Josh Linville,VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, chats with Jacob about the global fertilizer crisis triggered by disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. They cover why the Middle East dominates fertilizer supply, why the US can't easily fill the gap, which crops and regions are most at risk, and what farmers should do right now to protect themselves.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(01:15) - War Context and Stakes

(02:22) - Fertilizer 101 Big Three

(03:36) - Why Hormuz Matters

(04:55) - Middle East Gas Advantage

(06:12) - Why US Lags Production

(07:56) - Capacity Crunch Explained

(10:47) - China and State Strategy

(13:11) - Build Plants or Reserve

(16:25) - Investment Reality Check

(19:00) - Food Security Imperative

(21:18) - Seasonality and Timing

(23:36) - Global Impacts and Grain

(25:33) - Fertilizer Booking Gaps

(26:44) - Survey Skepticism

(28:59) - Global Risk Hotspots

(30:43) - Yield and Protein Impacts

(32:35) - Fertilizer Supercycles

(36:05) - New Normal or Oversupply

(39:47) - Pinch Points Russia

(41:38) - Beyond the Big Three

(43:19) - Organic Alternatives Limits

(46:33) - Carbon Premium Reality

(48:32) - Key Takeaways Farmers

(50:42) - Wrap Up and Credits

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.