Ex-NATO Commander: Why Britain Isn't Ready for the Unthinkable (E400)

Summary

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The High Performance Podcast — Episode 400

"Ex-NATO Commander: Why Britain Isn't Ready for the Unthinkable"
Guest: Richard (Retired British General, Ex-NATO Commander)
Hosts: Jake Humphrey, Damian Hughes, Jay
Date: March 23, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode features retired British general and former senior NATO commander Richard, who shares sobering insights into the current state of global security, with a focus on Britain's preparedness for emerging threats. The discussion explores the ongoing conflicts involving Russia, Iran, and global power dynamics, Britain's military readiness, the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan, and a controversial but timely debate about military conscription and national service. The conversation is rooted in lived military experience, peppered with reflections on leadership, morale, and the necessity for bold political direction.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Fragility of Global Peace and the Shadow of Escalation

• Opening Assessment of World Conflict (02:14):

  • Richard paints a picture of a world on the brink, describing Ukraine as the opening front of “World War Three,” noting how Putin’s actions in Ukraine and global instability present a real threat to European security.
  • The widening conflict involving Iran has drawn in the United States, creating opportunities for destabilizing actors globally—including China in the Far East—with significant economic impact.
    • "I think the dynamic of what is happening now is in danger of being uncontrollable... the reality of Putin's genocidal war in Ukraine... What's happening now with Iran and the Gulf is sucking in the United States." — Richard (02:14)

• Trump’s Attack on Iran (03:34):

  • The recent US-led interventions in Iran are described as a "war of hubris" without clear strategy or outcome, risking greater instability by not anticipating the Iranian response or thinking through end states.

2. War Gaming & The Failure of Strategy

• On War Gaming and Decision-Making (09:47):

  • Richard explains that war gaming, a fundamental planning tool, was insufficiently applied by US leadership, resulting in strategic surprise at Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
    • “Any military commander knows before you launch an operation, you war game it... and the Americans don’t appear to have done that.” — Richard (05:52)
  • War gaming’s wider application in business and leadership: “It’s about thinking, if I do this, what’s the enemy going to do to screw up my plan?” (09:47)

• Lessons from Iraq & Afghanistan (14:00–19:50):

  • Drawing from personal experience in Basra, he discusses the agony of operating without sufficient resources or political support, linking the fall of Basra and later Afghanistan’s collapse to broader Western failures of strategy and political will.
  • “Iraq for the British... was a strategic failure... and I think it’s scarred the British psyche... the reluctance to get involved in Iran is a direct consequence of that.” — Richard (19:31)

3. Leadership and Morale in the Military

• The Slim Doctrine – Three Elements of Morale (20:03):

  • Citing Field Marshal Slim, Richard breaks down morale:
    • Spiritual: A clear, inspiring purpose.
    • Intellectual: A credible, professional plan.
    • Physical: Troops’ well-being and basic needs met.
  • Personal approach: maintaining visibility, communication, and confidence even in challenging missions.

• Application to US and UK Armed Forces Today (22:02–22:52):

  • US troops follow presidential orders (“They’ll be certain that they’re doing the right thing.”).
  • Contrast with the UK: lower public and political support for intervention, creating dilemmas for military leaders and morale.

4. Britain, NATO, and Military Readiness

• Is Britain Ready? (40:00–45:24):
  • Richard is clear: Britain is unprepared for a major conflict, with “a shadow” of its former armed forces in terms of manpower, kit, and readiness.
  • He warns that effective deterrence—the only way to prevent war—is now lacking due to underinvestment and shrinking capabilities.
    • “If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, they will try it on in the Baltic States, and if that happens, we’re at war. The only way we deter that is through effective military deterrence... We’ve got nothing like that.” — Richard (40:09–41:00)
  • Outlines the stark contrast between past capability (Falklands, Gulf War) and today’s struggles to muster even basic readiness.

5. The Case for Conscription and National Service

• Universal Service as a Solution? (45:24–48:17):
  • Drawing inspiration from Finland and Norway, Richard proposes citizen service, not just military but across sectors, as a way to bolster resilience, social unity, and national preparedness.
  • He argues conscription could provide young people meaningful life experience, skills, and a sense of contribution—contrary to negative stereotypes.
    • “I think citizen service is absolutely a concept we should be thinking about... giving an opportunity to contribute will make, you know, stronger society, a more inclusive society.” — Richard (45:53–47:33)
  • Challenges the narrative that modern youth are less capable or resilient.

6. Lessons from History: Leadership and the Cost of Inaction

• On Political Failings in the West (25:52–29:07):
  • The twin rise of Trump and Putin is attributed to failures in the liberal political order and a disregard for signals from adversaries.
  • Britain’s and the West’s continual downsizing of military capacity has emboldened adversaries.
    • “We’ve ended up with both of them in a sense, more broadly, because we've not changed our frames of reference... we've just been in bloody la la never land.” — Richard (28:31)

7. Optimism & The Path Forward

• Hope and Agency (50:23–51:50):
  • Despite dire assessments, Richard remains optimistic about Britain’s underlying talent, ingenuity, and potential—if only matched with bold political leadership and clear direction.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Underestimating the Enemy:
  • “It is such a human condition to underestimate your opposition or to underestimate your enemy.” — Richard (12:04)
• Slim’s Three Elements of Morale:
  • “Spiritual... there’s gotta be a purpose that inspires people... Intellectual... there's gotta be a plan that can succeed... Physical... People have got to feel looked after.” — Richard (20:03)
• Strategy’s Elusive Spark:
  • “Nine-tenths of tactics is teachable. But the elusive tenth... is like a kingfisher flashing across a pool. That intuition. That’s how I made decisions.” — Richard (39:27)
• On Conscription’s Societal Value:
  • “You'd find a chap from Eton bedding down in a barrack room next to a miner's son... everybody mucking in together like that has got to be good for society.” — Richard (47:33)
• On Political Leadership:
  • “We as a population need to be making it 100% clear to our leaders that we expect bold decisions... We can meet those challenges, I’ve no doubt about it. But we’ve just got to force our leaders to lead properly.” — Richard (51:50)

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Efficient Leadership & Decision-Making: Military Lessons for Everyday Life

• War Gaming in Leadership (09:47–11:51):
  Richard’s war gaming tactics are echoed as a universal principle: plan for red-team challenge, encourage dissent, test ideas in a “safe-to-fail” context before real action.
• Team Decision-Making (36:23):
  True leadership is collaborative; rank is set aside to harness collective wisdom.
• Intuition Over Certainty (38:33–39:55):
  Barack Obama’s “51% rule” for decisions and the acceptance of “the kingfisher flash” moment—the necessity, in the end, to act without total certainty.

