as well, up 2 to 3. The financial index there. Turn now to Washington because my Next guest believes Maduro's capture has a greater political impact than a market one. In the short term, he said, it might make US pressure tactics toward other adversaries more effective. Tobin Marcus is head of US Polity and Politics at Wolf Research. In other words, Tobin, tell me how to trade it. Welcome. Thanks, Kelly. Good to be here. So, you know, look at the broad macro level, I don't think that there's that much of a play here. You know, markets generally like to look through geopolitical risks. Trump very clearly positioned the operation in Venezuela over the weekend as being akin to past surgical strikes on, on Solemani, on Al Baghdadi, the strikes on Iranian nuclear assets last year, one off. Not something that's going to sort of create a lasting follow through in terms of kinetic action. But, you know, the unsettled geopolitical landscape certainly is good for defense stocks. The oil stocks are responding as you'd expect today, but clearly it's going to be a long process to rebuild the oil output from Venezuela with the level of degradation of their infrastructure we've seen over the years. You mentioned the defense names. I just want to highlight, I mean, almost all of them are at all time highs today and doing well. So I guess what I'm trying to envision. Are you saying the world is going to see more or less need for defense? Is this because countries are going to be in this race to make sure that something like this can't happen to them, or is it now that we become, you know, formidable enough that the world becomes in some ways a less active place because the talking can do more than the fighting? I'm just curious what your kind of argument is there. Yeah, I think that any country that has any level of worry about U.S. intervention, and certainly that includes traditional adversaries. You know, Trump has mentioned Cuba, he's mentioned Colombia, but also, you know, a few moments ago you were talking about the Greenland saga. You know, Denmark find themselves in a position of some level of precarity. So I think there's going to be a, an interest in a lot of different power centers across the world and trying to build more of their own independent defense capabilities rather than just relying on the US and that should be a long term secular positive. And as they do. So you think that's by definition good for US Defense names? Yeah, US Defense names. I think it's probably good for, for European defense names. Also. I think there's going to be plenty of demand for, for defense equipment. Equipment, right. Where else, Tobin? I mean, you could have people buying or selling volatility, for instance, trying to figure out does this mean we could see more unexpected events that cause turbulence, or is there not even a line to draw? If you were to wake up today and look at the markets, you certainly would have no idea, other than a few energy names, that anything geopolitically had happened, right? Yeah. I think outside of the specific sectors where you can tell a concrete story about the implications here, I don't necessarily think that there's a big overall macro play. I don't think this means that the year overall is going to be dominated by volatility. I think certainly in terms of what's coming out of Washington, I would guess that this is a year where D.C. looms less large than it did last year with the tariff saga. That, of course, works out markets throughout 2025 to be plenty of noise, but I would not necessarily go long volatility based on this. That said, we do have the midterms, and we do have a Congress who feels a little stung, I think, at their lack of involvement with what's been taking place. So anything you'd say in terms of what to watch there? Yeah, Congress is bidding. It been getting less and less relevant in foreign policy for decades. We will see some protestations from Democrats. The reception from Republicans has been very positive. Think both praising the acumen of US Special operators in terms of actually executing the operation tech tactically, but also sort of praising Trump's resolve in doing it in the first place. So I don't think Congress is going to sort of marshal across party lines to push back on presidential power here at all in terms of the broader, you know, kind of affordability concerns that are dominating the year. You know, I think it's going to be a challenge for Congress to take action on a party line basis. There's been lots of talk about whether there will be another reconciliation bill, you know, passing stimulus and so forth. I think that's going to be. That's going to be tough. So, you know, a lot of the action this year as it was last year, is going to come out of the White House. It's going to be all about tax refund season, I think. Tobin, thanks very much. Appreciate it. Tobin Marcus. With Wolf Research still to come, we'll take a quick break. And then Wall street is weighing in on the implications for defense stocks, with some saying a form of US Spending would likely be needed to support Venezuela going forward. Others feel differently. For more on that story and the stocks that could benefit, just scan that QR code or head to cnbc.com propick and we'll hear exclusively from the CFO of L3Harris later today on Overtime at 4pm Eastern to talk geopolitics and defense spending and international markets outperformed last year, but will that continue as these tensions flare? That's next. We're also watching shares of Novo Nordisk up 4% today as its GLP1 pill for weight loss, the first of its