Podcast Summary: CNBC’s The Exchange

Episode: “Warnamount” vs. “Netflix Bros.”, Ford’s EV JV, and Amazon’s Losing Streak
Date: February 17, 2026
Host: Brian Sullivan (in for Kelly)
Main Theme:
A fast-paced newsroom round-up on major business and market headlines of the day, with in-depth segments on the software sell-off and AI disruption fears, ongoing Hollywood merger drama between Warner Bros. Discovery, Netflix, Paramount, and Skydance, Ford’s potential EV joint venture with a Chinese partner, and Amazon’s historic losing streak.

Stock Market & Software Sell-Off: The AI Disruption

• Market Update:
  • Stocks attempted a rally but are down midday; NASDAQ had been off more than 1%.
  • Industrials, real estate, and utilities showed relative strength, while commodities such as oil, gold, and especially silver (−6%) fell.
  • The Chinese New Year market closures are being blamed for some of the volatility.

The Software Meltdown – Is the Panic Overdone?

Guest: Greg Moskowitz, Senior Enterprise Software Analyst, Mizuho
[02:34–16:02]

• Magnitude of Sell-off:
  • "The multiple retrenchment, the multiple compression has just been stunning."
    IGV (software ETF) – down nearly 30% in six weeks; Cybersecurity (HACK) – down 12%; Cloud ETF – down 20%.
  • Multiples (P/E, P/S): Down 30% YTD, >50% since Feb 2025 (the start of the “AI disruption trade”).
  • Earnings 2026 estimates “flat to slightly up”—this is “purely a valuation driven sell-off due to fear by AI.”
• Is AI Cannibalizing Software?
  • “At this point we have not been hearing of a reduction in seats across companies ... nothing that has bubbled up to the point where [it is] a headwind on growth today.” (Moskowitz, 05:32)
  • Over time, AI is expected to create “incremental pressure” on SaaS's per-seat, subscription model, but the magnitude/timing is unclear.
  • “We think selectivity is very important. You want to look for business models with resiliency and ones that have earnings power.” (Moskowitz, 07:12)
  • Example: Atlassian is down 74% from its high, trading at 9× next year’s free cash flow, “a stunning disconnect versus the fundamentals.”
• Wall Street’s Fear:
  • Despite panic, "not one [company] has said that AI is negatively impacting their subscriber base" (Brian, 11:48), but markets are making a “bet” that it will.
  • “Maybe the market is getting it wrong and is grossly oversimplifying.” (Moskowitz, 14:11)

AI Model Update Impacting Tech Valuations

Guest: Kate Rooney, CNBC Tech Reporter
[16:20–19:25]

• Anthropic Model Update:
  • Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4.6 can now operate software like a person: clicking, navigating systems without APIs, coding, etc.
  • Even “microscopic updates” to AI models cause “billions of dollars” to be wiped from tech multiples because of investor fear.
  • “It does feel ... every day we get sort of a model update ... Wall Street is paying close attention to these private companies.” (Rooney, 18:40)
• Notable Quote:
  • “Anthropic’s Claude—it’s getting smarter, and even these incremental updates ... have proven to have an impact on tech multiples.” (Rooney, 17:55)

Warner Bros. Discovery Merger Drama: “Warnamount vs. Netflix Bros.”

Guest: Julia Boorstin, CNBC Media Reporter
[19:51–22:31]

• Deal Maneuvers:
  • Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) granted a 7-day waiver to negotiate with Paramount/Skydance.
  • Peace Guy (Skydance/Paramount) ups offer to $31 per share.
  • Netflix’s statement: Peace Guy “mischaracterized the regulatory review process,” warning of global regulatory risks.
  • “We are far from over ... both sides are very much in it to win it.” (UBS, via Julia, 22:00)
  • Big interview with Netflix Co-CEO Ted Sarandos previewed.