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Relevance for Listeners

This episode is a call to attention for citizens and leaders: the world is changing, and inaction or complacency carries grave risk. Simultaneously, it offers a positive outlook—Britain is not short of talent or spirit, but it needs to match those assets with clear strategy, bold leadership, and new models of service and unity. The episode also presents military strategies—like morale, war gaming, and collaborative leadership—as essential and transferrable tools for high performance in any field.

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Global Strategic Risks & Conflict Escalation: 02:14–05:52
• War Gaming & US Strategic Failure in Iran: 09:40–11:51
• Iraq, Afghanistan, & British Military Lessons: 14:00–19:53
• Three Elements of Morale: 20:03–22:02
• Britain’s Military Readiness & Deterrence: 40:00–45:24
• The Conscription Debate & Social Unity: 45:24–48:29
• Reflections on Leadership, Decision-Making, and Optimism: 51:50–54:02
• Quick-Fire Leadership Questions: 51:50–53:34

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Closing Reflections (Hosts)

Jake and Damian highlight the relevance of Richard’s lessons to civilian life—debating the benefits of broad national service, the real value of morale, and the need for intuition in tough calls. They draw parallels between battle-readiness and achieving high performance in personal or business contexts, reaffirming listeners' ability to shape the future by demanding effective leadership and contributing to broader society.

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For listeners who want history, strategy, and leadership wisdom in a single rich conversation, this is a must-listen episode—illuminating the often unseen intersections between military preparedness and our collective national and civic resilience.

Transcript

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[Richard (Retired British General)]

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[Damien (Interviewer)]

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[Richard (Retired British General)]

I think the dynamic of what is happening now is in danger of being uncontrollable. First priority, the first major issue we cannot ignore, and it's upfront, is the reality of Putin's genocidal war in Ukraine, that is, and the fact that Russia is at war with Europe. Now it's not a conventional war, but it's A covert war below the threshold of conventional. What's happening now with Iran and the Gulf is sucking in the United States and we'll see where that goes. What does that give the rest of the world? Well, firstly, it's a massive opportunity for Putin because he's watching while the oil price goes through the roof and that all goes into his economy and he's struggling his economy, so this is just what he wants. And then go to the Far east where we know that Xi has said that Taiwan will become Chinese and that's fact, will become Chinese. But this might just be his opportunity. I think he would probably have hesitated to launch a military operation. But with American attention focused in Iran, then that is his opportunity. And then the global destabilization, the impact on the global economy. So I think we are in a really dangerous place.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

That's such a scary five minutes. And my brain is saying to me, well, hold on. Donald Trump has launched this attack on Iran to prevent nuclear war. That's the message that we've all been given. They need their nuclear weapons to be removed from active service, therefore, let us go and do that. But what you're saying is this almost feels like this pushes us closer, not further away.

[Richard (Retired British General)]

I'm not sure what Donald Trump launched his war for. I think it's a war of choice. It's absolutely a war of hubris. And he has flip flopped between regime change, destroy the nuclear weapons, remove the mullahs, remove the missiles and the consequences without a, you know, this is another war without a clear end state, a clear design, a clear strategy, and a clear statement of how this war ends. And you've got effectively two wars going on. You've got the Arab Israeli bombing campaign, which is awesome, which is industrial scale aerial bomb bombardment. It's destroying the Iranian military, it's decapitating the leadership. The Ayatollah has been taken out and from a Shia perspective, he's now become a sainted martyr as a result. Like it or not, Larijani, the security chief, interestingly, probably the only guy, one of the key guys who might have been able to negotiate an end to this. As we heard this morning, he's been taken out as well. So I'm not sure what his aim is. But the Iranian war is pretty canny because they know they can't match America and Israel for strength. But they've still got a whole lot of cheap drones which they're launching. You know, they've generated, he's generated. Trump has launched a regional war here with the Iranian Response whacking Gulf states willy nilly. But now, of course, as well, just by closing off the Strait of Hormuz, Trump doesn't know what to do. He's got two options. One is launch a major military operation to reopen the Gulf.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

Boots on the ground.

[Richard (Retired British General)]

