Solo analysis from Jacob! Some reflection on being wrong about the Third Gulf War. Jacob outlines why he thought the war wouldn't happen - interceptor shortages, domestic politics, inflation risk, and explains what's shaken his analytical framework: the killing of moderate Iranian leaders, the appointment of a hardline Supreme Leader, the U.S. confusing firepower for strategy, and, of course, allies refusing to cooperate.

Timestamps:

(00:27) - Why No US Attack

(02:15) - Iran Geography Leverage

(02:56) - US Politics Inflation Risk

(05:19) - Noninterventionist Contradiction

(06:26) - War Starts Timebox Logic

(07:50) - Leadership Decapitation Fallout

(08:43) - Hardliners Take Over

(10:02) - Firepower Not Strategy

(11:32) - Ground Troops And Oil Moves

(12:43) - Allies China And Shipping

(15:06) - South Pars Escalation

(16:45) - Iran Presses Advantage

(17:36) - Is The Framework Broken

(18:17) - Foxes Hedgehogs Forecasting

(19:38) - White House Meme Strategy

(21:37) - Grim Outlook Food Shock

(23:08) - Wrap Up And Subscribe

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.