Podcast Summary: The Jordan Harbinger Show – Episode 1134: Ukraine 2025 | Out of the Loop

Release Date: March 30, 2025

In episode 1134 of The Jordan Harbinger Show, host Jordan Harbinger engages in a deep dive with Ryan Macbeth, a frequent guest, to unpack the evolving geopolitical landscape surrounding the Ukraine conflict as of 2025. The conversation traverses the complexities of drone warfare, intelligence sharing, European defense strategies, and the broader implications for NATO and global stability.

1. Current State of the Ukraine Conflict

The episode opens with an update on the Ukraine war, highlighting the rapid changes and the myriad of conflicting news reports that make it challenging to discern factual information.

Jordan Harbinger addresses the fluid nature of the conflict, stating, "We're talking about drones and drone warfare, electronic warfare, jamming, intelligence sharing. Should we stop intelligence sharing? Did we stop intelligence sharing? Should we stop supplying weapons? Did we stop supplying weapons?" (01:21).

Ryan Macbeth adds, "Even I'm at the point where I'm like, which news is actually real? And which is just something I read on Reddit..." (07:31), emphasizing the difficulty in tracking accurate updates amidst misinformation.

2. Drone Warfare and Electronic Countermeasures

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the advancements and countermeasures in drone technology used in the conflict.

Jordan Harbinger explains the evolution of drones in Ukraine, noting the shift from the Baraktar TB2 drones used for surveillance and micro-munitions to more sophisticated, fiber-optic-controlled drones that are resistant to jamming (21:07). He illustrates the technical aspects of Controlled Reception Pattern Antennas (CRPA) chips, which enhance drone resistance to GPS jamming by detecting false signals (17:32).

Ryan Macbeth questions the practicality of wired drones, prompting Harbinger to elaborate on their one-way nature and the logistical challenges they pose in urban or foliage-rich environments (21:14).

3. Intelligence Sharing and Its Implications

The conversation delves into the strategic decisions surrounding intelligence sharing between the United States and Ukraine.

Jordan Harbinger reveals that the U.S. has resumed intelligence sharing with Ukraine after a temporary halt, acknowledging it as "not our proudest moment" (33:00). He emphasizes the critical role of continuous intelligence in preempting missile attacks and guiding defense mechanisms (32:34).

Ryan Macbeth expresses concern over the ethical implications, stating, "It seems a little unconscionable to be like, we're going to let tons more of your people die by not sharing this information" (33:00), highlighting the moral dilemmas faced by policymakers.

4. European Defense and NATO’s Role

A substantial discussion focuses on Europe's preparedness to defend itself and the role of NATO in the current geopolitical climate.

Jordan Harbinger posits that the U.S. is strategically reallocating military resources from Europe to prepare for a potential conflict with China in the late 2020s, suggesting that Europe should take greater responsibility for its defense (08:07). He critiques the efficiency of European weapon manufacturing, citing discrepancies in standardization and production capabilities (35:38).

Ryan Macbeth underscores the challenges Europe faces in scaling up defense production, questioning the feasibility of sudden increases in military manufacturing (35:48).

Harbinger responds by highlighting efforts in countries like Germany and Poland to ramp up production, albeit noting logistical and political hurdles (36:34).

5. Russia’s Strategic Posture and Internal Challenges

The episode examines Russia's military strategies and the potential internal issues that may arise from prolonged conflict.

Jordan Harbinger expresses concerns about Russia potentially collapsing internally by 2027-2028 due to attrition, leading to fragmented warlord states controlling nuclear arsenals (09:52). He warns of the dangers posed by dispersed nuclear weapons should central control falter (11:14).

Ryan Macbeth questions the sustainability of Russia's military efforts, noting the depletion of armored vehicles and ammunition over the years (04:14), while Harbinger explains the logistical strain on Russia's armored units and the shift to less conventional methods of warfare, such as using motorcycles for troop movements (10:22).

6. Technological Advancements and Supply Chain Dynamics

The dialogue touches upon the integration of Chinese technology in Russian missile systems and the broader implications for global trade and sanctions.

Jordan Harbinger discusses the incorporation of Chinese CRPA chips in Russian missile systems, which allows them to evade GPS jamming (17:30). He criticizes the lack of effective U.S. response to this technological transfer, highlighting the challenges in enforcing sanctions (19:03).

Ryan Macbeth reflects on the potential consequences of allowing such technology transfers, pondering the risks it poses to U.S. national security (19:49).

7. Prospects for Ceasefire and Future Conflict

The conversation navigates the complex and uncertain prospects for a ceasefire in Ukraine, considering both military and diplomatic factors.

Jordan Harbinger outlines possible scenarios for a ceasefire, including the establishment of demilitarized zones and the involvement of multinational peacekeeping forces (75:05). He emphasizes the precarious balance between enforcing ceasefire terms and preventing future escalations (74:42).

Ryan Macbeth expresses skepticism about the durability of such agreements, given Russia's perceived lack of incentive to halt its aggressive expansion (74:35).

8. Update on the Syrian Conflict

Towards the end of the episode, the discussion shifts to the ongoing situation in Syria, particularly the actions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the plight of the Alawite community.

Jordan Harbinger shares disturbing reports of HTS militants committing atrocities against Alawite civilians, including forced displacements and killings (76:16). He highlights the challenges in obtaining reliable information due to limited Western media presence in Syria (78:30).

Ryan Macbeth reflects on the human cost of the conflict, recognizing the complexities and historical grievances that fuel ongoing violence (77:49).

9. Geopolitical Analysis with Peter Zihan (Preview)

The episode concludes with a preview of an upcoming segment featuring geopolitical analyst Peter Zihan, who discusses the repercussions of decreased globalization and the impending disintegration of the European Union. Zihan predicts significant drops in agricultural output and rising global food supply issues, asserting that the final decade of the EU is fraught with challenges due to energy dependencies and demographic shifts (79:20).

Notable Quotes

• Jordan Harbinger [07:13]: "Why is Harry Potter so popular? Because kids have no agency... when you're one of these people who can't figure out why their life sucks so much, it's like reading Harry Potter."

• Ryan Macbeth [09:52]: "Really? Maybe that's so much sooner than I thought."

• Jordan Harbinger [11:14]: "If Russia takes over Ukraine, that's fine. If Ukraine kicks Russia out, that's fine. If Russia takes some of Ukraine's land and leaves the rest alone, that's fine as well."

• Jordan Harbinger [21:07]: "These fiber optic drones are one-way attack drones... now we're talking 30 miles of range of wire."

• Ryan Macbeth [33:00]: "We're going to let tons more of your people die by not sharing this information."

• Jordan Harbinger [35:38]: "France makes its own equipment because it's France; they've decided to be independent from the get-go."

• Jordan Harbinger [44:56]: "Day by day."

Conclusion

Episode 1134 offers a comprehensive analysis of the multifaceted Ukraine conflict, emphasizing the interplay between technological advancements, military strategies, and geopolitical maneuvering. Jordan Harbinger and Ryan Macbeth provide insightful perspectives on the implications for Europe, NATO, and global stability, underscoring the urgency for informed strategies in an increasingly complex international landscape.

Timestamp Reference:

• [00:00] to [08:07]: Introductory segments and advertisements.
• [08:07] to [79:14]: Main conversation between Jordan Harbinger and Ryan Macbeth.
• [79:20] to [81:24]: Preview and closing remarks.

Note: Timestamps correspond to the transcript provided and may not reflect the actual podcast episode structure.