I can't see how you do it without, I mean, really, how do you control? I mean, you've only got to look at the TV shots. I've not been there, but you've got to look at the TV shots of that rocky coastline, desert, uninhabited, really inhospitable. All it takes is a couple of guys with drones to close it off. Yeah, we heard last night that they've been bashing the missile batteries. Do we know about that? The only way you see achieve really decisive effect in war is on the ground. And yet again, you see, the Americans and Israelis thought they could achieve all this by regime change. I think the Israelis are pretty simple. They just want to hammer Iran. They don't give a damn about what, what the consequences for Iran are and if it turns Iran into a failed state. The Israelis, they know that Iran has been an existential threat to Israel ever since the revolution in 1979. So they're not fussed about what comes out of Iran. They just want to see Iran basically neutralized and if necessary, destroyed. I don't think the Americans believe that's in their interest. But the consequence of bombing, I mean, you're not going to achieve regime change by bombing. What's happening is the mullahs are hunkering down, the irg, the militia are establishing even tighter grip on the population. And if you were Iranian and you'd seen what the regime did to you and your friends and your family in January when thousands were massacred, are you gonna stick your head above the parapet? You haven't got any means of doing it. You've got no leadership, you've got no organization. Probably not. So that's why I say the regime is. However damaged it is, it is hunkering down and it's surviving. And you know, this is no surprise. I mean, you've only got, you know, here we are in London. What happened in London in 1940-41, with a blitz British spirit, Londoner spirit became even stronger. The same happened when the Allies tried to destroy German civilian morale in the alliance in the bombing campaign later on in the war. It didn't break German morale. And look at what's going on in Ukraine. That's not breaking Ukrainian morale either. So coming back to your question, I can't see how you can open the gates, the Strait of Hormuz without a major combined arms operation, which could easily require boots on the ground troops. And indeed, what are the Americans doing? They've got a Marine Expeditionary Unit steaming all the way from Japan to join the fight. So what we've got here is America surprised by the Iranian response. And that says to me there's been a fundamental failure by the Americans to war game the impact, the likely impact of their operations. And that is, frankly, it's Billy, basic stuff. Any military commander knows that before you launch an operation, you war game it. You set up a red team to represent, to role play the enemy or anybody else who can screw up your plan. And you put your most free thinking and anarchic people into that team. And they ask the really difficult questions, if I do this, well, this is what we're going to do to you. And the Americans don't appear to have done that because they haven't thought through the impact of a regional war and they clearly assumed that, did not think that the Iranians would close off the Strait of Hormuz. The other alternative, the other course of action is Trump just walks away. He realizes he's over a battle over a barrel. He declares victory and he walks away. The only thing is it won't be victory because while the Iranians hold the Strait of Hormuz, they've got all the cards, they're winning. And if Trump walks away from this, he will be seen as the man who was defeated by the Iranians.

[Jay (Co-Interviewer)]

I'm intrigued by the war gaming reference that you made there. Could you explain a little bit around what effective war gaming is?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

It's a tried and tested military technique and actually it's just as relevant in business as well. Okay. And what it does, I mean, you have a. It's about you do your planning, your plans, support a strategy, and it may look wonderfully sophisticated. And you think, you sit back and think, well, I've got a great plan. But as we know, you know, as Mike Tyson said, everybody's got a plan until they get punched in the mouth. And Trump's been punched in the mouth here, so what do you do to avoid that? Nobody can foretell the future. And you might have the most sophisticated risk management process with lots of charts and spreadsheets with risks colored in red and amber and green and mitigation measures, et cetera, but nobody can tell the future. Nobody can crystal ball unless you're a sort of, you know, a seer or a prophet. So what do you do war game? And that's where you set up a. It's quite, in the military it can be quite a formal process or it can be a relatively simple whiteboard process. But in the military world you'd set up a red team, normally led by the intelligence, the head of your intelligence organization who'd bring in a number of people from within the headquarters to represent the, to think enemy. Because that's what it's about. It's about thinking, if I do this, what's the enemy going to do to, you know, to screw up my plan? And then you go through the plan in a systematic way, a bit like a chess game. I move here, right? If you move there, red team the enemy, role play say well if you do that this is what we're gonna do. And then you realize, hey, that's not clever, he's caught me out. So I go back to my planning and think, well, in order to avoid that, this is what I've got to do. And it's a brilliant way. Of testing your plan in a safe to fail environment. It doesn't matter if you get it wrong. In fact, it helps if you get it wrong because you can then put in place measures to ensure that when you do it for real, you don't get it wrong.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

I don't really understand though how we've ended up in a position where the so called leader of the free world, Donald Trump, the commander in chief of the American armed forces, has not fully war gamed this.

[Richard (Retired British General)]

It is such a human condition to underestimate your opposition or to underestimate your enemy.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

Did you ever suffer with it in your career? And if you did, how did you ensure that you prevented it from.

[Richard (Retired British General)]

