A Fragile Cease-Fire Deal in Gaza

Summary

Podcast Summary: "A Fragile Cease-Fire Deal in Gaza"
The Journal
Release Date: January 16, 2025
Hosts: Kate Linebaugh, Ryan Knutson, Jessica Mendoza
Produced by: The Wall Street Journal & Gimlet, in collaboration with Spotify

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Introduction: A Historic Ceasefire Announcement

In the latest episode of The Journal, host Ryan Knudsen delves into the recent announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas after over a year of intense conflict in Gaza. This tentative agreement has sparked both celebrations and apprehensions across the region. Knudsen sets the stage by highlighting the fragile nature of the deal, noting that while Hamas and negotiators from Qatar and Egypt have proclaimed the agreement, it remains unapproved by Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has voiced skepticism, accusing Hamas of not adhering to certain terms, a claim Hamas officials have dismissed as unfounded (00:07).

Details of the Ceasefire Deal

Anat Pelid, a correspondent based in Tel Aviv, provides an in-depth breakdown of the ceasefire agreement. The deal is structured into three distinct phases:

1. Phase One: Temporary Ceasefire

   • Hostage Exchange: 33 Israeli hostages will be swapped for an equivalent number of Palestinian prisoners.
   • Pelid clarifies the extent of hostages involved, stating, "We have 94 hostages who were taken on October 7th who remain in Gaza, including over 30 that have been confirmed dead by Israel based on intelligence" (03:02). Additionally, four hostages from before October 7th are part of the negotiations, bringing the total to 98.

2. Phase Two: Negotiation for Permanent Peace

   • This phase focuses on establishing a lasting end to the conflict and securing the release of any remaining hostages. Pelid acknowledges the complexities involved, explaining, "Stage two is going to be super tricky... Hamas has said, we will not free the hostages unless you commit to ending the war" (04:24).

3. Phase Three: Rebuilding Gaza

   • The final stage aims at the reconstruction and rehabilitation of Gaza, addressing the extensive damage caused by the prolonged conflict.

Reactions to the Deal

In Israel:

The announcement has been met with mixed reactions. While some express relief, there is significant anxiety among hostage families who fear previous promises have fallen through. Pelid notes, "There's a lot of anxiety in the air. People are afraid that they've been let down before and they say that they will believe it when they see it" (06:16). Additionally, smaller protests have emerged, comprising hundreds of individuals opposing the deal, though large-scale celebrations are notably absent compared to Gaza.

In Gaza:

Contrasting the Israeli sentiment, Gaza's reception has been overwhelmingly positive. After enduring relentless airstrikes and a devastating land invasion, the people of Gaza have erupted in celebrations. Pelid describes the scene: "Parts of the Strip have been just decimated... we've seen just celebrations. Like people just so happy that this is coming through" (06:49). This joy is tempered by the daunting task ahead, as residents brace themselves for the aftermath of destruction and the challenges of rebuilding.

Negotiation Dynamics: Key Players and Influences

The negotiation process has been tumultuous, with key figures such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar playing pivotal roles. Pelid explains, "These two men have been tough negotiators, kind of going head to head, not agreeing" (08:01). Various barriers, including stringent demands from both sides and allegations of sabotage, have previously stalled progress.

A significant turning point in the negotiations was the impact of former President Donald Trump’s involvement, dubbed the "Trump effect." Trump publicly set a deadline for the deal to be completed by January 20th, exerting pressure on both Israel and Hamas. Pelid remarks, "The fact that he said this very publicly, I think really put new energy into the negotiations and made them get through the finish line" (09:24).

Furthermore, President-elect Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, contributed to the negotiations despite Trump not yet having taken office. Pelid attributes part of the deal’s progress to Witkoff’s determination, stating, "He really brought new energy that kind of help this get it through" (10:37).

Current Status and Future Prospects

Despite the announcement, the ceasefire is not yet in effect. Israel has yet to officially approve the deal, pending votes in the security cabinet and the government. Pelid outlines the procedural delays: "Netanyahu has not presented the public yet with a ceasefire... it still needs to pass two votes... and then it can go into effect" (11:41). Additionally, disagreements persist over specific details, such as the release of high-profile political prisoners and the maintenance of Israeli forces in certain Gaza areas (12:24).

Implications for Gaza and Reconstruction Efforts

The ceasefire marks a pivotal moment for Gaza’s residents, who have long yearned for peace. Pelid emphasizes the dual sentiment of joy and the daunting reconstruction ahead: "They've just been waiting for this... but also the reconstruction of the Strip is a huge question, only going to come at phase three of the deal" (13:11). The immediate future will involve searching for missing loved ones, salvaging homes, and initiating the rebuilding process amidst widespread devastation.