kind, hits shelves. Novo up nearly 14% since the FDA approved the treatment just two weeks ago. More right after this. It's energy and AI in today's trade with the memory stocks leading the way here at home and and driving nice gains overseas. Korea's Cosby surging three plus percent. And the Cosby along with Japan's Nikkei, the UK Footsie and the German Dax all handily outperforming the S and P in 2025amid a weaker dollar. Should we expect that to last this year especially with everything going on now? Joining me to discuss is Tim Seymour. He's the founder of Seymour Asset Management and a CNBC contributor. Korea 75% last year Tim, welcome. I'm just kind of put this all in context. Was it a one off or is this part of a larger theme you think has legs? Well, I think a lot of the Korea trade if you look at the Cosby and investors can own it here by owning the EW Y which is an ETF, it's 25% Samsung, it's 18% Hynix. I think this trade continues. I think the dollar dynamics continue to be weaker and therefore I think a lot of the Asian currencies which didn't outperform the dollar as much as others, that they may take their cue from the rest of the world in 26. Whether or not the situation in Venezuela is a one off or there's more to come or it causes some kind of reaction in China, does that affect the way that you'd be placing your bets here? You know, as somebody that's long China tech in ideal my TF we have overweight positions probably at least relative to Acqui Ex US and Alibaba Tencent. I'm a little concerned on what this really means outside the headlines and I think this if anything probably means we are more entrenched on the rare earths dynamic and what's going on in South America. I think China is still incredibly interesting and Chinese tech companies are interesting because China is not beating up their own tech companies anymore. So I think there's a real opportunity there. I do Think that global markets overall, it's not just last year's trade. I think people are waking up and understanding they're probably underweight. International they have been. And I think even on a market cap weight basis there's great opportunities for some of those same trades in a tech that we're working here. Even today you have companies like an XPI or ASML getting upgrades. You know, the hardware part, the memory part of today's trade is certainly clear to be global. It's interesting you say that. We're about to talk in just a moment about some of the IPOs and the wave of activity we're seeing in China. But you think that's a theme that, you know, in some ways we're, we're talking about this arms race, one country versus the other. But you think American investors should just participate in it? I think they should. I think again for investing globally, not as it. Not only is it just a dynamic of being underweight, I think Fed Dynamics are fed, if anything is probably cutting a bit. The rest of the global central banks have probably completed that cycle. Global growth is better than it has been in a long time. Earnings revisions higher for global companies. They traded a discount, they always have. But I think it's a very interesting time. Would you do anything in Latin America either to try to get ahead of, you know, maybe better growth prospects or the opposite and retrench or just kind of. Is that an area to stay away from for now? Well, the industrial and precious metals trade is very much a Latin America trade. I think copper, especially southern copper in Peru, ech, you can own Chile, Antofagasto. I mean these are, these are trades also Global, global gold trade is very much a Latin American trade. We have a big election in Brazil coming up. Is it, is it going to be a case where I think some of the socialist tendencies of Brazil are also things that are under some pressure? I think Latin America is pretty interesting and I think Brazil is going to outperform. All right, so then finally you think that international markets are going to have another year where they do even better than the US ones, I imagine. And because you see weak dollar, strong commodities. 2026 sounds like part two of 2025 then. And investors, you think, should not fear that they've already missed the big moves. They should be happy that they're probably underweight for four, eight to ten years of underperformance. I've been investing globally since the late 90s and we've had different periods. I think these are long tail trades. I think these are mean reversion trades. So that's just kind of the technical argument. So no, you haven't missed it. It's a valuation story. It's a give back story. It's an earnings growth story story. It's a weaker dollar story. It's that these are global companies that are also involved in the same trades that are working here. And that also means also moneycenter banks, European money center banks or utilities or you know, some of the dynamics, the industrial, the deficit spending to build up arms and defense. These are global themes. And the same things are happening in other countries. And yeah, I think it's going to continue. And if global growth is, is kind of in line or a little better than people expect, I think they're going to outperform that much more. Yeah. And you know, I don't have it in front of me, but I saw something the other day that said, you know, European profits were up like 1% last year and the markets were up 30%. Right. And someone saying, you know, explain this to me and what would you say? I'd say they are, first of all, deregulation, arguably off of. It's all about the relative change. I think deregulation is