I experienced strategic failure and it's relevant to the Middle east, of course, because this is Iraq, it's 2006 and I was commanding the 3rd Division and we were. The divisional headquarters was sent to be the divisional headquarters commanding the multinational division in southeast Iraq which covered the the four provinces of southeast Iraq, Basra, Muthana, Mezan and Dhikar province. And I mean I went out on a, we took over in July. I went out in May with my close team from the headquarters on a reconnaissance to get a feel for what was going on. I mean the task was to get, to establish security in those four provinces in order to establish security and then hand them over to the Iraqi authorities for all aspects of governance and security. When I went out in May, I was pretty surprised, if not shocked by what I saw because take Basra this is a city of then of 1.3 million people. And any movement around the city by Kurdish and troops, we had British, we had Danish. In Basra involved a fight, it turned into a battle because we didn't control security. And that was a surprise and a shock for me because my first operation Tour was Belfast, 1978, in west Belfast, where the army had effectively a brigade of three battalions, so call it 3,000 people, 3,000 soldiers on the ground in West Belfast to counter the ira. I'm not going to get into the where's and why fors of this, but this was the way it was and the security was tight. It was really, you know, we didn't get shot at every time we went out of barracks. We, yeah, the IRA were absolutely trying to do that. But because security there was, you know, the area had been flooded by troops, which must have been a nightmare for the locals, but that's the way it was. So Basra was completely different. And I remember coming and everywhere I went I picked up that, you know, and it was listening and talking to people. It was talking to the RAF air crew in the back of a helicopter while I was flying up to Baghdad. It was talking to, you know, talking to soldiers and NCOs on the ground, it was talking to commanding officers on the ground. We just didn't have the troop levels. And there was a sort of spirit, there was a sort of defensive, hunkered down spirit, as if we weren't prepared to get stuck in and establish security. So we came back and we worked through a whole lot of plans with my small team. And we decided that the only way we were going to regain security was by going by launching an operation to regain security, because otherwise we were facing mission failure. And it wasn't going to be a question of just blasting in, because you can't do that. You've got to think it through quite carefully. And we, we, we, we worked it through with establishment of security. And then of course, what you've got to do is try and win the hearts and minds. You've got to recognize that everything you do has got to be looked at through the eyes of the people you're operating amongst. Because if you alienate the people you're operating amongst, you're gifting the advantage to the adversary. And the adversary here in Basra at the time was a highly organized, Iranian backed, Iranian trained, Iranian equipped militia. And this was a proxy war against Iran in Basra. So we put together this operation for which we needed reinforcements in order to search. But we were having to, at the same time persuade, cajole, our UK chain of command that this was needed. And there you had. And this is why I feel so passionately about the failure of strategy in Iran, because Iraq was a failure of strategy. There was no clear thinking about what happened after the invasion. By 2006, there was really. And if you think back to those days, you had a government, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, not a happy relationship at that time. This was not a campaign which was supported by the British people. You remember the demonstrations on the streets of London of over a million people saying, don't get involved. And you can't operate like that because if there's no political support, there's going to be no strategic support. And therefore it's the guys who are trying to mend, who are trying to mend what is being broken, who are trying to do it without any tools. And that's where we found ourselves. And so we launched the operation, et cetera, et cetera, but it did not succeed. And it didn't succeed because. Not. Because I don't think we. We were never, never bettered in any, Any, Any, any street fight, because the British soldiers are just second to none. Frankly, I can't speak highly of them, but because we didn't have the resources, because we. We were not given the political cover, there wasn't genuine political will to resolve it. In Whiteh. We ended up with a bit of success, but not as a bit of tactical success. But I'm afraid the consequence of not regaining security properly in Basra then led to everything else that followed. And the withdrawal from. The withdrawal from Basra under fire, handing it over to the militia after we had left, and then ultimately Iraq. Iraq for the British, Iraq. Iraq, I'm afraid, was a strategic failure. And I find it ironic now that. Who are the oil companies operating in Iraq? Well, the French are all over it, certainly our bit of southeast Iraq, and I don't know if there are any British oil companies there, but anyway, others have benefited from it. But, you know, we. And of course, that experience, I think, of Iraq and then subsequently Afghanistan, which was also a strategic failure, and it needn't have been a strategic failure. The precipitate withdrawal, again, the rug pulled under that NATO training mission by the Americans in 2021 led. I think there's a linkage with what happened in Ukraine subsequently, but that was a failure. Despite the absolutely sterling efforts, extraordinary courage and resilience and bravery shown by not just British but NATO troops, our allies, the Danes, the Canadians and you name it. And that, I think, has scarred the British psyche. And they're not going to forget about this because it was. You put boots on the ground and look where it got us. And I think it's understandable that it did. And so I think that sort of reluctance, the reluctance to getting involved with what Trump's little, what he calls excursion in Iran is a direct consequence of that.

[Jay (Co-Interviewer)]

Can I ask you, I mean, that story about Iraq is intriguing. How do you go about leading a team when you feel that sense of helplessness that you feel you're on a doomed mission?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

I didn't feel I was on a doomed mission. I was determined we could do it. You've got to show confidence. You've got to be clear. I mean, and it's about morale. And if I can just, you know, the great Field Marshal Slim, who commanded the 14th army in Burma, he said there are three components of morale. Number one is spiritual. And that's not in a religious sense, but there's gotta be a purpose that inspires people to do what needs to be done. You know, it's defeat, Nazism or, you know, whatever. There's gotta be a purpose. Well, our purpose was to establish security. The second aspect is intellectual. There's gotta be a plan that can succeed, and people have gotta have confidence that the plan that they're undertaking has been thought through professionally and can work. And I think we had that. And the third aspect of Slim's components of morale, interestingly, was physical, last but important. People have got to feel looked after. Conditions have got to be as good as they possibly can be. And that's ironic because sometimes in the military, morale is highest when conditions are at the most demanding. So I used to, you know, and it's about being able to communicate that what you want to do. And when we were planning the operation and before we launched it, I spent most of my time out. I mean, not in my headquarters. I was out with the units, with the guys, with the troops visiting, walking, talking. And I would tell them if I came across, you know, if I met a patrol of 12 guys about to go out, I'd explain what we were trying to do, right? If I met a new battalion which came in, which had come in to relieve another, we'd assemble everybody we could in the cookhouse, and I'd talk to them about it. It's about talking and communicating.

[Jay (Co-Interviewer)]

So if you apply Slim's three principles of. Of morale, how do you. To the current situation with the American military? How does it square up?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

Well, number One never underestimate the importance of the position of the commander in chief. The President, you know, he is the commander in chief of the American armed forces. And I don't know if they swear an oath, but they swear an oath to the Constitution, and therefore the President is head of all that. So they'll do what he does, they'll do what they're told. And if the President says, we are here to regime change, or we are here to destroy the nukes, or we are here to destroy the missiles, however confused the message, it'll be right as, sir, we'll go along with it.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

So they will feel that they're doing the right thing.

[Richard (Retired British General)]

They'll be certain that they're doing the right thing.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

I wonder where this leaves the British armed forces, though, because if. Is it inevitable, do you think that we will see American troops on the ground?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

No, it's not. But possible. It's absolutely unlikely. I think, as I said, if you boil it down, it's either declare victory and get out, leaving the Iranians holding the Gulf of the Strait of Hormuz. Now, if you, if you're in a fight and you walk away, you might declare victory.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

I think none of us in this room expect Donald Trump to take that route.

[Richard (Retired British General)]

Right. But if he does walk away, you know, just, you know, if there's a playground fight going on and one. One goes, walks away, that's. He's been defeated, you know, that's. It's victory to whoever's left holding the floor. So the alternative to that is escalation.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

Yeah.

[Richard (Retired British General)]

Because I can't see a stalemate going on indefinitely.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

And then I wonder what the impact is then on the British armed forces, because the Americans will be getting the message that they get from their president and from their people that this is the right and proper thing to be doing. I think the message that the British armed forces might be hearing from our media and from our conversations and from our prime minister is quite different. So what happens if, if our armed forces get sucked into a similar position and we have to put boots on the ground, NATO has to get involved in this conflict.