Expert Insights: Sustainability of the Ceasefire

Looking ahead, Pelid raises critical concerns about the durability of the ceasefire. Drawing parallels to a previous temporary ceasefire in November 2023 that lasted only a week, she questions, "Will the ceasefire go past phase one?" (14:03). The success of the initial phase hinges on both sides' willingness to continue negotiating beyond the temporary truce, with significant apprehensions about Israel's long-term commitment to the agreement.

Conclusion: A Moment of Fragility and Hope

The episode concludes with a reflection on the precarious nature of the ceasefire. While Phase One represents a significant achievement, the path forward remains fraught with challenges. The international community and the people of Gaza hold their breath, hoping that this fragile agreement can pave the way for lasting peace and reconstruction.

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Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Knudsen (00:07): "So we seem to have an agreement for a ceasefire, but do you think we really have an end to this war?"

• Anat Pelid (01:05): "We have a pathway to the end to the war... but we need to see if the players will decide to go through with it."

• Anat Pelid (03:21): "Over 30, at least. We understand that that number is higher..."

• Anat Pelid (04:24): "An end to the fighting, permanent ceasefire has been a huge barrier in these negotiations."

• Anat Pelid (09:58): "It's a really tough question because I think the Biden administration has been in the thick of this for so many months..."

• Anat Pelid (13:11): "They've dreamed of this. They just have been waiting for this."

Final Thoughts

A Fragile Cease-Fire Deal in Gaza offers a comprehensive analysis of the recent truce between Israel and Hamas, highlighting the complexities and uncertainties that lie ahead. Through expert insights and on-the-ground reporting, The Journal provides listeners with a nuanced understanding of a conflict that continues to shape the geopolitical landscape.

Transcript

[Ryan Knudsen]

Yesterday, after more than a year of devastating war in Gaza, a ceasefire was announced between Israel and Hamas. News of the deal prompted celebrations in the rubble filled streets of Gaza and relief in Israel. But the ceasefire isn't a done deal yet. The agreement was announced by Hamas and by us, Qatari and Egyptian negotiators, but Israel hasn't officially approved it. Israeli officials delayed a vote on the deal, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accused Hamas of reneging on parts of the agreement. A Hamas official told a news outlet that Netanyahu's accusation was baseless. The drama underscored how tenuous this historic deal is. So we seem to have an agreement for a ceasefire, but do you think we really have an end to this war?

[Anat Pelid]

That's a really good question. We have a pathway to the end to the war. That's what I would say. We have some sort of kind of ladder to pull us out of all of the mud that we're in at the moment. But we need to see if the players will decide to go through with it.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Welcome to the Journal, our show about money, business and power. I'm Ryan knudsen. It's Thursday, January 16th. Coming up on the show, a fragile ceasefire deal in Gaza.

[Tim Higgins]

I'm Tim Higgins with the Wall Street Journal. We've got the spot to hear directly from the leaders behind the Bold Name companies we cover every day. Check out our new series Bold Names in the Tech news briefing feed from the Wall Street Journal.

[Ryan Knudsen]

The planned deal between Israel and Hamas is set to go into effect on Sunday. It would proceed in three phases. The first phase is a temporary ceasefire. As part of this phase, 33 Israeli hostages will be exchanged for a number of Palestinian prisoners. During phase two, there will be a negotiation about a permanent end to the war and the release of any remaining living hostages. The third phase focuses on rebuilding Gaza.

[Anat Pelid]

This deal has a lot of details, a lot of stumbling stones that the sides are going to reach pretty quickly. Not everything has been already worked out.

[Ryan Knudsen]

That's our colleague Anat Pelid, who's based in Tel Aviv. She's been covering the negotiations. How many hostages are left and what do we know about the hostages that they say that'll be released?

[Anat Pelid]

Yeah. So we have 94 hostages who were taken on October 7th who remain in Gaza, including over 30 that have been confirmed dead by Israel based on intelligence. We also have another four hostages from before October 7th included in Israel's count, and they're negotiating over them as well. So we have 98 total hostages.

[Ryan Knudsen]

And so just to understand, there are 98 total hostages and roughly 30 of them are dead.

[Anat Pelid]

Over 30, at least. We understand that that number is higher. Privately, Israeli and American officials believe that this number is much higher. But we're going to see a group of 33 hostages under humanitarian category. So kind of the most vulnerable people. You know, we have injured elderly women and. Yeah. And dead bodies. And so they're going to be coming out after 15 months of captivity.

