Iran expert Hamidreza Azizi joins Jacob Shapiro to break down the issues posed by Iran's blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Azizi explains Iran's phased strategy: take out US radar systems first, then threaten energy infrastructure. He also unpacks who's actually running Tehran right now, why China and Russia are quietly helping, and why no optimistic scenario exists for Iran's long-term future.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(00:41) - War Week Context

(01:56) - Reza Returns

(02:50) - How Long Can It Last

(08:02) - Damage and Endgames

(13:36) - Why Hit Gulf States

(18:15) - Energy and Strait Pressure

(21:39) - Can Iran Hit America

(24:12) - Cyber Limits

(26:26) - Who Runs Iran Now

(34:34) - Iran Power Centers

(37:31) - Ceasefire Off Ramp

(39:40) - Keeping US Out

(42:08) - China Strait Calculus

(45:27) - Russia China Intel Aid

(48:41) - Proxy War Limits

(57:09) - Iranian Public Mood

(01:04:24) - One Year Outlook

(01:06:25) - Closing Thanks

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.