Panel Guest: Sean McNulty (The Ankler, industry journalist)
[22:41–30:55]

• Big Personalities & Stakes:
  • “It’s a nice to have for Netflix. It’s a must have for Peace Guy [Ellisons].” (McNulty, 23:28)
  • If Ellisons fail, “there’s nothing else on the market ... to get them to be a top four player globally.”
  • For Paramount, missing out means they’re relegated to organically trying to “build” scale (via sports rights, movies, expanding global streaming), a years-long, costly process.
• Streaming Market Math:
  • Paramount+ at 80M global subs vs. Disney (~130M) and Netflix (~250M): “You’re way behind.”
• M&A Speculation & Regulation:
  • Brian floats wild-card deal speculation: What about mergers with Disney or NBCU?
  • McNulty: Disney “doesn’t need” a Paramount tie-up; NBCU (Peacock) more logical.
  • Regulation would be a “nightmare” for deals combining any “big three” network assets (CBS, ABC, NBC)—still politically sensitive.
• Ellison’s Next Moves:
  • “It’s clear David Ellison is not done making deals. Either buy it or build it.” (Brian, 30:34)

Tech Winners and Stock Market Outlook

Guest: Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist, CFRA Research
[36:15–41:44]

• Microsoft’s Bear Market:
  • Microsoft is down 28% from its 52-week high, at a 25% P/E discount to its five-year average, “still a buy for the longer-term investor.”
  • “Microsoft is one of those companies ... with a very large installed base,” so it’s still more robust than pure SaaS peers. (Stovall, 38:21)
• Where to be Selective:
  • DataDog, HubSpot, Cloudflare, and especially cybersecurity names like Palo Alto and CrowdStrike “benefit from the increase of data.”
• Macro/Midterm Calendar:
  • S&P 500 up double digits three years in a row; if it repeats, only the 5th time in 100 years.
  • “Election years tend to be more volatile ... we could have more ups and downs this year than a ‘normal’ year.” (Brian, 40:45)
  • Stovall still forecasts ~6–7% full year gains, but with volatility.

Ford’s Potential China EV Joint Venture

Guest: Phil LeBeau, CNBC Auto Reporter; Mark Fields, Former Ford CEO (taped remarks)
[44:17–50:52]

• Rumored JV Reality Check:
  • “We can tell you that there are no active talks going on right now between Ford and a Chinese automaker regarding a joint venture in the US ... [though] reports they may do one in Europe.” (LeBeau, 46:22)
  • If realized, Ford would seek to copy joint-venture models used in China: majority Chinese ownership, minority Ford role, helps tech/cost and gives Ford access, but comes with “massive regulatory and political risk.” (Fields, 44:30)
• Why Ford Is Interested:
  • Ford lost $4.8B on US EVs last year, expects another $4–4.5B loss in 2026; profitability in EVs delayed to 2029.
• EV Market Dynamics:
  • Tesla dominates (≈50% share), Ford at 6.6%; only 7.8% of US auto sales were EVs last year.
• Rivian’s R2 Hopes (RVian CEO RJ Scaringe’s optimism):
  • Big pre-orders for R2, but as Brian jokes, “My $100 deposit for the RAM Revolution went nowhere.”

Amazon’s Losing Streak & Bull Case Ahead

Guest: Andrew Boone, Research Analyst, Citizens
[61:02–66:19]

• Amazon’s Losing Streak:
  • Amazon flirting with 10 straight down days (would be worst run since 1997’s infancy as a public company).
• Bullish Thesis:
  • Boone raised price target to $315 (from ≈$200): “We’re pretty bullish … Amazon talked about ... doubling their electricity capacity … more capacity means acceleration in U.S. revenue as more comes online.” (Boone, 62:24)
  • “Capital intensive business”—big investments mean potential demand risk, but acceleration in cloud/AI can “gobble up that supply.”
• Retail Business Still Matters:
  • “Amazon has a massive benefit in terms of the logistics angle ... lowest cost to deliver whatever package,” giving a structural advantage.
  • Adjacency: “The real adjacency for retail is advertising—that is the massive business fueling profits for Amazon overall.” (Boone, 64:32)
• Search Innovation & Data:
  • Amazon expanding to include third-party sellers in search, “starting to incorporate that into search ... advertising is just a massive arm.”
  • “They have more information and data on us than we probably know about ourselves.” (Brian, 65:16)

Figma and the “No More Lazy Software Investing” Mantra

Guest: Deirdre Bosa, CNBC Tech Reporter
[66:35–70:36]