[Ryan Knudsen]

And is Israel going to release any Palestinian prisoners?

[Anat Pelid]

Israel is going to release Palestinian prisoners. It has thousands of Palestinian prisoners in its prisons. It also detained thousands of prisoners from Gaza throughout the war and in the attack into Israel on October 7th.

[Ryan Knudsen]

And what about stage two, which sounds like possibly the most difficult stage, which is actually negotiating a permanent end to the war rather than just the temporary one.

[Anat Pelid]

Yeah, stage two is going to be super tricky. So for many months we've had a big problem, and that is that Israel has wanted to free its hostages, but has not wanted to end the war. And Hamas has said, we will not free the hostages unless you commit to ending the war. So an end to the fighting, permanent ceasefire has been a huge barrier in these negotiations. And that's kind of phase one lets us kind of ease into that. And the negotiations only start on day 16 of that. Phase two is going to be really tricky. We already have far right politicians in Israel who oppose going to phase two from the beginning, and they have threatened to quit the ruling coalition over that.

[Ryan Knudsen]

I know that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been very insistent that, as have other Israeli politicians, that they want total victory over Hamas. So does this deal allow for Hamas to continue to exist?

[Anat Pelid]

Yeah, that's a really good question. That's one of the biggest questions that remain open. Israel set out to destroy Hamas as also a fighting and military power, but also as a ruling power. There is no alternative to it right now. Basically, you have a few options on the table that we hear from Israeli officials, which, you know, could be either Israel takes over as a military occupier, it could be that Hamas continues ruling, or you have some, you know, the Palestinian Authority coming in. The problem is that Israel has ruled out all three options. So Netanyahu and people close to him would say, you know, we can't propose any kind of alternative until Hamas is destroyed. And now would be that moment. Now we need to see what's going to happen.

[Ryan Knudsen]

So you're in Tel Aviv. What's the reaction been like in Israel?

[Anat Pelid]

So I think from my conversations with hostage families, there's a Lot of anxiety in the air. People are afraid that they've been let down before and they say that they will believe it when they see it. We also have opponents to the deal in Israel, so we have had some smaller protests. Hundreds of people who opposed the deal and have taken to the streets. But it hasn't been very large numbers. But yeah, so I don't think you're seeing the same images of celebrations as you're seeing coming out of Gaza. It's a bit different here.

[Ryan Knudsen]

What are you seeing in Gaza right now?

[Anat Pelid]

So the Gaza enclave has been through just a devastating air campaign, a land invasion. Parts of, of the Strip have been just decimated. There's just, you know, in Jabalia, we've seen photos where it's just rubble. So we've seen just celebrations. Like people just so happy that this is coming through. Waiting for this for so long.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Coming up, why a deal came together now and can it last?

[Anat Pelid]

Foreign.

[Christopher Mims]

I'm Christopher Mims of the Wall Street Journal. Every day we talk to the leaders behind Bold Name companies and you can hear from them in our new series, Bold Names in the Tech news briefing feed from the Wall Street Journal.

[Ryan Knudsen]

For months, Israel and Hamas had failed to reach a ceasefire deal. And many blamed the leaders of the two sides. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the head of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar.

[Anat Pelid]

These two men have been tough negotiators, kind of going head to head, not agreeing. At certain points it seemed close. You know, we thought that we were going to reach a deal and, you know, sometimes it was, you know, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu just insisting on certain things. And, you know, sometimes we would hear from mediators and Israeli negotiators that he was sabotaging a deal. Other times Hamas would make very difficult demands and or Sinwar would go quiet. We've had all kinds of barriers, but.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Since then, a lot has changed. In October, Israeli forces killed Sinwar, weakening Hamas, and Israel also scored major victories against Hamas allies like Hezbollah and Lebanon.

[Anat Pelid]

So you have all these moments that kind of came together and weakened Hamas and that made Hamas, I think, understand that it had to make some serious concessions in the negotiations. And then we had another factor that was very important. And I would say that's the Trump effect. The Trump effect is basically the fact that Trump was able to put more pressure on both sides on Hamas, but also very importantly on Israel on Netanyahu. And basically we saw that Trump said very publicly he gave a deadline, he said, I want this deal done by January 20th. When I take office, or all hell.

[Donald Trump]

Will break loose if those hostages aren't back. I don't want to hurt your negotiation. If they're not back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East. Can you elaborate? And it will not be good for Hamas and it will not be good, frankly, for anyone. All hell will break out.

[Anat Pelid]

Now, people don't know exactly what the all hell will break loose means when you actually ask them, but the fact that he said this very publicly, I think really put new energy into the negotiations and made them get through the finish line.