[Richard (Retired British General)]

Well, then you're into, you're into the sort of. Now, if the Prime Minister says, and the government says we're going to get involved, then the British military will turn to the right and get on with it and do. Do the best they possibly can and every soldier, sailor and airman will do, do what he or she has been told. Yeah. Will they believe in it? Question mark? I mean, the poll I saw yesterday 70% of the British people do not believe we should be getting involved in, in this war.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

So how hard is that then for the current leadership in the British armed forces?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

It's, it places them in, you know, this is the challenge of, of high command.

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Yeah.

[Richard (Retired British General)]

It is the duty and the task of the chiefs, the Chief of Defence Staff, the chief of the General Staff and the others to advise, principally through the Chief of Defence Staff, to advise the government about the feasibility of the use of the military. And you have to be ready to lay out the consequences of going to war. I mean, if we do get involved, I mean, I really concerned that this would be a repeat of the mistakes made in 2003.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

How do you think we've ended up in a position where the two most powerful men in the world are Trump and Putin?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

We've ended up with Trump because of the failure of the so called liberal orthodoxy. Order. Why have people voted for Trump? Because current systems in America failed that people felt this is exactly why we ended up with Brexit. People felt the decisions were being taken over their heads that they didn't have by, they weren't being bought in. And you've only got to look at the politics of this country, you know, with, with reform high in the polls, with the Greens becoming the sort of, you know, radical party of the left, labor in, you know, labor and the Tories in bits. And the same applies in France with national rally, Germany, AfD. So I think it's a real, real worry. And until and unless you've got bold leadership from the center that has real solutions for the problems, whether it's defense, immigration, you know, all these sort of issues which worry people on a day to day basis. Putin. We've ended up with Putin because we didn't. And we've ended up with both of them in a sense, more broadly because we've not changed our frames of reference. With Putin, we didn't listen to him. He said very clearly in munich Security Conference 2007, laid out his thinking. He absolutely laid out his thinking the day that Crimea was incorporated in the Russian Federation. I remember it very well. I read it in English transcript the next day and it sent a chill down the spine because I knew then that he was going to go to war in Ukraine.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

What had he said in that?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

He said the policy of containment that happened in the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries is still going on. They NATO promised not to move to our borders and they did, which is nonsense. NATO never promised. If you press the spring it will push back something you must remember.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

Oh, he said that?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

Yep. 90% of the Russian people believe we should look after the interests of all Russians, even if it will make us unpopular with some countries. In other words, Russian speaking minorities in the Baltic states. Coming back to Putin, why have we got Putin? Because we've let it happen. We didn't listen to what he said and we continued to cut and cut and cut our armed forces. So Putin thinks, I've got an open girl here. The west is weak, the west is soft. NATO's a busted flush. And I said all that in the book in the Forward. I also was pretty critical about our politicians. And the Tories were as bad as anybody because they wrapped themselves in the Union. Jack, talk about our brave boys and girls and then promptly shaft them. You know, what do you wish people

[Jay (Co-Interviewer)]

would have done differently in terms of taking your message seriously?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

Well, what I wish is to say, right, the only way we maintain peace is through strength. Right. You know, it's the old Roman maxim adage, if you want peace, prepare for war. And to say, right, we need strong defense and it's enough is enough. And if we'd started and back in 2014, not if, where was Cameron and negotiating the so called Mintz deals? He was hiding behind the sofa despite the fact that Britain and France and America with Russia signed the Budapest memorandum in 1994 under which Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons in return for guarantees of guarantees to protect Ukrainian sovereignty. So where was Cameron? Nowhere to be seen. And that's what I wish people had done differently. I wish our leaders had freaking well led instead of hiding behind the sofa. I wish our leaders had stepped up to the mark and said we've got a real problem with the defense and we're going to do something about it. I wish our leaders had said after 2014, if we don't build up Ukraine, this bastard's going to attack Ukraine. Instead of which Obama withdrew American support from Ukraine after 2014. And if I wish our leaders had listened to what Putin had said was saying instead of thinking we're really happy with all the Russian money flooding around London, you know, I'm a real estate agent or a banker or a lawyer and I've got lots of Russian funds in my account instead of saying we've got to see Russia as they are, don't get me wrong, Russians individually, great people. Absolutely. I mean, I remember a Lithuanian general who had been a Soviet conscript in the strategic headquarters before my first visit to NATO, to Moscow, as a deus echo. And he knows the Russians you won't find anybody in the Baltic states who's not had family deported to Siberia. And he said, remember? Yeah, he said, remember one thing. You will never have a better friend than a Russian. He'll laugh with you, he'll cry with you, he'll drink with you. He'll give you his last kopek if you run out of money. But as a nation, they are horrible. So all of that and meanwhile we've just been in bloody la la never land. You know, just thinking that we live in the best possible world without realizing that the wolves are snapping around it. And the only way to keep the wolves at bay is through proper defense. We'll be right back after a quick

[Damien (Interviewer)]

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[Richard (Retired British General)]

Tu francais hablas espanol? Parley italiano.