• Figma’s AI Bet:
  • Figma launches “Code to Canvas,” partnership with Anthropic (Claude model), allowing AI-generated code to be quickly imported as editable designs—betting value lies “in what happens next ... when teams come together to refine/iterate/decide” (Figma CEO Dylan Field, 67:32).
  • Field: “We control the inputs, let’s show up every day, work as hard as we can ... everything else will take care of itself.” (Field, 69:20)
• Stock Reaction:
  • Figma stock pops 4% post-partnership news—a rare up move in the beleaguered software sector.
  • Field’s advice: “No more lazy software investing”—integrate disruptive tools, face change head-on.
• Who Will Survive?
  • “You’ve got to go with companies that are thinking about how to integrate these new tools ... No more lazy software investing.” (Bosa, 70:06)

Bonds: The “Stability” Trade Amid Tech Volatility

Guest: Tom Kozlik, Head of Public Policy & Municipal Strategy, Hilltop Securities
[72:20–75:09]

• Bond Investors Active, Not Lazy:
  • “Premium on stability ... 2026 could be as good of a year, if not the best, for munis—maybe even better than 2007.”
  • Still generationally attractive yields; “make some money while playing defense.”
• Where to Focus:
  • “Be selective about credits ... high quality state/local governments, single family housing, selective in K-12 and higher ed credits.”
  • Warning: “Extra careful” in high yield—both structural and cyclical issues.
• Biggest Risks:
  • AI’s effect on credit ratings for tech-heavy areas like San Francisco, but Kozlik sees more upside long-term due to “decades of reinvention.”

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Greg Moskowitz, Mizuho (on Wall Street AI panic):
  “Maybe the market is getting it wrong and is grossly oversimplifying.” [14:11]
• Kate Rooney, CNBC (on Anthropic’s AI race):
  “Even these incremental updates ... have proven to have an impact on tech multiples.” [17:55]
• Sean McNulty, The Ankler (on streaming M&A):
  “It’s a nice to have for Netflix. It’s a must have for Peace Guy [Ellisons].” [23:28]
• Sam Stovall, CFRA:
  “I like to say that I’m a bull, but small cap B ... time to fasten your safety belts.” [40:57]
• Phil LeBeau, CNBC (on Ford/China JV speculation):
  “There are no active talks going on right now between Ford and a Chinese automaker regarding a joint venture in the United States.” [46:22]
• Andrew Boone, Citizens (on Amazon):
  “We’re pretty bullish on the US business ... more capacity coming online ... that’s going to lead to an acceleration in terms of US revenue.” [62:24]
• Dylan Field, Figma CEO (via Deirdre Bosa):
  “We control the inputs, let’s show up every day ... everything else will take care of itself.” [69:20]
• Tom Kozlik, Hilltop Securities:
  “There’s been a lot of risk taking ... municipal yields are still near generational attractive levels ... 2026 could be the best year for municipals since 2007.” [72:47]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:34–16:02: Software sector sell-off and AI “panic” with Greg Moskowitz
• 16:20–19:25: Anthropic AI update with Kate Rooney
• 19:51–30:55: “Warnamount” vs. “Netflix Bros.” merger drama with Julia Boorstin & Sean McNulty
• 36:15–41:44: ‘Blue-chip’ tech and macro outlook with Sam Stovall
• 44:17–50:52: Ford-Chinese JV EV speculation with Phil LeBeau and Mark Fields
• 61:02–66:19: Amazon’s losing streak/bull case with Andrew Boone
• 66:35–70:36: Figma’s AI pivot and survival play with Deirdre Bosa
• 72:20–75:09: Municipal bonds & stability with Tom Kozlik

Tone & Language

• Conversational, fast-paced, slightly irreverent (host Brian Sullivan cracks jokes, uses direct language—“no more lazy software investing”, “markets tell the story, not my opinion”)
• Guests are analytical but approachable, often highlighting risk and uncertainty but also market opportunities.

For Listeners Who Missed It:

This episode delivers sharp perspective on how AI fears are roiling tech valuations (even when the companies’ actual fundamentals/seat counts haven’t cratered!), dissects the behind-the-scenes drama of the biggest Hollywood streaming merger saga, and checks in on the future of American EVs, Amazon’s investment reality, and where cautious investors might still find stability in the bond market. Insightful, high-energy, and full of actionable context.