The Jordan Harbinger Show

Out of the Loop: Venezuela (Episode 1269, January 11, 2026)

Main Theme

This episode dives deep into the complicated story of Venezuela's political, economic, and social meltdown. Host Jordan Harbinger and recurring guest Ryan McBeth unpack how a resource-rich nation became a cautionary tale, why it matters to Americans today, and what could come next after the dramatic removal of Nicolas Maduro.

Episode Overview

• Topic: Venezuela's collapse – history, the rise and fall of Chavez and Maduro, the oil curse, current power structures, foreign influence, and U.S. intervention.
• Purpose: To move beyond headlines about "socialism and oil" and explain how deep institutional rot, global politics, and criminal networks created a disaster that now has major global repercussions.
• Notable Context: The episode was recorded days after the U.S.-led operation that captured Maduro.

Key Segments & Discussion Points

[00:46] – Introduction and Why Venezuela Matters

• Jordan sets up the context: Venezuela is more than just "oil and socialism." Its collapse has ripple effects: energy security, migration, regional crime, and great-power rivalry.
• Quote:

  "Venezuela is not just a tragedy. It’s energy, migration, transnational crime, and great power chess sitting uncomfortably close to the Panama Canal—with China and Russia sniffing around like it’s an open house."
  – Jordan Harbinger, [01:56]

[03:30] – Venezuela’s Origin Story

• Ryan recaps the country’s history—from colonization to independence as part of Gran Colombia under Bolivar, to the caudillo era, then the discovery of oil in the 1920s, and initial wealth.
• “Venezuela actually means little Venice—Spanish explorers saw houses on stilts in the water.” – Ryan, [03:52]

[05:07] – Rise of Chavez and the “Bolivarian Revolution”

• Chavez, a failed coup leader, is later elected in 1998, bringing populist reforms, rewriting the Constitution, and promising redistribution of oil wealth.
• The "Bolivarian Revolution": mix of social welfare, state control, and anti-elite rhetoric.
• Initial tangible benefits but with underlying flaws.
• Quote:

  "For a lot of people, it brought tangible benefits—until one day it kind of didn’t."
  – Ryan, [06:07]

[06:22] – The Oil Curse (Dutch Disease) and Economic Meltdown

• Sudden oil wealth leads to overdependence and lack of diversification.
• When oil prices collapse in 2010, the result is hyperinflation, shortages, and mass emigration.
• "Dutch disease is when you discover oil, start social programs, and it's fine until the price of that commodity suddenly collapses." – Ryan, [06:38]

[07:44] – Why Americans Should Care

• Venezuela’s geography and China/Russia/Iran influence give it huge strategic value, especially with looming potential over Taiwan/China conflicts.
• "If Venezuela, leaning towards China and Russia, is filled up with Chinese weapons, then it becomes a very strategic location…" – Ryan, [08:05]
• Analogy: "They could become like the Houthis of the Panama Canal." – Jordan, [09:09]

[12:07] – Venezuela’s Military: Internal Security, Not Defense

• Venezuelan military described as an "internal security army," designed to keep the regime in power, not outdoor defense.
• Comparison between internal security, palace guard, and expeditionary armies.

[13:26 – 15:28] – Oil Exports and Foreign Influence

• Venezuela sends 80-90% of its oil to China, which is only 4% of China's imports but crucial for Venezuela.
• Impact of oil cutoff for Cuba: "90% of Cuba’s oil came from Venezuela—now, with brownouts, power’s only on for a couple hours a day." – Ryan, [14:14]
• Decline in Cuban cigars’ quality as a metaphor for economic desperation.

[16:20] – Reality of Life Under Maduro

• The regime survives through repression, criminal gangs (colectivos), and corruption.
• "It was literally that hard to find food…people were choosing to lay in bed all day so they didn’t expend any calories." – Ryan, [16:20]
• Quote:

  "Colectivos… are motorcycle gangs with guns that are sponsored by the Maduro government…just bad news."
  – Jordan & Ryan, [17:05–18:29]

[19:10] – Mass Emigration as a Safety Valve

• Approx. 24% of Venezuelans have left since the late '90s.
• "Maduro saw this as a safety valve. Let those people leave. They can send money back home. That makes me even less accountable." – Ryan, [19:10]

Key Historical Moments & Timeline

| Time (MM:SS) | Event / Discussion | |--------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:52 | Venezuela’s colonial/independence background, Bolivar, Gran Colombia | | 05:07 | Discovery of oil, path to democracy | | 05:10 | 1992 Chavez coup, failed—gets elected in 1998 | | 06:32 | Dutch disease: oil → social programs → crash | | 07:44 | US-Chinese strategic context—why Venezuela matters globally | | 09:09 | Panama Canal vulnerability analogy (“the Houthis of the Panama Canal”) | | 13:26 | 80–90% of Venezuelan oil to China; Cuba’s dependence | | 16:20 | Life in Venezuela—hyperinflation, laying in bed to avoid starvation | | 17:05 | Colectivos (armed thug gangs) |

Chavez and Maduro: Personality & Power

Hugo Chávez

• Cultivated a populist, strongman image; had a weekly, unscripted TV show "Aló Presidente".
• "He would go on and chat with people and sing songs and dance and chat about whatever and he just performed and he just entertained people. This is the president of the country." – Jordan, [20:02]
• Used charisma for power, but also packed courts and restricted gun ownership.

