Podcast Summary: The Journal – "Abortion Was A Winning Issue – Just Not for Kamala Harris"
Release Date: November 12, 2024
Introduction
In the November 12, 2024 episode of The Journal, hosts Jessica Mendoza and Laura Casisto delve into the complex dynamics surrounding abortion rights during the recent election cycle. Titled "Abortion Was A Winning Issue – Just Not for Kamala Harris," the episode explores why, despite abortion rights proving to be a popular and mobilizing issue, Vice President Kamala Harris did not secure the anticipated support for her campaign.
Harris Campaign's Emphasis on Abortion Rights
The episode opens with Jessica Mendoza highlighting Vice President Kamala Harris's strong stance on abortion rights during her campaign. [00:05] Jessica states, "On the campaign trail, one issue Vice President Kamala Harris leaned into was abortion rights." Laura Casisto elaborates on this strategy, explaining that Harris aimed to energize voters who were outraged by the rollback of reproductive freedoms:
"Harris was a very articulate spokeswoman for these women who had not been able to get care for, women who were sort of outraged at the rollback of their rights."
— Laura Casisto [00:12]
The Harris campaign invested heavily in advertising across swing states, focusing on the message that restoring nationwide access to abortion was imperative. One poignant ad featured Hadley Duvall from Kentucky, sharing her traumatic experience of sexual abuse and unintended pregnancy at age 12. [00:48]
Impact of Overturning Roe v. Wade
The discussion then shifts to the broader political landscape following President Donald Trump's appointment of three conservative justices, which led to the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June 2022. Laura Casisto underscores the unprecedented nature of this constitutional rollback:
"Roe v. Wade is overturned in June 2022, and the rollback of a constitutional right is unprecedented."
— Laura Casisto [04:03]
This decision set the stage for various state-level ballot measures aimed at either protecting or restricting abortion rights, significantly influencing voter behavior and campaign strategies.
Ballot Measures: 2022 Midterms and 2024 Election
Jessica Mendoza recaps the success of abortion rights measures in the 2022 midterms, noting, [03:47], "Kansas is considered a conservative state, and so there was an expectation that abortion rights would be restricted. But when the votes came in, almost 60% of Kansans voted to keep abortion protections in place."
Laura Casisto shares her astonishment at the results:
"We were starting to see these results come in and... 57, 58, 59% of Kansans pushing back on this and... expressing support for abortion rights."
— Laura Casisto [04:44]
The momentum continued into the 2024 election, with Michigan, Kentucky, Vermont, Arizona, and Nevada also voting to protect abortion rights. Despite these victories, the anticipated boost to Democratic candidates, including Harris, did not materialize. [10:07]
Voter Behavior: Support for Abortion Rights vs. Party Affiliation
A critical revelation discussed is the divergence between support for abortion rights and party loyalty. Laura Casisto points out that many voters supported abortion rights irrespective of their political affiliations:
"A lot of people, millions of people, voted for abortion rights and also for Donald Trump."
— Laura Casisto [11:08]
This split-ticket voting phenomenon is exemplified by voters like Aaron Turner from Missouri, who simultaneously supported Trump and endorsed abortion rights, viewing it as an issue of personal freedom rather than party alignment. [11:23]
Trump’s Strategy on the Abortion Issue
The episode analyzes former President Trump's approach to the abortion debate. Unlike Harris, Trump chose not to take a definitive stance on abortion, instead leaving the decision to individual states. Laura Casisto explains:
"He was going to just say, I'm not going to take a position on this. This is up to the states."
— Laura Casisto [08:07]
This strategic ambiguity allowed Trump to attract voters who supported abortion rights while maintaining his conservative base, effectively neutralizing Harris's concentrated efforts on the issue.
Reactions from Voters: Split Ticket Voting
The concept of split-ticket voting is further explored, with many voters compartmentalizing their choices based on different issues. For instance, some viewers expressed that while they support abortion rights, other issues like the economy or immigration held greater sway in their voting decisions. Laura Casisto categorizes voters into two groups:
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Supporters of Abortion Rights with Diverse Priorities: These voters approve of abortion access but prioritize other issues when casting their ballots.
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Passionate Abortion Rights Advocates: Despite their strong stance on abortion, they may still support candidates like Trump who assure them that abortion will remain a state issue.
"Abortion was a kind of freedoms issue... I don't have the capacity or I believe the right to weigh in on every single decision."
— Anonymous Voter [11:41]
Analysis of Ballot Measures Results
The episode reviews the outcomes of the abortion ballot measures, noting that out of ten states, seven upheld abortion rights. Specific states like Arizona and Nevada, pivotal swing states, passed their measures convincingly. However, Florida narrowly failed due to an unusually high 60% threshold for approval, despite 57% voters deeming in favor. Laura Casisto reflects:
"Putting Democrats aside for now, but for abortion rights groups, I think this remains a winning strategy."
— Laura Casisto [14:19]
Future Implications for Abortion Rights Campaigns
Looking ahead, Laura Casisto discusses the sustainability and future of abortion rights as a political issue. While current ballot measures have been largely successful, questions arise regarding whether abortion will continue to dominate national discourse or become a secondary issue overshadowed by topics like the economy and immigration. Laura is optimistic about the continued effectiveness of state-level efforts but remains cautious about their integration into broader national campaigns.
"Abortion rights is still a kind of key political issue, but that it was a pretty wild campaign with some other also very big issues that resonate with voters like the economy and immigration."
— Laura Casisto [17:00]
Additionally, concerns about access to abortion pills by mail highlight ongoing challenges if federal policies shift, potentially restricting access even in states that currently protect abortion rights.
Conclusion
The episode concludes by emphasizing the complexity of voter behavior and the interplay between single-issue support and broader political affiliations. While abortion rights have proven to be a resilient and popular issue, their ability to translate into widespread political victories for candidates like Kamala Harris remains limited due to the multifaceted nature of voter priorities and strategic campaign approaches by opposing candidates like Donald Trump.
“I don't get a sense that it's losing steam, I think, because you still saw so many ballot measures win, because all of the polling I see still says that this is popular...”
— Laura Casisto [17:00]
Overall, The Journal provides insightful analysis into the electoral dynamics of abortion rights, illustrating that while the issue remains potent, its impact on electoral outcomes is nuanced and influenced by broader political strategies and voter segmentation.