a bigger theme in Europe right now than it is here. I also think that EPS growth targets are being upgraded and will continue to outperform. And I think people are worried about valuations here. So that's not a reason to go buy Europe or Asia. But that's support for a trade where I think some of the same EPS revisions, what do we expect? And we're all strategists saying for the US I think they're calling for anywhere from 15 to 23%. Some of those same themes behind fintech and AI and efficiencies are working for global companies as much as they're working here. I mean it's. Those are the same trades that are working in terms of operational efficiency. Yeah. And I think it's not one off. It's a fascinating story. It's, you know, it's a nice story. It's a great. Hope you're right for the new year. I won't ask you about New York City. No, I don't think it's a deregulate. Yeah, I'm not moving, but anyway, no comment. Tim, thanks very much. Thank you, Kelly. Tim Seymour. Coming up, Hong Kong IPOs did raise $37 billion last year, tripling the prior year. And Chinese AI startup Mini Max is going public this Friday. It's just the latest in A slew of new listings. We'll talk about what it means for the global arms race next. And as we had to break, take a look at shares of Versant, the company making its debut on the Nasdaq today after spinning off from Comcast Versant, of course, the parent company of CNBC and a number of other networks like Ms. Now USA, Sci Fi, the Gulf Channel shares are down 12% or so to right around $40 dollars. The Dow succession highs by the way, up more than 800 points as this rally picks up momentum. We're back right after this. Air names are reviving China's IPO market. As we were just discussing, the model maker Mini Max is one of the Hong Kong offerings reportedly set to price at the top of its range tomorrow. Let's get Deirdre Bosa with more details in tech check. Hi Deirdre. Hey Kelly. So Mini Max, it follows a string of blockbuster AI debuts in China. There was more Threads coined China's answer to Nvidia listed in early December, up 500% in its debut. And then another chip maker, Meta X just recently surging nearly 700%. You had Byron jumping 80%. Both of those are chip makers. Now. Mini Max is expected this week and GPU AI, that's another model builder in the next few few weeks. Which means that increasingly China's AI boom, it's showing up in public markets, forcing price discovery, real time feedback on how much risk investors are actually willing to underwrite. Now part of that is capital. China's late stage pool is smaller and so IPOs are one of the few ways to raise real money. But in the US it's the opposite. The most important companies, they can still tap deep private capital. So the core of the air race, that's model builders and it remains locked up and privately priced. And that means less visibility, more guesswork and less access for ordinary investors. Take OpenAI. It's now one of the most valuable companies on the planet by private valuation. But investors, they're left trading around it. They have to guess how much of OpenAI's value is durable or already priced in or circulating between the same few balance sheets. Chinese investors, meanwhile, they now have a pure play AI trade that includes a new generation of chip makers and and the model builders themselves, like Mini Max, that is coming through perhaps in performance. Kelly, the Hang Seng look at this. Outperformed the NASDAQ last year by nearly 10 percentage points. We know how important the AI trade is to any market and it's really the US and China that'll be neck and neck this year and you're seeing more companies go public over there. So it's kind of two things. Number one, obviously just the rise of AI and Chinese have a lot of innovation, a lot of startups and they're taking advantage of that. But number two, as Seymour was telling us last segment, is the Chinese at the authorities basically allowing that. I don't know if we say encouraging, but certainly allowing this to happen and going from putting a boot on the neck of the tech firms, it sounds like, to kind of allowing their proliferation, perhaps with a cautious eye, kind of like a parent cautiously watching. But would you just. Is that shift real? I mean, that's too soft. Allowing, Encouraging, I would say propping up, creating artificial demand. It's much, much more than just encouraging. Absolutely. I mean, you see these chip makers and more threads that is coined in video or China's answer to Nvidia. A lot of that demand is being sort of forced and routed through Chinese companies because Beijing says that they have to use domestic chip makers. You see that playing out as well for Nvidia. Right. Chinese government wants to say which companies are able to actually access those advanced chips. The H200 GPUs. Yeah. Companies want them, but Beijing is sort of encouraging them and saying you've got to use domestic homegrown chips. And I mean that's tough, but it also actually really accelerates that push and we've seen a lot of progress. They need something other than buying empty condos to make a buck. Maybe this is the answer. Deirdre, thanks very much. The place of ghost towns. Yes, Deirdre Bosa. That's it for the Exchange. I will go join Brian Sullivan for a very busy, jam packed power lunch right after this quick break. You've been listening to the Exchange. Make sure you're subscribed to get each episode every day, same time, same place. Mazda. Once you discover the Mazda CX5 Mazda, it doesn't take long to get it. 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