[Ryan Knudsen]

And also President elect Trump's Middle east envoy, Steve Witkoff, played a role in these negotiations. How is he able to be involved if Trump still hasn't taken office yet?

[Anat Pelid]

Yeah. So the Biden administration worked closely with Trump people in these negotiations. So real estate mogul turned Middle east envoy Steve Witkoff met with Netanyahu on Saturday. He made it very clear that he wanted to get this done. What I have heard from his meetings between him and hostage families is that they got the impression he was very serious, wanted to get this done. So he really brought new energy that kind of help this get it through.

[Ryan Knudsen]

During a press conference on Wednesday, a reporter asked Biden whether he or Trump could take credit for reaching this deal. Thank you.

[Anat Pelid]

Credit for this, Mr. President. You or Trump?

[Ryan Knudsen]

Is that a joke? Oh, thank you. So Trump has also taken credit for this deal on Truth Social. Biden clearly seems to disagree with that. But does Trump actually deserve some credit here?

[Anat Pelid]

It's a really tough question because I think the Biden administration has been in the thick of this for so many months, and it's been grueling negotiations that have seemed impossible many times. So I think the Biden administration does deserve a lot of credit. But Trump's pressure, his deadline, the fact that he was able to pressure Israel more effectively, and also Hamas, I think helped get it done.

[Ryan Knudsen]

So this deal was agreed to and announced on Wednesday, but the drama isn't quite over yet. Can you describe what's happened since this announcement was made?

[Anat Pelid]

Yeah, the journey isn't quite over. So at this moment, we have the us, Qatar, Egypt and Hamas announcing that they have reached an agreement for a ceasefire. Israel has not yet announced that. So what is happening is that Netanyahu has not presented the public yet with a ceasefire, made an argument for it, and it still needs to pass two votes, so one in the security Cabinet and then the government. And there needs to be another period of around 24 hours for people to Petition against it to the Supreme Court and then it can go into effect. But so far we haven't had a vote yet. So this is causing a lot of anxiety, I would say.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Why is Israel delaying? What's the holdup?

[Anat Pelid]

So we are hearing that there are some problems in the negotiating room about details. So, for example, from Hamas side, bringing up names of high profile political prisoners that they want released, from the Israeli side, saying that they want to maintain forces in certain areas in Gaza. We still do think it could be resolved. We're kind of just following all the political things that are happening right now around us today.

[Ryan Knudsen]

Netanyahu's office said in a statement that negotiations were continuing and that a deal would be announced once they were complete. Arab mediators said they were working to resolve the remaining issues, including a disagreement over which Palestinian prisoners Israel would release. What does this deal mean for the future of the people in Gaza?

[Anat Pelid]

Yeah, I think this is a huge moment for the people of Gaza. They've dreamed of this. They, they've just been waiting for this. I think just joy, first reaction and then I think it's going to be the start of a whole new journey. Search for answers. So, you know, there's a lot of people missing in Gaza, so people are going to be looking through the rubble, finding loved ones. They're going to be going back to search for their homes, many of them which no longer exist. So I think, yeah, the reconstruction of the Strip is a huge question, only going to come at phase three of the deal. But I think that there's just, it's the end to really a devastating military campaign.

[Ryan Knudsen]

So what are your biggest questions as we head into this ceasefire?

[Anat Pelid]

I think the biggest question is will the ceasefire go past phase one? Phase one is already a huge achievement. The only kind of comparable thing we've seen is a ceasefire in November 2023, which lasted a week, fell apart when both sides accused each other of breaking the terms. Saw a release of over 100 hostages and many Palestinian prisoners. And now we have a longer period. But there is concern that, you know, maybe Netanyahu or maybe Israel is not interested in going past the first stage. I know hostage families are worried about that. And yeah, so I think that that's a big question for me.

[Ryan Knudsen]

That's all for today. Thursday, January 16th. The Journal is a co production of Spotify and the Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode by Rory Jones. Summer Said, Jared Malson and Shandi Rice. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.

[Tim Higgins]

Every day, Wall Street Journal reporters talk with the most powerful, influential, and interesting people. And now we're bringing some of those conversations directly to you. I'm Tim Higgins.

[Christopher Mims]

And I'm Christopher Mims. We're teaming up to ask tough questions of the leaders behind the bold name companies found in the pages of the Journal every day. Are you going to build that $20,000 vehicle?

[Ryan Knudsen]

No, because that market sucks.

[Tim Higgins]

Check out bold names in the tech news briefing feed from the Wall Street Journal.