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[Damien (Interviewer)]

I think sometimes we're too simplistic or the media is too simplistic when we talk about something like, should the British Armed Forces be engaged in the conflict in the Middle east because they lay the blame squarely at the door of Keir Starmer. Certain media outlets love to talk about the fact that he's getting it wrong and he should have got involved and he looks weak and they report on what Donald Trump has to say. But this isn't just Sir Keir Starmer sitting on his own in a room thinking about whether to get involved or not. Right. This will be him taking all the information from his senior commanders, is that right in the British Armed Forces?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

Absolutely.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

So would you give us an idea of what is actually going on right now behind the doors of number 10 Downing street, that is informing the Prime Minister, Are they meeting? Where are they meeting? What happens once they make a decision?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

I can't really take you behind the doors because I never. I worked for the Chief of Defence Staff as a, as a head of his private office, so I can base it on that experience. And I think what you'd find is regular communication, regular meetings in the Cabinet Office briefing room, the so called COBRA meetings, assessing the situation and looking at options. And I've no doubt that there will have been. The mod would have been pretty busy looking at what the potential courses of action are, because they'll have been told by dining street, give us some potential courses of action, what are the options? But. And they will have done that. If you decide to do this, this is what we could produce. These are the pros, these are the cons, et cetera, for every course of action. But ultimately, of course, it is a political decision that is the essence of civil control of the military in a democracy. And that's what it's about. This is the moment where the Prime Minister, this is what the Prime Minister's paid to do. He's paid to lead. And leading is about making decisions. But he will have absolutely taken wide counsel, not just from the Chief of Defence Staff representing the military, but his political advisors and his Cabinet colleagues.

[Jay (Co-Interviewer)]

So will you tell us, as somebody that's led troops to 20,000, when you make a decision like this, you take all the information in, you red team it and, and you go through the processes. What are the kind of questions you ask yourself before you make a final decision?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

People think the military is a very sort of hierarchical, if not dictatorial, and the big Boss says this is what we're going to do. My experience, it doesn't work like that. It is about talking and discussing as a team. And when we were putting together this operation in Basra, we start with the reconnaissance. I go out with my immediate team, chief of staff, deputy chief of staff, our advisor, two or three staff officers. And we'd meet every evening and we'd all go off and do different things, then we'd share our thoughts at the end of the day. And gradually we're beginning to realize that this situation is turning into a crock of what's it here. There's only one way we can sort it out and that's to regain control of Basra. And so we formalized that when we came back from that, we sat down for a proper divisional estimate process where we sat around a table with all the key staff and we talk it through. And then when we go back and then we form come up with a series of courses of action, staff will go away and drill into those courses of action. Pros, cons, advantage, resources required, risks, etc, etc. When we got out into Iraq, the first thing was to establish has the situation changed? And that requires getting out on the ground and going through almost the same process. And then, no, we say, right, okay, no, it's very clear the situation has not changed. Our original estimate process was right. We need to mount an operation. So we go through the detail of that. And that is a consensual process where everybody's round a table and it doesn't matter what rank you are, you can be a major, you can be a major general. I mean, the rule I always used to say was that rank has no privileges in this discussion because you're trying to harness the brain's the genius of everybody.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

Barack Obama used to speak about the rule of 51% because he could never have certainty in a lot of his decisions. So he'd say as soon as he's. As soon as 51% feels like the number, as soon as it's more one way than the other, that was enough for him. How would you judge after all the information has been disseminated and everyone turns their eyes towards you in the room and you have to make a decision. What would you decide internally to come to the right decision?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

I think so much of it is based on intuition. Yeah, I mean, there's a great line from T. Lawrence, Lawrence of Arabia, in his book Seven Pillars of Wisdom. And he was, you know, he was an archaeologist and an Oxford academic who led. Co. Led the Arab revolt. He had no military training at all, but he said 9/10 of tactics is teachable in schools. That's the, that's the science of war.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

Yeah.

[Richard (Retired British General)]

That is the how you do it. But the elusive 10th, 10th, the test of generals is like a kingfisher flashing across a pool. I think it's just brilliant that, because it is that intuition. Sudden flash. Got it. That's what. And that's what, that's. That, that's, that's how, that's how I made decisions. The intuition, the flash, that sort of sense of. Yup, that's what we got to do.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

Are we going to be in a position where the Prime Minister needs to make a big decision about conscription?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

Now you're getting onto a really tricky one. The only way we maintain peace in Europe for our generation, for my grandchildren's generation and your children's, is through effective military deterrence. Nobody wants a war. We've got to do everything we can to avoid a shooting war. We see what a shooting war is doing to Ukraine for the last four years. We've got, and let's be clear, if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, they will try it on in the Baltic States. And if that happens, we're at war. The only way we deter that is through effective military deterrence. And that means we've got to demonstrate to the Russians that we are ready for anything they want to throw at us. And this is a regime defined by war. Putin came in as president in 1999 on the back of arguably engineering the destruction of the blowing up of apartment blocks by so called Chechen rebels, probably done by the fsb, Chechnya, Syria, Georgia, Ukraine, Crimea and now Ukraine. And he's got to continue the forward movement. And you then say, okay, if we need effective deterrence, what does that mean? It means we've got to be ready for war in every respect, rather as we were in the Cold War. Life went on in the Cold War, of course it did, and we flourished and had peace, but we had a military that was strong, we had home defense that had been thought through, civil defense, we had, et cetera, et cetera. We've got nothing like that. The British Army, Air Force, Navy, as you saw, I mean, HMS Dragon has finally got to Gibraltar two weeks later in 1982 with the Falklands. The Navy got 140 ships out of the door within four or five days. You know, that's how things have gone. The British army is a shadow. I mean, the soldiers, don't get me wrong, the quality of the soldiers the quality of the leadership is second to none and I'm sure it's much, much better than it was in my day. Brilliant guys and girls. But do they have the kit? Do they have the sustainability? Have they got the endurance? The answer is no. Spares, kit, bullets, bombs, all the stuff Manpower. Army have meant to be pegged at 70,000, but they can't, you know, they can't. They're having struggling to attract recruits for that. So I have said on a pretty frequent basis that I think we have to think the unthinkable. Now, I know this is anathema to any professional soldier and nobody wants conscription, but when you look at the way the Finns do it, a population of just under 6 million, they can get 280,000 soldiers out of the door at short readiness because they have universal male conscription. And everybody who serves for whatever it is, nine months or a year, depending on whether you become an NCO or not or an officer, is liable, has a reserve liability. So you can get 280,000 soldiers ready to fight. The Finns could deploy 200 of the latest variant of Leopard 2 tank at short notice. British army couldn't begin to do that. You look at the way the Norwegians look at it. Do it. They don't have universal conscription, but what they say is, the Minister of Defense issues an annual quota, say we need 10,000 school leavers for a year. They start with asking for volunteers. And people volunteer because they know that if they do conscription, firstly, they've got to be selected. So the MoD, the Army, Navy and Air Force will take the very best school leavers. Everybody registered. They'll look at their school reports and say, well, I want him, him, her and her, because they're the best. So they do their year's conscription, they then go on to university after that, and when they leave university and look for jobs because they've got, I did conscription on my cv. That's a badge of honor. Employers say, well, I want you. You did conscription. You must be better than him or her, because he or she didn't do conscription. You see what I mean? We don't. I think the natural British default setting, conscription, it's. It's hairy battle dress, peeling spuds in some Nissan hut in Catterick in a freezing wind. We've gotta be more intelligent than that. So I think we've gotta think about it. Now, the flip side of that is that we don't need the same sort of mass. I'm not sure warfare is bloody and it's Expensive and the Ukrainians are facing chronic shortages of manpower. But it's also true to say that with the sort of weapons and technology that characterize warfare today, you can be more economical with your manpower, use of robots, use of drones. You know, you're moving into a different world. But it's also a world where there is still a requirement for legacy equipment, guns, tanks, ships, planes, et cetera.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

