Podcast Summary: The Jordan Harbinger Show - Episode 1180: Dean Spears | The Quiet Apocalypse of Global Depopulation

Introduction

In Episode 1180 of The Jordan Harbinger Show, host Jordan Harbinger engages in a compelling conversation with Dean Spears, author of After the Spike: Population Decline and the Great Recession. The episode delves into the provocative thesis that the world is heading towards a significant population decline—a scenario that, contrary to popular belief, may not bode well for humanity. Spears argues that depopulation could lead to reduced innovation, economic stagnation, and challenges in addressing global issues like climate change.

1. The Population Crash Argument

Dean Spears introduces his core argument, asserting that global depopulation is the most probable future scenario. He emphasizes that this decline is not merely a demographic shift but a profound transformation with far-reaching consequences.

“The population is a huge ship, slow to turn. If you have a kid today, they're going to be deciding whether or not to have a kid in, say, three 30 years, right? And 30 years from now is when decarbonization needs to be well underway or maybe done right.”
— Dean Spears [00:49]

2. Historical Population Trends

Spears provides a historical perspective, highlighting that for much of human history, population growth was minimal. It wasn't until advancements in sanitation, healthcare, and nutrition a few centuries ago that populations began to surge exponentially.

“For centuries, the population's been growing fast. And all the while, living standards around the world have been improving.”
— Dean Spears [04:27]

He projects that this rapid growth, referred to as the "spike," is nearing its end within the lifetime of current generations, potentially leading to a sharp decline in population numbers.

3. Timing and Policy Misalignment

A critical point Spears makes is the misalignment between the timeline of population decline and the urgent actions required to combat climate change. He contends that population reduction will not occur swiftly enough to alleviate the immediate pressures of environmental degradation.

“The timing of population decline just doesn't line up with the urgency of what needs to happen on climate change.”
— Dean Spears [19:56]

4. Challenges in Increasing Birth Rates

The conversation shifts to policy measures aimed at increasing birth rates, which Spears argues have historically been ineffective. He cites examples like China's one-child policy and various government incentives worldwide that have failed to reverse declining fertility rates.

“Of the 26 countries that we can see in the data, lifetime birth rates have ever fallen below 1.9, averaging over a woman's lifetime. None of them ever have gone back up above 2 yet, so 0 for 26.”
— Dean Spears [10:30]

5. Environmental Impact

Addressing common concerns, Spears discusses the relationship between population size and environmental impact. While more people do contribute to increased pollution, he argues that technological advancements and policy changes have historically mitigated environmental degradation despite population growth.

“We’ve addressed environmental problems before by changing what people do, implementing new laws, implementing new technologies.”
— Dean Spears [14:43]

6. Counterarguments to Population Control

Spears challenges the simplistic notion that reducing population alone can solve global issues. He emphasizes that human ingenuity and societal advancements have historically overcome resource constraints through innovation rather than merely reducing population numbers.

“It's not just the rare geniuses or luminaries working in one place. It's something that gets widely shared.”
— Dean Spears [58:04]

7. The Role of Ideas and Innovation

A pivotal theme of the discussion is the intrinsic link between population size and innovation. Spears posits that a larger population fosters a greater generation of ideas, leading to technological and scientific breakthroughs essential for societal progress.

“Depopulation will result in fewer ideas, fewer innovations and bouts of creativity. Then we won't be making the same sort of progress towards higher living standards.”
— Dean Spears [59:36]

He illustrates this with the example of oral rehydration salts developed in Bangladesh, which transformed global health outcomes without being depleted by use.

“Ideas and knowledge have this property that they get used, but they don't get used up.”
— Dean Spears [47:24]

8. AI's Potential Role

The conversation touches upon the role of Artificial Intelligence in compensating for a declining population. While acknowledging AI's potential to enhance productivity, Spears remains skeptical that it can fully replace the nuanced contributions of a diverse human population.

“Nobody knows exactly how productive AI is going to be... making humans more productive is something that we need in a future with AI.”
— Dean Spears [60:35]

9. Implications for Economic Growth and Sustainability

Spears discusses how population decline could hinder economic growth and sustainability efforts. He argues that a stable or growing population is crucial for maintaining the workforce and fueling economic activities that drive societal advancements.

“If we're on a path to depopulation and there aren't enough other people, then some of the discoveries that we could come up with won't happen.”
— Dean Spears [50:36]

10. The Future and Stability vs Depopulation

Spears emphasizes the need for a balanced approach—aiming for population stabilization rather than unchecked growth or decline. He highlights the complexity of achieving this balance, noting that it requires profound social changes and consensus-building.

“Ultimately you'd need the birth rate to be about an average of 2 for the population to stabilize.”
— Dean Spears [43:00]

11. Conclusion

Dean Spears concludes by underscoring the importance of recognizing and addressing the impending challenges of global depopulation. He advocates for societal shifts that make parenting more feasible and equitable, thereby encouraging stable birth rates without coercive policies.

“Other people make the discoveries from that we can use... We won't be on the same path to an abundant future.”
— Dean Spears [47:24]

Key Takeaways

• Global Depopulation is Imminent: Spears predicts a significant decline in global population within the next few decades, driven by consistently falling birth rates worldwide.

• Ineffectiveness of Current Policies: Government incentives to increase birth rates have largely failed, as seen in various international attempts.

• Innovation Depends on Population: A robust population fosters innovation and economic growth, which are essential for addressing global challenges.

• Technological Solutions are Insufficient: While AI and other technologies can enhance productivity, they cannot fully compensate for the loss of human ingenuity and collaborative progress.

• Need for Societal Change: To stabilize the population, profound changes in societal attitudes towards parenting and gender roles are necessary, making child-rearing more feasible and equitable.

Dean Spears presents a thought-provoking perspective that challenges conventional wisdom on population dynamics, urging listeners to reconsider the long-term implications of declining global populations.