Maduro's Rise

• Former bus driver and union organizer, selected by Chavez to succeed him.
• Quote:

  "At some point, when you see all of that oil money… I can certainly see how that might push someone's beliefs more toward kleptocracy."
  – Ryan, [24:49]

[29:04] – Daily Life: Bureaucracy, Corruption, and Scarcity

• Hyperinflation (over 800%) ravages wages, causes mass shortages (e.g., toilet paper scenario explained).
• Corruption turns into an everyday necessity – bribes grease even basic services.
• "It makes it a lot harder to go protest… I can’t protest against the government; I gotta wait in line for food." – Ryan, [31:23]

[32:00] – The Oil Curse: Lack of Accountability

• Oil income removes government accountability to citizens.
• "If there’s no incentive to be accountable to the taxpayer...all you really need is labor and a small elite to keep things running. The rest—you don’t really need a robust middle class." – Ryan, [32:21]

[35:57] – Rusty Oil Rigs, Decayed Industry

• Despite top global reserves, Venezuela produces less than a million barrels/day.
• Leaders have no incentive to reinvest in infrastructure: "Why would you reinvest…when you could take that money? Because one of two things is going to happen… you die, you get deposed, maybe you escape." – Ryan, [36:12]

[39:56] – U.S. Military Operation to Capture Maduro

• Discussion of the recent (fictionalized) U.S. special forces raid that captured Maduro.
• Analysis of air defenses, military readiness, Russia's S-300 systems.
• "They were prepared for an invasion from Curacao or Turks and Caicos, not from the United States." – Ryan, [43:22]

[45:30] – U.S. Special Forces: Relentless Precision

• U.S. operation was successful because of intelligence, training, and technical superiority.
• "These guys really are the best of the best." – Ryan, [45:30]
• "They knew exactly where [Maduro] was, what he had for breakfast, his pets, his routines—everything. That was a close call" – Jordan, [45:30]

[49:06] – What’s Next for Venezuela?

• Delsey Rodríguez (technocrat, VP) left in charge; parallels to U.S. mistakes in Iraq/Afghanistan.
• "If Gonzalez and Machado walk off the C17 escorted by Marines, the Venezuelan army… [will] consider them to be American puppets." – Ryan, [50:44]
• The U.S. ideally learned not to install exiles as figurehead rulers.

[54:00+] – Legal, Political, and Global Repercussions

• Mixed public reactions: Is it just about oil? Is it a dangerous precedent?
• Missing Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) is a constitutional concern.
• "That sets a really bad precedent… the next guy… might actually do that… Congress has been asleep at the wheel." – Ryan, [57:18]

[64:59] – Venezuela’s Future: Scenarios

Best Case:

• Managed transition, security forces remain intact, free & fair elections with American/foreign observers, and slow reforms.

Worst Case:

• Power vacuum, colectivos (narco-gangs) become warlords, country fragments into fiefdoms (Libya scenario).
• "You’re not going to see a civil war…but I can see it turning into Libya, with all these fiefdoms run by warlords, most likely narco-warlords." – Ryan, [65:42]

Public Sentiment:

• Many Venezuelans celebrating; some are worried about instability, especially older and risk-averse citizens.
• "If you’re an elderly pensioner, you’re probably going to fear instability…especially if consumer goods start flooding back…and you see prices rise." – Ryan, [67:28]

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• "Dutch disease is this concept where when you suddenly discover oil…a lot of times they start spreading it around…until the price of that commodity suddenly collapses." – Ryan, [06:38]
• "It was literally that hard to find food. People were choosing to lay in bed all day so they didn't expend any calories…" – Ryan, [16:20]
• "[Colectivos]…are motorcycle gangs with guns that are sponsored by the Maduro government. They…intimidate people so they don't protest." – Ryan, [17:05]
• "You get what you pay for…if you’re not constantly training like [US Special Forces], you’re just not going to see that level of performance." – Ryan, [62:22]
• "Venezuela…it's about oil but not necessarily about Venezuela's oil—it's about our oil and keeping our back door secure as the world faces new conflicts." – Ryan, [09:58]
• "For 25 years, Venezuela has been socialist. You have people who've never seen democracy…so there's a wide range of reactions right now." – Ryan, [67:28]
• "The Pottery Barn rule that Colin Powell mentioned—you break it, you own it. And Venezuela might be able to take care of themselves, but Cuba is a basket case." – Ryan, [73:36]

Final Takeaway

Venezuela didn’t collapse because of one villain or policy. Oil rents replaced accountability, institutions hollowed out, competence gave way to loyalty, and when the money dried up, the regime compensated with repression. For the U.S., Venezuela is a new pressure point—energy, migration, crime, and rival influence, all at America’s doorstep.

Jump to These Key Segments

• 03:52 — Venezuela’s history and oil discovery
• 05:07 — Hugo Chávez’s rise
• 06:38 — Dutch disease and the oil curse
• 09:12 — Venezuela’s strategic value for the U.S./China conflict
• 13:26 — Oil exports and Cuba’s fate
• 16:20 — Daily life and the colectivos nightmare
• 29:04 — Hyperinflation and corruption
• 35:57 — Oil infrastructure decay
• 45:30 — U.S. raid on Maduro (analysis)
• 50:44 — Why the U.S. shouldn’t install exiles as leaders
• 65:42 — Likely outcomes: managed transition vs. chaos

Tone & Style

• Informal, conversational, humorous ("We're going to have to talk about that after the show. I might need [a cigar draw tester]...for reasons." – Jordan, [15:28])
• Deeply researched, practical, rooted in analogies and historical context
• Critical but fair to all parties—even calling out U.S. procedural failings

This summary covers the full scope and mood of the episode, providing essential takeaways, context, and memorable moments, alongside timestamps for deeper dives.