Is there not also an argument that we are naturally negative about the concept of conscription, yet at the same time we talk about young people needing more resilience, about not putting themselves at the centre of their world and putting others first, about creating unity, about leaning into other people, about emotional intelligence, about self control, about, about the importance of hard work. Is there not an argument that actually conscription would deliver all of those things for young people who are leaving school in the uk?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

I think there is. I think citizen service is absolutely a concept we should be thinking about. I'm fully engaged in and I think that all those things, you know, you look at, I mean, I just look at the British army, our guys and girls, you know, they can come in as a, they might join as a 16 year old, go to Harrogate, they might come in as 18 year old. And let's be clear, some of them, you know, many of them come from some pretty difficult areas, you know, and life has been quite tough for them. If they do 22 years or maybe they do longer, they've grown as people and these are, you know, and they're quality people coming in, but my Goodness me, after 22 years they've become even more, you know, they're even greater. And I think you could come up, if you go down the Norwegian line of, say we'll have a quota that goes to the military, but you could as easily say we'll have a quota that goes to the nhs, we'll have a quota that goes to, oh, I don't know, farming or, you know, you name it, different sections of society. So that, Because I think, I think the notion of giving back is something that, I mean, I'm not one of those who says generation, whatever it's called nowadays. No, again and again and again in history, our young, British young people have risen to the challenge.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

We've always said, I think in history the current generation is the weakest. That's always been the narrative and it's nonsense.

[Richard (Retired British General)]

I don't subscribe.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

It's total nonsense.

[Richard (Retired British General)]

I think they're bloody brilliant, but they just have a different way of looking at things. So I think we've you know, but giving an opportunity to contribute will make, you know, stronger society, a more inclusive society. I mean, if you talk to people who did conscription in the 50s and 60s, you'd find. I mean, you talk about, you know, social, social. Everybody sort of getting together. You'd find. You'd find a chap from Eton bedding down in a barrack room next to a miner's son or a train. You get everybody and everybody mucking in together like that, I think, has got to be good for society.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

And is there a way, do you think, of finding a route to that, or do you think that the modern world, the modern way of thinking, the position that the government have at the moment just makes it something that is very unlikely to happen?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

Well, at the end of the day, it is a political decision and it's going to need political leadership and boldness. You know, Britain used to be the pacesetter in NATO. In Europe, we're no longer. Our allies will have been looking at what happened with H. Smith's Dragon and thinking, oh, my God, what has happened to the British military? And this is the problem that Prime Minister Starmer faces. Yeah, he's, I'm sure, saying and doing the right thing by saying to the Americans, no, we're not going to join this war of choice. It has not been authorized by the UN. This is not NATO Article 5. And we're not. We don't trust you and your strategic thinking because you haven't got a strategy and you haven't thought through the. So he's fair right there. But where he stands on really thin ice is the fact that the Americans and every other NATO ally knows that the British armed forces are not. I just don't have the oomph, the strength, the power. If he had strong and capable armed forces, as Maggie Thatcher did in 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait, she was able to deploy. And then John Major took over. We deployed really strong armed forces to the Gulf. We put into the desert a strong armored division, which I was a junior commander in it. And I remember meeting the American corps commander when I was working for General Guthrie after the war, and we went to America and he was meeting the guy who commanded it, and he said the British were absolutely. That first Division, First Armored Division was relentless. We were setting the pace in a way which the American divisions couldn't keep up with because we had such capability. That's all gone.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

Can we make people feel optimistic about the world at the moment? I mean, one of the things that we love to do on this Podcast, as you know, you've listened to Episodes, is we love to make people feel empowered, we love to remind them of their superpowers, we love to educate them and inform them, but we don't leave them feeling helpless.

[Richard (Retired British General)]

Absolutely. We can be optimistic because we've got people, you know, we've got, we've got the capabilities, we've got the genius of. You've just gotta look around the creativity and ideas and genius of British society, whether it's, you know, whether it's arts, whether it's media, whether it's sport, whether it's technology and you've really gotta look, I mean, just in a military context, some of the creativity and ideas going into tech startups that are producing some absolutely world class, you know, world class systems, military systems, it's all there. It just needs bold political leadership. So I think we as a population need to be making it 100% clear to our leaders that we expect bold decisions. We need to be given clear direction to meet the challenges. And we can meet those challenges, I've no doubt about it. But we've just got to force our leaders to lead properly.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

Are you ready for some quick fire questions? What are the three most important non negotiable behaviours, do you think?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

I'd say? Courage, integrity, respect for others. Very good.

[Jay (Co-Interviewer)]

What's the greatest piece of advice you've ever received and why?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

Don't die in a ditch for everything. Not advice I've always taken though.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

What's your biggest strength?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

You'd have to ask my wife, but she'd probably say stubbornness and determination.

