Geopolitical analyst Kamran Bokhari joins Jacob to break down the US/Israeli joint strike on Iran.

Is this regime change, or coercion? Bokhari argues the limited force deployment points to a "Venezuela model" - targeting IRGC hardliners while preserving moderate military figures to negotiate a nuclear deal. But... Has the moment for regime collapse has already passed? The two also explore the regional fallout: Kurdish mobilization, Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions, and the risk of Iranian state collapse cascading across Eurasia.

Timestamps:

(00:43) - Iran Response And Targets

(01:08) - Decapitation And Cyber Angle

(01:51) - US Firepower And Scale

(04:38) - Is This Regime Change

(07:06) - Why Not Full Invasion

(11:08) - Endgame And Negotiations

(12:36) - Backchannels And Limits

(16:05) - Advice To Trump

(19:45) - Regional Spillover Risks

(25:23) - What Happens Next

(30:06) - Wrap Up And Thanks

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.