[Jay (Co-Interviewer)]

And your greatest weakness?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

Stubbornness and determination. Leading with my chin.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

What advice would you give to a 12, 13 year old?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

You take the King's shilling, sign up as a soldier and it'll change your life for the better.

[Jay (Co-Interviewer)]

If you could go back to one moment of your life, what would it be and why?

[Richard (Retired British General)]

I'd go back to B Squadron, 14th 20th Kings Azars during Operation Granby in the desert 35 years ago. We were a brilliant team of blokes. It was exciting, it was challenging. It was. And it's particularly relevant now because that was a war that we fought 35 years ago with a clear strategy, proper resources, strong, bold political leadership and a limited aim which we succeeded with minimal casualties. So I think back on that as nobody wants to fight a war, but if you got a fight, that was the sort of war to fight.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

And finally, for people that have listened to this incredible conversation, what would you leave them thinking about? What a high Performance life looks like,

[Richard (Retired British General)]

I think it looks pretty, pretty ordinary really. You know, we are. Anybody who's high performance is a human. And I don't necessarily count myself, I can't begin to count myself among the luminaries and the people you've had on this. So I'm a bit surprised to be here. But no, it's about family. It's about strong family, close relationships, friendships and feet firmly anchored to the ground.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

Brilliant. Thank you so much.

[Richard (Retired British General)]

Thank you for having me,

[Damien (Interviewer)]

Damien.

[Jay (Co-Interviewer)]

Jay.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

I really enjoyed when Richard was talking about conscription in a weird way because I see so many people talking about the weakness of the modern generation and therefore they need something to toughen them up. Whereas actually the message he gave us there was the modern generation are amazing. They're talented, they're hardworking, they're creative,

[Richard (Retired British General)]

they

[Damien (Interviewer)]

have strong self esteem and mental strength, you know, all of the things that will actually make them brilliant additions to serving the nation. And this isn't about just getting loads of young people ready for war, this is about become a farmer for a year, work in the NHS for a year, contribute to society. And I think there is a huge benefit to having a period of your life where your contribution is more for others than it is for yourself. And, and I really enjoyed that part of the conversation.

[Jay (Co-Interviewer)]

Yeah, I did as well. I hadn't thought of conscription as anything other than being prepared for battle or the sort of physical preparation for fighting, but all the evidence tells us that, that, that like the psychology of the help is high. When you give something to other people, you feel better about yourself as well as helping other people feel better about themselves. So that idea of conscription and thinking about how do we give back to the society we belong to, I really enjoyed it. Was there any other bits you liked?

[Damien (Interviewer)]

Well, it reminded me of the fact that as parents to young children, as both of us are, our youngish children, we keep finding ways for them to sort of give back or to do things that mean they put other people first. And actually it did make me feel that national service is just the answer because not everyone is lucky enough to have parents pushing them down the road of trying to give to others. You know, and there's a. The world that young people are growing up in now is so self centered, it's so about personal success, it's so much about me, I think, to almost have something that's non negotiable and it's gonna come to you at some point in your early or late teens where you, you spend a year doing something for Someone else, I think's great. I think the other thing that stood out to me was when he spoke about the three pillars of a successful battle, which was to be spiritually ready, mentally ready, and physically ready. And I think, actually, as he said, this applies to leadership in real life as much as it applies to, you know, leadership in the military. And I think about, you know, something like creating high performance. You know, at the very beginning, the spiritual thing was for you and I, can we have conversations that leaves the world in a better place for our young people? And then it becomes about the mental element, which is how can we create a strategy that sends this as many places as possible? And when you look at the amount of effort now that we have to put into YouTube and the RSS feed and our thumbnails and our titles and our socials and try to play the game of the algorithm, we're kind of having to do that. And then the final one is a physical readiness. And both of us, you know, you and I and our guests and everyone that works on the show, we've all had to decide not to do other things, to do this. You know, nothing comes for free. So I can see exactly how there's a parallel with what he was speaking about there and the real world that we live in. What about you?

[Jay (Co-Interviewer)]

I love the techniques. I love the idea of having to make decisions under pressure, like the. The. Like the wargaming element of inviting somebody to come in and play the part of the people that you're going to be opposing.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

And did he challenge your thinking on anything?

[Jay (Co-Interviewer)]

Yeah, I think that bit there about the intuition, when he spoke about the idea that you can teach nine tenths of planning, but there's an element where you've just got to allow that freedom, that intuition, that experience, to be able to be part of the process. I really like that. I was surprised to hear a military leader like Richard admit that sometimes that is the difference that makes a difference.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

And also what he said about having a strong armed forces, it's like, why have we got strong armed forces? Are we going to war or something? No, we've got strong armed forces, so we don't go to war. And I think that is a way of thinking that maybe people need to understand as well.

[Jay (Co-Interviewer)]

Yeah, I thought it was really rich. I thought it was really balanced. You know, he was. He was insightful, but I was really taken by his humility.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

Yeah. And he's walked the walk. You know, I spend a lot of my time, as you know, on the Internet, on social media on YouTube, looking at other interviews and other bits of content, and the number of times I see people with a strong opinion about what we should do as a nation and they've never done it. Whereas this guy's walked the walk, therefore he can talk the talk. Thanks so much.

[Jay (Co-Interviewer)]

Enjoyed it as always.

[Damien (Interviewer)]

Me too. And I hope you enjoyed it as well. If you did, then there are loads of other military conversations which you can enjoy here on High Performance and loads of incredible leaders as well. So feel free to take a look there the back catalogue and find more of those. And if there was something in this conversation that you really think someone in your life would benefit from, please just ping it across to them, send them the clip, send them the whole show and just tell them that there is a show called High Performance which might be the one thing they need in their life. So thanks very much for watching and we'll see you again soon.

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[Richard (Retired British General)]

Par.

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[Damien (Interviewer)]

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[Richard (Retired British General)]

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